Mid-band spectrum geographical licensing approaches

Transcription

1 . Final reprt fr CTIA Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches July 2018 David Abecassis, Janette Stewart, Michael Kende, Chris Nickersn Ref:

2 Cntents 1 Executive summary Overview: mid-band 5G spectrum release Cmparisn f gegraphical licencing appraches Cnclusins 7

3 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches Cpyright Analysys Masn Limited has prduced the infrmatin cntained herein fr CTIA. The wnership, use and disclsure f this infrmatin are subject t the Cmmercial Terms cntained in the cntract between Analysys Masn Limited and CTIA. Analysys Masn Limited Nrth West Wing, Bush Huse Aldwych Lndn WC2B 4PJ UK Tel: +44 (0) lndn@analysysmasn.cm Registered in England and Wales N

4 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches 1 1 Executive summary In April 2018, Analysys Masn published a reprt (the 5G readiness reprt 1 ) fr CTIA, describing 5G spectrum and infrastructure plicies in leading markets arund the wrld. We benchmarked the situatin in the US t that in nine ther cuntries, specifically: Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, Singapre, Suth Krea, and the UK. This latest reprt builds n the earlier 5G readiness reprt, exclusively fcusing n mid-band spectrum fr 5G, examining in particular gegraphic licensing appraches. In this analysis, we have extended ur benchmark cuntries t include Australia, Spain and Sweden. The reprt structure and key findings are as fllws: Sectin 1.1 prvides an updated, high-level verview f the plans identified in each f ur benchmark cuntries fr releasing mid-band spectrum fr 5G. The US is cnsidering the MHz and MHz ranges, thugh plans are currently at a preliminary stage. The mst develped plans are in the MHz range (the CBRS band), in which spectrum will be made available thrugh a three-tiered sharing arrangement. Key Finding: The US sharing apprach in 3.5GHz differs frm all ur benchmark cuntries, which have develped plans fr exclusive assignment t mbile. Sectin 1.2 cmpares the gegraphical licensing apprach being cnsidered fr the CBRS band in the US with the appraches adpted (r prpsed) in ur benchmark cuntries. Key Findings: The majrity f leading markets are planning t (r are expected t) release midband spectrum fr 5G n a natinal basis (r predminantly n a natinal basis). In the tw cuntries adpting a reginal apprach, thse license areas will cver a significantly larger ppulatin per license cmpared t the US census tract prpsal. In fact, the mst granular set f regins previusly defined fr purpses f spectrum allcatin (Canada s Tier 4, which cnsists f 172 lcalized service areas) cver ppulatins arund 50 times larger (n average) than in the ptential US census tract apprach. Furthermre, the average gegraphical area f Canada s Tier 4 service areas are ver 400 times larger than the US census tracts; if the licensing size in Canada was a baseball field, including utfield, the US census tract prpsal wuld be smaller than the pitcher s mund. 1 Glbal race t 5G spectrum and infrastructure plans and pririties. We refer t this reprt as the 5G readiness reprt. See

5 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches Overview: mid-band 5G spectrum release Mid-band 5G spectrum release in the US The FCC is in the prcess f releasing the citizens bradband radi service (CBRS) band ( MHz) fr shared wireless bradband use. Usage is expected t initially fcus n LTE, but the band is als being cnsidered fr the implementatin f 5G 2. The band is gverned by a three-tier authrizatin framewrk that allws cmmercial users t share spectrum with existing federal and nn-federal users: Tier 1 cnsists f incumbent users (primarily the US military), which have tp pririty. Tier 2 rganizatins can be granted pririty access licenses (PALs) fr a fee. A maximum f seven PALs, each 10MHz in size, will be licensed in any given gegraphical area. Use f these bands can be pre-empted by Tier 1 users. Tier 3 users have general authrized access (GAA) pprtunistic use f any available blck f the MHz band withut a defined license term. These users must accept interference frm Tier 1 and 2 users. The FCC is als cnsidering use f the GHz range fr 5G, and the NTIA has identified 100MHz ( MHz) fr ptential repurpsing t cmmercial wireless. Hwever, plans fr these bands are currently in preliminary stages. Mid-band 5G spectrum release in rest f wrld In the rest f the wrld, mid-band 5G spectrum plans are als being develped, with several cuntries at an advanced stage with these plans. A summary f the plans in each f ur benchmark cuntries is shwn in Figure 1.1 belw: Figure 1.1: Mid-band spectrum release plans in benchmark cuntries [Surce: Analysys Masn, 2018] Cuntry Details Australia Australia has planned an auctin f spectrum in the MHz range fr Octber Canada An auctin f spectrum in the MHz range is expected in late Canada is als seeking preliminary cmments n use f the MHz and MHz bands fr 5G. China 500MHz f spectrum (within GHz and GHz) will be released in China, with the GHz range subject t indr use. Details have nt been specified, but assignment is expected in 2018/19 in line with cmmercial launch timelines. Reprts als indicate that China is likely t assign the GHz range t 5G use in the future, subject t crdinatin with existing satellite uses. 2 See, fr example, Mbile%203.5%20GHz%20Petitin%20fr%20Rulemaking%20--% %20--% pdf

6 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches 3 Cuntry Details France 40MHz f 3.4GHz spectrum ( MHz) is t be reserved fr fixed wireless access (FWA) use in currently underserved areas (with an additinal 10MHz ( MHz) in certain areas). An auctin f the remaining spectrum in the MHz range is expected in 2018/19. ARCEP expects 300MHz f cntiguus spectrum t be available fr 5G by 2020, and 340MHz (390MHz in areas with n FWA) by Germany Germany 3 plans t award a ttal f 400MHz ( GHz) in early Japan Japan has already assigned 40MHz f unpaired spectrum t each f the cuntry s three MNOs (in the GHz range) n a natinal basis. Japan aims t release up t 500MHz f spectrum within the GHz and GHz ranges by March 2019 We understand that Japan is als currently in the prcess f 4 releasing spectrum in the GHz range Russia 5G spectrum assignment plans are unclear, with the gvernment s 5G radmap scheduling a frmal decisin regarding spectrum t be made in Hwever, the SCRF has allcated test licenses in the GHz range t sme peratrs. Singapre The IMDA s G cnsultatin states that the regulatr is explring the pssibility f assigning spectrum frm the GHz band fr mbile use. Suth Krea Suth Krea auctined 280MHz f spectrum in the MHz range n a natinal basis in June Spain Three f Spain s MNOs currently wn 2x20MHz natinal licenses in the 3.4GHz band. Spain is planning t auctin spectrum in the MHz range in July Sweden Sweden 5 plans t award a ttal f 400MHz mid-band spectrum ( GHz) in UK UK MNO Three already hlds natinal licenses in the MHz, MHz, MHz and MHz ranges MHz f spectrum frm the GHz band was auctined in April The UK anticipates awarding spectrum in the GHz band in 2019; the spectrum is expected t be deplyed in many areas frm arund 2020, and natinwide by The GHz range is a candidate band fr enhanced spectrum sharing. US See discussin abve 3 Each f the three MNOs in Germany currently has been assigned 42MHz f spectrum in the 3.4GHz band n a natinwide basis. Licenses expire at end The exact current status f the band is unclear. The MIC had previusly annunced its intentin t release the spectrum by March Hwever, n April 6, 2018, the MIC annunced that, based n a reprt frm the Radi Regulatry Cuncil, it plans t designate the GHz range t Sftbank and the GHz range t NTT DOCOMO. See and 5 Tw MNOs in Sweden wn natinal 2x20MHz licenses in the GHz band: TDC Sverige (wned by Tele2) ( MHz, MHz) and B2 Bredband (wned by Telenr) ( MHz, MHz). These licenses are technlgy and service neutral and expire in December UK peratr UK Bradband prvided LTE TDD FWA services in specific lcatins f the UK, using its natinal license in the / MHz range. The peratr was bught by UK MNO Three in early The spectrum held by UK Bradband als includes a natinal license in the / MHz range, which has previusly been used nly fr fixed (pint-t-pint/pint-t-multipint) links. Three has applied t Ofcm fr a change f use f its 3.6GHz spectrum (changing frm fixed t mbile use); Ofcm is cnsulting n this at the mment and we understand that it is likely t apprve Three s request. See

7 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches 4 In cntrast t the three-tiered spectrum-sharing CBRS band in the US, all ther cuntries assessed fr this reprt have predminantly 7 cmmitted t an exclusive licensing apprach fr mid-band 5G spectrum, within the parts f the bands being released fr 5G use Cmparisn f gegraphical licencing appraches There are three main appraches that can be used in the gegraphical licensing f spectrum: Natinal licensing Reginal licensing Cmbinatin f natinal and reginal licensing Belw we cmpare the apprach being cnsidered by the US in the CBRS band with the apprach adpted (r under cnsideratin) in the rest f ur benchmark cuntries. Gegraphical licensing apprach in the US Spectrum auctins in the US have histrically been cnducted n a reginal basis. 9 Varius reginal breakdwns have been used, including Partial Ecnmic Areas (PEAs) and Cellular Market Areas (CMAs). 10 In fact, the FCC began its cellular licensing regime using 734 CMAs, then scaled-up t using 491 Basic Trading Areas (BTAs) and 52 Majr Trading Areas (MTAs) in the Persnal Cmmunicatins Service (PCS) prceeding, befre adpting 176 Ecnmic Areas (EAs) and 52 Majr Ecnmic Areas (MEAs), and then six Ecnmic Area Grupings and 12 Reginal Ecnmic Area Grupings acrss a variety f ther wireless services. All f these license areas are significantly larger than the ~ census tracts initially prpsed fr PALs licensing. 11 The reginal breakdwn t be adpted fr the CBRS PALs has been the subject f significant debate, which was nging at the time f prducing this reprt. The FCC riginally prpsed that PALs wuld be licensed by census-tract, with an average ppulatin f ~4400. By cntrast, the larger license areas the FCC has used fr ther services, which range frm an average ppulatin f ~ per CMA t ~ per PEA, r even mre in the case f MTAs and MEAs, are all far larger than the average census tract. Hwever, in Octber 2017, the FCC requested cmment n alternatives that wuld increase the license size f PALs, including PEAs amng ther ptins Sme cuntries (ther than the US) have als explred spectrum sharing in the mid-band in cnnectin with 5G (fr example the GHz band in the UK). 8 Sme spectrum available fr exclusive 5G use depends n crdinatin f spectrum with existing satellite uses f the spectrum 9 See 10 See 11 See 12 See

8 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches 5 Gegraphical licensing apprach in rest-f-wrld Spain and Suth Krea have bth cnfirmed that mid-band spectrum fr 5G will be licensed fr 5G use n a natinwide basis. Germany and Sweden will adpt a hybrid apprach, with a mix f natinally and reginally available spectrum. Hwever, in bth cuntries, the bulk f available midband spectrum ( GHz) will be assigned n a natinwide basis, with anther 100MHz ( GHz) available n a reginal licensing basis. A number f ur benchmark cuntries have nt yet finalized details regarding the licensing apprach they will adpt. Hwever, in several cases, we expect natinwide licenses will be used, based n ur understanding f the usual appraches t mbile licensing in these markets. Examples include Singapre (which is a city-state), France (a fur-peratr market, where spectrum in the lwer part f the C-band has already been assigned in certain areas) and the UK (where natinwide licensing was used in the recent 3.4GHz auctin). Current mbile licensing is exclusively n a natinwide basis in bth China and Japan, while Russia has used bth natinwide and reginal licenses. In the tw remaining cuntries, Australia and Canada, reginal licensing is expected. Like the US, Australia and Canada are large gegraphies which have histrically made licenses available n a reginal basis. 13 Hwever, the regins that will be used fr the release f mid-band spectrum are likely t be significantly larger than many f thse ptins prpsed in the US. Australia released a cnsultatin n the MHz band in May 2018, specifying 14 gegraphical regins fr assignment (6 metrplitan areas and 8 reginal areas ). Canada has nt yet cnfirmed gegraphical licensing arrangements; hwever, the regulatr has previusly defined three different reginal-breakdwns fr use in spectrum assignment, the mst granular f which cnsists f 172 areas. The gegraphical licensing arrangements fr the upcming assignment f 5G spectrum in each f ur benchmark cuntries is summarised in Figure 1.2 belw. 13 There are a handful f exceptins in Australia, including the multi-band 700MHz and 2600MHz auctin in 2013, and the auctin f previusly un-sld 700MHz lts in 2017.

9 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches 6 Figure 1.2: Gegraphical licensing arrangements fr the upcming assignment f 5G spectrum in benchmark cuntries [Surce: Analysys Masn, 2018] Cuntry Gegraphical licensing arrangement Further details Australia Large reginal Spectrum will be assigned in a ttal f 14 regins: 6 Metr areas and 8 Reginal areas. The average ppulatin per regin is ~1.7 millin. Canada China France Germany Japan (Likely t be large reginal) (Likely t be natinal) (Likely t be natinal) Natinal and large reginal (Likely t be natinal) Details nt yet released. Expected t be reginal based n previus auctins, which have either used Tier 2, Tier 3 r Tier 4 service areas : Tier 2 14 prvincial and large reginal service areas Tier 3 59 smaller reginal service areas Tier lcalised service areas The average ppulatin f Tier 2, 3 and 4 service areas in 2011 was 2.1 millin, 567 thusand, and 195 thusand respectively. Current mbile licenses are natinwide, including recently awarded FDD-LTE 4G licenses, and a furth basic telecm services license t prvide natinwide Internet and data telecmmunicatins services. 14 The MIIT has designated MHz and MHz fr 5G, 15 and trials are being cnducted n a wide area basis. 16 Details nt yet released, but likely t be natinal. 300MHz ( GHz) fr natinwide use. 100MHz ( GHz) awarded n a reginal basis. Specific regins yet t be cnfirmed. In the previus GHz (BWA) auctin in 2006, Germany was divided int 28 regins. Current mbile licenses are natinwide, as well as the licenses in the MHz band. 17 Russia Current mbile licenses are a mixture f natinwide and reginal. Singapre (Likely t be natinal) Suth Krea Natinal Cnfirmed by regulatr. Spain Natinal Cnfirmed by regulatr Licensing is extremely likely t be natinal: Singapre is a small city-state. Sweden Natinal and reginal 300MHz ( GHz) fr natinwide use. 100MHz ( GHz) awarded n a reginal basis and 15 See 16 China s State Centre f Radi Regulatin website suggests that the mid-band spectrum is being made available natinally fr 5G, but with sme restrictins in certain gegraphical lcatins where earth statins are perating. See 17 See

10 Mid-band spectrum gegraphical licensing appraches 7 Cuntry UK Gegraphical licensing arrangement (Likely t be natinal) Further details Specific regins yet t be cnfirmed. We nte that municipalities have been used in previus GHz auctins; as f end , there were 290 municipalities in Sweden with an average ppulatin f ~35,000. Details nt yet released, but likely t be natinal (as was the case in the recent 3.4GHz auctin). US Reginal See discussin abve. Pssible license areas include census tracts, cunties, PEAs, CMAs (r cmbinatins theref). 1.3 Cnclusins The majrity f the cuntries assessed in this reprt are expected t use natinal licensing in the assignment f mid-band spectrum. These cuntries include China, France, Japan, Singapre, Suth Krea, the UK, and Spain, with Germany and Sweden using a mix f natinal and reginal licenses. In additin t the US, tw ther large gegraphies (Australia and Canada) typically use large reginal licensing. In Australia, the regulatr has prpsed 14 regins with an average ppulatin f ~1.7m per regin, as many peple as live in Phenix, AR r Philadelphia, PA, r the entire state f New Hampshire. In Canada, fficial details have nt yet been released. Hwever, the mst granular set f regins previusly defined fr purpses f spectrum allcatin in Canada cnsists f 172 areas, with an average ppulatin f ~195,000 per area. In cntract, each f the US ~74,000 census tracts cntains arund 4,400 peple (a factr f arund 50 less). If the ppulatin cverage in Canada crrespnded t the cmbined ppulatin f Califrnia and Texas, the ppulatin cverage f the prpsed US census tracts wuld crrespnd t less than the ppulatin f Hawaii. In terms f ppulatin cverage, the Canadian and Australian licensing regimes fr mid-band spectrum are therefre mre similar t using larger regins in the CBRS band in the US (such as PEAs, CMAs, cunties r sme cmbinatin theref), than the much smaller US census tracts. 18 See