U.S. Small Cells Total Addressable Market, : Sizing a Growing Opportunity

Transcription

1 U.S. Small Cells Ttal Addressable Market, : Sizing a Grwing Opprtunity Market Study First Quarter, 2013

2 U.S. Small Cell Ttal Addressable Market, : Sizing a Grwing Opprtunity A Market Study Published First Quarter, 2013 Versin 1.0 Reprt Number: 1Q IGR W. Hwy 71 Suite 350 PMB 341 Austin TX 78738

3 Table f Cntents Abstract...1 Executive Summary...3 Table A: U.S. Small Cell Ttal Addressable Market, Figure A: U.S. Small Cell Ttal Addressable Market, Metrcells... 4 Figure B: U.S. Metrcell Ttal Addressable Market, Piccells... 5 Figure C: U.S. Piccell Ttal Addressable Market, Femtcells... 7 Figure D: U.S. Residential Femtcell Ttal Addressable Market, Figure E: Cmparing U.S. Femtcell Installed Base Frecasts (000s), Methdlgy...10 Cnsumer Survey Residential Femtcell Ttal Addressable Market Calculatin Rising Demand fr Mbile Data...12 Figure 1: Glbal mbile data usage per mnth, (TB per mnth) Estimating Mbile Data Demand Table 1: Mbile Data Traffic per Mnth per Cnnectin, Nrth America in Figure 2: Mbile Data Traffic by Type per Mnth, as Percent f Ttal (2012) Table 2: Nrth America Cnnectins per Usage Categry Figure 3: Nrth America Cnnectins per Usage Categry Table 3: Nrth America Mbile Data Usage per Cnnectin Type per Mnth (MB) Figure 4: Nrth America Mbile Data Usage per Cnnectin Type per Mnth (MB) Table 4: Ttal Nrth America Mbile Data Traffic per Categry per Mnth (TB) Figure 5: Ttal Nrth America Mbile Data Traffic per Categry per Mnth Setting the Stage fr Metrcells...20 Netwrk Pain Pints Figure 6: Target Areas fr Metr Cells Different Types f Small Cells Figure 7: One View f the Het- Net Femtcells and Piccells Tw Similar Views n Small Cells Table 5: Small Cells, accrding t Nkia- Siemens Table 6: Small Cell Cmparisn, AT&T s Antenna Slutins Grup Defining a Metrcell Figure 8: Pssible Interference Surces in a Laded Netwrk ICIC and eicic Femtcells...27 Femtcells and Piccells Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

4 Hw Femtcells Wrk Figure 9: Basic Femtcell Deplyment Figure 10: Diagram f LTE Femtcell Femtcell Use Cases Figure 11: Femtcell Use Cases Cellular Vice at Hme...33 Rating f Vice Receptin in Hme Table 7: Rating f Vice Receptin in Hme Figure 12: Rating f Vice Receptin in Hme Qualities Cnsidered in Hme Vice Receptin Rating Table 8: Qualities Cnsidered in Hme Vice Receptin Rating Figure 13: Qualities Cnsidered in Hme Vice Receptin Rating Femtcells used at hme Table 9: Existence f a Femtcell in the Hme Figure 14: Existence f a Femtcell in the Hme Cellular Data Experience Rating f Cellular Data Cverage Table 10: Rating f Cellular Data Cverage Figure 15: Rating f Cellular Data Cverage Rating f Cellular Data Speed Table 11: Rating f Cellular Data Speed Figure 16: Rating f Cellular Data Speed Imprvements t Vice Service...41 Lcatin f Vice Imprvements Table 12: Lcatin f Vice Imprvements Figure 17: Lcatin f Vice Imprvements Types f Desired Vice Imprvements Table 13: Types f Desired Vice Imprvements Figure 18: Types f Desired Vice Imprvements Piccells...44 Femtcells Piccells Tw Similar Views n Femt- /Piccells Table 14: Small Cells, accrding t Nkia- Siemens Table 15: Small Cell Cmparisn, AT&T s Antenna Slutins Grup Hw Piccells Wrk Interference Piccell Deplyments Piccell Use Cases...50 Illustrating Cncentrated Mbile Data Demand Imprvements t Vice Service Lcatin f Vice Imprvements Table 16: Lcatin f Vice Imprvements, Persnal vs. Wrk Users Figure 19: Lcatin f Vice Imprvements Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

5 Types f Desired Vice Imprvements Table 17: Types f Desired Vice Imprvements Figure 20: Types f Desired Vice Imprvements Actual Piccell Use Case Table 18: Cst f Orange France Piccell Buildings in the U.S Table 19: Buildings in the U.S., Figure 21: Buildings in the U.S., Table 20: Number f Flrs per Building Figure 22: Number f Flrs per Building Table 21: Wrkers per Building Categry Figure 23: Wrkers per Building Categry Table 22: Buildings per Flr Space Categry Figure 24: Buildings per Flr Space Categry Table 23: Flr Space by Principal Building Activity Figure 25: Flr Space by Principal Building Activity Table 24: Number f Buildings in the Office Categry, by Flr space Figure 26: Number f Buildings in the Office Categry, by Flr Space Calculating the Ttal Addressable Market fr Metrcells...66 TAM: Methdlgy Overview TAM: Detailed Methdlgy Estimating Supply/Capacity Estimating Demand Metrcell TAM G Metrcells Table 25: U.S. 3G Metrcell TAM, Figure 27: U.S. 3G Metrcell TAM, G Metrcells Table 26: U.S. 4G Metrcell TAM, Figure 28: U.S. 4G Metrcell TAM, Table 27: U.S. Metrcell TAM, 3G & 4G Cmbined, Figure 29: U.S. Metrcell TAM, 3G & 4G Cmbined, Figure 30: U.S. Ttal Metrcell TAM, 3G & 4G Cmbined, Femtcell: Ttal Addressable Market Frecast...75 Cre Assumptins Sizing the Femtcell TAM Table 28: U.S. Femtcell Ttal Addressable Market, Figure 31: U.S. Femtcell Ttal Addressable Market, Table 29: Ptential Peple Cvered by Femtcells, Figure 32: Ptential Peple Cvered by Femtcells, Frecasting the U.S. Femtcell Install Base: Tw Scenaris...80 U.S. Femtcell Frecast: Custmer Retentin Table 30: U.S. Femtcell Custmer Retentin Use Case, Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

6 Figure 33: U.S. Femtcell Custmer Retentin Use Case, U.S. Femtcell Frecast: Aggressive use fr Macr Offlad Table 31: U.S. Femtcell Aggressive Use Case fr Macr Offlad, Figure 34: U.S. Femtcell Aggressive Use Case fr Macr Offlad, Cmparing U.S. Femtcell Frecasts Figure 35: Cmparing U.S. Femtcell Frecasts (000s), Piccell: Ttal Addressable Market Frecast...85 Cre Assumptins Methdlgy Table 32: Ttal Addressable Market fr U.S. Piccells, Table 33: U.S. Piccell Ttal Addressable Market, Figure 36: U.S. Piccell Ttal Addressable Market, Figure 37: U.S. Piccell Ttal Addressable Market, Cnclusin...91 Small Cell Vendr Prfiles...92 Acme Packet Figure 38: Acme Packet Security Gateway Airspan Netwrks Airvana LLC Figure 39: Femtcell and FSM Cnfiguratin Alcatel- Lucent Argela Cisc Figure 40: Cisc Femtcell Slutin Cmpnents Ericssn Gemtek Figure 41: Gemtek IDV- Series VIP Gateway Figure 42: Gemtek WLTFSR- Series LTE Data/VIP/WiFi Gateway Hay Systems Ltd (HSL) Huawei ip.access Figure 43: ip.access Femtcell Slutin Figure 44: ip.access nangsm Slutin Juni Figure 45: Juni LTE Small Cell Slutin with JS Figure 46: Juni LTE Small Cell Slutin with JS Mindspeed Technlgies, Inc NEC Figure 47: NEC Femtcell Access Pint Management System Nkia Siemens Netwrks Pwerwave Technlgies Public Wireless PureWave Netwrks Qurtus Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

7 Ruckus Wireless Figure 48: Ruckus Wi- Fi t LTE Deplyment Transitin Figure 49: Ruckus Wi- Fi Offlad Slutin Samsung Electrnics Sercmm SpiderClud Wireless Taqua LLC Figure 50: Taqua Backhaul System Ubee- Airwalk Ubiquisys Figure 51: Ubiquisys Technlgies ZTE Crpratin Definitins General Device Types Services Netwrk Technlgy Abut IGR Disclaimer Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

8 Abstract T meet the rising demand fr mbile data, peratrs will need t pursue a multi- prnged apprach t upgrading and backfilling fr capacity and thrughput n their cellular vice/data netwrks. This apprach, which cmbines RAN upgrades, new licensed spectrum, WiFi, small cells and distributed antenna systems (DAS), is typically referred t as the hetergeneus netwrk r het- net. The small cell term is relatively new and is smetimes used in different ways. igr defines a small cell as a lw pwer prduct (relative t macrcells) that perates n licensed frequencies and functins as small, self- cntained cellular base statins. Small cells include femtcells, piccells and metrcells: Metrcells are, as cmpared t macrcells, lw pwer cell sites that perate n an peratr s licensed frequency t prvide additinal cverage and/r capacity in a given area. There are three types f metrcells: thse that perate n 3G nly, 4G nly and thse that can perate n bth. Residential femtcells are ne way mbile peratrs can imprve the quality f their subscribers cellular vice service primarily frm the standpint f creating r imprving cverage inside a hme. Mst residential femtcells deplyed in the U.S. tday were rlled ut t imprve cverage fr high- value custmers. A piccell is, in essence, a larger femtcell that is deplyed int a business r small venue. The typical piccell is physically larger than a femtcell, has a higher pwer utput (between 100 t 150 milliwatts) and, cnsequently, has a lnger range and the ability t supprt a larger area, traffic capacity and/r mre cncurrent users (between 8 t 32). This reprt discusses the pprtunity fr and frecasts the: Ttal addressable market fr metrcells fr bth 3G and 4G LTE netwrks Ttal addressable market frecast fr residential femtcells in the U.S. Ttal addressable market fr enterprise piccells in the U.S. Key questins addressed: Hw des igr define small cells in general? What are metrcells, femtcells, and piccells? Hw d metrcells, femtcells, and piccells wrk? Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

9 What are the benefits f small cells? Hw d metrcells fit int peratrs evlving netwrks? Where are metrcells, femtcells, and piccells mst likely t be lcated? What is their rle? Hw much mbile data d U.S. end users cnsume and/r demand? Hw much mbile data capacity will be required in the next five years? What are the limitatins / technical challenges surrunding small cell deplyments? What are the use cases fr metrcells, femtcells, and piccells? What is the ttal addressable market frecast fr metrcell installatins in the U.S.? What are the key elements and assumptins in igr ttal addressable market frecast fr U.S. piccells? What is the ttal addressable market frecast fr piccell installatins in the U.S.? What qualities d cnsumers cnsider when they rate the quality f the vice receptin in their hme? Hw d cnsumers rate the quality f the vice receptin in their hme? What is the ttal addressable market fr residential femtcells in the U.S.? Hw many femtcells are installed in U.S. husehlds? Hw des these aggressive and cnservative use cases impact the installed base frecast? Hw can femtcells be used t fflad macr cellular netwrk traffic? What are the frecasts fr femtcell installatin in the U.S.? Wh shuld read this reprt? Mbile peratrs Infrastructure OEMs Small cell prduct and slutin vendrs Backhaul service prviders and equipment OEMs Financial analysts and investrs. Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.

10 Quting infrmatin frm an igillttresearch publicatin: external any igillttresearch infrmatin that is t be used in press releases, sales presentatins, marketing materials, advertising, r prmtinal materials requires prir written apprval frm igillttresearch. igillttresearch reserves the right t deny apprval f external usage fr any reasn. Internal- quting individual sentences and paragraphs fr use in yur cmpany s internal cmmunicatins activities des nt require permissin frm igillttresearch. The use f large prtins r the reprductin f any igillttresearch dcument in its entirety des require prir written apprval and may have sme financial implicatins. Cpyright 2013 igillttresearch, Inc. Reprductin is frbidden unless authrized.