Vision, Key Findings, and Expectations Electronic-Photonic synergy Integration Standardization Cross-market Platforms

Transcription

1 Vision, Key Findings, and Expectations Electronic-Photonic synergy Integration Standardization Cross-market Platforms

2 30 Faculty and Research Staff, 1997 VISION: The goal of the Center is the creation of new materials, structures and architectures to enable the evolution of photonics from single, discrete devices to integrated photonic systems. Industry Consortium, 2000 Research, Roadmap, Infrastructure Aixtron Fujifilm Pirelli Analog Devices JDSU Texas Instruments Applied Materials LNL Tech Unaxis Canon NanovationTech Veeco DuPont Nortel Networks Walsin Lihwa

3 Microphotonics: Hardware for the Information Age TECHNOLOGY WORKING GROUPS Next Generation Transceiver TWG Chairs: Mike Schabel, Lucent; Dominic O Brien, University of Oxford Electronic/Photonic Convergence on Silicon TWG Chairs: Jeff Swift, Analog Devices; Jerry Bautista and Michael Morse, Intel Photonic Integration on InP TWG Chairs: Rick Clayton, Bookham; Tom Dudley, Triquint Applications for Organics in Integrated Photonic Circuits TWG Chair: Louay Eldada, Dupont Communications Technology Roadmap - Evaluate telecommunications technology - Serve as a guide for R&D investment - Analysis for a rational restructuring of the industry 1. Editorial Advisory Board - Build a consensus among the TWGs - Drive closure to document preparation - Lead formulation of an action agenda 2. Technology Working Groups (TWGs) Industry-led with the support of MIT faculty and student analyses - Gather thought leaders, from both industry and academia, to discuss technology evolution 60 participating companies and universities

4 Communications Technology Roadmap Vision, Key Findings, and Expectations 1. The future technology will be driven by electronicphotonic convergence and short (<1 km) reach interconnection. This direction will ignite a major shift in the leadership of the optical component industry from information transmission (telecom) to information processing (computing, imaging). 2. The skill set required for this path does not exist at any single institution. 3. We recommend that the Microphotonics Industry Consortium expand its focus toward the creation of the necessary competence and the recommendation of standards.

5 Electronic-Photonic Convergence PHOTONICS Driver Fiber, lasers, detectors MUX, EDFA Metro-fiber, PLC Transceiver Mph ICs FTTH Pervasive, Mph ICs Transmission Application ETDM WAN DWDM WAN Security Access SAN/LAN 1Gb/s Access 10Tb/s WAN Optical switching systems Trend Fiber Fiber pigtail Boards, Servers Optical MCM Optical Nodes ELECTRONICS Driver IC: Al/SiO 2 GaAs IC: Cu/SiO 2 InP Optical bus On-chip optical interconnects Optical switch Processing Application S/DRAM, ASIC, μproc MIMIC DSP μproc TIA Parallel processing EP signal conditioning EP signal processing Trend Yield Yield Shrink Yield Optical interconnection EP design Photonic logic timeline for commercial deployment

6 Electronic-Photonic Convergence Relative Information Capacity (bit/s) OPTICAL FIBER SYSTEMS Communication Satellites Carrier Telephony first used 12 voice channels on one wire pair Telephone lines first constructed Year Multi-channel (WDM) 10 Mb/s km Advanced coaxial and microwave systems Early coaxial cable links Single channel (ETDM) 1. Distance bandwidth product > 10 Mb/s km 2. EMI, Crosstalk, Power, Weight, Footprint are important 3. Performance Scaling controls product lifecycle

7 The End of the Roadmap: Microprocessors GHz off-chip and global clock rates 10 GHz local clock rates Low latency Low power Low crosstalk? 5000 pins 100 Tb/s on-chip 40 Tb/s off-chip ITRS 2000 Intel will obtain more computing power by stamping multiple processors on a single chip rather than straining to increase the speed of a single processor. "Classical scaling is dead," said Bernard S. Meyerson, chief technologist for IBM. "In the past, the way everyone made chips faster was to simply shrink them. NYT,

8 Component Economics I: The Differentiation Death Spiral Reduced revenue and reduced R&D investment earnings (-) - Economies of Scale - Costs - Communications and Interconnects Perceived Benefits of Optical R Product Variety - Transceiver Sales Standardization B Desire to Differentiate from Competitiors total addressable market (-) Transceiver Demand Efforts to Gain Market Share Efforts to Increase Total Market Perceived Need to Do Something - Sufficiency of Business (Or, Total Capacity Ultiliaztion) Speerschneider, MIT

9 Component Economics II: Broadband Demand Forecast Demand for Broadband Costs - - New Optical Network Build B Bit Rate * Distance POTS vs performance scaling Network Build lifecycle? Technology obsolescence? R&D to Reduce R&D to Improve Costs Performance 2e014 Total Broadband Demand Transceivers Sales Transceiver Revenue 800 M Revenue 1.75e M 1.5e M legacy dominance build complete 1.25e M 1e Time (Year) Total Broadband Demand : step 1.25e13 newtable (6-7) Total Broadband Demand : eq newtable (6-7) m*mbps m*mbps Kelic, Speerschneider, MIT Time (Year) Revenue : step 1.25e13 newtable (6-7) Revenue : eq newtable (6-7) dollars/year dollars/year

10 Vision: Communications 2015 Electronic-Photonic synergy Integration Standardization Cross-market Platforms Technology It is not a matter of optical switching It is very much a matter of fewer boxes Lower Opex: integration, fewer boxes to deploy and maintain, protocol agnostic components, performance scalability Business and Revenue Generation From people-to-people to appliance-to-appliance Human Interface: speech recognition, etc. Merging of communications, computation and imaging Transport business will transform to services: security, shared network applications, etc.

11 Emerging Markets Designing a system for 2015 Auto Server Digital Home Who will make the transceiver? What will the cost be? When will it be available? What will its performance be?

12 Building a Technology Platform Integration If not now, when? Commercialization Units Shipped (% market potential) Concept & Feasibility Development β test Timescale Commercial deployment: 20-40% of market potential

13 Optical Bus Architecture PHOTON POWER SUPPLY WDM optical I/O, clocking source Waveguide 3dB / amplifier Optcial receiver (photodetector/tia)

14 Electronic-Photonic Convergence Ge Photodetectors on Si SiO 2 Ge Si SiO 2 Responsivity (ma/w) ~50 ps response time >90% quantum efficiency! Strain-extended L-band response V p Si Ge -V 330 ma/w with 1 μm Ge 550 ma/w with 4 μm Ge 890 ma/w with AR Coating n Ge Bias Voltage (V) Cannon, Liu, Luan, Michel, MIT

15 100 GHz Third-Order Filters with 24nm FSR Popovic, Rakich, Barwicz, MIT; Gorni, Pirelli

16 High Index Contrast Amplifier Scaling Law 10 5 FOM (db/mw/cm 2 ) slope=2.6 P p =1mW G=3dB A=1mm 2 Physics of Optical Scaling Signal confinement Pump confinement Tighter bend radius Constant noise factor Index Difference Δn Performance = gain / (noise pump power area) Saini and Michel, MIT

17 Photonic Crystal Channel Waveguide optical power bus Measurement λ = 1550 nm Loss ~ 6 db/cm Loss ~ 5 db/bend for 4-μm bend radius Akiyama and Yi, MIT

18 Lessons form IrDA Laptops drove the early market; rarely used Design was the gating step, and it was independent of the user Common threads to standardization Initially, each vendor desired to establish a standard about their proprietary position The standard emerged incrementally with fast-followers adopting the best new technology, and with design emphasizing retrofit capability The killer app, corrosion protected ports for cellphone and PDA programming Specific success factors: The air link had no legacy infrastructure The air link required no alignment beyond die-attach The architectural solution had minimal design impact on systems The total addressable market was 1-10 million parts

19 Convergence Success Strategy: 2005 Infrastructure, Standardization, and Consolidation Keys to commercial market entry Performance: (Bandwidth Distance)/cost No disruption of critical applications Capital cost of upgrade < legacy sunk costs Backward compatible Complete value chain availability Skills required for adoption are available Market is an area of rapid growth

20 Convergence Success Strategy: Vision 2015 Standard component platform Common manufacturing infrastructure Productive R&D reduces development cycle Common platform across industry sectors Grow platform to $20B/yr revenue Technology obsolescence triggers sales through performance scaling

21 The Bottom Line The skill set required for this path does not exist at any single institution. We recommend that the Microphotonics Industry Consortium expand its focus toward the creation of the necessary competence and the recommendation of standards.

22 Cooperative Development Goals Materials Large area wafers, component integration compatibility Processes Tool standardization, common processes, process control, process integration Packaging Infrastructure An optical chip carrier without a permanent fiber attach Boards, backplanes, intrabox, interbox, LAN, FTTH, MAN, WAN Test Common test platform, wafer level testing, global standard test Design Common design tools, common form factors, reduce complexity, focus on functionality Methodology for electronic/photonic partitioning Photonic circuit theory to support appropriate simulation tools