Photonique sur silicium: Tendances et perspectives de marché

Transcription

1 From Technologies to Market Photonique sur silicium: Tendances et perspectives de marché Eric MOUNIER, YOLE DEVELOPPEMENT 2017

2 FIELDS OF EXPERTISE Yole Développement s 30 analysts operate in the following areas Photonics Imaging MEMS & Sensors RF Devices & Techno. Displays MedTech LED Manufacturing Compound Semi. Power Electronics Batteries / Energy Management Advanced Packaging 2

3 A GROUP OF COMPANIES M&A operations Due diligences Innovation and business maker Market, technology and strategy consulting Manufacturing costs analysis Teardown and reverse engineering Cost simulation tools IP analysis Patent assessment 3

4 OUR GLOBAL ACTIVITY 4

5 SILICON PHOTONICS APPLICATIONS EXAMPLES OF PLAYERS POSITIONING High Volumes Data Centres HPC Telecom (FTTH, metropolitan) Commercial products Low Volumes Commercial products Commercial products Aeronautics/ aerospace Sensors Autonomous cars A 110-channel wavelength selector developed for the European Space Agency (VTT). Genalyte bio sensor. MIT Lidar using SiPh 5

6 SILICON PHOTONICS LANDSCAPE (NON EXHAUSTIVE) University labs, research institutes, industrial companies a whole eco system is setting up Silicon Photonics 2017 report 6

7 $M HOW "TRADITIONAL" TELCO COMPANIES ARE FACING TOUGH COMPETITION FROM CLOUD PROVIDERS (SOURCE: JEFFERIES LLC, OFC 2016) In 2-3 years, investments from the top 5 cloud providers are likely to match the investments of the top 5 service providers Driven by exponential data growth, both industries are investing, and cloud providers are becoming a threat to traditional service providers. Large webcoms progressively control the game in the photonics industry - not only in data centers but also metro, and possibly for the long haul. $60,000 Financial Overview $50,000 In 2016, the top 5 service providers will spend only $9B more than the top 5 cloud providers $40,000 $30,000 In 2007, the top 5 service providers spent $41B more than the top 5 cloud providers $20,000 CAGR ( E) Top 5 Service providers: 3% Top 5 Cloud providers: 27% $10,000 $ E Top 5 Service Providers (T, VZ, S, TMUS, CTL) Top 5 Cloud Providers (GOOGL, FB, AAPL, AMZN, MSFT) 7

8 SI PHOTONICS PRODUCTS MANUFACTURERS ROADMAP The first Si photonics products were introduced by Bookham in 2000 SiPh players in production today From , only two players shipped SiPh products. Data centers were not yet struggling with increasing data congestion and more to come / Year that Si photonics products are introduced on the market 8

9 SILICON PHOTONICS - THE BEST FROM BOTH WORLDS (ELECTRONICS & PHOTONICS) There are two different approaches for SiPh: Optical approaches (with CD in the range of 3 µm) IC players (with CD in the range of 0,35-1,5µm): for IC players, a new trend is to go zero change which means manufacturing optical components without making any changes to a CMOS process. However, electronics and optics do not share the same critical dimensions, i.e.: Luxtera uses 0.35µm WG, which could be the best compromise from a CMOS manufacturing standpoint. Kotura/Mellanox uses 3 µm WG width, which could be the best compromise from a photonics standpoint. Si photonics waveguide behavior is dependent on the dimensions: nm Critical electrical components are much smaller process nodes, i.e. 28 nm Combining Si photonics processing with 2.5D processing can benefit a typical interposer process (i.e. 90 nm) for optical components Regarding wafer size, 300 mm brings more cost benefits than 200 mm Players developing Zero Change approach. IC APPROACH OPTICS APPROACH WG width (µm) Towards easier manufacturing (less topography) Towards higher signal power Silicon Photonics 2017 report 9

10 EXCITEMENT IS HIGH BUT IT IS STILL A MODEST MARKET Acacia capitalization exceeded $1.7B (Oct 2016) The total of private funding + acquisition total is more than $3B over past 5 years But the 2016 Silicon Photonics market value was less than $150M Photonics & SiPh transactions ~$3B 2017 SiPh revenues < $150M 10

11 CONCLUSIONS Photonics technologies is today driven by GAFAMs. Today s chip market value is still small, but more players are coming: After 16 years of development, Intel has successfully penetrated this application It shares the current market with Luxtera, leader number 1. New startups and more and more products reaching the market. Encouraging signs in terms of growing investments from the VC community. Si photonics is at the maturity level of the electronics industry in the 80-90s. There are still challenges to overcome: laser source, packaging, design, supply chain, manufacturability. Besides Data Centres, some interesting applications could follow. 11

12 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 12