2011 inemi TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP AND ITS PLACE IN FULFILLING THE inemi MISSION

Transcription

1 2011 inemi TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP AND ITS PLACE IN FULFILLING THE inemi MISSION Chuck Richardson, inemi CARTS International March 26, 2012 Bally s Resort Las Vegas, Nevada

2 Agenda inemi Overview Roadmap Methodology & Scope Medical Product Highlights Passive Component Highlights Roadmap Summary Summary Overall Q & A 1

3 About inemi Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future. 5 Key Deliverables: Technology Roadmaps Collaborative Deployment Projects Research Priorities Documents Proactive Forums Position Papers 4 Major Focus Areas: Miniaturization Environment Energy Medical Electronics International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (inemi) is an industry-led consortium of 99 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations, government agencies and universities. Working on advancing manufacturing technology since Visit us at 2

4 Global Operations inemi is headquartered in Herndon, Virginia, USA. Opened an office in Shanghai and added a team member in Europe in Dr. Haley Fu is leading operations in Asia, based in Shanghai, China. Grace O Malley is representing inemi in Europe from her base in Ireland.

5 Unique Attributes of the inemi Consortium Strong Global Membership accompanied by a mission that focuses on identifying global manufacturing challenges Delivery of a total industry set of priorities every two years: A Technical Plan that defines key collaborative opportunities and gaps in the 1-5 year horizon A set of Research priorities for the 5-10 year horizon A proven methodology for effective pre competitive collaboration. Ability to execute an integrated supply chain approach on solving complex manufacturing and systems integration issues. A growing reputation as a proactive, leading organization in the environment and sustainability arena. 4

6 Methodology Available to Market Place Competitive Solutions Technology Evolution Government Roadmap Research Product Needs Disruptive Technology Academia Global Industry Participation GAP Analysis Technology Plan Research Priorities No Work Required inemi Members Collaborate Projects Industry Solution Needed 5

7 International Members Across The Total Supply Chain (Q311) The International Membership Incorporated Location; Number of Members INEMI Member Business Type North Asia Europe Totals America Region OEM ODM/EMS (inc. pkg. & test services) Material Suppliers Equipment Suppliers Universities & Research Institutes Organizations/consulting Totals Key Observations: New members joining to participate in Environmental and Packaging Projects and in collaborative R&D opportunities 170% Growth in Europe Since 1/1/2010; 60% Industry Growth Overall 160% Growth in University/Research Institutes Since 1/1/2010 Total Global Supply Chain Integration 6

8 Why Organizations Participate in inemi Opportunity to broaden your organization s engagement in the industry Better anticipate technology trends & inflexion points Collaborate with key players, industry experts, customers and suppliers, globally in all major markets Get access to learning and knowledge experts within inemi members Help influence and create industry-standard solutions that lead to competitive and best in class products and product attributes Help guide and benefit from industry innovation and funded research 7

9 Motivation to Participate in Collaborative Projects Cost Reduction by leveraging resources Typically in the 8X to 20x range on key projects and thrusts: Reduce resource demands and $ investments for each company. Ensure technology readiness when required. Projects can result in cost reduction (ex. Copper wire bonding). Reduce risk of technology introduction Reliability Hard to measure the negative impact of poor reliability, but can be disastrous. Source of supply Also hard to apply general cost impact numbers to being late to market Can also be huge. 8

10 Membership 3/2/12

11 OEM/ODM/EMS Members 10

12 Supplier Members 11

13 Supplier Members PWB Supply Chain 12

14 Association/Consortium, Government, Consultant & University Members pinfa 13

15 inemi Areas of Critical Mass Leading OEMs & Semiconductors IBM HP Dell Lenovo Intel Microsoft Delphi RIM Cisco Huawei Alcatel Lucent Juniper Networks Many Medical OEM s Packaging Firms STATS ChipPAC Amkor ASE Group ODM/EMS firms Celestica Quanta Sanmina SCI Plexus Flextronics Foxconn Test Firms Agilent Asset Corelis TRI Teradyne Chemical/Adhesives/Metals - Dow -- Nippon - Inventec -- Heraeus - Henkel - Indium Laminate/substrate suppliers Ibiden Samsung Electro Mechanics Co NGK/NTK Rogers Doosan Multek ITEQ Nanya Shengyi Sci. Tech. Endicott Interconnect Tech. Elec & Eltek Dyconex AT&S 14

16 Board of Directors Directors Dr. Nasser Grayeli, Exec VP of TMG; Director of Corp Q & R, Intel Chairman Dr. Marc Benowitz, Director, Reliability & Eco-Env Eng, Alcatel-Lucent Dr. B.J. Han, Exceutive VP & CTO, STATS ChipPAC Kevin Keller Chief Engineer, Mfg. Eng & Customer Sat., Delphi Kim Hyland, Sr. Director of Mfg. Operations Eng., Cisco Systems Dr. Sundar Kamath, Senior VP Customer Eng & Technology, Sanmina-SCI Dr. Jean-Luc Pelissier, CEO, CBA Group LLC Rob Shaddock, CTO, Senior VP, Tyco Electronics Michael Toben, Director, Pkg. & Finishing Technology, Dow Electronic Mtls Barbara Reed, VP, Worldwide ISC Engineering, IBM Integrated Supply Chain Ex-officio Members Bill Bader, CEO, inemi Dr. James Olthoff, Deputy Director, EEE Laboratory, NIST 15

17 Opportunities to participate in inemi Regional Steering Committees Help ensure that inemi addresses member needs in Europe & Asia Board of Directors Set strategic objectives & priorities Ensure financial ethics & responsibility Focus Area Steering Committees Drive progress on key priorities Ensure membership support Direct Roadmap Development Product Needs 6 Product Emulator Groups Technology Needs 21 Technology Working Groups Technical Committee Develop & integrate technology strategies & plans Drive/coordinate all technical activities Research Committee Stimulate research to address gaps identified by inemi roadmaps Direct Collaborative R&D The Technical Plan & Gaps are Defined By: 8 Technology Integration Groups Gap Analysis Workshop Identified Gaps Member Identified Needs

18 Roadmap Process & Scope

19 Industry Led Teams Technical Working Group Teams Develops the roadmap technology chapters Presently 21 Teams and Chapters Product Emulator Group Teams Virtual Product : future product attributes plus key cost and density drivers Presently 6 Teams and Chapters Portable / Consumer Office Systems High-End Systems Medical Products Automotive Aerospace/Defense 18

20 Methodology Available to Market Place Competitive Solutions Technology Evolution Government Roadmap Research Product Needs Disruptive Technology Academia Global Industry Participation GAP Analysis No Work Required inemi Members Collaborate Projects Industry Solution Needed 19

21 2011 Technology Working Groups (TWGs) Modeling, Simulation, and Design Connectors RF Components & Subsystems Test, Inspection & Measurement Solid State Illumination Large Area, Flexible Electronics Semiconductor Technology Photovoltaics MEMS/ Sensors Packaging & Component Substrates Passive Components Optoelectronics Thermal Management Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical) Ceramic Substrates Energy Storage & Conversion Systems Organic PCB Board Assembly Final Assembly Customer Information Management Systems Environmentally Conscious Electronics Red=Business Green=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem 20

22 Roadmap Development 2013 Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution TWGs Product Emulator Groups Semiconductor Technology Business Processes Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt. Design Technologies Modeling, Thermal, etc. Manufacturing Technologies Board Assy, Test, etc. Comp./Subsyst. Technologies Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc. 21

23 Fourteen Contributing Organizations Semiconductors Organic Printed Circuit Boards Interconnect Substrates Ceramic inemi / ITRS / MIG/PSMA Packaging TWG inemi / MIG / ITRS MEMS TWG inemi / IPC / EIPC / TPCA Organic PWB TWG inemi Passives TWG inemi Roadmap inemi Information Management TWG Supply Chain Management inemi Board Assembly TWG inemi Optoelectronics TWG inemi Mass Data Storage TWG Magnetic and Optical Storage Optoelectronics and Optical Storage 22

24 Statistics for the 2011 inemi Roadmap > 575 participants > 310 companies/organizations 18 countries from 4 continents Greater than 7 man years of resources in the development 21 Technology Working Groups (TWGs) 6 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) > 1800 pages of information Roadmaps the needs for New roadmaps on: MEMS/Sensors Energy Storage & Conversion Aerospace & Defense Over 55 long term research priorities identified And 160 short to medium term key technical gaps 23

25 Gap Analysis Leads to Technical Plan (inemi Projects) and Research Priorities Documents

26 inemi Projects/Research 22 Projects and 25 Initiatives - Projects in Definition Typical Projects have members working pre competitive collaboration 2011 Research Priorities The Project List can be viewed at: The Research Priorities Document can be downloaded at: 25

27 Sample Market Highlights of Product Emulator Groups

28 310.INemi BES Prismark LLC ELECTRONICS PRODUCTION $Bn CAAGR CAAGR Computers and Office $396 $433 $474 $500 $ % 3.6% Communications Infrastructure Equipment $157 $174 $192 $213 $ % 4.7% Consumer and Portable Electronics $298 $319 $341 $400 $ % 3.1% Automotive Electronics $105 $129 $158 $161 $ % 6.6% Medical Electronics $77 $85 $93 $103 $ % 4.5% Military and Aerospace Electronics $118 $129 $140 $151 $ % 3.8% Total Electronics Production $1,242 $1,382 $1,541 $1,679 $2, % 4.4% Note: Total includes product categories not included in inemi segmentation

29 Medical Product Sector Highlights Chairs: Fred Sporon-Fiedler, Tony Primavera, Micro Systems Eng.

30 Medical Market Background Global 65+ year old population will triple by from 516M (2009) to 1.53B (2050) 80+ year old population will increase from 40M (2009) to 219M (2050) Currently, the U.S. (for example) spends 1.75 Trillion dollars 15% of 2009 GDP 25% of GDP 2015 It is estimated that current annual spending on medical devices / electronics is 70 to 100 Billion dollars The market opportunities are large and are growing 29

31 2013 Key Attribute Spreadsheet Template 30

32 Medical Products Were Grouped Into Three Major Market Segments 1) Implanted products (devices implanted in a human body) Strict regulatory procedures Driven by battery life (low power loss) this limits the use of certain components such as DRAM due to high energy consumption Validation and traceability required Long term reliability paramount Long development cycles, primary assembly and design by OEMs 2) Portable products (devices that are easily transported) Cost parity with consumer / portables Dynamic market, needs fast response, 9 to 24 month product cycle time Mixed regulatory environment Mostly outsourced assembly and design Higher Volume; Lower Cost example diagnostic ultrasound in PDA size.. and smaller.. form factors 3) Diagnostic imaging devices and large scale equipment, e.g., MRI, CT Larger scale (often similar to servers or telecom equipment) Challenging thermal management and heat sinking Utilizes commercial off-the-shelf components, when available Development cycle is shorter than implantable Application and design well suited to EMS environment 31

33 Market Drivers in Implantable Medical Implantable therapy device modalities increasing New therapies in Cardiac Devices (4 chamber pacing/shocks) Implantable monitoring Neurostimulation therapies Opthalmic devices, deep brain stimulation etc Source: S. Kelly, MIT The average YoY growth rate for implantable products has been between 15-18% for the last 10 years, but slowing in U.S. due to regulatory shifts. Remote monitoring is becoming defacto standard. Increased demand for external wireless telemetry Example: >250,000 patients are currently enrolled in home / remote monitoring system. These systems are communication devices that interact with the implanted device and a host network system. 32

34 Leverage off Other Market Segments Implantable market reliability methods can learn from Auto & Military Learning on harsh environment reliability in shock, impact and long term low level fatigue Portables wireless medical device systems now becoming standard Personal data device transmits to medical monitoring facility and physician communication must be flawless SIP and POP in consumer products- Some learning but additional work needed to better correlate with medical product needs Imaging Systems rely heavily on high end telecom system components Displays, mass storage, wireless and hard-wire data transfer systems 33

35 Critical Gaps and Challenges Connector technologies that are highly reliable Ultra small for implantable products with automated wire attach. Also require ultra high fidelity signal properties Large geometry connectors for imaging systems with superior contact quality zero electron loss Safety and efficacy in RF traffic wireless telemetry. Different frequencies, pulse widths, etc. in medical device settings are not thoroughly addressed in international standards High reliability (10 year life minimum) PCB technologies to support high density high performance silicon in implantable major research need High performance energy storage methodologies Includes researching and refining energy harvesting the bodies thermal and motion attributes Addressing critical business issues for the medical market: Conversion to lead free solder attach technologies Simplifying regulatory and time to market challenges 34

36 Medical MEMS Applications Spread Rapidly MEMS enable dramatic new possibilities for detecting, analyzing, and manipulating biomaterials, from proteins to bacteria to blood: Disposable blood pressure and home use blood pressure monitors Implantable pressure sensors for all types of monitoring (blood, respiration, intestinal, bowel, etc) Flow Sensors for respiratory equipment, dose monitoring. Sleep apnea monitoring Silicon microphones Optical MEMS and Image sensors Micro dispensers for targeted and intelligent drug delivery Infrared temperature sensors Strain sensors, Energy Harvesting Accelerometers for hospital beds, pacemakers, defibrillators and many more!! 35

37 Passive Component Background / Highlights Chair: Ed Mikoski, ECIA Co-chair: Open

38 Connectivity is the Key to Consumer Growth Source: 2009 Estimates Morgan Stanley 37

39 Ease of Use Improvements Drive Growth User Interface + Smaller Form Factor + Lower Prices + New Services 38

40 The Consumer dominates the Market and The Market makes the decisions What does the Consumer want? Lower cost Higher performance Longer battery life Innovative features Connectivity (wireless) Smaller size Lighter weight Less heat generation Rapid availability 39

41 3D Packaging (No TSV) 3D Integration Roadmap 3D IC Integration C2C/C2W/W2W; microbump bonding; 5 TSV 30μm; 20 memory stack 50μm; 100 interposers 200μm 3D Si Integration W2W pad-pad bonding (TSV 1.5μm) 3D Stacking (wirebonds) Cu-Cu bonding PoP Mass Production CMOS image sensor with TSV CMOS image sensor with DSP and TSV Memory (50μm) with TSV and microbump 32 memory (20μm) stacked Passive TSV interposer to support highperformance chips Active TSV Interposer (e.g., Memory on Logic with TSVs) Bumpless SiO2-SiO2 bonding Low Volume Production 3D MEMS; 3D LED Mass Production Low volume production = only a handful of companies are SHIPPING it; Mass production = many companies are SHIPPING it. Bumpless Don t care to guess! Lau, 3D IC Integration PDC

42 2011 Roadmap - Passive Component Chapter Table of Contents Contents Passive Components Executive Summary Introduction Definition of Passive Configurations Types of Passive Components Situation Analysis World Market Sizes For Passive Components Business Issues Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs Cross-Cutting Issues Requirements for Portable Products Requirements for Office / Large Business Systems Requirements for Netcom Products Requirements for Automotive Products Requirements for Medical Products Requirements for System In Package (SiP) Assembly of Small Footprint Components Design, Procurement, and Manufacturing Channels Technology Trends and Needs Capacitors Resistors Magnetics Circuit Protection Components Integrated Passives Gaps and Showstoppers Recommendations on Potential Alternative Technologies Embedded Passives Embedded Capacitors Embedded Resistors Embedded Magnetics Contributors Glossary Terminology Bibliography

43 Passives Chapter Situation Analysis Passive components, resistors capacitors, inductors, and circuit protection are the highest volume components in electronic devices. These components support power management, signal conditioning, and protection of active devices. Sales of these devices are greater than $30 billion per year. The development and use of passive components are driven by cost, regulatory, and technical requirements in customer segments. Shifts in business patterns have also altered the way passive components are developed and used. Business patterns have continued to shift since the last roadmap driven by: Movement of manufacturing from original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to electronics manufacturing services (EMS), Movement of end device design from OEMs to original design manufacturers (ODMs) Movement of component manufacturing and end device manufacturing from North America, Europe, and Japan to Asia 42

44 Medical Product Sector Needs Parameter Descriptions Metric Passive Components Typical Product Family Passive Devices: State of the Art (production volume) Type/Size 0201 case 0201 case M0402 M case Embedded Passives Passives fabricated into the substrate # per sq. cm Max. Ohms State of the Art (production volume) ohms / sq M 1.2M Max. Capacitance State of the Art (production volume) μf / sq Min. % tolerance State of the Art (production volume) % 5% 5% 4% 3% 2% RF Components Typical Product Family Quality Factor State of the Art (production volume) Q Capacitance density State of the Art (production volume) nf/sq. cm Inductance req. State of the Art (production volume) nh Insertion loss maximum State of the Art (production volume) db/cm/ghz

45 Ultra thin capacitors (Murata) Dimensions mm mm Thickness 0.05mm 0.05mm Capacitance Insulation resistance Nominal voltage 0.01μF 10MΩ 4V 0.1μF 1MΩ 4V Temperature characteristics X5R X5R Available in 2 sizes: 0402 and 0201 Enables placement below ICs Typical applications: Modules (SiP), mobile phones Very thin ultra low placement force Market introduction: April

46 TWG Status Issues 2011 Issues New issues not in previous roadmap that may impact other TWGs: Stacked Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors for Power Supplies Ultra-Thin Discrete Capacitors for Emerging Embedded Technology Large Size Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitors High Voltage, High Energy, High Current Film Capacitors SMD Tantalum Caps at 200 C Continuous Operation Heavy Duty Capacitors for High Humidity Conditions Aluminum Electrolytic Capacitors for Inverter Reliability Additional detail on UltraCapacitors (Super Capacitors) 45

47 Passive TWG Major Issue Fraudulent and counterfeit parts are increasing Confounds product reliability and warrantee issues Even sub-penny parts are not immune Fear of the phenomena has altered the supply chain 46

48 Passive Component Issues Component size reduction to facilitate placing closer to semiconductor die Ability of components to meet mounting profiles for leadfree solders Ability of components to meet increased temperature, voltage, and power levels required during use The ability for current technologies to continue to drive capacitance per volume increases in discrete devices continuing ability of ceramic capacitor manufacturers to reduce dielectric thickness tantalum capacitor manufacturers to increase charge per gram without fundamental paradigm shifts in technology. The ability to decrease parasitics (ESR and ESL for capacitors) at the system level reductions of parasitics at the component level how these components are interconnected with the circuit 47

49 Passive Component Issues (Continued) Counterfeit Components Proliferation / Mediation Increasing Regulatory Environment (REACH, etc) Demands For Fail Safe Failure Modes Continued Demand For Cost Effective Embedded Components Reporting Requirements for Conflict Materials Tracking Rare Earth Material Shortages Increased Reliability in Electrolytic Capacitors for inverters 48

50 Pushing the Envelope All of these new technologies are moving very quickly. In today's world the effectiveness of an integrated supply chain approach is key Multiple nodes on the supply chain covering all aspects of design, materials, assembly, test, etc, etc Cooperative roadmap efforts of groups (such as, ECIA, MIG, inemi, IPC, TPCA and ITRS) are key to clarify timing and needs There are many/many opportunities for collaborative R&D An inemi Strength and Core Capability 49

51 Summary

52 Situation Analysis Convergence of markets is gaining speed Medical-Consumer Automotive-Entertainment Communication-Entertainment Growth of MEMs applications will escalate consumer, automotive, medical Rapid evolution of 3D packaging led by consumer markets Proactive Rare Earth Metals and Conflict Materials management are required Trends on environmental regulation growth globally Energy Storage criticality increasing: Miniaturization & battery life in consumer & medical Improvements in Automotive affects the total supply chain Growing opportunity for smart grid, solar, wind system storage 51

53 The inemi Deliverables Are Key Technology continues to move at a faster rate of change Driven in many cases by short life cycle, low cost, high volume product Many of these cool new things don t port well or quickly to high reliability markets such as automotive, medical, or high end networking We have numerous collaborative R&D projects working challenging supply chain wide issues Key deliverables from inemi were the 2011 Technical Plan (available only to members) and the 2011 Research Priorities 52

54 14 Existing Projects at End of 2011 Project name Copper Wire Bonding Reliability - Phase 2 Advanced Si-node Pb-free Underfill Reliability Eco-Impact Evaluator for ICT Equipment - Phase 2 Pb-Free Early Failure - Phase 2 Creep Corrosion - Phase 3 HFR-Free PCB Materials - Phase 2 Connector Particle Thickness Rare Earth Metals Assessment and Supply Chain Actions Boundary Scan - Structural Test of External Memory Wiring Density for Organic Packaging Substrates Pb-Free Rework Optimization, Phase 3 (Reliability Evaluation) Characterization of Pb-Free Alloy Alternatives Halogen-Free (BFR) High-Reliability PCB Pb-Free Component & Board Finish Reliability Status TV build, start test in April White paper & test plan developing Ongoing Closing 2nd experiment done, doing FA Closing, discussing future opportunity Ongoing Ongoing Starting a new phase Summarizing survey outputs On going Test ongoing Closing Closing

55 6 New Projects Launched in 2012 Board Assembly TIG Counterfeit Components Assessment Medical TIG Reliability Requirements for Implantable Medical Devices Qualification Methods for Portable Medical Products Component Specifications for Medical Products Test TIG Structural Test of External Memory Devices Addendum Manufacturing Strain Guidance for PCBAs Improving UL Certification of Laminates and PCBs Warpage Characteristics of Organic Packages

56 5 Active Initiatives Under Formation Packaging Equipment Working Group SOW in final development MEMS Initiatives MEMS Reliability Methodologies MEMS Test Methods and Capabilities Medical Initiatives Supply Chain Support for Medical Devices MRI/X-Ray Compatibility with Implantable Devices

57 At least 8 Other Proposed Initiatives Material Evaluation for Low-Loss, High Reliability Applications Rework of ultra small components, PoP Surface finish evaluations by market segment Molding Compounds for packages Underfill Materials Side to side registration of PCBs Delamination and Pad Cratering of PWBs Medical Flex

58 Summary We have 20 active projects with typically companies participating. We have: 5 initiatives in formation 8 initiatives proposed as potential new projects 6 research proposals To participate in initiatives you do not need to be an inemi member. To participate in projects you must be an inemi member 57

59 Example of a Roadmap Driven Solution The 2009 inemi Environmentally Conscious Electronics Roadmap Chapter identified a need to be proactive in identifying opportunities for the electronics industry. This resulted in a project proposal to remove potentially harmful halide additives from PCBs prior to having to react to legislation mandating action. This issue was clarified in the 2009 Technical Plan. A project proposal came forward from the inemi membership. The project is called the HFR-Free Technology Leadership Program and was divided into two subprojects: HFR- Free Materials HFR-Free Signal Integrity.

60 Example of a Roadmap Driven Solution-Continued The Signal Integrity and phase 1 of the Materials projects ran for approximately 18 months. Results were shared with the supply chain via papers and webinars. The results verified that substitute materials for halogen fire retardants are available. Offer a drop in replacement for many high frequency applications at a competitive cost. This team also provided a specific test specification for HFR-free laminate materials Worked to ensure that sufficient volume capability was being brought on line by the supply chain to effect a smooth transition There are many more examples of inemi projects that have been completed for the purpose of facilitating the unimpeded growth of the electronics supply chain. inemi typically has 20 active collaborative R&D projects at all times Each with companies working together focused on targeted results.

61 The inemi Roadmap Availability And Development 2011 inemi Roadmap Availability The 2011 inemi Roadmap CD is available for order at Individual roadmap chapters are also available as a PDF document at inemi Roadmap Development Cycle Formal start was October 21 st, 2011 at SMTAI Please contact Chuck crichardson@inemi.org for opportunities to participate We encourage you to contribute! It is a global, full supply chain, industry wide look at future technology metrics & gaps Not a requirement to be an inemi member 60

62 Be Involved!! Q&A Thank You!

63 contacts: Grace O Malley (Europe) gomalley@inemi.org Haley Fu (Asia) halfu@inemi.org Chuck Richardson (Roadmap) Chuck.richardson@inemi.org Bob Pfahl (V.P. Operations) bpfahl@inemi.org Bill Bader (CEO) Bill.bader@inemi.org 62