2007 Roadmap - Setting Technology Direction

Transcription

1 2007 Roadmap - Setting Technology Direction

2 Topics 9:00 9:15 inemi Roadmap Overview Jim McElroy, inemi 9:15 9:40 Board Assembly Jim McElroy, inemi 9:40 10:05 Packaging Roadmap Bill Bottoms, Chairman & CEO, Nano Nexus 10:05 10:20 Break 10:20 10:45 Interconnection Substrates Michael Weinhold, Technical Director EIPC 10:45 11:10 Organic and Printed Electronics Andreas Schaller, Motorola 11:10 11:35 Environmentally Conscious Electronics Nils Nissen, Fraunhofer IZM 11:35 12:00 Final Assembly Reijo Tuokko, Professor, Tampere University 1

3 Methodology Available to Market Place Competitive Solutions Technology Evolution Government Roadmap Research Product Needs Disruptive Technology Academia Global Industry Participation GAP Analysis No Work Required inemi Members Collaborate Projects Industry Solution Needed 2

4 Some Definitions PEG Product Emulator Group Virtual Product : future product attributes plus key cost and density drivers Portable / Consumer Office Systems / Large Business / Communication Systems Medical Products Automotive Defense and Aerospace TWG - Technology Working Group Develops the roadmaps Presently 19 groups of content experts TIG - Technology Integration Group Develops technical Plan Based on roadmap findings and gap analysis meetings inemi Projects are formed under TIGs 3

5 2007 Roadmap Priorities Maintain strong linkages with other roadmaps. Strengthen and realign Product Emulators. Expand regional, global roadmap meetings. Expand emphasis on disruptive events (business & technical). Expand emphasis on identifying market needs and business situations. Increase quantification of needs. Prioritize Research and Deployment needs. Increase strategic vision of the roadmap:

6 International Roadmap Workshops Gain Additional Participation by holding regional workshops in Asia, Europe, and North America. Asian Workshop held in conjunction with HDP 06 Conference at Shanghai University. European Workshop held in conjunction with Semicon Europa at Messe Munchen. North American Workshop held at inemi Headquarters in Virginia. Goal of increased participation achieved! Laying foundation for further participation on future cycles. 5

7 Statistics for the 2007 Roadmap > 500 Participants > 265 Companies/organizations 17 Countries from 4 Continents 19 Technology Working Groups (TWGs) (added Organic & Printed Electronics) 5 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) Over 1300 Pages of Information Roadmaps the needs for

8 2007 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) Emulators Characteristics Portable / Consumer Office Systems / Large Business / Communication Systems Medical Products Automotive Defense and Aerospace High volume Consumer Products for which cost is the primary driver including Hand held, battery-powered products driven by size and weight reduction Products which seek maximum performance from a few thousand dollar cost limit to literally no cost limit Products which must operate within a highly reliable environment Products which must operate in an automotive environment Products which must operate in extreme environments 7

9 2007 Technology Working Groups (TWGs) Modeling, Modeling, Simulation, Simulation, and and Design Design Connectors RF Components & Subsystems Test, Test, Inspection Inspection & & Measurement Measurement Organic & Printed Electronics Semiconductor Technology Sensors Packaging Passive Components Optoelectronics Thermal Thermal Management Management Ceramic Substrates Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical) Energy Storage Systems Organic Substrates Board Assembly Final Assembly Customer Product Product Lifecycle Lifecycle Information Information Management Management (PLIM) (PLIM) Environmentally Environmentally Conscious Conscious Electronics Electronics Red=Business Green=Engineering Blue=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem 8

10 2007 Technology Working Group (TWGs) Business Processes / Technologies Chair(s) Product Lifecycle Information Mgmt. Eric Simmon, NIST Co-Chair(s) Joanne Friedman, Connekted Design Technologies Modeling, Simulation & Design Tools Sanjeev Sathe, ASE S.B. Park, Binghamton U. Yi-Shao Lai, ASE Environmentally Conscious Electronics Mark Newton, Dell Joe Johnson, Cisco Thermal Management Cam Murray, Carl Fisher 3M Manufacturing Technologies Board Assembly Dongkai Shangguan, Flextronics David Geiger, Flextronics Ravi Bhatkal, Cookson Final Assembly Steven Davidson, Delphi Reijo Tuokko, Tampere U. Test, Inspection & Measurement Michael Reagin, Delphi Michael J. Smith, Teradyne

11 2007 TWG Leadership (cont.) Component / Subsystem Technologies Chair(s) Co-Chair(s) Semiconductor Technology Paolo Gargini, Intel Alan K. Allan, Intel Optoelectronics Rick Clayton, Consultant Passive Components Philip Lessner, Kemet Joseph Dougherty, PSU Packaging Joseph Adam, Skyworks Solutions Connectors John MacWilliams, Consultant Bill Bottoms, NanoNexus RF Components & Subsystems Eric Strid, Cascade Microtech J. Stevenson Kenney, GIT John Barr, Agilent, V.J. Nair, Intel Sensors Tim McBride, Mike Azarian, U. Maryland Sensata Technologies Interconnect Substrates (Ceramic) Howard Imhof, Metalor Ton Schless, Midas Vision Energy Storage & Conversion Systems Dan Doughty, Sandia Labs Ralph Brodd, Broddarp Randhir Malik, IBM Interconnect Substrates (Organic) John T. Fisher, Consultant Henry Utsunomiya, Consultant Mass Data Storage Tom Coughlin, Coughlin Roger F. Hoyt, Retired Associates Organic & Printed Electronics Dan Gamota, Motorola Jan Obrzut, NIST Jie Zhang, Motorola

12 2007 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) Product Emulator Chair(s) 2006 Automotive Products Jim Spall, Delphi Aerospace/Defense Products Medical Products Consumer / Portable Products Office/Large Business System Products/Telecom William E. Murphy, Lockheed Martin Anthony Primavera, Guidant Terry Dishongh, Intel Susan Noe, 3M Erich Klink, IBM Europe Tom Pearson, Intel 11

13 Roadmap Development Product Sector Needs Vs. Technology Evolution TWGs Product Emulator Groups Semiconductor Technology Business Processes Prod Lifecycle Information Mgmt. Design Technologies Modeling, Thermal, etc. Manufacturing Technologies Board Assy, Test, etc. Comp./Subsyst. Technologies Portable / Consumer Office / Large Systems Defense and Aerospace Medical Products Automotive Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc. 12

14 9 Contributing Organizations Interconnect Substrates Ceramic Semiconductors inemi // ITRS Packaging TWG inemi // IPC/JIEP Interconnect TWG Interconnect Substrates Organic inemi Board Assy TWG inemi Roadmap inemi Product Lifecycle Information Management TWG Supply Chain Management inemi Optoelectronics TWG inemi Mass Data Storage TWG Magnetic and Optical Storage Optoelectronics and Optical Storage 13

15 Identified Needs Increased Linkage Between ITRS and inemi Roadmap Market requirements inemi (Emulators) Tech requirements ITRS (Drivers) Chip level System level 14

16 VALUE CREATION IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN ls17.034bes-chain Electronic Materials $81Bn Active Components $228Bn IC Assembly Services $8.8Bn Passive Components $197Bn EMS Assembly $127Bn 2005 Finished Equipment $1,126Bn Typical Companies Sumitomo Bakelite, DuPont, Ablestik Intel, STMicro, LSI Logic Amkor, ASE, SPIL Tyco, Molex, AVX, Sharp Solectron, Sanmina-SCI, Flextronics Dell, HP, Cisco, Nokia, Teradyne, Visteon, Siemens Gross Margin Operating Margin 30% 45% 17% 25% 6% 30% 10% 15% 8% 8% 2% 8% R&D 7% 15% 2% 5% <1% 8% Margin Value R&D Value $8Bn $34Bn $0.7Bn $16Bn $3Bn $90Bn $6Bn $34Bn $0.2Bn $10Bn $1Bn $90Bn %Total R&D 4% 24% 64% Source: Prismark Partners 15

17 2007 inemi Roadmap -Highlights & Trends State of the Art Situation Market / product sector convergence: Examples Implications Medical-consumer Automotive-entertainment Communication-entertainment Computing-entertainment Miniaturization and thinner NPI limited by environmental requirements Outsourcing of manufacturing continues to grow faster than overall industry R&D moving to lower-cost regions / emerging markets Home diagnostics DVD in the car Transmission of music & pictures Integration of PC with media centers Ultra-thin cell phones, lowprofile packaging, stacked thin die Growing list of requirements: China RoHS, EU REACH, etc. Migration to India and Vietnam Technology centers in China & India User-friendly interface, higher volume / lower cost Harsher environment for consumer products Increased integration & greater miniaturization Harmonization of interface standards Ongoing technology and manufacturing investments in package and HDI. Adds complexity and uncertainty to design and start-up. Global harmonization is needed. Integration of design & mfg. functions is more challenging than ever. More impetus for industry standard DFX methodology. More responsive to local needs. Moving away from one size fits all. Changing role for developed regions. 16

18 Shift Anticipated Paradigm Shifts Examples Implications Packaging materials will change over the next decade to meet reliability requirements Optical interconnect by 2017? No! Low-frequency (printed) electronics for data input As density increases, today s material properties present barriers: TCE mismatch, dimensional stability, etc. Work remains at exploratory level. Alternative technology for RFID item-level tags Investments in new materials systems. May require rethinking traditional reliability validation methodology. Competing technologies can meet needs at lower cost. Facilitates low cost point required by some applications. New forms of data Input: displays, cameras, sensors, speech Collision avoidance, smart RFID tags (e.g., sensors). Drives new growth areas for electronics. Simplifies or enhances user experience. 17

19 Challenge Closing technology gaps: 10-Year Challenges Description Active device technology Thermal management Communications bandwidth Design and simulation tools Science-based environmental improvements Creating new product markets with social value: Energy Healthcare Security New CMOS structures; beyond CMOS topologies. New materials and active cooling techniques. Growing requirements for moving data across the environment (from hand-held devices through the network). Ability to do concurrent design for circuit, thermal, mechanical, etc. Current regulations may not consider full cradle to grave impact. Higher efficiency power supplies, new energy sources for portable products. Home diagnostics connected to healthcare professionals. Tamper-proof recognition / validation. 18

20 contacts: Jim McElroy Bob Pfahl 19