inemi Roadmap 2017 Alan Rae

Transcription

1 inemi Roadmap 2017 Alan Rae

2 Topics What s changing in Electronics? The inemi roadmap process The 2017 Roadmap Internet of Things Chapter How can I get involved?

3 Roadmaps Lewis Carroll If you don t know where you re going, any road will get you there In roadmapping we need to determine where here and there are Roadmaps help us figure out intermediate steps Sometimes these lead to a dead end and we need to retrace our steps and take another route and that s OK! Niels Bohr "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

4 Roadmap types Survey Danger many survey responses can focus on short term issues. How the survey is written may bias the results Guru / Oracle Danger bias, company or personal agenda Delphi Requires a critical mass of involved experts from diverse backgrounds and locations worldwide Needs to involve the whole supply chain Needs to be consistent with other roadmaps

5 What s Changing in Electronics? Everything! Only inemi and JISSO (in Japanese only) are comprehensive supply chain based roadmaps. Other roadmaps such as ITRS have undergone major transformation and have fragmented. The rate of change in the industry and the level of uncertainty is high. We re hitting some dead ends e.g. 450mm wafers.

6 Why is Roadmapping now Harder? We used to be able to predict regular increases in clock speed and shrinkage of features on semiconductors Then we started hitting power limits, quantum limits, fab cost limits Workarounds include multi-threading, FinFETs, 2.5D and 3D packaging Rapid market changes Wireless everywhere High performance handhelds Better graphics, streaming video The Cloud Internet of Things Big data Industry 4.0 Vehicle automation The circular economy (Spinograph.org) 271MM to design a 7nm system on a chip (semiengineering.com)

7 7 From Linear to Circular Economy

8 inemi Mission: Forecast and Accelerate improvements in the Electronics Manufacturing Industry for a Sustainable Future. 5 Key Deliverables: Technology Roadmaps Collaborative Deployment Projects Research Priorities Document Proactive Forums Position Papers International Electronics Manufacturing Initiative (inemi) is an industry-led consortium of about 90 global manufacturers, suppliers, industry associations, government agencies and universities. A Non Profit Fully Funded by Member Dues; In Operation Since Visit us at

9 Methodology Available to Market Place Competitive Solutions Technology Evolution Government Roadmap Research Product Needs Disruptive Technology Academia Global Industry Participation GAP Analysis No Work Required inemi Members Collaborate Projects Industry Solution Needed

10 Industry Led Teams Technical Working Group Teams Develops the roadmap technology chapters Presently 21 Teams and Chapters Product Emulator Group Teams Virtual Product : future product attributes plus key cost and density drivers Presently 7 Teams and Chapters Portable / Wireless Office / Consumer Systems High-End Systems Medical Products Automotive Aerospace/Defense IoT/Wearables 10

11 2017 Technology Working Groups (TWGs) Modeling, Simulation, and Design Solid State Illumination Flexible Hybrid Electronics Semiconductor Technology Ceramic Substrates Electronic Connectors MEMS/ Sensors Packaging & Component Substrates RF Components & Subsystems Passive Components Optoelectronics Power Conversion Electronics Mass Storage (Magnetic & Optical) Energy Storage Test, Inspection & Measurement Thermal Management Organic PCB Board Assembly Final Assembly Customer Information Management Systems Sustainable Electronics Red=BusinessGreen=Engineering Purple=Manufacturing Blue=Component & Subsystem

12 Fifteen Contributing Organizations Semiconductors Organic Printed Circuit Boards Interconnect Substrates Ceramic inemi / ITRS2.0 / MIG/PSMA /IPSR/IRDS/HIR Packaging TWG inemi / MIG / ITRS2.0/IRDS MEMS TWG inemi / IPC / EIPC / TPCA Organic PWB TWG inemi Passives TWG inemi Board Assembly TWG inemi Roadmap inemi Optoelectronics TWG inemi Hybrid Flexible Electronics TWG inemi Information Management TWG inemi Mass Data Storage TWG Supply Chain Management Magnetic and Optical Storage Optoelectronics and Optical Storage

13 2017 Roadmap > 500 participants > 350 companies/organizations > 20 countries 21 Technology Working Groups (TWGs) 7 Product Emulator Groups (PEGs) > 2000 pages of information Roadmaps the needs for

14 IoT/Wearables PEG Chapter INTERNET OF THINGS PRODUCT EMULATOR GROUP Contents Internet Of Things Product Emulator Group... 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY... 2 What is IoT... 2 Vision for IoT... 2 Current trends in IoT... 3 Introduction... 5 History of IoT,... 6 Situation Analysis... 7 Market Growth... 8 Roadmap of Quantified Key Attribute Needs Critical Issues Security, Privacy & Safety Processing Power & Battery Capacity Physical Interactions Humans and IoT Interoperability Composability Industry standards Timing Contributors Tables Table 1. Key Parameters for Internet of Things Product Sector... 14

15 Chronological Evolution of IoT Concept With Device Examples Source: 2017 inemi Roadmap

16 IoT Chapter Needed PCB Cost, Key Attributes Spreadsheet Example Parameter Descriptions Metric PCB Costs FR4 Unless Otherwise Stated 1 Layer Flexible State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer flexible State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer Rigid State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer flex State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer flexible State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer flex (with micro vias) State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 4 layer conventional State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer - embedded capacitor / resistor High End $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 6 layer conventional State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer w/ microvia State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer rigid (with micro vias) State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer, blind/buried State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 6 layer - embedded capacitor / resistor High End $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 8 layer State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer w/ microvias State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer w/ blind/buried State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 8 layer colaminated (ALIVH) State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 10 layer conventional State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer w/ microvias State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer w/ blind / buried State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 10 layer colaminated (ALIVH) State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA 12 layer Conventional (FR4) State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm layer conventional (FR4) with buried vias State of the Art (production volume) $ per cm2 NA NA NA NA NA

17 We Want The World On A Laptop / Tablet / Smart Phone

18 Internet Of Things High Level The Internet of Things is clearly a growing market Connected devices are used in a broad range of applications: Entertainment, convenience, efficiency, and/or safety benefits The market is over-hyped, figures are quoted without clear reference to definitions For suppliers of electronics hardware, it is difficult to understand the impact of IoT on their businesses Prismark and inemi define connected devices as: Devices that connect to the Internet directly or through a gateway Each device is an independently deployable entity Five separate market segments: Wearables, home, industrial, medical, and automotive connected devices For purposes of this roadmap, the two principal market segments of interest are wearables and industrial IoT devices The wearables market is one of the most visible segments of the IoT market: Limited to devices that are worn directly on the body The total world population is expected to grow to 7.6Bn by Bn bodies times many locations per body calculates to a very large market opportunity

19 IoT/Wearables Issues In reality, the market is much more limited in size: By 2019, only about 1.6Bn people are expected to have the disposable income to possibly buy any wearable device The wearable device has to be sufficiently compelling to trigger a purchase We believe that the bulk of the market will consist of just two locations and three types of devices: Smartbands: Focused on activity tracking Identification (access, payment) and gesture control functions Smartwatches: Have an important role in tracking children and disabled adults Larger market will be as smart accessories for smartphones, providing an additional unobtrusive display Smart glasses: Devices enabling virtual or augmented reality Industrial/occupational applications Bulk of the market will be driven by entertainment - gaming All wearables tend to have relatively short lifecycles no more than three years bolstering the market through repeat purchases: Prismark expects the wearable device market to grow to 295M units in 2019, from 51M in 2014

20 Wearables Technology Example Source: 2017 inemi Roadmap, MEMS Chapter

21 INDUSTRIAL CONNECTED DEVICE MARKET M Units Key Players Smart Cities Commercial Heavy Industrial Others Assa Abloy, Itron, Landis + Gyr GE, Estimote, Philips ABB, GE, Siemens Total Source: Prismark Partners LLC

22 Industrial IoT

23 IoT / Industrial Issues Industrial applications offer a broad range of opportunities for connected devices Use cases and implementations are just as broad Prismark/iNEMI divide the market into four specific segments: Smart Cities, Commercial Applications, Heavy Industrial, and one other category The industrial connected device is specified, purchased, and deployed by a corporation, government authority, or other institution with expected longer lifetimes, sometimes ten or more years in a harsh environment.

24 Industrial Continued Smart Cities: Cities with large populations (or densities) need to be managed carefully; otherwise, the quality of life degrades quickly. The single largest industrial connected device category today is smart meters: Meter reading becomes even more efficient because it is now completely remote Second, the meter can be read at any time interval, even continuously, which allows for sophisticated pricing models Another priority for smart cities is lighting management: Ranges from in-building to street lights to traffic lights LED bulbs with integrated links (wired, wireless, network), e.g. ZigBee, are widely available for indoor and outdoor applications Energy management in buildings also requires tight control over the HVAC system Individual thermostats are fitted with modules that allow remote monitoring and control

25 IoT / Industrial Issues (2) Commercial Connected Devices: Companies use connected devices in their factories or stores for energy management systems including lighting and HVAC control Additionally, the commercial sector has other specific IoT applications that are of interest: Beacons - can be used for proximity sensing - a shoe store may alert a smartphone user of a shoe store when the user passes by Sensors to increase efficiency or ensure safety Sensors networked to allow for remote monitoring Enables centralized data collection

26 IoT / Industrial Issues (3) The industrial IoT segment is one of the largest IoT markets, but it is extremely fragmented and rarely visible: Industrial connected devices range from very large, complex, and expensive, to very small, simple, and cheap Connected devices for heavy industrial equipment, which may be most easily recognizable as industrial, is actually a very small market: Only 120,000 installed locomotives, 65,000 aircraft, 10,000 marine bulk carriers, and 800,000 pieces of heavy machinery Only about 200,000 robots are sold annually worldwide Thus volumes are modest; prices may be appealing The industrial connected device market is dominated by applications in the smart cities and commercial segments

27 IoT / Wearables & Industrial Growth Forecast In determining the market value of IoT for industrial applications, Prismark has estimated the new electronics content value-add for each application domain as a percentage of the overall electronics hardware value: Approximately 75% of the total systems value is new content Projected to grow from $9Bn in 2015 to $24Bn by % compound growth By 2027, the industrial IoT sector is expected to grow to $33Bn Reference the chart on next slide for growth forecast details The wearables and industrial IoT sectors in 2021 are expected to be close to $70Bn in new electronics content The equivalent of 4% of today s electronic systems production

28 INTERNET OF THINGS ELECTRONICS MARKET FORECAST (Prismark Partners LLC)

29 Critical Gaps Many gaps to address; too many to list; include: Security Interoperability between sensors and devices; particularly across domains (wearable to automotive for example) Timing synchronization across devices Standards are far behind applications Technology challenges in flexible and wearable e.g. smoothly integrating low performance printed with flexible high performance integrated circuits. (clipartfest.com)

30 Why Do Companies, Universities and Government Agencies Join inemi? Strong Global Membership Depth and Breadth of Supply Chain Leaders Strong set of Universities & Research Institutes inemi Reputation Track record of sustainability leadership In demand for knowledge/science input Results oriented workshops 10 year Technology Business Roadmap Delivered every two years Unique Gap Analysis Technical/Business Evolution Details Proven Collaborative R&D Methodology Time tested over 20 years active collaborative R&D projects 30

31 inemi Collaborative Projects Reduce cost by leveraging resources Reduce cost by new technologies Reduce resource demands and $ investments for each company Stimulate standards and common specification development Work on issues facing all your suppliers/customers Disseminate efficient business practices Reduce risk of technology introduction Gain knowledge and accelerate deployment of new technologies Developing industry infrastructure, source of supply Ensure reliability and technology readiness when required Reduce environmental risks Ensure sustainable solutions are put in place and in sync with industry 31

32 Profile of Successful inemi Projects Addresses knowledge gap of industry Common problem solved by working together Often a pre-cursor to standards development Brings together a segment of supply chain to provide industry-wide response Direct alignment with member companies commercial interests. LCA Estimator Tin Whisker Susceptibility Warpage Characterization of Organic Packages Creep Corrosion 32

33 Opportunities For You To Engage with inemi Research Priorities 2015 available for free download, 2017 available fall 2017 Engage in roadmap activities 2019 roadmap now underway! Purchase the 2017 inemi Roadmap at: - University price $500 *Become involved in collaborative projects: 1. Engage in existing projects 2. Participate in projects being planned and defined 3. Develop your own proposal for project, which can be reviewed with inemi membership and technical committee (TC) *Project involvement requires inemi membership 33

34 Bill Bader Grace O Malley gomalley@inemi.org Chuck Richardson crichardson@inemi.org

35 Thank You Acknowledgements Colleagues at inemi and IncubatorWorks Image acknowledgments on each page Contact: (716)

36 2017 Roadmap Pricing (Available from April 10, 2017) Full roadmap USD $ 3500 (PDF download) Single chapter USD $ 500 (PDF download) Special pricing for research institutes, universities, government agencies & nonprofits Full roadmap USD $ 500 Chapter USD $ 100