JHU/APL Rethinking Seminar Series Rethinking Future Environments and Strategic Challenges.

Transcription

1 JHU/APL Rethinking Seminar Series Rethinking Future Envirnments and Strategic Challenges 6 February 2018 Dr. Thmas X. Hammes Natinal Defense University The 4th Industrial Revlutin, De-Glbalizatin, and its Effect n Internatinal Security Ntes: 1. Belw are infrmal ntes f the speaker s remarks as taken by a JHU/APL staff member. 2. The speaker used an extensive set f detailed slides (sme f which included links t nline vides) that are available in the Vide Archives f 3. Links t the vide, audi, and presentatin files frm ther Seminars can als be fund n the Vide Archives, Past Series, and Speakers pages f the website. Vides frm recent years may be fund n the JHU/APL YuTube Playlist. Intrductin In a disclaimer, Dr. Hammes nted that the views he was expressing were his wn and nt necessarily thse f the Department f Defense r the Natinal Defense University. Dr. Hammes then defined deglbalizatin as all the technlgies that are cming tgether t change the glbe ecnmically that will lead t deglbalizatin. Subsequently, deglbalizatin will create a very different security situatin fr the US. He als nted that there has been sme cncern abut f a weakening f the Americans willingness t fight. As a cunterpint, he ffered this slide: 1

2 Analysts must lk at a range f futures and much has been written abut the glbalized future. Dr. Hammes nted that he wuld discuss anther f thse futures deglbalizatin. Indicatrs f Deglbalizatin Ttal internatinal trade as percentage f GDP is decreasing Internatinal trade is increasing but nt as fast ecnmic grwth, which indicates that cuntries are prducing mre gds dmestically Picture is mre severe when lk at trade in gds and nt bth gds and services Grwth in internatinal trade is largely reginal Abut half f US internatinal trade is with Canada and Mexic Abut 70% f Eurpe s internatinal trade is within the cre f Eurpe Asia is becming mre and mre f a trade center Grwth in glbal shipping cntainer thrughput is prjected t remain belw GDP grwth Usually, grwth in cntainer thrughput indicates increases in GDP Hwever, this GDP grwth appears t be frm dmestic manufacturing r prductin f gds that are nt being shipped in a cntainer (sme may g by air) Glbal financial flws that were almst 15% f GDP befre the ecnmic crash are nw dwn t nly 2% f GDP Develping cuntries had the mst dramatic drps 2010 saw recvery fr bth the financial flws int develping cuntries and the GDP Investment in develping ecnmies fell ff mre recently Over $400B left develping ecnmies Sme f the change is frm attempts t put mney in safer ecnmies r related t currency rate changes Nrmally, in glbalizatin yu are lking fr cheap labr rates requiring glbal investment but that isn t happening Deglbalizatin is nt a new phenmenn it s a histrical cycle Yu glbalize when there is mney t be made and deglbalize when prfit ges away Usually driven by plitical issues such as the tariff wars f the 1930s r security issues such as real wars It tk until 1977 t reach the 1914 level f glbalizatin which was derailed by tw wrld wars Oil crises pushed glbalizatin when cntainers made transprtatin cheaper and cmputers made tracking gds easy permitting the use f cheap labr glbally It was pssible t make mre mney by manufacturing where labr was cheap, i.e., subassembly in SE Asia, higher rder assembly in China, then shipped glbally Causes f Deglbalizatin Deglbalizatin tday has ttally different drivers: technlgy, energy prductin, scial, and plitical Key new element in deglbalizatin is that the cst f labr advantage is disappearing If the cst f labr verseas is n lnger cheaper than dmestic prductin, there is n reasn t prduce gds verseas given transprtatin and inventry csts Other csts are als invlved as are prblems f respnse time t the market 2

3 Technlgical Drivers with The Mst Immediate Effects 3-D Printing making rapid prgress frm printing cmplex items using plastics t nw prducing thse same items in metal The items in this picture are fasteners used in the walls f skyscrapers thusands are needed in each building The 3-D printed ne n the right is much strnger and 40% lighter and cheaper than the ne n the left, i.e., a traditinally manufactured part Other examples f 3-D printed items include: metal replacements fr human ribs and items that can be printed here in the US withut relying n subassembly parts frm SE Asia Autmated 3-D factries require very few peple and can increasingly prduce a lt mre prduct with a lt fewer peple Rbts Industrial Rbts are wide-spread but have significant limitatins, i.e., they ften require majr safety cnsideratins, and it is hard t make changes in the prductin line Despite prblems, they are already cheaper than Chinese labr tday Example: China built a new truck plant that makes 150% mre trucks with greater reliability and withut 90% f the wrkers Cllabrative Rbts (COBOTS) will make the real difference They can be mved and retrained very easily even multiple times a day Prgraming may take nly 20 minutes and desn t need a specialist Cst is reasnable especially since they wrk 3 shifts and never call in sick COBOTS slved a prblem fr BMW where the wrkfrce averages 47 years ld and were having prblems lifting large pieces that the rbts nw d fr them See an example at where adding rbts dubled prductin creating 50 new jbs in Denmark but eliminating many jbs elsewhere in the wrld Scial Rbts (SOBOTS) Can d jbs such as teaching assistant, assciate lawyers, radilgists, diagnsing nclgists, call center peratrs Gergia Tech used Jill Watsn, a versin f IBM s Watsn cmputer, as a teaching assistant fr an nline curse N ne knew but praised her highly Best teaching assistant ever; n-duty ready t answer 24/7 Anther Watsn versin lks thrugh every bankruptcy case filed in the cuntry and sends relevant cases t senir partners in a law firm Cmputers have been fund t be better at radilgy and nclgy diagnses India has lst 70,000 IT jbs in call centers in the last year as the wrk is mved back t the US but it is being dne by cmputers Insurance clerks wh gather data and fill ut frms are being replaced by cmputers freeing humans fr higher value wrk but eliminating sme jbs SEWBOTS require bringing tgether high skills and cmplex peratins It was thught that clthing manufacturing wuld be ne f the last areas that culd be autmated cnsidering difficulties in handling, matching, cutting, etc. Tw cmpanies have managed t fuse all the activities using different methds 3

4 Despite all the clthing makers ging verseas, the US has maintained a clth manufacturing industry because it was relatively easy t autmate Nw that autmated cutting and sewing have been develped, prductin f clthing is returning t the US See fr an example f SEWBOT and its many phases f peratin This vide was made by an rganizatin that is cncerned abut the impact f autmatin n jbs in Asia The prblem: 67% f wmen s jbs in Vietnam are in clthing manufacturing (its ver 70% in Bangladesh) Such prblems are nt a new phenmenn Bttm line: As indicated in the chart abve, nce cmputers arrived, jbs in mstly rutine tasks n lnger grew at the same rate as jbs invlving nnrutine tasks If rutine jbs had grwn at the same rate as nnrutine manual, the US wuld have 30 millin mre jbs (50 millin mre if at the rate f nnrutine cgnitive) Rutine tasks are the nes that have been autmated up until nw Nw as AI cmes n line, we will see the nnrutine rates fall ff, t, in areas such as sewing and wrk that can be dne with printing machines 4

5 Changing Energy Flws Energy (in liquid r gas frms) mves easily arund the wrld with natural gas having distinct trading regimes while il is mstly in a glbal market The US hit peak energy demand a cuple f years ag and is nt grwing even thugh the ecnmy is grwing because f newly intrduced efficiencies Energy demand is still grwing glbally but nt as fast as it was Energy prductin has imprved significantly largely because f shale il, which invlves micrwaving il and water ut f the rcks, bringing the cst dwn t $65/bbl The US has 3.7 trillin bbls f shale il Prgress in prducing renewables is als making great strides Bttm line: Energy imprts t the US have cntinued t fall as indicated in the chart belw US prductin drpped when il prices went dwn and sme shale prducers left the business But, they came back when the prices went up Prducers culd put anther millin barrels n line in abut a year The US is nw imprting nly abut 9% f its energy, mst f which frm N. America Changes in the cst f natural gas has made a huge difference t the US ecnmy When the prices were at the highest fr the US, the chemical prcessing industry started t leave because mst f it was based n natural gas 5

6 As the cst f natural gas drpped dramatically fr the US, it created a massive advantage and chemical prcessing has begun t return The situatin culd even imprve when mre pipelines and better strage methds are develped cutting dwn the amunt f gas that is nw lst t flaring Renewable energy grwth has been very significant wrldwide Tw years ag, 58% f all new energy installatins in the wrld were fr renewables, mstly slar and wind (68% in the US) Nw mre efficiencies fr wind are being develped, but there may be prblems fr the slar industry given the recently annunced slar panel tariffs Other Drivers Scial drivers Mass custmizatin can nw be accmplished using technlgy and AI giving cmpanies reasns t mve back t the US and prviding new business pprtunities Adidas is building 20 new factries in the US t be near its markets fr fast prduct turnarunds Nike has buyers run n a treadmill while a system analyses their feet s that a 3-D printer can prduces a specific she fr each ft One cmpany is testing in-stre prductin f machine-knitted sweaters delivered in 4 hurs after a custmer chses the style, yarn, etc. Bttm line: Mre custmers are demanding the fast fashin already fund in Eurpe and beginning t cme t the US Envirnmental issues shw up in the frm f the prduce lcal, eat lcal mvements Plitical drivers Prtectinism has been grwing since 2008 there have been ver 4,000 such measures wrldwide with nly 740 reversed In reactin t US tariffs n slar panels, the Chinese are cnsidering tariffs n srghum and sybeans Prblem: Prtectinist wars culd be very bad fr the US While the internet was suppsed t unite the wrld, it has been fragmented as China has figured ut a way t blck its peple ff frm the wrld wide web China carved ut its wn internet with its Glden Shield and Great Firewall China als cllects vast amunts f data n its peple t build individual scial scres that determine wh can g t a schl, travel, etc. Peple dn t knw their scres nr hw t imprve them Result: Peple fear pushing against the gvernment Russia is adpting a similar system Ecnmic Impacts Lng term trends have been really bad fr manufacturing jbs in the US 6

7 Big drps in manufacturing jbs began when China jined the Wrld Trade Organizatin (WTO) while utput cntinued t climb Of nte, manufacturing jbs were beginning t increase again in 2010 Despite all the talk f the cllapse f US manufacturing, it isn t given that 800,000 jbs were gained in the last 5 years plus: US industry is still shrt 400,000 trained wrkers 2015 and 2016 were recrd years fr Freign Direct Investment ver $400B was invested each year with 70% ging int manufacturing Bttm line: US manufacturing is nt in truble: Fr the last 2 years 2% f the ecnmy was freign peple investing in US manufacturing Manufacturing is nt as big a part f the ecnmy as it used t be but it is recvering Recent quarterly reprts appear t shw the same trends but there may be changes given changing US plicies n taxes, etc. US GDP frm manufacturing is als steadily increasing The US share f glbal manufacturing value added drpped as China s rse but the US share has begun t mve back up starting in 2011 Ecnmic impacts f deglbalizatin include Greater glbal prsperity Develped cuntries will have much greater wealth when yu eliminate the cst f labr as it ges dwn t next t nthing Prblem: As in all industrial revlutins, capital is favred ver labr When industrialists buy 4 COBOTs t replace 9 peple, they dn t give the mney they save t thse wh lst their jbs 7

8 Hw d we d incme distributin since we are nt gd at it? The US is in great shape since it is largely energy and fd independent, with manufacturing and services returning Currently, nly 13% f the US ecnmy is based n exprts Reginal ecnmies culd d well Reginal supply chains plus market size will shape the emerging markets Nrth America culd be a largely independent ecnmy when yu add the three cuntries tgether ttaling ver 500 millin peple in the regin It culd be energy independent with sme pipeline, etc. issues It is already fd independent It culd even be manufacturing independent Eurpe and Asia are already trading reginally Prblem: Premature deindustrializatin culd ccur fr areas that were cheap labr destinatins nw COBOTs are the cheap labr and they wrk everyday 4 th Industrial Revlutin Changes t the Character f War First rule f warfare: Leave muntain peple alne (Tuscans, Afghans, Basque, West Virginians) They are up there because they want t be there and left alne Warnings abut predictins - cme frm lking at a 1992 slide predicting the future f warfare Nte that the nly fighters n the battlefield are Special Operatins (SOF) and n ne talks t them Did nt turn ut that way 8

9 DD predicted it wuld win wars withut peple, but recent histry has shwn that was wrng New predictins invlve cnverging technlgies that lead away frm the few and explicit weapn systems we are building (pwerful aircraft carriers, all-seeing F-35s, etc.) New weapns systems are predicted t be: small, smart, many, and very lethal Small: Explsively Frmed Prjectiles (EFP) can be 3 z. prjectiles that culd punch thrugh a half inch f steel If yu add energetics (explsives), yu get 10 times the pwer f TNT Even mre impact if use EFP n a 1,000lb T-LAM warhead Smart: IEDs that hunt yu use drnes like thse seen in in this YuTube vide Many: It is nw pssible t make vast numbers f drnes cheaply using 3-D printing An $800, 50-km-range drne, built in 28 hurs, was made frm a few 3-D printed parts and nline-purchased batteries $600 f the cst was the cell phne used t cntrl it It wuld be pssible t put a small explsive n the drne and direct it int the nse f a vehicle destrying the engine 3-D printing will becme ubiquitus UPS is getting int the business since it believes that the shipping business will eventually decline 3-D printing plants will have thusands f printers which wuld permit printing hundreds f drnes in a day A dedicated factry culd prduce 100,000 cheap drnes that culd be cnverted int anti-vehicle weapns Prblem fr grund fighters: Hw can I mve with 10,000 drnes ver my brigade everyday that culd kill my wheeled vehicles (but nt armr yet)? Drnes can be mass launched: China has a 600-mi range Harpy autnmus system; the US can perate swarms f 100 drnes that crdinate with each ther Many ther cuntries als have drne systems that can reach hundreds and even thusands f miles; paylads are small but adequate in number Sme systems have stealth cnfiguratins; thers can be cheap enugh t be flwn n lengthy ne-way missins with significant paylads Sme can deliver rdnance fr less than the perating csts f the F-35 Majr advantage: Systems that are vertical take-ff and recvery d nt need airfields eliminating the threat f preemptin Cheap space can tell the drnes where t g using inexpensive 3-D printed rckets t launch inexpensive, 3-D printed cubesats Tiny cubesats already have enugh camera reslutin t prvide a clear image f a car frm space, while radar and thermal versins are being develped Example: India launched 101 cubesats n a rcket last year; 88 were wned by ne cmpany that will sell yu imagery f any pint n the planet every 24 hurs If yu are interested in what yu see, they can shift t a slightly larger satellite t get half-meter reslutin Bttm line: The cncept f hiding at sea r hiding an airfield are gne Other systems can be hidden in plain sight: The Russian Sunburst system fits in a standard shipping cntainer but can launch supersnic missiles up t 800 mi China culd easily put such systems n any number f their 200,000 fishing vessels and trucks that culd handle such cntainers and they culd becme launchers 9

10 Future Weapns Systems Directed Energy: Lasers and Micrwave Land-based lasers have the advantage f being attached t pwer grids t supprt their massive pwer requirements and it is easier t cnceal land-based systems Weaknesses fr lasers wuld be their prblems with the presence f any smke r haze in the target area r the pssibility f reflective catings n the target Micrwave prblems in the past that required Faraday cages have less prblems nw that such cages can be 3-D printed arund the equipment Lking at histrical patterns related t the replacement f weapns systems gives sme indicatin f future changes Weapns system changes begin with an assistant, then a partner, then a replacement Aircraft were riginally assistants t battleships allwing them t lk ver the hrizn and calling the shts fr the ships By the 1930s aircrafts were partners actually making the first strikes befre the battleship culd arrive By the 1940s aircraft cmpletely replaced the battleship In general, we already have drnes as partners but in sme areas such as lng-term surveillance drnes have already replaced manned aircraft DD nw uses cruise missiles fr deep strike when the range is t far, r the threat envirnment is t high fr manned aircraft We must lk at these changing situatins with hnest, rigrus experimentatin If dishnest, then we will wind up in situatins like the French methdical battles that wrked well in exercises until the Germans shwed up fr a live fire game Same srt f situatin happened with US reliance n battleships instead f aircraft carriers at the start f WWII Fr irregular warfare we must cnsider the cnverging elements f small, smart, and many, all f which favr the insurgents wh als have the advantages f: Less bureaucracy (meaning less lawyers) and less targeting issues they can strike whatever they want t Less infrastructure t prtect and it was here that ISIS made a mistake they prvided a target fr the US and allies t strike at when they tk cntrl f land The West must recgnize that there is n mre immunity fr its cmfrtable bases since they nw are s easy t hit given drnes and ther weapns available t irregular fighters There are n mre secure lines f cmmunicatin Insurgents can d things like blwing up an aircraft at a civilian airprt t impede the US and allies tying t send their frces int a specific theater Fighters can bring a small charge t use as a detnatr since the explsives will already be there in the frm f full gas tanks n the aircraft They can threaten t d it again unless the US and allies are prhibited frm using reginal airprts By then civil airlines will stp flying in, thereby harming the lcal ecnmy Even imprtant distant hub airprts such as Frankfurt am Main Meetings t get lcal hstiles talking culd easily be threatened by drne attacks Outside spnsrs culd be very pwerful again since they culd easily supply lts f ffthe-shelf drnes, n lnger needing years f negtiating fr planes and pilts As in the Cld War, Russia culd have thers cause prblems fr the US 10

11 Changes t the Cnventinal Grund Dmain Autnmus drnes already exist and are cheaper than ATGMs fr prviding mass precisin targeting GPS is n lnger needed with weapn systems returning t inertial guidance t get t the target area and then using visual guidance t d the rest Grund systems will evlve perhaps by flying drnes int hstile areas and then allwing them t sit and wait fr the target t cme in range Mass reappears, nw with precisin targeting and these drnes dn t need t be smart We culd already swarm 10,000 dumb drnes tday maybe 2,000 are s dumb that they run int each ther and gd air defenses culd knck ut anther 5,000 Result: There still wuld be 3,000 drnes left t hunt yur vehicles and mre culd cme back the next day Dispersed 20-ft cntainers/pds can perate independently r as netwrks and it wuld be hard t preempt them since they lk like nrmal cntainers Standard shipping cntainers culd als be used t hld huge amunts f explsives making 50,000 lb. IEDs when hit by the ther side s attack Nw may be the same as 1863 in the US Civil War when, because f the rifled musket and rifled cannn, nthing abve the surface f the earth culd survive a mass attack That prblem wasn t slved until WWI when the Germans develped strm trper tactics Bttm line: We may be entering a perid when defense is dminant in grund warfare Changes t the Cnventinal Sea Dmain Small drnes can t sink ships but they can d missin kills If an aircraft is blwn up n a carrier flight deck, it can take 96 hurs t a mnth t repair Missin kills n an Aegis ship culd be dne with shtgun-like blasts t radars r the big bxes that cntain missiles which wn t take much t blw up Smart mines already exist and are becming self-deplying at great distances such that the US shuld be practicing breaking ut frm prts as we did in the past Changes t the Cnventinal Air Dmain The F-35 will eventually be a great aircraft but the enemy wn t bther fighting the US in the air and desn t have t It is easier t hit aircraft n the grund and all the systems that supprt them, i.e., ther aircraft, lgistic ndes, cmmand and cntrl ndes, etc. Recent study: If China suddenly attacks US bases in Japan, they wuld hit all ships in prt and all headquarters, crater all the airbases, and kill 200 aircraft n the grund within the first few hurs Cruise missiles culd take ver mst air missins in the assist/partner/replacement trend Drnes are already in partner mde when they accmpany F-35s and are under the aircraft s cntrl Key prblem: US bases are n lnger sanctuaries Key questin: Is the entire US manned aircraft fleet bslete? Krats drnes have a range f 1,500 mi (2-3 times that f F-35s) and cst $2m The US culd buy 65 Krats fr the price f ne F-35 withut cunting the $45,000/hr perating csts, pilt and maintenance pipelines, air bases, etc. 11

12 Range is the real prblem: Manned aircraft have ranges ut t 800nm r less while cruise missiles and even cheap Chinese missiles and drnes can reach nearly 2,000nm tday Range bslescence has histrically been a prblem in warfare armred knights culd take apart bwmen if they culd just get clse enugh Battleships culd ut fight carriers if they culd get in range Even B-21 airfields in Missuri wuld be vulnerable t Sunburst cruise missiles sht frm a merchant ship in the Gulf f Mexic Bttm line questin: Are we spending billins f dllars n bslete weapns systems? Tradeff csts: F-35s cst $100M (r maybe $ M), plus $45K per perating hur Carriers cst $20B with their air wings but nt cunting their battle grups Litering TLAMs did cst $1.1M but with new Additive Manufacturing culd lwer the cst t abut $600K Cst equivalents: 1 F-35 csts abut the same as 160 TLAMs r 50 QX222 drnes DD can buy 1 mre TLAM fr each mnth that a squadrn desn t fly an F-35 (just cunting perating csts) In a similar situatin, DD can buy 3 mre QX222 drnes fr each squadrn mnth that F-35s aren t flwn Instead f buying ne aircraft carrier DD culd buy 33,000 TLAMs r 10,000 QX222 drnes r 6 Virginia Class submarines plus17,000 TLAMs Carriers are bslete since they can t get in range f the target Still useful in lw intensity cnflicts if fighting Afghan tribes r Iraqi militiamen Changes t the Cnventinal Space and Cyber Dmains Everyne already has space assets Surveillance will be ubiquitus There is n mre hiding at sea r hiding airprts Everyne will have space cmmunicatins and ptentially space attack capabilities Cubesats are already being develped t maneuver enugh t repair ther cubesats If yu can maneuver cubesats clse enugh t d repairs, yu can make them d less beneficial peratins t thers satellites Cyber Dmain We must recgnize that all cyber riginates in the real wrld and it is pssible t strike these expsed ndes (servers, netwrks, etc.) It is als pssible t strike underwater cables and their key ndes inland EMP cruise missiles culd be used Quantum cmputing culd have an impact but that is currently unclear since it is still sme time away Electrmagnetic spectrum warfare is nt a dmain fr the US because it falls under cyber and unless it has its wn presence in DD s budget it wn t get much funding It is a specific dmain fr Russia and China and bth are very gd at it The US is nt even in the game 12

13 Strategic Implicatins f Deglbalizatin Decreased American interest in internatinal affairs can already be seen Previusly, when there was truble in the Middle East, US il prices wuld g up and s wuld gas prices, but that is n lnger the case Similar situatins will ccur with manufacturing The cst f interventin will increase since the US will need t figure ut hw t defend itself frm the time its frces leave the hmeland n the way t any hstilities The cncepts f mass and mbilizatin will return The US has been mving t fewer and fewer platfrms Peak glbal prductin fr the F-35, which is prjected t ccur in 2022, will nly be 17 per mnth fr 7 air frces, 2 navies, and 1 marine crps This wn t be cmbat replacement numbers If yu are ging t need mass, then yu must plan fr mbilizatin The civilian factry may be able t print 10,000 r 100,000 drnes but they wn t be handling the explsives We need t recgnize that wars will be lng, i.e., shrt wars are a fantasy Lking at 200 years f histry, we can see that wars between develped, relatively healthy states have lasted between years and decades Shrt wars have nly happened when a healthy state fights a cllapsing empire Japan against Russia and China; Germany against Austria and France; the US against Spain Operatinal Implicatins f Deglbalizatin Des tactical defense becme dminant? The US cnsiders itself a pwer prjectin frce but that will becme mre difficult It will be easier t deny a dmain than t use it Dminance in any dmain will be much mre difficult Crss dmain attacks will be easier: It will be easier t launch lng-range cheap drnes at a cyber system when it cmes ut f the grund in the hmeland Implicatins fr Great Pwer Cmpetitin The gd news is that the cming changes favr the defense and gegraphy favrs the defense fr the US China has t break ut f the First Island Chain and Russia has t cme ut f Russia Defense in bth places can be dminant and relatively cheap The US can sustain its alliances by talking t smaller pwers, discussing this fundamentally defensive apprach, and develping lwer cst weapns that the allies will als buy Prblem: If the US buys F-35s, then the allies think they shuld buy F-35s Pilts think pilts shuld exist even thugh drnes can d everything pilts can d Big Questins Des small, smart, many dminate the few and exquisite? If s, are we buying wrng stuff? Puring in lts f mney wn t d any gd if yu are buying battleships in 1940 Will land pwer cme t dminate all dmains? If we have cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that allw us t stand ff 2,000 miles, d we really need t wrry abut the adversary s navy r air frce? 13

14 Bttm line: DD needs sme vigrus wargames Will the Furth Industrial Revlutin lead t deglbalizatin and, if it des, will the US mve t reginalism and give up n the wrld and just stay hme? QUESTION & ANSWER SESSION Re: Artificial Intelligence (AI) fr Cueing AI is nt yet advanced enugh t take ver mre elabrate thinking prcesses; s far ur capabilities are limited t task-specific AI We can already tell a drne t g ut t a general lcatin, lk fr a specific type f aircraft with specific characteristics, and when fund, attack it General AI is nt ready yet t carry ut human-level thinking prcesses It is pssible in clsed scieties t use Big Data with data-mining techniques n cell phne recrds and ther surces that can help identify what is happening and t cue analysts Data surces culd als be mvement f gds r lng-term imagery studies AI is nt really that useful t cntrl scieties at this time Re: The Nature f War Wars always invlve cnfusin, passin, chance, and reasn In the future, peple will still be invlved in making war unless the machines will decide everything and the humans are just slaves Peple will still decide when and where t fight Chance will be invlved: Wh is in the White Huse and des the president believe that the bldy nse attack is the best idea fr handling a ptential adversary? There will always be different human pinins abut what are gd ideas versus bad ideas We must always expect uncertainty since ne side wn t always knw what the ther side was thinking especially when the ther side is a very alien culture such as N. Krea r China Re: Return f Industry and Jbs t the US The 4 th Industrial Revlutin will allw sme develping cuntries t skip industrializatin Sme regins in Africa are already depending n lcal pwer grids and batteries s that they can skip natinal pwer grids Use f cell phnes has permitted skipping natinal telephne landline systems fr sme states In badly managed cuntries where crrupt fficials wn the pwer cmpanies, equipment fr the reginal cmpanies is ften destryed whenever it is installed Premature deindustrializatin and that culd cause a gd deal f unrest The US is in a fairly gd situatin because the US, Canada, and Mexic can have pretty gd tradeffs and wealth if we dn t mess it up Big prblems wuld ccur if a cllapse ccurred in the Middle East r Africa sending huge waves f migrants t Eurpe This issue has already caused a split in threat perceptins in Eurpe and NATO The nrthern and eastern cuntries see Russia as the biggest threat The suthern and western cuntries see migrants as the biggest threat Result: Tw different sets f defense and security cncerns in ne alliance 14

15 Histric studies can prvide sme hints f hw the earlier Industrial Revlutins affected ppulatins using data frm recrds kept n British cities : In the first Industrial Revlutin ne can see steady imprvement in the human cnditin frm majr imprvements in life-expectancy and health Abut 1820: The 2 nd Industrial Revlutin starts and human cnditin (life-expectancy and health) begin t dip Peple then had t mve t cities and wrk at varius mills Cnditins were hrrendus causing health situatins which lead t high death rates and thse cnditins remained until abut the s Between 1870 and1890: Life-expectancy dubled in the cities as wrking and living cnditins imprved fr inhabitants Key questin nw: Hw lng and hw deep will the dip be fr the 4 th Industrial Revlutin? Hw well will we d wealth distributin? Prblem: We usually d nt d that well in the US China has similar prblems with large disparities between the rich and the pr Cming up with a gvernment system that can handle this prblem will be a real challenge Re: Demgraphics and Wealth An aging ppulatin might nt be a bad thing in the lng run where mre wealth will be distributed amng a smaller number f peple The US and China will prbably be better ff than cuntries with yung ppulatins that are still grwing The US is still grwing smewhat but China is aging faster than any ther cuntry except Japan One majr factr in demgraphics is the empwering f wmen by prviding them cntrl ver reprductin thrugh birth cntrl ptins After the intrductin f such an ptin, we always see a tremendus decline in the birthrate, i.e., a psitive cncept fr mst ppulatins This wuld be a mre psitive impact than cheap rbts If Third Wrld cuntries can get past their ppulatin bulges, then things shuld imprve Cultural differences: In the Middle East and elsewhere, ne persn in a family f 10 r 12 may wrk and supprt the rest In the US family members may think, I m wrking and yu aren t t bad fr yu Bttm line: Demgraphics will depend a lt n the scial structure and` hw it is perating Re: The Future f Deterrence We must always keep the will t fight See the first slide n what Washingtn s trps were willing t d crssing the Delaware Deterrence is always a matter f denial and punishment If yu have denied the adversary yu have deterred them as lng as they knw it S, there als must be an infrmatin campaign invlved in deterrence Example: The Baltics culd never raise enugh armred divisins t stp a Russian invasin They culd have a yearly exercise with 5,000 cheap drnes launching frm nrmal 20-ft cntainers t attack target vehicles placed near the brder 15

16 They culd als set ff a cuple f 50,000lb IEDs set in cntainers Such exercises must be well publicized Rather than trying t teach civilians t fight infantrymen in mnthly drills, teach them what they already knw hw t d in their wn neighbrhds They knw where the cntainers are and are cnnected t lts f cheap cameras in trees that will alert them when the Russian cnvys apprach They will detnate the cntainer IEDs when the Russians get in range Their jbs will be t blw up the cntainer IEDs frm a distance, just as the Afghans have dne with rad IEDs As the Iraqis learned, there is n percentage in getting in a firefight with the US Army Hwever, blwing up US sldiers using IEDs seemed t wrk well Bttm line: New weapns systems give them denial (Russians might nt be able t crss int the Baltics) and they wuld be punished fr even trying, but there als must be an infrmatin campaign s that the danger t the adversary is clear 16