Welcome to the 10 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks. October 5th, 2017 Osage National Golf Resort

Transcription

1 Welcome to the 10 th Annual Real Estate Symposium for The Lake of the Ozarks October 5th, 2017 Osage National Golf Resort

2 Economic and Real Estate Market Outlook October, 2017 Steve Snook, Senior Business Consultant RE/MAX Mid-States and Dixie Region

3 Existing Home Sales 7,500,000 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000

4 New Home Sales 1,400Thousand units 1,200 1,

5 20 Young Adults Living with Parents % of those aged 25 to

6 Jan Mar Jun Aug Nov Jan Apr Jun Sep Nov Feb May Jul Oct Dec Mar May Aug Oct Jan Mar Jun Aug Nov Jan Apr Mortgage Rates 30-year Fixed Rate

7 Jan Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Sep Oct Nov Dec Dec Jan Feb Mar Mar Apr May Stock Market: S&P 500 Index

8 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan Inventory of Homes Low Months Supply Low Supply over the past 5 year Home price grew by 41% 4 times faster than income

9 May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar Median Days on Market 34 days vs 47 days one year ago

10 May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb Months to Sell a Newly Built Home

11 Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Jun Oct Feb Single-family Housing Starts (Cannot Ramp Up because of Lots, Labor, Lending, Lumber) Thousand units

12 350, , , , , ,000 50,000 0 Median Home Price: New vs. Existing

13 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Homeowners Equity in Real Estate $ billion

14 12.0 Borrowers Not Defaulting All Mortgages FHA Mortgages Veterans Affairs Mortgages Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3

15 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Homeownership Rate Still Near 50-year Lows

16 Homeownership Rate and Home Price West Northeast South Midwest $400,000 $200,000 West Northeast South Midwest $0

17 Home Price Growth Expectations REALTORS Consumers NY Fed Survey Economists WSJ Panelists Consumers Fannie Mae Consumers NAR HOME Survey 4.0% 5.1% 4.1% 53% prices will rise 51% prices will rise Next 12 months Next 12 months Next 12 months 8% prices will fall 7% price will fall

18 GDP Growth Rates Reagan GHW Bush Clinton GW Bush Obama Trump Q1 Trump Q2

19 Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan Sep May Jan In thousands Total Job Openings

20 Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Jul Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings In thousands

21 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 150,000 In thousands Jobs (8M lost 16 M gained) 145, , , , , ,000

22 Jobs by Sector Net Change over past 12 months (in thousands) Information Mining & Logging Federal Govt Manufacturing Wholesale Real Estate & Leasing Retail Sales Education Financial & Insurance State & Local Govt Construction Administrative Service Hospitality Professional & Tech Service Health Care

23 Retiree Population Projection (in thousands)

24 Economic Forecast Forecast 2018 Forecast GDP Growth 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% Job Growth +2.6 million +2.0 million +2.1 million +2.4 million CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2%

25 Housing Forecast Forecast 2018 Forecast New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Median Price Growth 500, , , , million 5.4 million 5.6 million 5.8 million + 6.8% +5.1% +5.0% +3.5% 30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.3% 5.0%

26 Watch List o Natural Disasters Flood Insurance (To keep or not to keep) o Tax Law Changes - Mortgage Interest Deduction and More o International Relations Doing business with other countries o Supply of labor and raw materials We ve been here before

27 More Things to Watch o Immigration Issues o Health Care Costs o Natural Resource Depletion o Race Relations o Technology vs. People o Home Grown Terrorism and

28

29 So what can we do? Get involved locally Support effective leadership Don t complain do something See the world for what it can be

30 A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. Winston Churchill

31 It s Personal When asked to choose between two statements, most homeowners (52 percent) view their home more as an important financial investment, but almost as many (48 percent) view their home more as an important reflection of self and emblem of who they are personally.

32 Thank You!

33 The Lake of the Ozarks Real Estate Market Jason Whittle & Jeff Krantz

34 Total Transactions All Property Types Through 3 rd Quarter of each Year Total Sales % Increase 2016 to 2017, 5% Increase 2015 to 2016, 9.4% Increase since 2014 to % Increase since 2009 (market low in # of Sales)

35 Total Volume All Property Types 600,000,000 Through 3 rd Quarter of each Year 500,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000, ,000,000 0 Total Sales % increase from , 4.7 increase from , 11.6% increase from % increase since 2010 ( market low in volume)

36 Median Price Residential Homes 200, , , , ,000 Through 3 rd Quarter each Year 168, , , , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Total Sales % increase from % increase since 2011

37 $ Price Per Sqft Residential Homes Through 3 rd Quarter of each year. $[VALUE] $ $ $95.00 $ $102 $99.00 $97.00 $96.00 $92.00 $90.00 $85.00 $80.00 Price per sqft % increase from 2016 to % increase since 2012

38 Inventory Includes all New Listings that came on the market through 3 rd Quarter of Each Year New Listings New Listings

39 Market Absorption Rates: through 3 rd Quarter of each year 7105 New Listings 1378 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 5.15 Listings 6188 New Listings 1874 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 3.3 Listings 6150 New Listings 2050 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 3 Listings 6006 New Listings 2151 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 2.79 Listings 5988 New Listings 2456 Total Sales 1 Sale out of every 2.44

40 Today s Current Inventory 1320 Residential Homes & Villas 449 Condominiums 36 Farms 1221 Lots 290 Commercial

41 The Make Up of the Lake Market 8% 2% 2% 1% 2017 Sales through 3rd Quarter 28% 30% 30% Waterfront Res Offwater Res Condominum Lots & Lands Commercial Villa Farms

42 Total Lake of the Ozarks Sales by Month JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

43 Fourth Quarter % of Sales per Year % % % The myth of slow Winter Time Sales at the lake has been BUSTED!

44 Residential Waterfront Market through the 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) $117.1 $ $116.9 $ $168.2 $ $184.4 $ $177.9 $ $247.5 $337.2

45 Residential Waterfront Market through 3 rd Quarter Residential Waterfront Foreclosure Sales Sales % of Sales % %

46 Residential Off-Water Market through 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) $51.9 $ $53.2 $ $73.3 $ $79.9 $ $90.2 $ $109.9 $148.1

47 Residential Off-Water Market through 3 rd Quarter Residential Off-Water Foreclosure Sales Sales % of Sales % %

48 Condominium Market through 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) $56.1 $ $54.7 $ $73.5 $ $83 $ $87.5 $ $106.8 $157.8

49 Commercial Market through 3 rd Quarter Year # Sales Volume (millions) Average Sold Price (thousands) $5.7 $ $8.1 $ $10.5 $ $12.2 $ $17 $ $12.2 $290

50 Questions?

51 Developer Panel: Sam Adler Fred Dehner

52 Sam Adler Development Director for The Staenberg Group (TSG) with primary responsibility and oversight for new development and/or redevelopment activities across the portfolio. Sam also leads Third Party brokerage activities for some of TSG s national retail and restaurant clients. Sam brings more than 8 years of experience in multiple facets of the real estate industry including leasing, development, project management, third party brokerage and land acquisition. Prior to joining TSG, Sam managed all leasing activities for a 6 million square foot portfolio at THF Realty. A graduate of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University, Sam double majored in Finance and Real Estate. He is a member of the International Council of Shopping Centers, and a licensed Salesperson in the State of Missouri.

53

54

55

56

57 Fred Dehner General Manager, Tan-Tar-A Resort, began work at the resort as an intern in In 1994, he returned to Tan-Tar-A, serving in various management positions. He was promoted to General Manager in From the St. Louis area, Dehner attended the University of Missouri-Columbia, graduating in 1988 with a Degree in Hotel/Restaurant Management.

58

59

60

61

62

63 Real Estate Predictions 2018

64 So, Lets see how I did on my first attempt at our Predictions last year? My first Prediction for 2017 was: I Predict that 2017 will be another positive year in the real estate market at the lake with steady 4% - 6% gains in number of sales and slightly larger 6% - 8% gains in volume. Volume increasing more than sales is the only part of this prediction that was even close! With gains of 14% in sales and 24% in volume I would say I missed the mark big time! Grade???

65 My second Prediction was: I predict that 2017 will be another year of the incredible low interest rates with not more than slight ½ to 1 point fluctuations. Interest rates in 2017 have stayed consistently under 4.5% within a point of the 2016 low of mid to high 3.5% to 4% in Grade???

66 My third prediction was: Condo sales in 2016 have been flat compared to 2015 in both number of sales and volume will show an increase in the number of condo sales and a greater increase in the sales volume. I also predict new condominium project developments once again being announced for construction. Condo sales increased 21% and 22% in volume over There are also new projects on the horizon such as The Condo s at Lakeside, a brand new project in planning off of Passover Rd in Osage Beach as well as several projects that are now being finished & renewed such as The Cypress at the Lake and West Palms on the Lake. Grade???

67 My fourth prediction was: Continued growth in the Commercial Market at the Lake. We may not experience the 31% increase we did in 2016 but a 20% increase is likely in Unfortunately our Commercial market declined as compared to 2016 by 31% in sales and 28% in volume. Grade??? - I don t want to know!!!

68 My final prediction was: We will see a continued improvement in our Off-Water Residential Market. We are continuing to grow as a full time community and the 10% gain we saw this year isn t done, I predict another strong 8-10% gain in this market in % increase in sales was right on, but I didn t anticipate a 22% increase in Volume! Grade???

69 Predictions for

70 1. Again in 2018 Interest rates will remain stable with only slight gains of.5% to 1% possible which will continue to bolster consumer confidence. 2. Condo sales will again see large gains due to the new units entering the market and healthy resale market continuing. Number of sales will increase 10% - 12% and volume increases will again be over 15%. 3. Large gains compared to 2017 will also come in the waterfront luxury market sales over $500,000, both in number of sales and in volume. I predict a double digit increases of 10% or more in this sector due to new inventory and increases in average sale prices.

71 Our Speakers Today Steve Snook, RE/MAX MidStates Jason Whittle, RE/MAX Lake of the Ozarks Fred Dehner, Driftwood Acquisitions Sam Adler, Osage Commons Special Thanks to Tarah Kenney, Phoebe Long, George Bogema, and Osage National!

72 Thank You to our Sponsor Ed Lowther

73 Thank You Remember, the 2017 Symposium Information can be found on our Website: