Lunchtime Data Talk. Housing Finance Policy Center. Housing Data: Home Sales, Affordability, and Realtor/Builder Activity

Transcription

1 Housing Finance Policy Center Lunchtime Data Talk Housing Data: Home Sales, Affordability, and Realtor/Builder Activity Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors David Crowe, National Association of Home Builders December 9, 2013

2 NAR Housing Data Existing Home Sales Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS Presentation at the Urban Institute Washington, D.C. December 9,

3 NAR Data Existing Home Sales 3

4 8,000,000 Existing Home Sales 20% cumulative increase over 2 years 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,

5 Median Home Price $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,

6 Pending Sales (Contracts, not Closings) Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Source: NAR 6

7 Data Collection Multiple Listing Service reporting by summary (form) Electronic Connection to Individual Multiple Listing Service State Association Aggregators Across MLSs in the state One state-association MLS 7

8 Multiple Listing Services Multiple listing services enable brokers to cooperate and make the real estate transaction more efficient There are over 900 multiple listing services in the US Monthly Panel About 200 boards are selected to participate in the panel upon which monthly home sales estimate is based Boards are selected for representativeness and reliability 8

9 Existing Home Sales Overview Quarterly data Single Family Median Prices by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for approximately 150 MSAs Condominium Median Prices by Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) for approximately 60 MSAs Metro-level Affordability Index Qualifying Income by MSA Affordability Index by MSA 9

10 Pending Home Sales Pending sales are those identified by MLSs as pending, typically under contract Total pending counts in the MLS or Newly pending that occurred during the month Pending home sales data is reported as an index 10

11 Periodic Revisions Validate private industry source with other outside, preferably with public data Changes to For-Sale-By-Owner home sales Flipping of a home (re-sell within 12 months) Re-benchmarked figure excludes the second sale, while they are counted as twice in MLS count Enlarged MLS geographic coverage Some of the home sales are not an increase in home sales but are just due to enlarged sampled areas 11

12 Last Revision 8000 Annual Figures Old and New old new

13 What was Revised? No Revision to Median Home Price No Revision to Months Supply of Inventory Downward Revision to Home Sales Downward Revision to Inventory No Changes to Reported Financial Statements by Brokerages No Changes to Homeownership Rate No Changes to Local MLS data on Sales and Prices No Changes to Mortgage Default and Foreclosure No Changes to Underwater Status 13

14 Home Sellers and Their Experience Exhibit 6-27 METHOD USED TO SELL HOME, (Percentage Distribution) Sold home using an agent or broker 79% 83% 82% 85% 84% 85% 84% 85% 88% 87% For-sale-by-owner (FSBO) Sold to home buying company Other Source: NAR Home Buyer and Seller Survey 14

15 Future Rebenchmark Plans Rebenchmark as better source of data becomes more readily available or due to notable data drift Courthouse Data LPS, CoreLogic, DataQuick Realtor Property Resource (RPR) Utilizing detailed property level data of both deeds records and MLS information as potential future source Exploring the Development of Repeat-Price Index using Timely MLS data 15

16 Home Builder Data Urban Institute December 9, 2013 David Crowe Chief Economist 16

17 New Home Sales 17

18 New Home Sales Collected by Census Bureau, funded by HUD Released roughly 17 th working day of month Sample is roughly1 in 50 new homes From list of building permits and canvassing in non-permit areas (<2%) Four types (only 1 st is included): houses built for sale (whether sold or not) where the house and land are sold as a package contractor-built houses where the owner of the land hires a general contractor to build the house owner-built houses where the owner of the land builds the house him/herself or acts as the general contractor houses built for rent Each month also includes revisions to previous 3 months Each April revisions to 27 months SA data Signed contract moment (similar to NAR pending home sale) 18

19 19 New Home Sales History (000s) ,000 1,200 1,400 Jan-63 Dec-64 Nov-66 Oct-68 Sep-70 Aug-72 Jul-74 Jun-76 May-78 Apr-80 Mar-82 Feb-84 Jan-86 Dec-87 Nov-89 Oct-91 Sep-93 Aug-95 Jul-97 Jun-99 May-01 Apr-03 Mar-05 Feb-07 Jan-09 Dec-10 Nov-12

20 New Home Sales Confidence Interval July to August % 68% 56% 40% 44% 20% 0% -20% 23% 8% 9% -7% 20% -28% 15% -14% 16% -15% -40% -38% US NE MW SO WE -45% 20

21 Jan-68 Nov-69 Sep-71 Jul-73 May-75 Mar-77 Jan-79 Nov-80 Sep-82 Jul-84 May-86 Mar-88 Jan-90 Nov-91 Sep-93 Jul-95 May-97 Mar-99 Jan-01 Nov-02 Sep-04 Jul-06 May-08 Mar-10 Jan-12 Home Sales (000s) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, ,600 1,400 1,200 1, Existing Home Sales (L) New Home Sales (R) 21

22 Jan '85 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan '96 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan '07 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun New Home Sales and NAHB HMI 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, (000s) New Home Sales (L) HMI Expected Sales (R) 22

23 Housing Opportunity Index 23

24 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index The share of homes recently sold affordable to median income Affordability for 250+ MSAs Quarterly since 1991 Recent sales from CoreLogic Income from HUD Interest rate fro FHFA 30 year fixed rate mortgage, 28% of income to PITI, 10% down payment, local taxes and insurance from ACS 24

25 Q192 Q393 Q195 Q396 Q198 Q399 Q101 Q104 Q305 Q107 Q308 Q110 Q311 Q113 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index

26 Large Metro Ranks 10 Most Affordable Metro Areas 10 Least Affordable Metro Areas 1 Indianapolis-Carmel, IN 1 San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA ^^^ 1 Syracuse, NY 2 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA ^^^ 3 Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA 3 Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA ^^^ 4 Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA 4 New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ ^^^ 5 Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 5 San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 6 Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL 6 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA 7 Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA 7 Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA 8 Wichita, KS 8 Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA ^^^ 9 Toledo, OH 9 Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT 10 Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN 10 Honolulu, HI 26

27 Small Metro Ranks 10 Most Affordable Metro Areas 10 Least Affordable Metro Areas 1 Kokomo, IN 1 Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA 2 Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ 2 San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA 3 Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL 3 Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA 4 Bay City, MI 4 Napa, CA 5 Springfield, OH 5 Salinas, CA 6 Dover, DE 6 Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA 7 Monroe, MI 7 Laredo, TX 8 Salisbury, MD 8 Barnstable Town, MA 9 Cumberland, MD-WV 9 Ocean City, NJ 10 Fairbanks, AK 10 Bend, OR 27

28 NAR Data Affordability Index 28

29 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 250 Falling Affordability to 5-year Low But still 5 th best in 40 years

30 Housing Affordability Index Component Factors: 1) median sales price; 2) mortgage rate; 3) median family income Ratio of Qualifying Income to Median Income Index interpretation: Index=100 when median family income qualifies for an 80% mortgage on a median priced existing single-family home. Index > 100 indicates that more than half of buyers can afford to purchase a median-priced home. The higher the index, more can buy 30

31 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Median Family Income

32 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 30-yr fixed mortgage rate % 32

33 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul 20 Rising Home Prices (% change from one year ago) Blue = NAR Median Price Red = Case-Shiller Index

34 NAR Data REALTOR Survey Data 34

35 REALTORS Confidence Index Monthly survey of REALTORS providing information on residential market conditions and outlook Random, on-line survey Approximately 3,000 responses each month 35

36 Questionnaire Market Conditions. Current Conditions Confidence Index for SF, Condo. Six Months Ahead Confidence Index for SF, Condo. Buyer and Seller Traffic Index. Distressed Sales Volume, Price Discounts, Property Condition. Time on Market. Buyer and Seller Characteristics. Cash/Non-cash. Type of Buyer First Time, Investor Current Issues Special Questions e.g., impacts of government shutdown, etc. 36

37 Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul All-Cash Buyers Stayed High even when mortgages were cheap 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% (Cash share as % of total home sales) Normal Range 37

38 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Buyer and Seller Traffic How Much from Gov t Shutdown and Dysfunction? Buyer Seller 38

39 NAHB Surveys 39

40 NAHB Builders Surveys Housing Markets Single-family (monthly since 1984) Multifamily (quarterly since 2003) Remodeling (quarterly since 2001) 55+ (quarterly since 2008) Leading Markets Index 40

41 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index Released monthly on day before starts Survey in first 10 days of month Same questions on Current sales (good, fair, poor), Expected sales over next 6 months (good, fair, poor) Traffic (high/very high, average, low/very low) Diffusion index based from 0 to 100 (good - poor, divide by 2 and add 50) (after seasonal adjustment) National and four census regions 41

42 Jan '85 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan '96 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb Jan '07 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

43 Jan '85 Jan '87 Jan '89 Jan '91 Jan '93 Jan '95 Jan '97 Jan '99 Jan '01 Jan '03 Jan '05 Jan '07 Jan '09 Jan '11 Jan '13 NAHB HMI & Single-family Starts 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, (000s) SF Starts (L) HMI (R) 43

44 NAHB Multifamily Housing Market Index Quarterly 1 ½ month after end of quarter Production and vacancy indexes Production index: Stronger, same, weaker for low income, market rate and condo markets Vacancy index: Higher, same, lower for Class A, B and C Diffusion index 44

45 Mar-03 Aug-03 Jan-04 Jun-04 Nov-04 Apr-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jul-06 Dec-06 May-07 Oct-07 Mar-08 Aug-08 Jan-09 Jun-09 Nov-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Jul-11 Dec-11 May-12 Oct-12 Mar-13 Multifamily Housing Market Index - Production (000s) MF starts (L) Production Index (R) 45

46 1-Mar-03 1-Aug-03 1-Jan-04 1-Jun-04 1-Nov-04 1-Apr-05 1-Sep-05 1-Feb-06 1-Jul-06 1-Dec-06 1-May-07 1-Oct-07 1-Mar-08 1-Aug-08 1-Jan-09 1-Jun-09 1-Nov-09 1-Apr-10 1-Sep-10 1-Feb-11 1-Jul-11 1-Dec-11 1-May-12 1-Oct-12 1-Mar-13 1-Aug-13 Multifamily Housing Market Index - Vacancy Census Vacancy Rate (L) NAHB Vancacy Index (R) 46

47 Remodeling Market Index Current market conditions Major additions & alterations for owners and renters Minor additions & alterations for owners and renters Maintenance & repair for owners and renters Future market conditions Calls for bids for owners and renters Committed work in next 6 months for owners and renters Backlog of committed jobs Appointments for proposals Diffusion index using: higher, about the same, lower ratings 47

48 Remodeling Market Indexes RMI Current conditions Future conditions 48

49 NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index Progress toward normality Compare most recent 12 months levels to normal year Single-family permits from Census- last normal House price index from Freddie Mac - last normal Employment from BLS last normal 2007 Index is average of three ratios Monthly on fourth working day All 360+ MSAs 49

50 NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index

51 NAHB/First American Leading Markets Index 51 Rank Oct-2013 Bottom 20% 20% to 40% 40% to 60% 60% to 80% Top 20% Relative to Normal < 74% 74% - 81% 81% - 87% 87% - 97% 97% <

52 Questions? Answers: eyeonhousing.org 52

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