The Casey Report. E.B. Tucker
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1 The Casey Report E.B. Tucker
2 How to profit from collapse Everyone knows what s already happened Few people can figure out what happens next Think about incentives What will people do next? These people will be customers somewhere
3 % of population owning residence Housing Bust - Landlords Win U.S. Home Ownership Rate Easy credit meant everyone was a qualified buyer Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis "Alarge group of people that should not have purchased homes will become renters and stay renters for a decade"
4 Nobody Wanted Rental Property
5 It s Lonely At The Bottom April 2008 Mortgaged for $170,100 April 2009 Lis Pendens Filed October 2009 Judgement granted $181, January 2010 Courthouse auction $28,000 February 2010 E.B. buys for $33,000 October 2015 Total rent received $75,329.78
6 What s Happening Today? What will happen next? What will people want when that happens? Can we buy what they ll want tomorrow at a discount today?
7 It s dangerous to be right when the government is wrong Voltaire
8 My Trip To The St. Louis Fed
9 These Guys Are Dangerous
10 Dangerous Propaganda
11 Fed Market Distortions
12 Millions of vehicles Auto Sales Highest Ever U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Number of newly registered vehicles Source: U.S. Department of Commerce & Bloomberg U.S. auto sales are higher than the peak of last decade's credit bonanza...
13 Meanwhile Median Annual Income 2011 $USD Median Annual Income 2011 Dollars 58,000 57,000 56,000 55,000 54,000 53,000 52,000 51,000 U.S. Personal Income The average car buyer makes less money than he did last decade... 50,000 Source: Bloomberg
14 Pay Later.Or Never U.S. Auto Loans Outstanding 1.1 $USD Trillions Total value of loans Outstanding now over $1,000,000,000, Source: Bloomberg / Federal Reserve
15 What We Know Fed created distortions in the auto finance market 0% car loans for 84 months Few American cars last 84 months Auto sales at record high while income down Look for more confirmation that this trend is ending
16 Steel Market As An Indication Steel Applications by Market Estimated Shipments 2013 Automotive Steel 26% Construction Automotive Machinery & Equipment Energy Container Appliabces National Defense Other Source: American Iron and Steel Institute
17 Plenty of Unused Capacity 100 U.S. Steel Production Capacity 90 % of Capacity Used Steel production capacity is extremely slack... It s the sign of a weak market Source: Bloomberg / American Iron and Steel Institute
18 Steel Production Down
19 What We Know Auto sales at all-time high Credit to blame 0% interest for 7 years can t get much easier The Fed borrowed tomorrow s auto production Auto sales likely already turned down Average car/suv uses 1/1.5 ton of steel Steel market incredibly weak People will now drive cars longer they ll be harder to buy They ll have to fix the car they can t afford to trade
20 The Parts Market OEM Parts AutoZone / O Reilly Pick It Yourself
21 Retail Auto Parts $ Per Share O'Reilly Automotive Inc (ORLY) Parts retailer with 4,465 locations SalesGrowth -10% Op Margin -18% Debt/EBITDA - 0.9x ORLY US OReilly Automotive Inc Source: Bloomberg
22 Retail Auto Parts $ Per Share AutoZone Inc (AZO) Parts retailer with 5,069 locations Sales Growth - 7.5% Op Margin -19% Debt/EBITDA - 2.1x AZO US AutoZone Inc Source: Bloomberg
23 Pick It Yourself $ Per Share LKQ Corp (LKQ) 347 North American salvage yards Sales Growth -18% Op Margin -10% Debt/EBITDA - 2.1x LKQ US LKQ Corp LKQ stock ran with retail auto parts stores until Source: Bloomberg
24 Strong Dollar = Weak Steel Market Dollar Index Value Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index Dollar vs less circulated currencies U.S. Dollar shot higher just about the time LKQ disconnected from parts retailers (ORLY) & (AZO) Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: China, Mexico, Taiwan, Israel, Korea, Singapore, Hong Kong, Venezuela, Argentina etc Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
25 How It Works The Scrap Business Buy wrecked cars at auction or from owners Inventory parts Sales counter in front office fills orders slowly stripping the car Ideally 100% return on car purchase in 180 days Sell metal car body as steel scrap Actual Scrap Yard Clearwater, FL
26 The Most Fragmented Business I ve Ever Seen Engine Blocks Sold For Chinese Re-Building Even This Car Turned a Profit
27 LKQ Held Back By Steel 2011 H1 scrap metal 16% of total sales 2015 H1 scrap metal 7% of total sales Strong Dollar is bad for steel and LKQ Change in dollar trend will benefit LKQ Slowing new car sales will benefit LKQ parts business
28 LKQ History The scrap/parts business is incredibly fragmented LKQ formed in 1998 by entrepreneur scrap yard owners in Florida, Michigan, Ohio & Wisconsin Made 200 acquisitions of small local scrap yards Domestic growth is almost zero now LKQ is a typical big company and a far cry from it s entrepreneurial roots It s LKQ vs a thousand local operators The stock will perform in line with changing macroeconomic factors
29 Let s Buy LKQ in Small group of yard owners gets together realizes LKQ has no challenger Group agrees to combine businesses and build a giant Group agrees to May 2015 IPO Group takes shares in exchange for contributing business to combined entity May 2015 IPO at $8 per share Stock market has absolutely no clue how FENX works
30 Confusion = Opportunity Fenix Parts Inc (FENX) Newly combined group of formerly independant operators Fenix Parts Inc $ Per Share May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Source: Bloomberg
31 Fenix Parts Inc. Shares outstanding 20 million Company will use stock, cash & debt to make accretive acquisitions August 2015 bought Bayville, NJ yard October 2015 bought Forest City, NC yard October 2015 bought Tri-City Greensboro, NC yard Company can continue to buy yards adjusting purchase price for financing conditions Will eventually grow into LKQ s only viable competition
32
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