The Virginia Tech U.S. Forest Service November 2015 Housing Commentary: Part A

Transcription

1 The Virginia Tech U.S. Forest Service November Housing Commentary: Part A Urs Buehlmann Department of Sustainable Biomaterials College of Natural Resources & Environment Virginia Tech Blacksburg, VA buehlmann@gmail.com Delton Alderman Forest Products Marketing Unit Forest Products Laboratory U.S. Forest Service Madison, WI dalderman@fs.fed.us 216 Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University VCE-71NP Virginia Cooperative Extension programs and employment are open to all, regardless of age, color, disability, gender, gender identity, gender expression, national origin, political affiliation, race, religion, sexual orientation, genetic information, veteran status, or any other basis protected by law. An equal opportunity/affirmative action employer. Issued in furtherance of Cooperative Extension work, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Virginia State University, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture cooperating. Edwin J. Jones, Director, Virginia Cooperative Extension, Virginia Tech, Blacksburg; M. Ray McKinnie, Interim Administrator, 189 Extension Program, Virginia State University, Petersburg.

2 Table of Contents Slide 3: Executive Summary Slide 4: Housing Scorecard Slide 5: Wood Use in Construction Slide 7: U.S. Home Ownership Slide 9: 216 Housing Forecasts Slide 12: New Housing Starts Slide 15: Regional Housing Starts Slide 21: New Housing Permits Slide 23: Regional New Housing Permits Slide 3: Housing Under Construction Slide 32: Regional Under Construction Slide 36: Housing Completions Slide 38: Regional Housing Completions Slide 42: Multifamily Insights Slide 43: New Single Family House Sales Slide 46: Regional SF House Sales & Price Slide 47: SF Sales, Price, & Median Income Slide 5: Construction Spending Slide 52: Construction Spending Slide 53: Existing House Sales Slide 54: Existing Sales by Price & Region Slide 55: First-Time Purchasers Slide 58: Existing Sales Insights Slide 61: Summary Slide 62: Virginia Tech Disclaimer Slide 63: USDA Disclaimer This report is a free monthly service of Virginia Tech. Past issues can be found at: To request the report, please buehlmann@gmail.com

3 Executive Summary November's housing data was predominately positive on a monthly and year-over-year basis. Most sectors improved with the exceptions of existing house sales and new housing completions. From a regional perspective, all data were mixed across sectors. Housing has improved incrementally since January 21. As written then, the housing market remains far from normal and the housing market still faces several obstacles. New sales are appear to be bifurcated, as the aggregate share of lower-valued price category homes is declining while the higher-valued group share is increasing. This is evidenced by viewing new sales plotted against real median income. Further, viewing home ownership rates provides some evidence of income decline and lower-end new house construction. Multifamily construction is solid; yet the number of multifamily units remains less than permitted and constructed in the early 197s. This month we have a slide that is dedicated to housing forecasts, from 1,154, to 1,435,. For the most part, predictions are bound in a fairly tight range. The key take away, housing market remains less than historical averages. We also introduce railroad lumber and wood products shipments plotted against new housing permits, starts, and new house sales. The aim is to see if shipments yield some type of insight into the three sectors mentioned. Please note, we realize that not all wood products are shipped via rail and that all wood products are not utilized in new housing. This report provides information on housing, economics, private and government indicators, and forecasts for the global and United States economy. Segment A of the commentary is data based and Segment B contains current housing market information and economic material. We hope you find this commentary beneficial.

4 November Housing Scorecard M/M Y/Y Housing Starts 1.5% 16.5% Single Family Starts 7.6% 14.6% Housing Permits 11.% 19.5% Housing Completions 3.2% 9.2% New Single-Family House Sales 5.7% 21.6% Existing House Sales 1 4.8% 6.2% Private Residential Construction Spending.3% 1.8% Single Family Construction Spending.6% 9.3% M/M = month-over-month; Y/Y = year-over-year Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction; 1 National Association of Realtors (NAR )

5 New Construction s Percentage of Wood Products Consumption Non-structural panels: housing All Sawnwood: housing 18% Other markets 26% Other markets 82% 74% 36% Structural panels: housing 64% Other markets Source: U.S. Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects,

6 Repair and Remodeling s Percentage of Wood Products Consumption 25% All Sawnwood: housing 16% Non-structural panels: housing Other markets Other markets 75% 84% 16% Non-structural panels: housing 84% Other markets Source: U.S. Forest Service. Howard, J. and D. McKeever U.S. Forest Products Annual Market Review and Prospects,

7 U.S. Home Ownership Home ownership rate: 64.4%.7% more than the 3 rd quarter 214 rate (63.7%) Source: 1/27/15 Return Return to TOC

8 U.S. Home Ownership BUT Rates for Most Age Groups Are Well Below That Point. Change in Homeownership Rate (percentage points) Source: 6/29/15 Return Return to TOC

9 216 Housing Forecasts Organization Total Starts Single Family Starts APA - The Engineered Wood Association a 1, New House Sales Fannie Mae b 1, Freddie Mac c 1,33. National Association of Homebuilders d 1, Export Development Canada e 1,435. Forest Economic Advisors f 1, Metrostudy g 1, Mortgage Bankers Association h 1, The Conference Board i 1,32. UCLA Ziman Center for Real Estate j 1,42. Urban Land Institute k 842. BMO Capital Markets l 1,13. Dodge Data & Analytics m 1, Goldman Sachs n 1,3. Royal Bank of Canada o 1,356.5 Scotiabank p 1,3. TD Economics q 1,34. Wells Fargo LLC r 1, in thousands

10 216 Housing Forecasts References a- b- c- e- f- g- h- i- j- k- l- m- d- n- o- p- q- r-

11 Private Indicators: Wells Fargo LLC U.S. Housing Starts & Forecast: Source: US DOC and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Source: 12/4/15 Return Return to TOC

12 New Housing Starts Total Starts* Single Family Starts * All start data are presented at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). ** US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation. Multifamily 2-4 unit Starts** Multifamily 5 unit Starts November 1,173, 768, 7, 398, October 1,62, 714, 11, 337, 214 1,7, 76, 9, 328, M/M change 1.5% 7.6% -36.4% 18.1% Y/Y change 16.5% 14.6% -22.2% 21.3% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

13 New Housing Starts^ Total Starts Single Family Starts ^ Not seasonally adjusted; in thousands of units. ** US DOC does not report 2 to 4 multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation. Multifamily 2-4 unit Starts** Multifamily 5 unit Starts November October M/M change -.1% -5.1% -4.% 12.3% Y/Y change 18.5% 17.3% 15.% 21.6% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

14 Total SF Housing Starts 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, SF & MF Starts: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Starts: RHS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Starts SF Starts 2-4 MF Starts 5 MF Starts SF & MF Starts: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Starts: RHS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Starts SF Starts 2-4 MF Starts 5 MF Starts 2,2 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,4 1,2 1, Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

15 New Housing Starts by Region Northeast (NE) Total Starts NE SF Starts NE MF Starts** November October M/M change -8.5% 1.7% -15.6% Y/Y change 21.5% 9.1% 34.6% Midwest (MW) Total Starts MW SF Starts MW MF Starts November October M/M change. -4.4% 8.2% Y/Y change 1.2% -.9% 4.7% * All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest; in thousands. ** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

16 New Housing Starts by Region South (S) Total Starts S SF Starts S MF Starts** November October M/M change 21.3% 8.8% 57.3% Y/Y change 35.5% 13.3% 121.5% West (W) Total Starts W SF Starts W MF Starts November October M/M change 6.3% 15.1% -13.7% Y/Y change -7.3% 31.7% -58.9% * All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West; in thousands. ** US DOC does not report multifamily starts directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

17 SF Housing Starts by Region SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug S SF Starts NE SF Starts MW SF Starts W SF Starts SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Starts MW SF Starts S SF Starts W SF Starts Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

18 MF Housing Starts by Region 25 SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE MF Starts MW MF Starts S MF Starts W MF Starts 25 SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE MF Starts MW MF Starts S MF Starts W MF Starts Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

19 Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Starts 1, LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Starts 1,4 9, 1,2 8, 7, 1, 6, 8 5, 4, 6 3, 4 2, 1, 2 - Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Starts Sources: Association of American Railroads, Rail Time Indicators report; 1/11/16 & U.S. DOC-Construction; 12/26/15 Return Return to TOC TOC

20 Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Starts: 6-month Offset 1, LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Starts 1,2 9, 8, 1, 7, 8 6, 5, 6 4, 3, 4 2, 2 1, - Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Starts (6-mo. offset) In this graph, January 27 lumber shipments are contrasted with July 27 starts. The purpose is to discover if lumber shipments relate to future single-family starts. Also, it is realized that trucking hauls lumber; however, to our knowledge comprehensive trucking data is not available. Sources: Association of American Railroads, Rail Time Indicators report; 1/11/16 & U.S. DOC-Construction; 12/26/15 Return Return to TOC TOC

21 New Housing Permits Total Permits * Single Family Permits Multifamily 2-4 unit Permits Multifamily 5 unit Permits November 1,289, 723, 27, 539, October 1,161, 715, 34, 412, 214 1,79, 663, 28, 388, M/M change 11.% 1.1% -2.6% 3.8% Y/Y change 19.5% 9.% -3.6% 38.9% * All data are SAAR Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

22 Total New Housing Permits 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, SF & MF Permits: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Permits: RHS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Permits SF Permits 2-4 MF Permits 5 MF Permits 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Total Permits: RHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Permits: RHS 1,6 1,4 6 1,2 5 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Permits SF Permits 2-4 MF Permits 5 MF Permits Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

23 * All data are SAAR; in thousands New Housing Permits by Region NE Total Permits NE SF Permits NE MF Permits November October M/M change. 5.9% -3.7% Y/Y change -3.% -11.5% -4.1% MW Total Permits MW SF Permits MW MF Permits November October M/M change 22.% 1.9% 52.% Y/Y change 47.6% 9.3% 128.3% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

24 * All data are SAAR New Housing Permits by Region S Total Permits S SF Permits S MF Permits November October M/M change 5.6% -1.8% 2.4% Y/Y change 21.% 8.9% 48.4% W Total Permits W SF Permits W MF Permits November October M/M change 21.7% 6.2% 46.5% Y/Y change 13.1% 17.8% 8.% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

25 Housing Permits by Region SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Permits MW SF Permits S SF Permits W SF Permits SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Permits MW SF Permits S SF Permits W SF Permits Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

26 SF Housing Permits by Region SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Permits MW SF Permits S SF Permits W SF Permits SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Permits MW SF Permits S SF Permits W SF Permits Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

27 MF Housing Permits by Region 3 SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug NE MF Permits MW MF Permits S-MF Permits W-MF Permits Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE MF Permits MW MF Permits S-MF Permits W-MF Permits Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

28 Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Permits 1, LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Permits 14 9, 12 8, 7, 1 6, 8 5, 4, 6 3, 4 2, 1, 2 - Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Permits Sources: Association of American Railroads, Rail Time Indicators report; 1/11/16 & U.S. DOC-Construction; 12/26/15 Return Return to TOC TOC

29 Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. SF Housing Permits: 6-month Offset 1, LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: SF Permits 12 9, 8, 1 7, 8 6, 5, 6 4, 3, 4 2, 2 1, - Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) SF Permits (6-mo. offset) In this graph, January 27 lumber shipments are contrasted with July 27 permits. The purpose is to discover if lumber shipments relate to future single-family building permits. Also, it is realized that trucking hauls lumber; however, to our knowledge comprehensive trucking data is not available. Sources: Association of American Railroads, Rail Time Indicators report; 1/11/16 & U.S. DOC-Construction; 12/26/15 Return Return to TOC TOC

30 * All data are SAAR New Housing Under Construction Total Under Construction* Single Family Under Constructions Multifamily 2-4 unit** Under Constructions Multifamily 5 unit Under Construction November 965, 416, 11, 538, October 944, 46, 11, 527, , 36, 12, 445, M/M change 2.2% 2.5%. 2.1% Y/Y change 18.3% 15.6% -8.3% 2.9% ** US DOC does not report 2-4 multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

31 Total Housing Under Construction 1, SF & MF Under Construction: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Under Construction: RHS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Under Construction SF Under Construction 2-4 MF Under Construction 5 MF Under Construction SF & MF Under Construction: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Under Construction: RHS 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, , Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Under Construction SF Under Construction 2-4 MF Under Construction 5 MF Under Construction 75 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

32 New Housing Under Construction by Region NE Total NE SF NE MF** November October M/M change.6% 2.1%. Y/Y change 37.8% 17.1% 53.% MW Total MW SF MW MF November October M/M change 4.1% 3.% 5.5% Y/Y change -.8% 9.5% -6.5% All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest; in thousands. ** US DOC does not report multifamily units under construction directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

33 New Housing Under Construction by Region S Total S SF S MF** November October M/M change 2.9% 1.5% 4.3% Y/Y change 16.2% 14.4% 21.1% W Total W SF W MF November October M/M change 1.3% 4.5% -.7% Y/Y change 21.9% 22.4% 22.7% All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West; in thousands. ** US DOC does not report multi-family units under construction directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

34 SF Housing Under Construction by Region SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Under Construction MW SF Under Construction S SF Under Construction W SF Under Construction 25 SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Under Construction MW SF Under Construction S SF Under Construction W SF Under Construction Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

35 MF Housing Under Construction by Region 25 SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May NE MF Under Construction MW MF Under Construction S MF Under Construction W MF Under Construction SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE MF Under Construction MW MF Under Construction S MF Under Construction W MF Under Construction Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

36 New Housing Completions Total Completions* Single-Family Completions Multi-Family 2-4 unit** Completions Multi-Family 5 unit Permits November 947, 632, 9, 36, October 978, 63, 8, 34, , 69, 14, 244, M/M change -3.2%.3% 12.5% -1.% Y/Y change 9.2% 3.8% -35.7% 25.4% All data are SAAR ** US DOC does not report multifamily completions directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

37 Total Housing Completions 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, SF & MF Completed: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Completed: LHS Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Completions SF Completions 2-4 MF Completions 5 MF Completions 2,5 2, 1,5 1, SF & MF Completed: LHS SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Total Completed: LHS 1,2 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total Completions SF Completions 2-4 MF Completions 5 MF Completions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

38 New Housing Completions by Region NE Total NE SF NE MF** November October M/M change -1.8% 1.6% -24.7% Y/Y change 98.1% 23.8% -25.% MW Total MW SF MW MF November October M/M change -39.4% -2.8% -74.1% Y/Y change -28.8% -19.2% -72.7% All data are SAAR; NE = Northeast and MW = Midwest; in thousands. ** US DOC does not report multifamily completions directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

39 New Housing Completions by Region S Total S SF S MF** November October M/M change 4.8% 6.9%. Y/Y change 9.2% 8.8% 1.% W Total W SF W MF November October M/M change 8.8% -3.4% 23.8% Y/Y change 1.3% 2.2% 31.6% All data are SAAR; S = South and W = West; in thousands. ** US DOC does not report multi-family completions directly, this is an estimation. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

40 SF Housing Completions by Region SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May NE SF Completions MW SF Completions S SF Completions W SF Completions SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Completions MW SF Completions S SF Completions W SF Completions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

41 MF Housing Completions by Region SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May NE MF Completions MW MF Completions S MF Completions W MF Completions SAAR = Seasonally adjusted annual rate; in thousands Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE MF Completions MW MF Completions S MF Completions W MF Completions Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/16/15

42 MF Construction Insights Rising Share of New Multifamily Units in Large Buildings An increasing number of newly-built multifamily units are found in larger buildings, as measured by the number of apartments per building. According to Census Bureau data of multifamily completions, the share of new multifamily units in buildings with 5 or more units reached a data series high of 48% during 214. The share of new units in large buildings (5+ units or more) has been rising steadily since 1996, after reaching a data series low of 8% during 1994 and 1995, albeit with one exception. The share declined to 28% in 211 after recording a 43% mark for Robert Dietz, Ph.D., Vice-President, Tax and Market Analysis, NAHB Source: 1/5/15

43 New Single Family House Sales * All sales data are SAAR New SF Sales* Median Price Mean Price Month s Supply November 49, $35, $374,9 5.8 October 47, $286,9 $358, , $32,7 $358,8 5.6 M/M change 4.3% 6.3% 4.7% 1.7% Y/Y change 9.1%.7% 4.5% 1.8% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/23/15

44 New SF House Sales 1,4 1,2 in thousands; SAAR 1, Jan Total SF Sales Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov 6 5 in thousands; SAAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Total SF Sales Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/23/15

45 New SF House Sales by Region 7 6 in thousands; SAAR Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug NE SF Sales MW SF Sales S-SF Sales W-SF Sales in thousands; SAAR Sep Oct Nov Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov NE SF Sales MW SF Sales S-SF Sales W-SF Sales Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/23/15

46 New SF House Sales by Region and Price Category NE SF Sales MW SF Sales S SF Sales W SF Sales Total SF Sales November 25, 53, 277, 135, 49, October 35, 58, 265, 112, 47, , 59, 232, 129, 449, M/M change -28.6% -8.6% 4.5% 2.5% 4.3% Y/Y change -13.8% -1.2% 19.4% 4.7% 9.1% < $15m $15- $199.9m $ m $3- $399.9m $4- $499.9m $5- $749.9m > $75m Total 1,2,3 November 1, 3, 13, 7, 5, 3, 2, 34, October 2, 5, 14, 8, 4, 3, 2, 38, 214 2, 4, 9, 6, 4, 4, 1, 31, M/M change -5.% -4.% -7.1% -12.5% 25.% % Y/Y change -5.% -2.5% 44.4% 16.7% 25.% -25.% 1.% -2.7% * All data are SAAR; 1 -Houses for which sales price were not reported have been distributed proportionally to those for which sales price was reported; 2 -Detail may not add to total because of rounding. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction: 12/23/15

47 New SF House Sales Price and Real Median Income 3 25 New Sales Price & Real Income: LHS SAAR New SF Sales: RHS 1,4, 1,2, 2 1,, 15 8, 6, 1 4, 5 2, Real Median Family Income Median Sales Price New SF Houses Sold New SF Sales 35 3 New Sales Price & Real Income: LHS SAAR New SF Sales: RHS 1,4, 1,2, 25 1,, 2 8, 15 6, 1 4, 5 2, Real Median Family Income Median Sales Price New SF Sold (Adjusted) New SF Sales Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-Construction-new sales and BEA-Table 1.1.9; 12/23/15

48 Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. New SF House Sales 1, LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: New SF Sales 1 9, 9 8, 8 7, 7 6, 6 5, 5 4, 4 3, 3 2, 2 1, 1 - Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) New SF Sales Sources: Association of American Railroads, Rail Time Indicators report; 1/11/16 & U.S. DOC-Construction; 12/26/15 Return Return to TOC TOC

49 Railroad Lumber & Wood Shipments vs. U.S. New SF House Sales: 1-year offset 1, LHS: Lumber shipments in thousands RHS: New SF Sales 7 9, 6 8, 7, 5 6, 4 5, 4, 3 3, 2 2, 1, 1 - Lumber & Wood Shipments (U.S. + Canada) New SF Sales (1-yr. offset) In this graph, January 27 lumber shipments are contrasted with January 27 new SF house sales. The purpose is to discover if lumber shipments relate to future new SF house sales. Also, it is realized that trucking hauls lumber; however, to our knowledge comprehensive trucking data is not available. Sources: Association of American Railroads, Rail Time Indicators report; 1/11/16 & U.S. DOC-Construction; 12/26/15 Return Return to TOC TOC

50 November Construction Spending November Private Construction: $427.9 billion (SAAR).3% more than the revised October estimate of $426.8 billion (SAAR) 1.8% greater than the November 214 estimate of $386.3 billion (SAAR) November SF construction: $226.7 billion (SAAR).6% more than October: $225.3 billion (SAAR) 9.3% greater than November 214: $27.4 billion (SAAR) November MF construction: $56.9 billion (SAAR) -.7% less than October: $57.4 billion (SAAR) 24.5% greater than November 214: $45.7 billion (SAAR) November Improvement C construction: $144.3 billion (SAAR).1% more than October: $144.1 billion (SAAR) 8.3% greater than November 214: $133.2 billion (SAAR) C The US DOC does not report improvement spending directly, this is an estimation. All data are SAARs and reported in nominal US$. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-C3 Construction: 1/4/16

51 Construction Spending: 2-November 5, SF, MF, RR: LHS in thousands; SAAR Total $: RHS 7, 45, 6, 4, 35, 5, 3, 4, 25, 2, 3, 15, 2, 1, 1, 5, - - Residential SF MF RR Reported in nominal US$. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-C3 Construction: 1/4/16

52 Construction Spending 25, SF, MF, & RR: LHS in thousands; SAAR Total Residential: RHS 43, 425, 2, 42, 415, 15, 41, 45, 1, 4, 5, 395, 39, Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Residential SF MF RR 385, The US DOC does not report improvement spending directly, this is an estimation. Reported in nominal US$. Source: U.S. Department of Commerce-C3 Construction: 1/4/16

53 Existing House Sales National Association of Realtors (NAR ) November sales: 4.7 million houses sold (SAAR) Distressed house sales: 9% of sales (7% foreclosures and 2% short-sales); 6% in October and 9% in November 214. All-cash sales: increased to 27%; 24% in October, and 25% (November 214). Individual investors still purchase a considerable portion of all cash sale houses 16% in November, 13% in October and 15% in November % of investors paid cash in November. Source: NAR 12/22/15

54 Existing House Sales Existing Sales Median Price Month s Supply November 4,76, $22,3 5.1 October 5,32, $219, ,95, $27,2 5. M/M change -1.5%.5% 6.3% Y/Y change -3.8% 6.3% 2.% NE Sales MW Sales S Sales W Sales November 69, 1,1, 1,98, 99, October 76, 1,3, 2,11, 1,15, , 1,13, 2,1, 1,4, M/M change -9.2% -15.4% -6.2% -13.9% Y/Y change 1.5% -2.7% -5.7% -4.8% * All sales data: SAAR Source: NAR 11/22/15

55 First-Time Purchasers National Association of Realtors (NAR ) First-Time Purchases 3% of sales in November 31% in October and 31% in November 214. American Enterprise Institute Center on Housing Risk First-Time Purchases 56.7 percent of primary owner-occupied home purchase mortgages with a government guarantee and 49.8% in November 214. Sources: NAR, 12/22/15; American Enterprise Institute: 12/14/15

56 Total Existing House Sales 3, SF, MF, & RR: LHS in thousands; SAAR Total Residential: RHS 8, 2,75 7, 2,5 2,25 6, 2, 5, 1,75 1,5 4, 1,25 3, 1, 75 2, 5 1, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov US NE MW S W - Source: NAR 12/22/15

57 Total Existing House Sales: 2,25 Regional Sales: LHS SAAR Total Sales: RHS 5,8 2, 5,6 1,75 5,4 1,5 5,2 1,25 5, 1, 4, ,6 25 4,4 - Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov US NE MW S W 4,2 Source: NAR 12/22/15

58 Existing House Sales Source: NAR 12/22/15

59 Total Existing House Sales: Source: NAR 12/22/15

60 Existing SF House Sales Price & Real Median Income 25 2 Income & Sales Price: LHS Total Existing Sales: RHS Real Median Family Income Median Sales Price Existing SF Sold Existing SF Sales 3 25 Income & Sales Price: LHS Total Existing Sales: RHS Real Median Family Income Median Sales Price Existing SF Sold (Adjusted) Existing SF Sales Source: NAR and BEA-Table 1.1.9; 12/22/15

61 Summary In summary: The housing market continues to move forward albeit incrementally. Multifamily remains steady; construction and sales of new single family houses in the upper price echelons are solid; and improvement or remodeling expenditures appear to be steady. The fact remains that in most housing data categories, construction and sales remain far less than historical averages. Existing house sales are strong this is good. Yet, from a wood products utilization perspective, the new housing sector is where the bulk of forest products are used and this is the housing sector that still has room for improvement. Pros: Cons: 1) Historically low interest rates are still in effect; 2) As a result, housing affordability is good for most of the country; 3) Household formations increased in Q4 214 (using occupied housing data from the October Current Population/Housing Vacancy surveys); 4) Some builders are beginning to focus on entry-level houses; and 5) Consumer attitudes towards housing are improving. 1) Job creation is consistent but some economists question the quantity and types of jobs being created; 2) Declining real median annual household incomes though increasing the past few months; 3) Strict home loan lending standards plus CFPB's new TILA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure rules; and 4) Global uncertainty???

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