2017 Economic Outlook

Transcription

1 2017 Economic Outlook January 25, 2017

2 What is the economic outlook for 2017? [ 2 ]

3 idk [ 3 ]

4 US Output Modest GDP growth in :Q3 was strong Productivity will be key to higher growth Chance of recession remain low [ 4 ]

5 Annual Wage Growth Employment growth is slow but steady Job-less claims are near 43-year low Skilled workers relatively scarce Income and wage gains suggest this is a supply issue [ 5 ]

6 Annual Inflation Relative full-employment Late term business cycle Inventory correction resolved in 2016 Inflation at highest level in nearly a decade [ 6 ]

7 Interest Rates Federal Reserve Policy has been neutral for some time 25-basis-point rate hikes in 2015 and 2016 Low tolerance for inflation >2% Expect to see multiple hikes in 2017 [ 7 ]

8 But. Real risks include Inflation (and politics) Economic policy uncertainty Irrational Exuberance with Republican control Global economic uncertainty [ 8 ]

9 Where we go is largely based on where we are. [ 9 ]

10 Months Current economic cycle Recession 100 Expansion Business Cycle [ 10 ]

11 Months How much longer? ? Business Cycle [ 11 ]

12 Slow and steady [ 12 ]

13 2016:Q3 [ 13 ]

14 Jobs and Unemployment [ 14 ]

15 Economic Policy Uncertainty Today is one of the relatively rare times that an incoming US president has not been handed an economy already in a recession or headed towards one. Steven McDonald, Chief Economist [ 15 ]

16 Consumer Sentiment Index Consumer perceptions PeaK Trough Linear (PeaK) Linear (Trough) Business Cycle [ 16 ]

17 100 US Presidential Terms (Months) Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 17 ]

18 Political Economic Cycles Past 72 years (864 months) 432 months of Republican presidency 432 months of Democrat presidency Generally we take 6 steps forward for every step back 5.55 month expansion for 1 month recession [ 18 ]

19 100 US Economic Expansion (Months) Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 19 ]

20 80% US Industrial Production - % Growth 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 20 ]

21 25,000 Total US Non-Farm Employment Growth (000 s) 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 - Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 21 ]

22 35% US Manufacturing Employment as Share of Total (End-of-term) 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 22 ]

23 4,000 Total US Manufacturing Employment Growth (000 s) 3,000 2,000 1,000 - (1,000) (2,000) (3,000) (4,000) (5,000) Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 23 ]

24 0.46 US Income Inequity (Gini Coeficient) Harry S. Truman* (Rosevelt) Dwight D. Eisenhower Lyndon B. Johnson* (JFK) Gerald Ford* (Nixon) Jimmy Carter Ronald Reagan George H. Bush Bill Clinton George W. Bush Barack Obama [ 24 ]

25 What does this mean for Florida and Tampa? [ 25 ]

26 Political Economic Cycles It is important to not underestimate the power of confident consumers. Strong economic foundations that currently exist will support future growth Hope alone that the current US political change will generate more growth, the 2017 Florida economy should continue on a positive trend. [ 26 ]

27 2016:Q1-Q2 GDP Annual Growth Rates [ 27 ]

28 2016:Q1-Q2 GDP Annual Growth Rates [ 28 ]

29 1,350 Tampa MSA Employment (000's) 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1, [ 29 ]

30 17.0% Tampa MSA Share of State Employment 16.5% 16.0% 15.5% 15.0% 14.5% 14.0% [ 30 ]

31 Millions 25 Tampa MSA Non-residential Development (sq ft) 20 Retail Office Industrial [ 31 ]

32 Keys to Maintaining Growth Continued development and redevelopment Major infrastructure improvements Ports Airport Transportation Utilities [ 32 ]

33 Questions Supporting? graphics can be placed in this column Steven McDonald, Chief Economist Community Solutions Group [ 33 ]