Past, Present and Future U.S. Lamb Market, 2013

Transcription

1 Past, Present and Future U.S. Lamb Market, 2013 Tim Petry Livestock Economist

2 It was the best of times, it was the worst of times Source: Chapter 1, A Tale of Two Cities (1859) a historical novel by Charles Dickens.

3 Mil. Head 60 TOTAL SHEEP & LAMB POPULATION January 1, U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS S-N-03 02/01/13

4 Mil. Head BREEDING EWES 1 YEAR & OLDER January 1, U.S., Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS S-N-04 02/01/13

5 BREEDING EWES ONE YEAR & OLDER JANUARY 1, 2013 (1000 Head) New England: 29 (Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Rhode Island) to to to to 441 No data Data Source: USDA-NASS Other States: 83 U.S. Total: 3140 S-N-11 02/01/13

6 Drought A Game Changer Short run: Likely what led to heavyweight lambs Spiraling feed costs Long run: Forced ewe liquidation

7 U.S. Drought Monitor July 23, 2013 July 24, 2012 July 26, 2011 July 27, 2010

8 DEC 2012 Corn

9 All Feeder Livestock Affected MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Weekly MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT C-P-54 01/02/13 $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT C-P-49 01/02/13 FEEDER PIG PRICES 40 Pounds, Weekly FEEDER LAMB PRICES 3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly $ Per Head JAN APR JUL OCT H-P-01 01/02/13 $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT S-P-06 01/07/13 LMIC: Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

10 Hay Prices?

11

12 Hay Prices J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S ND Other ND Alfalfa US Other US Alfalfa

13 U S ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) Mil. Tons PERCENT CHANGE MAY 1 HAY STOCKS ( ) G-NP-21 07/01/13 33% -22% -16% -41% -19% Data Source: USDA NASS -45% -50% -48% -46% -65% -56% -61% -43% -42% -33% -55% -34% -48% -33% 57% -49% -29% -54% -41% -39% 0% -13% 40% -50% 74% 114% -41% -20% -20% -35% 38% 48% -40% -54% -37% -100% to -45% -45% to -25% -25% to -5% -5% to 214% VT -20% NH -23% MA -20% RI 0% CT -42% NJ 25% DE -25% MD -6% 5/16/2013

14 % CHANGE BREEDING EWES - ONE YEAR & OLDER JANUARY 1, 2003 TO JANUARY 1, New England: 0 (Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Rhode Island) to to -7-7 to 5 5 to 55 No data Data Source: USDA-NASS Other States: 72.9 U.S. Total: S-N-15 02/01/13

15 LAMBS SAVED PER 100 EWES DURING CALENDAR YEAR New England: 110 (Vermont, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Connecticut, and Rhode Island) 73 0 to to to to 164 No data Data Source: USDA-NASS Other States: 98 U.S. Total: S-N-09 02/01/13

16 Bil. Pounds COMMERCIAL MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTION By Type of Meat, Annual Turkey Chicken Lamb & Veal Pork Beef Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-03A 06/28/13

17 Corn Total Use (Billion Bushels) Billion Bushels Feed & Residual Ethanol Non Ethanol Food, Seed & Industrial Exports June 12, 2013 WASDE Report & USDA Feed Grains Data Base Table 4

18 U S RED MEAT & POULTRY CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Pounds 200 Red Meat Total Poultry Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-C-07 07/10/13

19 Pounds 1.5 U S LAMB AND MUTTON CONSUMPTION Per Capita, Retail Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-C-08 07/10/13

20 Production, Imports and Choice Slaughter Lamb Price, Lamb and Mutton Production Imports 180 million Pounds Choice Slaughter lamb Price Dollars per cwt Source: Economic Research Service, USDA Note: 2013 data are forecasts.

21 U S LAMB IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly Mil. Pounds JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS I-N-44 07/05/13

22 Index 1.25 SEASONAL PRICE INDEX -- SLAUGHTER LAMBS National Direct (Carcass Basis), Max. Index Index Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Min. Index Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 08/03/12

23 SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES Wooled, lbs, Sioux Falls, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT S-P-05 07/26/13 Data Source: USDA-AMS

24 Thou. Head FI LAMB & YEARLING SLAUGHTER Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA-NASS S-S-20 07/25/13

25 LAMB AND YEARLING DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Pounds JAN APR JUL OCT 2013 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS S-S-06 07/28/13

26 NO. 1 U.S. LAMB PELT PRICES FOB, Weekly $ Per Pelt JAN APR JUL OCT S-P-10 07/26/13 Data Source: USDA-AMS

27 Where is Lamb Purchased

28 National Restaurant Association s Restaurant Index Values Greater than 100 = Expansion; Values Less than 100 = Contraction Source: National Restaurant Association

29 Loins Held Value BOXED LAMB LOIN PRICES Trimmed 4x4, 5 Day Rolling Average $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT S-P-15 07/26/13 Data Source: USDA-AMS

30 Other cuts did not! $ Per Cwt. 870 BOXED LAMB RACK PRICES Medium, 5 Day Rolling Average JAN APR JUL OCT 2013 S-P-16 07/26/13 BOXED LAMB SHOULDER PRICES Square Cut, 5 Day Rolling Average BOXED LAMB SINGLE LEG PRICES Trotter Off, 5 Day Rolling Average $ Per Cwt. $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT 2013 S-P-13 07/26/ JAN APR JUL OCT 2013 S-P-14 07/26/13 -- Data Source: USDA-AMS

31 NATIONAL LAMB CUTOUT VALUE Gross Carcass FOB, 5 Day Rolling Avg $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS S-P-18 07/26/13

32 SEASONAL PRICE INDEX -- FEEDER LAMBS Pounds, Texas, Index Max. Index Index Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Min. Index Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 08/03/12

33 FEEDER LAMB PRICES 3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC S-P-06 07/26/13

34 $ Per Bu OMAHA CORN PRICES Weekly JAN APR JUL OCT Data Source: USDA-AMS G-P-02 07/25/13

35 SF_LS331 Sioux Falls, SD Thu Jul 25, 2013 USDA-SD Dept of Ag Market News St. Onge-Newell Sheep Yards Weighted Average Report for 07/25/2013 Receipts: 2263 Two Weeks Ago: 1187 Year Ago: 1671 Sale not reported last week, comparisons made from two weeks ago. Slaughter Ewes 1.00 to 3.00 higher, Feeder Lambs 90 to 99 lbs sold 3.00 to 4.00 higher, other classes not accurately comparable to two weeks ago. Very Good Demand for all classes of sheep which sold on a Strong, Active Market. Today's offering consisted of 70 percent Feeder Lambs, 19 percent Open Replacement Ewes, 11 percent Slaughter Ewes and Bucks. Next Sale August 1, Regular Sheep Sale. Slaughter Ewes Good 2-3 (Fleshy) Head Wt Range Avg Wt Price Range Avg Price Slaughter Ewes Good 3-4 (Fleshy) Slaughter Ewes Utility 1-2 (Medium) Slaughter Ewes Cull 1 (Thin) Feeder Lambs Medium and Large Thin Fleshed Feeder Lambs Large Replacement Ewes Medium and Large 1-2, Whiteface X-Bred Thin Black Face

36 From Past, Present to Future

37 2013 Lamb Fundamentals Weather will be key Pastures Corn Lamb weights lower 2 nd ½ lamb production lower 2012 up 8% 2013 down 8%? (2011 level) Goat production lower Consumer demand? How do we get consumers back? Feeder lambs Corn price? Fed lamb price?

38 Thous. Head 325 COLORADO LAMBS ON FEED Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source:???? 7/3/2013

39 Percent US RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep Percent WESTERN REGION RANGE AND PASTURE CONDITION Percent Poor and Very Poor, Weekly May Jul Sep, Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC G-NP-30 07/22/13 G-NP-31 07/22/13

40 U S TOTAL CORN SUPPLY AND PRICE Crop Year Bil. Bushels $ Per Bushel Supply Price G-NP-13 07/11/13 Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC

41 SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICES Wooled, lbs, Sioux Falls, Weekly $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT FEEDER LAMB PRICES 3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly 2013 S-P-05 07/26/13 $ Per Cwt JAN APR JUL OCT, Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 2013 S-P-06 07/26/13

42 Longer Term U.S. economy should improve Ethnic market increasing (minority population increasing) Lamb gaining popularity Young people AT&T baseball park San Francisco Young producers Starter flocks

43 Questions?