2017 Chairm an Bob Adamson

Transcription

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2 2017 Chairm an Bob Adamson

3 21 st Annual Economic Summit Brought to you by: No rt h e rn Virg in ia Asso c ia t io n o f Re a lt o rs In partnership with: George Mason University s: Ce n t e r fo r Re g io n a l An a lysis

4 Moderators Marshall Chapman & Richard Donohoe

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6 THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS

7 PLEASE SILENCE YOUR CELL P HO N ES

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10 QUESTION S & ANSWERS Q&A w ill st a rt a t ~Se ssio n Tw o Step up to one of the audience microphones Please keep your question brief and to the point

11 Dr. Lawrence Yun National Association of Realtors

12 National Economic, Housing Overview & Forecast By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentation at Iowa Association of REALTORS September 18, 2017

13 Existing Home Sales 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,

14 Existing Home Sales Mostly Rising in Recent Years (Exceptions: when home buyer tax credit ended and taper tantrum ) 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000??? 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,

15 Mortgage Rates year Fixed Rate Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul

16 Monetary Policy Fed Funds Rate Series 1

17 Existing Home Sales Rising After Election (% change from one year ago) Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

18 New Home Sales Rising After Election Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

19 NAR HOME Survey of Consumers % Strongly indicating Good Time to Buy Q Q Q Q Q Q2

20 Stock Market: S&P 500 Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

21 Animal Spirit Revival of Consumers? Consumer Confidence Index Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

22 Animal Spirit Revival of Businesses? Small Business Optimism Index Jan- Feb - Mar - Apr - May - Jun - Jul - Aug - Sep- Oct - Nov - Dec - Jan- Feb - Mar - Apr - May - Jun - Jul

23 Months to Sell a Newly Built Home Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

24 Single-family Housing Starts (Shortage of Lots, Labor, Lending, Lumber) Thousand units Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul

25 U.S. Home Price Index $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $ Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul

26 12.0 Borrowers Not Defaulting (Serious Delinquency Rate) All Mortgages Veterans Affairs Mortgages FHA Mortgages Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2

27 FHA Insurance Premium - High

28 Homeownership Rate Still Near 50-year Lows Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1

29 Is Owning still American Dream? Will you Buy in Future? Yes on Dream Yes on Future 2016 Q Q4

30 Student Loan Debt Impacted Purchase a home 76% Take a vacation 72% Purchase a car Continue with education 65% 64% Rent solo or change living situation 58% Purchase entertainment 46% Purchase clothes Start a small business Purchase daily necessities 38% 40% 40% Rent or own closer to work or school location 33% Own a pet 21% None of these 5% % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

31 Economy?

32 GDP Growth Rates Reagan GHW Bush Clinton GW Bush Obama Trump Q1 Trump Q2

33 150, ,000 In thousands Jobs (8 million lost 16 million gained) 140, , , , , Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul

34 Total Job Openings In thousands Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan

35 In thousands Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Filings Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr

36 Economic Forecast Forecast 2018 Forecast GDP Growth 2.6% 1.6% 2.2% 2.4% Job Growth +2.6 million +2.0 million +2.1 million +2.4 million CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.3% 2.3% 2.2%

37 Actual versus projected Households KC Federal Reserve estimate of 6.9 million missing households

38 Young Adults Living with Parents % of those aged 25 to

39 Housing Forecast Forecast 2018 Forecast New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Median Price Growth 500, , , , million 5.4 million 5.6 million 5.8 million + 6.8% +5.1% +5.0% +3.5% 30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.3% 5.0%

40 Trump Presidency o Flood Insurance Availability? Extended Thank You for Responding o Dodd-Frank? o Fannie/Freddie and Mortgage Availability? o Tax Simplification? and Mortgage Interest Deduction and 1031 exchange? o EPA, land use, development fees?

41 Dr. Terry Clower Director, Center for Regional Analysis George Mason University, School of Public Policy

42 Washington Area Economy: Performance and Outlook Presentation to Northern Virginia Association of Realtors Economic Summit Terry L. Clower, Ph.D. Center for Regional Analysis Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University Sept 18, 2017

43 110 Annual Job Change - Washington MSA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s 3, ,300 3,200 3,100 3,000 2,900 July 16- July K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 2,800 July-17 Total: 3,321 K

44 (000s) Federal Government Washington MSA (000s) July 16- July MOTYC Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July-17 Total: 368.4K Total Jobs

45 $ Billions Federal Procurement in the Washington MSA (Fiscal Years) 82.4 TOTAL = $1,409.7 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov

46 (000s) Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis July 16- July K MOTYC Total Jobs July-17 Total: 761.9K

47 (000s) 25 Professional & Business Services Washington MSA Month Over the Year Change Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

48 (Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs Federal Govt. State & Local Govt Leisure & Hosp. Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Information Transp. & Util. Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector July 2016 July 2017 Washington MSA (000s) Total = 83, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

49 Employment Composition by Sector June 2017 Washington MSA Professional & Business Services Education & Health Services Federal Government Leisure & Hospitality State & Local Government Retail Trade Other Services Construction Financial Activites Information Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade Manufacturing 2.2% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 4.9% 4.8% 6.0% 11.1% 10.5% 10.0% 8.6% 13.5% 22.9% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 49

50 3.5% 3.0% 15 Largest Job Markets Job Change: July 2016 July 2017 Washington +2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

51 Elements of Population Change Washington MSA Population Change 120, ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20, ,000-40, % 1.6% 1.5% 1.1% +1.0% +0.9% 22,979 5,525 3,827 37,714 38,895 36,749 40,119 42,240 40,581 49,005 49,178 47,773 48,669 46,424 43,886-26,362-29,417-31,010 Net Domestic Migration Net Int'l Migration Natural Increase Source: US Census Bureau, Population Estimates Program, V2016

52 50 Annual Job Change Northern VA MOTYC Non-Farm Jobs 000 s 000 s 1, ,450 1,400 1,350 1,300 July 16- July K Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis 1,250 July-17 Total: 1,472.4 K

53 (Ranked by Size in 2016) Prof. & Bus. Svcs Educ & Health Svcs State & Local Govt Retail Trade Leisure & Hosp. Federal Govt. Other Services Financial Construction Transp. & Util. Information Wlse Trade Manufacturing Job Change by Sector July 2016 July 2017 Northern Virginia Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis (000s) Total 28,

54 Unemployment Rates in the WMSA By Sub-State Area DC 4.4 U.S. 3.9 SMD 3.9 MSA 3.2 NVA 2 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US Seasonally Adjusted)

55 Housing Market Trends

56 16,000 Existing Home Sales Washington MSA Through Aug ,000 12,000 10, Month Moving Average 8,000 6,000 4,000 8,199 Aug , Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

57 (000s) (000s) Median House Sales Price Washington MSA $412.6 K Aug 2017 Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

58 Average Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Washington MSA % Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Aug = $466K

59 Inventories of Existing Homes Month-Over-Year , MSA % Chg Inv Inventory Thousands Aug -4.7% Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.

60 % Average Home Sales Price Percent Change (MOTYC) Northern Virginia Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Aug = $486K

61 3,000 Washington MSA Building Permits , 3-Month Moving Avg 2,500 2,000 July 2,384 1,500 1, Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

62 Alexandria Housing Outlook Alexandria Median Housing Price Alexandria Housing Unit Sales $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 Oct-11 May-12 Dec-12 Jul-13 Feb-14 Sep-14 Apr-15 Nov-15 Jun-16 Jan-17 Aug-17 Mar-18 Alx_Md_Price Alx_Md_fcast Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Alexandria Housing Inventory (month end) Alx_Sales Alx_Sales_fcast Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Modest rise in prices Flattening unit sales Constrained inventory Alx_Inv Alx_INV_fcast

63 Arlington Market Outlook Arlington Median Housing Prices Arlington Housing Sales (units) $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 $- Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Arl_Md_Price Arl_md_sales_fcast Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Arlington Housing Inventory (month end) Arl_Total_Sales Arl_sales_fcast Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Prices stable at slightly lower level Unit sales tracking trends (?) Inventory stabilizing but Arl_Inv Arl_INV_fcast

64 Fairfax County Housing Outlook Fairfax County Median Sales Price Fairfax County Housing Sales (units) $600,000 2,500 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 $200,000 $100,000 2,000 1,500 1, $- - Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Fairfax Median Sales Price FX_Md_fcast FX_Sales FX_Sales_fcast 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 - Jan-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Apr-11 Fairfax County Housing Inventory (month end) Sep-11 Feb-12 Jul-12 Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Sep-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Dec-17 May-18 Prices following upward trendline Unit sales stable Inventories flat, not falling FX_Inv FX_Inv_fcast

65 Economic Outlook

66 % % Economic Outlook (GRP), Washington Area and Sub-State Areas (Annual % Change) NV MSA SM DC Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016

67 Employment Change in the WMSA by Sub-State Area (000s) D.C Sub. MD No. VA REGION Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (December 2016) NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV. Average Annual Change = 37,300

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69 Where are we? We are growing: Some diversification Some catch-up Recent job growth across all wage levels Growth will continue in 2017, but at a moderating pace Advantages Government Center International Institutions Connectivity to the World Concentration of Leaders Access to capital High Quality-of-Life Diverse Population Higher Education Educated Work Force Advanced Occupational Specializations Challenges Drain the swamp/sequester Further market shifts needed Cost of living/doing business Mobility Access to capital Regional branding / cooperation Globally competitive? Understanding changing nature of jobs Productivity

70 Thank You Questions cra.gmu.edu

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72 Dr. Gerald L. Gordon President & CEO, Fairfax County Economic Development Authority

73 Supervisor Martin Nohe Chairman, Northern Virginia Transportation Authority

74 Transportation Today & Tomorrow in the NOVA Region Martin E. Nohe, Chairman September 18,

75 Thank You for Your Efforts Your Voice Matters We have a diverse and complicated regional transportation network of existing and compelling needs. Business community helped bring focus to solutions for regional transportation needs in NOVA. Virginia General Assembly facilitated a new chapter in regional transportation funding through HB 2313 in

76 Diverse Needs Regional Solution The NVTA has worked transparently and diligently to fund regional transportation investments as a result of HB 2313, which has resulted in significant congestion relieving improvements throughout the region! Using HB 2313 revenues, we; Identify and Plan Prioritize and Program Invest Taxpayer Dollars 76 76

77 Our Approach Transparent Collaboration = Stakeholder engagement-inclusive of citizens, member jurisdictions and agencies Planning = Development and Update of the Long-Range Transportation Plan TransAction Prioritizing = Performance Measures to Evaluate & Prioritize Projects Programming = Funding Decisions through the Six Year Program 77 77

78 Long Range Transportation Planning Responsibility The NVTA is legislatively required to prepare a long range transportation plan for Northern Virginia that includes transportation improvements of regional significance. Northern Virginia 2020 Transportation Plan Adopted by TCC July 1999* Total Cost $9.7B TransAction 2030 Adopted July 2007 Total Cost $15.4B TransAction 2040 Adopted November 2012 Total Cost $23.2B costs for capital investments only *developed by the Transportation Coordinating Council 78 78

79 NVTA Funding Programs Adopted Since HB 2313 FY2014 Program Adopted July 2013 Total Investments---$187.0M (includes inaugural bond issuance) FY Program Adopted April 2015 Total Investments---$336.9M FY2017 Program Adopted July 2016 Total Investments---$466.0M Includes $300M I-66/Rt. 28 Interchange (Transform 66) Funding programs developed under TransAction

80 Regional Transportation Investments Funded in Three Years FY Programs 79 Projects $990 Million Total 80 80

81 NVTA HB 2313 Revenues Received and Projected through FYE June 30, 2017 NVTA TOTAL REVENUE RECEIVED BY TAX TYPE $1,235,265,843 Transient Occupancy Tax $109,039,758 Interest $6,227,329 Grantor s Tax $173,580,006 NVTA TOTAL REVENUE RECEIVED $1,235,265,843 30% Local Distribution Revenue $370,579,753 Regional Sales Tax $946,418,750 70% Regional Revenue $864,686,

82 Draft TransAction Plan: Planning for Next Round of Investments First update since the passage of HB 2313 Approximately 358 multi-modal candidate projects across 11 regional corridors/28 corridor segments Continuous Public Engagement MWCOG Round 9.0 forecasts, 2040 planning horizon No singular focus on one project or mode Sensitivity analysis Unconstrained financially---not enough $$ to fund all of the region s transportation needs 82 82

83 83 NVTA Planning/Programming/Funding

84 Jurisdiction Origins and Destinations 2040 Commute Patterns The origins and destinations noted on the right graphically show commuting patterns and provide a sense of volume. Source: MWCOG 2040 Travel Forecasts, Round 9.0 Land Use 84

85 Evaluation of Corridors and Segments Focus on improving travel conditions on 11 multi-modal corridors, divided into 28 corridor segments 85

86 Draft TransAction Plan Total Projects in Draft Plan Draft Plan Cost Estimate including ROW ($B)* 358 $44.1 Project Type Total Projects** Project Cost FY17 ($M) Roadway 239 $19,831 Transit 99 $23,293 Non-motorized 51 $3,543 ITS 1 / ICM 2 15 $1,570 TDM 3 3 $170 * Cost estimates are for entire projects, regardless of potential funding sources ** Projects can be categorized as multiple types 1 ITS: Intelligent Transportation Systems 2 ICM: Integrated Corridor Management 3 TDM: Transportation Demand Management 86

87 Findings: Selected Measures Measures (Weekday) Current Conditions (2016) No Build (2040) Draft Plan (2040) % Change Motorized Trips 8,737,000 10,462,000 10,565, % Auto Trips 7,862,000 9,432,000 9,442, % Transit Trips 876,000 1,030,000 1,122, % Transit Share 10.0% 9.8% 10.6% 8.2% Transit Boardings 1,002,000 1,359,000 1,551, % Miles of Travel 104,839k 125,379k 124,869k -0.4% Hours of Travel 3,298,000 5,811,000 4,446, % Hours of Delay 1,007,000 3,030,000 1,704, % Transit Crowding 10,800 20,100 7, % *24% Population Increase & 37% Employment Increase 87

88 Overall Impact of Draft Plan Draft Plan (2040) compared to No Build (2040) No Build (2040) Draft Plan (2040) Draft Plan No Build (2040) 88

89 Summary of Findings Compared to the No Build (2040), the Draft Plan: Improved travel conditions on all corridors; Modestly increased total trips (1.0%), but with increased transit share (up by 8.2%); Marginally decreased person miles traveled; Noticeably reduced person hours of travel and person hours of delay (by 24% and 44%); Significantly reduced transit crowding (by 64%) to below 2016 levels, in part due to regional BRT/LRT additions; Noticeably improved job accessibility for residents in a broad corridor from Leesburg to Prince William County; Residual problem areas include I-95 and I

90 Alternate Futures Four Alternate Futures tested: Scenario A: Technology makes driving easier Scenario B: Changes in travel behavior Scenario C: Dispersed land use growth Scenario D: Concentrated land use growth Scenarios are plausible alternate futures, but are neither predicted nor preferred ; hybrid scenarios are probable Scenario (sensitivity) analysis provides an understanding of the robustness of TransAction findings and recommendations 90

91 Next Steps Development of the Region s First Six Year Program October 12, Adoption of TransAction October 12, Call for Regional Transportation Projects for FY Six Year Program Spring Public Comment Period for Six Year Program June Adoption of the FY Six Year Program Spring Bi-Annual Update of the Six Year Program 91

92 Next Steps Ongoing Coordination Continued coordination with localities and regional agencies CTB TPB Synchronization of NVTA s Six Year Program with the CTB s Six Year Improvement Program Leverage funding opportunities for regional projects Long Term Benefits Assessment 92

93 Questions and Answers Richard Donohoe Real Estate Finance and Settlement Forum Vice Chair

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