The Outlook for Global Gold Doré Production Çağdaş D. Küçükemiroğlu, Metals Focus. 2 nd Global Gold Doré Forum th January 2018
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1 Th Outlook for Global Gold Doré Production Çağdaş D. Küçükmiroğlu, Mtals Focus 2 nd Global Gold Doré Forum th January 2018
2 About Mtals Focus; Indpndnt Highly xprincd Far raching travl programm In-dpth min-by-min and cost databass
3 Prsntation Outlin Gnral Background - What is doré? - Th markt for gold doré - How is gold doré producd? - Whr is gold doré producd? Brakdown of gold doré supply - Analysis of captiv markts Th outlook for gold doré supply - Ky growth rgions Conclusions
4 Mtals Focus Doré Flows Srvic Th Gold and Silvr Doré Flows Srvic offrs a dtail insight into th global flow of gold and silvr doré from min sit to rfinr. Dsignd to aid th industry as it plans ahad, idntify opportunitis and achiv conomis all against th backdrop of limitd fd from scondary sourcs and growing focus on sourcing complianc and risk managmnt. Th srvic includs: Ovr 1,200 min and projcts, with min-bymin production outlook to Wid rang of projct dtails, including dvlopmnt status, min sit costs, ownrship and currnt information on doré mtal contnt & rfining location (whr known). Quartrly databas updats (dlivrd in xcl) with a bi-annual rport. For mor information, plas contact; charls.dmstr@mtalsfocus.com
5 What is doré? Typically a gold-silvr alloy, with lss than 5% impuritis. Impuritis: non-prcious mtals, g coppr, lad, bismuth. Abov crtain limits ths impuritis can b damaging, can incur a rfining pnalty charg.
6 Th markt for gold doré Th markt for gold doré is rlativly stabl compard with bas mtals. Rfining a rlativly minor part of a gold min s oprating costs. Global gold rfining capacity ~2.5 tims gratr than annual gold min production. Minrs offrd bttr rats, du to th rgular consistnt sourc. Gold s high unit valu opns up an array of rfining options.
7 How is gold doré producd? ~85% of global gold production is rcovrd to doré (or a gold rich concntrat); ~2,800t/yr of gold. Gold is xtractd from or, from rock containing: - Opn pit Av g/t ( g/t) - Undrground Av g/t ( g/t) Procssing mthods vary dpnding on th minralogy of th dposit, typically involvs th xtraction of gold using cyanid. Cortz, Nvada
8 How is gold doré producd?
9 Global gold production in 2017; 3,264t (0.0% y/y) 5 Canada (175t) +7% y/y 12 Uzbkistan (89t) +3% y/y 2 Russia (291t) +6% y/y 8 Mxico (128t) 0% y/y 6 Pru (162t) 2% y/y 4 USA (246t) +7% y/y 10 Ghana (101t) +6% y/y 11 Brazil (90t) 7% y/y 6 South Africa (157t) 4% y/y 9 Indonsia (119t) +9% y/y 3 Australia (282t) 2% y/y 1 China (419t) 10% y/y Sourc: Mtals Focus
10 Brakdown of global gold production How much doré is radily availabl? Annual Global Gold Min Production ~3,250 tonns (105Moz) Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic
11 Brakdown of global gold production How much doré is radily availabl? Lss informal gold production; ~400t/yr Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic
12 Brakdown of global gold production How much doré is radily availabl? Lss by-product gold from bas mtal mining; ~325t/yr Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic
13 Brakdown of global gold production How much doré is radily availabl? Lss gold rcovrd to concntrat (Au+Ag mins); ~125t/yr Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic
14 Analysis of captiv markts Uzbkistan (12) Russia (2) Ontario (13*) China (Rank 1) Zimbabw (26) Kazakhstan (15) South Africa (6) Australia (3) * Ontario as a country would rank 13 th globally Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic
15 Brakdown of global gold production How much doré is radily availabl? Lss captiv (inc. smi captiv) gold doré production; ~1,150t/yr Laving ~1,250t/yr, or ~40% of global gold min supply
16 Outlook for gold doré supply Gold in doré, tonns 2,850 2,700 2,550 2,400 2,250 2,100 1,950 1,800 Gold Pric, US$/oz 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 1, Oprating & Historic Projcts Gold Pric 900 Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic (Dcmbr 2017)
17 Outlook for gold doré supply (lss captiv) Gold in doré, tonns 1,800 1,650 1,500 1,350 1,200 Gold Pric, US$/oz 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 1, Oprating & Historic Projcts Gold Pric 900 Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic (Dcmbr 2017)
18 Outlook for gold doré supply (lss captiv) Global gold in doré production, winnrs & losrs, 2017 vs 2022F Tonns North Amrica CIS Europ Africa Ocania Asia C&S Amrica Sourc: Mtals Focus Gold & Silvr Doré Flows Srvic (Dcmbr 2017)
19 Outlook for gold doré supply (lss captiv) North Amrica Main rgion of growth globally, drivn by Canada (outsid of Ontario). Notabl projcts to rach production or currntly in dvlopmnt includ: Brucjack (British Colombia, Canada) rachd commrcial production in July Gold output is forcast to avrag 6.4t/yr Moos Rivr (Nova Scotia, Canada) pourd first gold in Octobr and will produc 2.3t/yr. Eagl (Yukon) is xpctd to start-up by mid and produc 5.3t/yr on avrag. First gold at Mliadin (Nunavut) is xpctd in Q3.19. Th min will produc 5.7t/yr. Othr prominnt projcts xpctd to ntr production by 2022 includ Coff (Yukon), Back Rivr (Nunavut) and Horn (Qubc).
20 Outlook for gold doré supply (lss captiv) Africa Production gains in Wst Africa will countract mor substantial dclins from stablishd gold producing countris lik Tanzania. Notabl projcts rcntly in or nar production includ: Fkola (Mali), Houndé (Burkina Faso) and Yanfolila (Mali) all start production in Q4.17. Togthr ths projcts ar xpctd to produc ovr 20t/yr. Sissingu (Ivory Coast) is schduld to start production in Q1.18 and produc 2.4t/yr. Natougou (Burkina Faso) is xpctd to start Q3.18 and dlivr 7.0t/yr on avrag. Othr prominnt projcts xpctd to ntr production by 2022 includ Banfora (Burkina Faso), Bibiani (Ghana), Tulu Kapi (Ethiopia), Sanbrado (Burkina Faso) and Yaour (Ivory Coast).
21 Outlook for gold doré supply (lss captiv) Cntral & South Amrica Cntral & South Amrican is xpctd to fair th worst drivn by lowr production at a numbr of major oprations in Pru, Argntina and th Dominican Rpublic. Nar production projcts includ in th rgion ar limitd but includ: Crro Moro (Argntina) is on track for compltion in Q1.18 and will produc 4.6t/yr. Aurizona (Brazil) could r-ntr production by nd-2018, and produc 3.6t/yr. Fruta dl Nort (Ecuador) is xpctd to produc 3.0t/yr. First gold xpctd in Q4.19. Lindro (Argntina) is xpctd to produc 3.0t.yr from Q2.19. Othr prominnt projcts xpctd to ntr production by 2022 includ Volta Grand, Coringa (both in Brazil), Montagn D'or (Frnch Guiana) and Toroparu (Guyana).
22 Outlook for gold doré supply Global gold doré production pakd in 2017, with supply forcast to fall 0.9%/yr btwn Occurring in spit of a positiv outlook for gold prics. Du to th lag ffct within th mining sctor. W ar suffring from th slashing of xploration and dvlopmnt budgts post But, company spnding is starting to pick-up again. Supply from captiv markts xpct to fair modratly bttr; drivn by th long standing trnd of production coming from a broadr array of countris. Othr factors slowing th rplnishmnt of mind ouncs: A numbr of th majors producrs still hav significant lvls of dbt and ar managing cash flow carfully (limiting xpnditur on building nw mins). Diminishing rat of rturn on xploration as companis focus on Australia, Canada and th US; th traditional, and politically safr, gold producing countris. Mining projcts gtting hardr to dvlop and oprat; prmit rquirmnts, highr royaltis and govrnmnt fr carry shars all cutting into rturns.
23 For information about our products and srvics plas contact; Addrss Unit T, Rlianc Wharf 2-10 Hrtford Road London N1 5ET UK Tl: Bloombrg chat: IB MFOCUS Disclaimr & Copyright Although vry ffort has bn mad to undrtak this work with car and dilignc, Mtals Focus Ltd cannot guarant th accuracy of any forcasts or assumptions. Nothing containd in this prsntation constituts an offr to buy or sll scuritis or commoditis and nor dos it constitut advic in rlation to th buying or slling of invstmnts. It is publishd only for informational purposs. Mtals Focus Ltd dos not accpt rsponsibility for any losss or damags arising dirctly or indirctly from th us of this prsntation.
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