'eaponeering: System Effectiveness. Conventional Weapon &A1AA. Morris R. Driels. Monterey, California

Transcription

1 'eaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness Morris R. Driels U.S. Naval Postgraduate School Monterey, California AIM EDUCATION SERIES Joseph A. Schetz, Editor-in-Chief Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University Blacksburg, Virginia Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Virginia &A1AA

2 CONTENTS Preface Acknowledgments Nomenclature xxv xxxi xxxiii PART 1 BASIC TOOLS AND METHODS Chapter 1 Overview of Weaponeering and Weapon Effectiveness Definitions Example of a Weaponeering Outcome: Air Tasking Order Weaponeering Part of a Larger Planning Cycle An Example of a Weaponeering Tool Basic Components Needed to Compute Effectiveness Effectiveness Calculation Methodology Implementing a Methodology into a Model 26 References 28 Chapter 2 Introduction to Statistical Methods Why Are Statistics Needed? Population and Sample Univariate Distribution Univariate Normal Distribution Bivariate Normal Distribution Probability Circular Normal and Rayleigh Distributions Uniform Distribution Binomial Distribution Mott and Weibull Distributions Poisson Distribution Testing Data for a Particular Distribution Functions of Random Variables Mathematical Expectation Monte Carlo Simulations 64 /x

3 x Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness 2.16 Generating Random Numbers from the Cumulative Distribution Function Confidence Levels, Limits, and Intervals Required Number of Monte Carlo Iterations 71 Reference 74 Chapter 3 Weapon Trajectory Introduction Initial Release or Firing Velocities Zero-Drag, Point Mass Model Characterization of Air Resistance Trajectory in a Standard Atmosphere Linear Drag, Point Mass Model High-Fidelity Point Mass Model General Stability of Projectiles Spin-Stabilized Projectiles Gyroscopic Effects Other Characteristics of Spinning Projectiles Effects of Wind on Ballistic Trajectory Modified Point Mass Model Using Trajectory Models in Fire Control Systems (FCS) Artillery Firing Tables Trajectory for Guided Weapons and Munitions Ballistic Partial/Unit Effects from Trajectory Programs Air-Launched Loft and Dive Toss Deliveries Fuze Models 120 References 126 Chapter 4 Delivery Accuracy Overview Introduction General Measures of Accuracy Vertical Errors Commonly Used Equations Based on Normal Data Noncircular Distributions Accuracy Measures Including a Bias Accuracy in the Normal Plane Definitions of the Angular Mil Converting Between Ground and Normal Plane Accuracy Values Treatment of Precision Errors in the Normal Plane Accuracy of Air-Launched Unguided Weapons Accuracy of Air-Launched Guided Weapons 151

4 Contents xi 4.13 Bivariate Analysis of Air-Launched Guided Weapon Data CEP for Nonnormal Miss Distance Distributions Generating Random Miss Distances for Phit/^nm Distributions Accuracy Mixture Models Accuracy of Surface-Launched, Unguided Weapons Accuracy of Surface-Launched Guided Weapons General Approach to Accuracy Modeling Error Budgets Treatment of Vertical Errors Spherical Errors (SEP) 176 References 178 Chapter 5 Accuracy of Air-Launched Unguided Weapons Introduction Mechanization Sign Conventions and Definitions CCRP Mechanization CCRP Modes Computation of Miss Distances for CCRP Mechanization Accumulation of Individual Miss Distances for CCRP CC1P Mechanization CCIP Modes Computation of Miss Distances for CCIP Bombing on Coordinates Mechanization Summary 209 Chapter 6 Accuracy of Surface-Launched Unguided Munitions Introduction Meterological (MET) Messages Precision Error Model MPI Error Model MPI Errors for Observer Adjusted Fire MPI Errors for Predicted Fire MPI Errors for Registration/Transfer Adjusted Fire MPI Errors for MET + VE Adjusted Fire MPI Error for Range K Adjusted Fire Example 243 References 247

5 x/7 Weaponeehng: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness Chapter 7 Accuracy of GPS/INS Guided Munitions Overview of the Global Positioning System Determining Position with No Errors Present Pseudorange and Clock Errors User Position from Four Satellite Pseudoranges User Position from More Than Four Satellites User Position in Geodetic and Local Coordinates Accuracy of GPS Measured Locations GPS Error Budgets Differential GPS GPS/INS Guided Munitions Combining Vertical Errors into Equivalent Ground Plane Errors Targeting Modes INS Only Guidance GPS Jamming Low-Level Wind (LLW) Effects Nonplanar Trajectories Spreadsheets to Compute GPS Accuracy 280 References 282 Chapter 8 Vulnerability Assessment Introductory Methods Introduction Introduction to Effectiveness Indices Requirements for the Computation of Effectiveness Indices Collecting and Characterizing Warhead Fragment Data Compartment vs Component Vulnerability Vulnerability Assessment for Fragmentation Warheads Vulnerable Area Critical and Noncritical Components Redundant and Nonredundant Critical Components Target Vulnerability to Single Fragments CASE a: Target Composed of Nonredundant Critical Components with No Overlap CASE b: Target Composed of Nonredundant Critical Components That Overlap CASE c: Target Composed of Some Redundant Critical Components with No Overlap 303

6 Contents xiii 8.14 CASE d: Target Composed of Some Redundant Critical Components That Overlap Multiple Hit Vulnerability Effectiveness Assessment for a Specific Weapon Centroid of Vulnerability and Different Fragment Weights Damage Matrix and Lethal Area Vulnerability Assessment for Blast Warheads 316 References 316 Chapter 9 Vulnerability Assessment Advanced Methods Introduction Computation of Vulnerable Areas (COVART) Shotline Anaysis Penetration Equations Calculating the Shotline /\/sh COVART Computational Model for Calculating Vulnerable Areas Advanced Joint Effectiveness Model (AJEM) Modular UNIX Based Vulnerability Suite (MUVES) Effectiveness Assessment: Computing the Damage Matrix Detailed Description of the General Full Spray Materiel Model (GFSM) Orientation of Weapon in GFSM Scenario GFSM Target Description GFSM Warhead Description GFSM Fragment Drag Data GFSM Fragmentation Zones Fragment Velocity/Maximum Effective Range GFSM Computation of PK GFSM Calculation of P,<{r, y) Review of Computational Procedure Worked Problem for GFSM Methodology Computation of the PK Matrix Joint Mean Area of Effects Model (JMAE) Simplification of Damage Matrix Conserving Lethality for Different Damage Functions Lethal Area Calculation for Targets Sensitive to Blast Combining Lethal Area Matrices AVMAT Program 374

7 xiv Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness 9.27 Vulnerability Assessment for Shaped Charge and Penetrating Rod Warheads 378 References 385 Chapter 10 Basic Effectiveness Calculations Introduction Basic Approach to Effectiveness Calculation Interpretation of the Weapon Lethal Area Using Other Damage Functions Dependent and Independent Fire Combining Round-to-Round Errors with Damage Functions Conclusions 404 PART 2 INTRODUCTORY AIR-TO-SURFACE WEAPONEERING Chapter 11 Single Weapons Against Unitary Targets Introduction Probability of Damage from One Unguided Weapon and Unitary Target PDy PD! for Single Fragmentation Warhead and Unitary Target Comparing Expected Value with Monte Carlo Simulation PD! for Blast/Rectangular Damage Function and Unitary Target Some Computational Considerations Force Estimation Simple Spreadsheet Implementation to Compute PD] Template for Implementing Weaponeering Solutions Calculating PD! for Guided Weapons Bomb Burial Comparison of Analytical Effectiveness Methodologies Comparing Circular and Rectangular Cookie-Cutter 427 Damage Functions 432 Chapter 12 Single Weapons Directed Against an Area of Targets Introduction 12.2 Measurement of Damage

8 Contents xv 12.3 Weapon Represented by Rectangular Damage Function Effect of Multiple Weapons and Aimpoints Fractional Coverage Spreadsheet to Compute FDi Weaponeering Spreadsheet Calculating FD2 for Guided Weapons Weapon Represented by Carlton Damage Function 455 Reference 459 Chapter 13 Stick Deliveries Introduction Determining the Pattern Dimensions Calculating the Stick Width Calculating Stick Length Precision Errors for Stick Deliveries Pattern Dimensions Weapon Sparsity and Overlap in the Pattern Summary of Computing Fractional Damage for Sticks Spreadsheet Implementation Advanced Method for Calculating Fractional Damage Effect on FD of Different Multiple Weapon Representations 480 Chapter 14 Projectiles Introduction Simplified Projectile Methodology Accuracy Considerations Damage Functions Effectiveness Calculations PD When More Than One Round Is Required for a Kill Spreadsheet Implementation Gunnery Model with Correlation-Aimpoint Wander Round-to-Round Correlation Generating Correlated Impact Points Correlation Coefficients Effectiveness Calculations with Correlation Effectiveness for Penetrating Munitions 500 References 503

9 xw Weoponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness Chapter 15 Cluster Munitions Introduction General Analytical Treatment of Cluster Munitions Trajectory Computations Submunition Pattern Dimensions Rectangular Patterns in the Ground Plane Circular Patterns in the Normal Plane Effect of Precision Error Spreadsheet Implementation 522 Chapter 16 Weaponeering for Specific Targets Using Effectiveness Indices Introduction Bridges Effective Miss Distance Damage Function Above Ground Buildings Indirect Aimpoints Summary of Weaponeering Methodologies and Locator 558 PART 3 INTRODUCTORY SURFACE-TO-SURFACE WEAPONEERING Chapter 17 Indirect Fire Artillery and Mortar Systems Introduction Terminology and Combat Scenarios Aimpoint Selection Weapon Lethal Area Delivery Accuracy Munition Trajectory Naval Gunfire Comparing Sequential Dependent or Independent Events Methodologies for Surface-to-Surface Weaponeering Tools Superquickie 2, Unitary Warhead Superquickie 2, Improved Conventional Munition High-Fidelity Model Matrix Evaluator Program Fractional Damage Calculations for Multiple Events 596

10 Contents xvii Improved Conventional Munitions (ICM) in Matrix Evaluator Matrix Evaluator V ARTQUIK Method Damage Done by a Single Weapon with an Offset Aimpoint Combining the Damage Function with Precision Error Defining the Volley Damage Grid ARTQUIK Model for Improved Conventional Munitions Summary of Model Features 614 Chapter 18 Direct Fire: Infantry, Vehicles, and Small Boats Introduction Direct Fire Against Personnel Targets (FBAR) Direct Fire Against Vehicles Passive Vehicle Target Model (PVTM) Naval Direct Fire Systems (JGEM) 630 References 645 Chapter 19 Mines Introduction Land Mines Land Minefield Specification and Planning Simplified Land Mine Method Minefield Density Detailed Land Mine Method Sea Mines Shallow Water Sea Mines Deep Water Sea Mines Antisubmarine Mines 666 PART 4 ADVANCED WEAPONEERING Chapter 20 Historical Review of Weapon Effects Methods Introduction Review of Weaponeering Methodologies Prior to WWII Variable Time and Proximity Fuze 675

11 xviii Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness 20.4 Review of Weaponeering Methodologies After WWII Further Work of John Von Neumann Roger Snow (with Ryan, Harris, and Lind) Salvo Formula Fendrikov and Yakovlev U.S. Organizational History 699 References 701 Chapter 21 Personnel Targets Introduction Casualty Criteria Wound Ballistics Computer Man Program Computer Man Injury Assessment Computer Man Shotline Modes Sperrazza and Kokinakis Methods (SK) General Full Spray Personnel Model (GFSP) Detailed Description of GFSP Ballistic Limit for Fragments Effect of Terrain on Presented Area Component-Level Personnel Injury Modeling Injury due to Blast Operational Requirement Based Casualty Assessment (ORCA) Risk Estimates, Collateral Damage, and Minimum Safe Distances 764 References 766 Chapter 22 Advanced Trajectory Methods Air-to-Surface Trajectory Unguided Weapon Trajectory Software (UWTS) Guided Weapon Trajectory Software (GWTS) GWTS Trajectory Mode GWTS Impact Mode GWTS Implementation in JWS Precision Munition Planning Tool (PMPT) Example Trajectory Model for Guided Weapons Surface-to-Surface Weapon Trajectory 787 References 789

12 Contents xix Chapter 23 Ground Penetration Introduction Penetration Modeling Using PC Effects Program Penetration Modeling Using PENCRV3D PENCRV3D Stress Equations Ricochet and Broach Advanced Bomb Burial 806 References 810 Chapter 24 Air Blast Fundamentals of Air Blast Explosion Characteristics Characteristics of Air Shock Front Formation of the Blast Wave Explosive Yield Characteristics of the Blast Wave Shock-Wave Reflection Normal Air Shock-Wave Reflection Blast Characteristics Attenuation with Distance External Blast Loading on Structures Dynamic Response of Structures and Components Internal Blast Loading on Structures FACEDAP Program Engineering Models for Predicting Blast Damage Blast Effects Against Materiel Targets Blast Lethal Miss Distance Joint Blast Analysis Methodology (JBAM) 860 References 863 Chapter 25 Tunnels Introduction Overview of JWS Tunnel Weaponeering Methodology Tunnel Crater Methodology Spall Crater Development Breach Crater Development Combined Spall and Breach Crater Formation Rubble Volume 884

13 xx Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness 25.8 Craters on Nonplanar Surfaces Multiple Craters Air Blast in Tunnels Blast Door Vulnerability Model Damage Criteria for Tunnels 893 References 894 Chapter 26 Cratering Introduction Treatment of Cylindrical Charges Crater Geometry and Definitions Detonations in Soil Surface Craters in Concrete Surface Craters in Concrete over Soil Ejecta 906 References 912 Chapter 27 Above-Ground Buildings and Bunkers Introduction Overview of FIST Functionality Basic Building Structural Models Smart Target Model Generator for Buildings (STMG) Weapon Impact, Penetration, and Detonation Internal Detonations Shock-Wave Path Length Structural Damage for Internal Detonations Flexural Failure due to Shock Loading Breach and Spall Flexural Failure due to Quasi-Static Pressure (GPRS) Quasi-Static Pressures Outside the Blast Room External Bursts Ground Shock External Bursts Cratering and Breach Building Collapse Progressive or Disproportionate Collapse Structural Kill Metrics Functional Kill Equipment Damage Personnel Injury Bunkers and Hardened Targets 957 References 959

14 Contents xxi Chapter 28 Nonhomogeneous Targets Introduction Target Description Attack Description Weapon-Target Interaction Target Shielding PK Calculations for All Weapon Target Pairings Combining PD for Multiple Weapons Damage to the Complete Target Disablement Diagrams Monte Carlo Structure Summary of Methodology 977 Reference 977 Chapter 29 Bridge Targets Introduction Bridge Components Bridge Types Damage Requirements for Defeating a Bridge Target Elementary Concepts 29.6 Bridge Design in Structural Mechanics 985 Codes and Standards Characteristic Dimensions in Structural Design Damage Mechanisms Involved in Collapsing a Span Fragment and Blast Loading of Structural Members Characterizing Failure Criteria Weapon Damage Model Overview of Structural Failure Prediction Methodology 1008 References 1009 Chapter 30 Collateral Damage Estimation Introduction Simple Collateral Damage Methodology Four-Tier Collateral Damage and Casualty Estimation Methodology Collateral Damage Boundaries and Hazardous Areas Collateral Damage Estimates (CDE) Methodology 1022 References 1031

15 xx/i Weaponeering: Conventional Weapon System Effectiveness Chapter 31 Antiair Weapon Effectiveness Introduction Joint Antiair Model (JAAM) General Model Description and Features Missile Model Description Aircraft Model Description Launch Acceptable Region (LAR) Generation Suite of Antiair Kill Chain Models and Data (SAK-MD) Aimpoints Delivery Accuracy Fuze Function Single-Fragment Probability of Kill Damage due to Fragments Damage due to Direct Hit Damage due to Blast Total Damage PK 1056 References 1057 Chapter 32 Target Acquisition Introduction Experimental Contrast Thresholds for the Human Eye Overington Threshold Model Field Tests Detecting Military Targets Johnson's Frequency-Domain Experiments ACQUIRE Target Acquisition Model Air-to-Surface Target Acquisition Flight Profile and Run-in Effects Terrain Model Detection Range i?vis Conversion of Range to Probability of Launch Target Acquisition Tool Time-Dependent Target Detection Search 1092 References 1094 Appendix A Standard Statistical Tables 1095 Appendix B Derivation of Error Equations for Unguided, Surface-Launched Weapons 1099 B.l Precision Error PD/Proximity and Altitude Fuze 1099 B.2 Precision Error Time Fuze 1100

16 Contents xxiii B.3 MPI Errors for Predicted Fire PD/Proximity and Altitude Fuze 1101 B.4 MPI Errors for Predicted Fire Time Fuze 1104 B.5 MPI Errors for Registration/Transfer Adjusted and Altitude Fuze 1106 Fire PD/Proximity B.6 MPI Errors for Registration/Transfer Adjusted Fire Time Fuze 1113 Appendix C Weapon Selection Based on Target and Damage Criteria 1121 Index 1147 Supporting Materials 1195