FAA/EUROCONTROL ATM Seminar 2015 Model for Longitudinal Uncertainty during Controlled Time of Arrival Operations

Transcription

1 FAA/EUROCONTROL ATM Seminar 2015 Model for Longiudinal Uncerainy during Conrolled Time of Arrival Operaions Lisbon, Porugal June 2015 David De Sme, Jesper Bronsvoor, & Greg McDonald

2 Overview Inroducion Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Reliable ETAmin-max Window Exremes of Reliable ETAmin-max Window Operaional Inerpreaion Pracical Applicaion of he Model Conclusion

3 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Prediced Trajecory Acual Trajecory including wind drif pred ac v v = prediced groundspeed W v error corr = pred. gndsp. + wind error + speed correcion Acual - Prediced Trajecory = Longiudinal posiion error x x W ac error pred v corr v W v v error corr

4 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Prediced Trajecory Acual Trajecory including wind drif pred ac v v = prediced groundspeed W v error corr = pred. gndsp. + wind error - speed correcion Acual - Prediced Trajecory = Longiudinal posiion error x x W ac error pred v corr v W v v error corr

5 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Prediced Trajecory Acual Trajecory including wind drif pred ac v v = prediced groundspeed W v error corr = pred. gndsp. + wind error - speed correcion Acual - Prediced Trajecory = Longiudinal posiion error x x W ac error pred v corr v W v v error corr

6 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Prediced Trajecory Acual Trajecory including wind drif pred ac v v = prediced groundspeed W v error corr = pred. gndsp. + wind error - speed correcion Acual - Prediced Trajecory ac pred v W v v error corr Longiudinal posiion uncerainy x x W error v corr

7 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model = Wind Error

8 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

9 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

10 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Speed Correcion 2 = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

11 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Speed Correcion 2 = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

12 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Speed Correcion 2 Speed Correcion 3 = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

13 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Speed Correcion 2 Speed Correcion 3 = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

14 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Speed Correcion 2 Speed Correcion 3 Speed Correcion 4 = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

15 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Speed Correcion 2 Speed Correcion 3 Speed Correcion 4 = Wind Error Speed Correcion =

16 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model 1 w x CTA 1 x ol CTA x 1 1

17 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model 1 w x CTA 1 x ol CTA x 1 1

18 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model Longiudinal uncerainy (along rack posiion uncerainy - NM) Toal speed correcion 0 0 CTA 1 ln CTA w x 1 ol ol 0 x x CTA w ln 1 CTA w x 1 ol x CTA w w.ln CTA x s s

19 Longiudinal Trajecory Uncerainy Model

20 Validaion of he model General Elecric B737NG FMS worksaion (U10.7 sofware) Aircraf descending from FL400 o 2000f Effec of wind blending

21 Example of oal speed correcion during CTA operaion 10 ks wind speed error olerance x ol = 0.7NM (10sec@250ks) olerance x ol = 1.3NM (20sec@250ks or 10sec@450ks) s w.ln w CTA x ol 0

22 TIME SPEED Reliable ETAmin/max Window ETA max v max ETA min v min

23 TIME SPEED Reliable ETAmin/max Window ETA max v max ETA min v min

24 TIME SPEED Reliable ETAmin/max Window ETA max v max speed buffer s(eta min) ETA min v min speed buffer s(eta max)

25 TIME SPEED Reliable ETAmin/max Window ETA max v max speed buffer s(eta min) ETA min v min speed buffer s(eta max)

26 TIME SPEED Reliable ETAmin/max Window ETA max ETA max reliable v max speed buffer s(eta min) ETA min reliable ETA min v min speed buffer s(eta max)

27 Reliable ETAmin/max Window ETA min and max ETA max v d min and ETA min v d max wih d = disance o go Reliable ETA min and max ETA ETA max,rel min,rel v v min max s s d d ETA ETA max min Reliable ETAmin/max window ETA ETA max max ETA ETA min min rel rel f (ETA f (v min max,v max,eta,s,d) min,s,d)

28 Reliable ETAmin/max Window Vmax 470ks, Vmin 410ks 10 ks wind speed error, olerance 1.3NM (10s) or 3.9NM (30s) ETA max, rel ETA min, rel versus disance o go

29 Reliable ETAmin/max Window Vmax 470ks, Vmin 410ks 10 ks wind speed error, olerance 1.3NM (10s) or 3.9NM (30s) s = (v max - v min ) / 2 - w Max s = (v max - v min ) / 2 Min ETA max, rel ETA min, rel versus disance o go

30 Time o go a which ETAmin/max window is maximal Time o go a which reliable ETA min/max window is maximal depends wind uncerainy w (e.g. 10ks), olerance x ol and v max - v min

31 Operaional Inerpreaion Speed daa colleced and modelled for differen aircraf ypes, based on FCOM daa TAS max TAS min in funcion of Fligh Level (max. LW) TAS max TAS min in funcion of aircraf weigh (FL350)

32 Operaional Inerpreaion Max. Landing Weigh

33 Operaional Inerpreaion Max. Landing Weigh

34 Operaional Inerpreaion Max. Landing Weigh

35 Operaional Inerpreaion Max. Landing Weigh

36 Operaional Inerpreaion Max. Landing Weigh

37 Applicaion using Melbourne arrival sequence ATM 2013 sudy: using CTA o generae same 2 hour sequence as recorded arrival rack daa did no achieve saisfacory resuls Addiional conrol range needed: heory used o compue reliable ETAmin/max windows and o deermine TTG a which he reliable window is maximal CTA issued a he above compued TTG

38 Applicaion using Melbourne arrival sequence Using reliable ETAmin-max window significanly reduces conrol range TTG a which reliable ETAmin-max window is maximal ofen exceeds oal fligh ime This suggess ha conrol of he deparure imes will be necessary for he concerned flighs Overall, sequence achievabiliy could only be slighly improved by shifing ime a which CTA is issued

39 Applicaion using Melbourne arrival sequence

40 Conclusion An analyical model was derived which predics he longiudinal uncerainy around aircraf s prediced posiion under CTA operaion Inpu daa o he model: 0, CTA, wind uncerainy and olerance Poenial applicaions are: Assess probabiliy of spacing reducions due o CTA Esimae oal speed variaion ha migh be necessary o achieve CTA Compuaion of a reliable ETAmin-max window Esimae he ime during fligh a which ETAmin-max window is a is maximum (= maximum range of selecable CTAs) Fuure work: linking CTA wih wind uncerainy and deparure imes

41 Discussion