The Future of Intelligence, Artificial and Natural. HI-TECH NATION April 21, 2018 Ray Kurzweil

Transcription

1 The Future of Intelligence, Artificial and Natural HI-TECH NATION April 21, 2018 Ray Kurzweil

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3 Technology Getting Smaller MIT Lincoln Laboratory (1962) Kurzweil Reading Machine (Circa 1979) knfbreader Mobile (2008) 3

4 The Law of Accelerating Returns An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common-sense "intuitive linear" view. 4

5 INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (OF ALL KINDS) DOUBLE THEIR POWER ABOUT (PRICE PERFORMANCE, CAPACITY, BANDWIDTH) EVERY YEAR 5

6 Calculations per Second per $1000 Moore s Law is only one example Exponential Growth of Computing for 110 s Moore's Law was the fifth, not the first, paradigm to bring exponential growth in computing Logarithmic Plot 6

7 MIPS DRAM Bits/Dollar Flops (Floating-point Operations per Second) Transistors per chip Growth in Supercomputer Power Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors) 1,E+22 1,E+21 1,E+20 1,E+19 1,E+18 1,E+17 1,E+16 1,E+15 1,E+14 1,E+13 1,E+12 1,E+11 1,E+10 1,E+09 First Exaflop Supercomputer (forecast) Pleiades,Blue Waters, Blue Gene /L or RIKEN (announced) Earth Simulator SX-8 Blue Roadrunner Gene /L Blue Gene /L Blue Gene /L ASCI Red ASCI White CP-PACS/2048 ASCI White ASCI Red Num. Wind Tun. SR2201/1024 Num. Wind Tun. CM-5/1024 SX-3/44 VP2600/10 Logarithmic Plot Itanium 'Tukwila' Dual-Core Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2004) Xeon MP Itanium 2 Itanium 2 (2003) Pentium 4 Pentium III II PentiumPentium 486 DX Logarithmic Plot Processor Performance (MIPS) ` Logarithmic Plot Core 2 Extreme QX6700 C2E QX9770 Pentium D 830 Pentium 4 (1700) Pentium 4 (3066) Pentium III Pentium II Pentium 486 Dynamic RAM Memory Bits per Dollar ` Logarithmic Plot

8 Dollars $/Transistor/Hz 1,00E+00 Average Transistor Price Logarithmic Plot 1E-07 Cost Per Transistor Cycle Logarithmic Plot 1,00E-01 1,00E-02 1E-10 1,00E-03 1,00E-04 1E-13 1,00E-05 1,00E-06 1E-16 1,00E-07 1,00E-08 1E-19 8

9 Total Bits Shipped Total Bits Shipped Logarithmic Plot 9

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11 Petabytes / Content Density (Number of Standard Messages) Internet Data Traffic (Global) Logarithmic Plot Cooper's Law of Spectral Efficiency Logarithmic Plot

12 Number of User Devices Number of User Devices Internet Hosts (Global) Internet Hosts (Global) Logarithmic Plot Linear Plot

13 Base Pairs and Sequences Cost in Dollars $ $ $ DNA Sequencing Cost Logarithmic Plot Cost per million base pairs $ $100 $1 $.01 $ $.0001 $ 1,E+12 1,E+11 1,E+10 1,E+09 1,E+08 1,E+07 1,E+06 1,E+05 1,E+04 1,E+03 1,E+02 Growth in Genbank DNA Sequence Data Base Pairs Sequences Logarithmic Plot 13

14 Flops (Floating-point Operations per Second) Growth in Supercomputer Power 1,E+20 1,E+19 1,E+18 1,E+17 1,E+16 1,E+15 1,E+14 1,E+13 1,E+12 1,E+11 1,E+10 1,E ASCI White ASCI White ASCI Red ASCI Red Num. Wind Tun. Num. Wind Tun. CP-PACS/2048 SR2201/1024 CM-5/1024 SX-3/44 VP2600/10 Tianhe-2 (MilkyWay-2) Sequoia K computer Titan BladeCenter QS22 Cluster Tianhe-1A Blue Gene /L Cray XT5-HE Blue Gene /L Earth Simulator Blue Gene /L RIKEN (unnamed) Sierra and Summit Logarithmic Plot 14

15 Megawatts Global Cumulative Installed PV Capacity Logarithmic Plot

16 Transistors per chip Transistors Per Chip (Intel processors) DX processor Celeron Core 2 Extreme QX9650 Pentium G/Core i5 Core 2 Extreme QX6700 Core i7 Pentium D Pentium 4 Pentium 4 Pentium Pentium II Pentium Pentium Logarithmic Plot Core i7-3930k Pentium 4/Celeron D Pentium M/Celeron 2 Pentium 4/Celeron Pentium III/Pentium III Xeon Core i7-4820k processor

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18 3D Printed Jet Engine and Car credit: Monash University credit: Oak Ridge National Laboratory 18

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20 REVERSE ENGINEERING THE BRAIN: The Ultimate Source of the Templates of Intelligence 20

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23 Cerebral Cortex Simulation Images 23

24 A computer simulation of the firings of many simultaneous pattern recognizers in the neocortex 24

25 Highly regular grid structure of initial connections in the neocortex found in National Institutes of Health Study 25

26 Five Parallel Auditory Pathways 26

27 Ways the brain differs from a conventional computer: Very few cycles available to make decisions Massively parallel: 100 trillion interneuronal connections Combines digital & analog phenomena at every level Nonlinear dynamics can be modeled using digital computation to any desired degree of accuracy Benefits of modeling using transistors in their analog native mode 27

28 Models often get simpler at a higher level, not more complex Mandelbrot Set Image Consider an analogy with a computer We do need to understand the detailed physics of semiconductors to model a transistor, and the equations underlying a single real transistor are complex. A digital circuit that multiplies two numbers, however, although involving hundreds of transistors, can be modeled far more simply. 28

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30 The Cerebellum The basic wiring method of the cerebellum is repeated billions of times. It is clear that the genome does not provide specific information about each repetition of this cerebellar structure but rather specifies certain constraints as to how this structure is repeated just as the genome does not specify the exact location of cells in other organs, such the location of each pancreatic Islet cell in the pancreas 30

31 One of the 300 million pattern recognizers in the neocortex 31

32 Two different patterns either of which constitutes A and two different patterns at a higher level ( APPLE and PEAR ) of which A is a part 32

33 Patient A.K. Reprinted by permission from Macmillan Publishers Ltd: NATURE, Itzhak Fried, Charles L. Wilson, Katherine A. MacDonald, Eric J. Behnke,

34 WATSON vanquishes human opponents 34

35 Nanobot Communicating With Neuron 35

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37 Law of Accelerating Returns is Driving Economic Growth The portion of a product or service s value comprised of information is asymptoting to 100% The cost of information at every level incurs deflation at ~ 50% per year This is a powerful deflationary force Completely different from the deflation in the 1929 Depression (collapse of consumer confidence & money supply) 37

38 GDP per capita (1990 international constant dollars) GDP per capita (1990 international constant dollars) GDP per capita (1990 international constant dollars) Linear Plot GDP per capita (1990 international constant dollars) Logarithmic Plot s s 38

39 Dollars Dollars (Millions) Dollars Total Elementary/Secondary Post Secondary U.S. Education Expenditures (constant 2006 dollars) Linear Plot US Education Expenditure Per Capita (constant dollars) Linear Plot Total US Education Expenditure (constant dollars) Logarithmic Plot 39

40 Average years of schooling per person Average s of Schooling Worldwide, All Countries Developed Countries Developing Countries

41 Cost per Watt (2007 Dollars) Megawatts World Average Photovoltaic Module Cost per Watt, Linear Plot $100 $90 $80 Cost per Watt (2007 US Dollars) $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ World Cumulative Photovoltaic Production Logarithmic Plot The cost of unsubsidized solar power is about the same as the cost of electricity from the grid in India and Italy. By 2014 even more countries will achieve solar grid parity. -- Deutsche Bank 41

42 Average Life Expectancy (s) Cro Magnon 18 Ancient Egypt Europe Europe & U.S U.S U.S