Shaping a Bold & Abundant Future. Peter H. Diamandis, MD Penn State University April 2014 Live Tweeting? I

Transcription

1 Shaping a Bold & Abundant Future Peter H. Diamandis, MD Penn State University April 2014 Live Tweeting? I

2 Human development over 150,000+ years LOCAL + LINEAR

3 Human development over 150,000+ years EXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL

4 Disruptive Stress /Opportunity

5 LINEAR EXPONENTIAL 1996 MarketCap: $28B Employees: 140, Bankrupt Employees: 17,000 April 2012 MarketCap: $1B Employees: 13 The New Kodak Moment

6 In 10 years, it s predicted that 40% of the Future 500 Companies will no longer exist. * Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.

7 The average lifespan of a company listed in the S&P 500 has decreased from 67 years in the 1920 s to 15 years today. - Richard Foster, Yale University

8 Singularity University NASA AUTODESK GENENTECH GOOGLE CISCO NOKIA GSP 10^9+ EP Executive Program IPP Fortune-200 C-Suite Executives Mountain View, California

9 Exponential Technology 1. Computation/Networks 2. Artificial Intelligence 3. Robotics 4. 3D Printing 5. Synthetic Biology 6. Digital Medicine LINEAR SU Curriculum EXPONENTIAL Crowd/Community Tools 1. Incentive Competitions 2. (Big) Data Mining 3. Crowdsourcing 4. Crowd Funding 5. DIY Communities 6. Crowd Creativity

10 What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like?

11 Take 30 LINEAR paces meters

12 Take 30 EXPONENTIAL steps 26X around the Earth! ,073,741,824 meters

13 Sensor Explosion Steven Sasson 1000x Resolution 1000x Lighter 1000x cheaper 1,000,000,000 x better st Digital Camera (Kodak) 0.01 MP / 3.75 lbs / $10, Mobile Digital Camera >10 MP / 0.03 lbs / $10 1,000x Resolution & 1,000 lighter & 1,000 cheaper

14 Sensor Explosion Accelerometer: $1 Early ICBM Navigation Inertial Measurement Unit 1960 s $ Millions 50 lbs Velocity/Orientation/Accel. Gyroscope: $3 Molecular Machines Free & embedded

15 Sensor Explosion 1 st commercial GPS Receiver in 1981 Weight: 53 lbs; Cost: $119,900 Single Chip GPS Receiver 2010; <$5 each

16 Moore s Law 5 th Paradigm of Exponential Growth Calculations/Sec per $1000 computer

17 Calculations per Second per $1000 The exponential growth of computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time Year 1

18 Ubiquitous Networks Faster, Cheaper, Computing Power Ubiquitous Sensors Artificial Intelligence Robotics 3D Printing Synthetic Biology Materials Sciences

19 WATSON vanquishes human opponents Artificial Intelligence

20 Artificial Intelligence

21 Infinite Computing 2,880 POWER7 processor cores; 16 Terabytes of RAM 200 million pages of content (Wikipedia) Process 1 million books per second

22 Paradigm Change: Robotics

23 Paradigm Change: Robotics Robotics- Boston Dynamics / Google

24 Paradigm Change: Robotics Robotics - Google s Autonomous Car

25 Paradigm Change: Robotics Robotics - Google s Autonomous Car

26 Light Detection And Ranging) Paradigm Change: Robotics/Sensors LIDAR 64 lasers 10 RPM LIDAR: Light Detection & Ranging 1.3 mil datapoints or 750 Mbytes/second Robotics - Google s Autonomous Car

27 Light Detection And Ranging) Perfect Knowledge, Anything Anytime LEO Constellations ~.5m global resolution 5 Known Constellations Including Skybox Quad Copter ~ 1 cm global resolution Plummeting costs Solar Powered Google Glass ~ 1 mm global resolution

28 3D Printing A $10 Trillion Industry 3D Printing

29 Genome Sequencing & Synthetic Biology 2001 (Sequenced First Human) 2010 (1 st synthetic life) Fuels, Foods & vaccines

30 Critical Insights 1. The rate of innovation is exploding. 2. Innovation is coming from everywhere. 3. If you don t disrupt yourself, then someone else will. 4. Competition is no-longer the multinational overseas 5. If you re dependent upon innovation from (only) inside your company, you ll be dead..so where do you source your innovation?

31 Crowdsourcing Genius

32

33 $10 Million purse Privately funded teams 3 person crew 100 km altitude Two flights within 2 weeks

34 ANSARI X PRIZE Hamid & Anousheh Ansari, Benefactor

35 WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE ARCA Space Transport 26 Teams From 7 Nations Spending > $100 million DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane Armadillo Aerospace StarChaser Pablo DeLeon Scaled Composites

36 October 4th, 2004 Mojave Desert

37

38 Image from Video

39 OPENING A NEW ERA

40 > 10 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million

41

42 VIDEO: Ansari X PRIZE (historical)

43 History Was Made

44 Board of Trustees & Benefactors Jim Cameron LARRY PAGE, CEO, Google RATAN TATA Chairman of Tata Group DR. CRAIG VENTER, Genetic Pioneer Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARI Astronaut & CEO JAMES CAMERON Filmmaker and explorer Jim Gianopulos Wendy Schmidt DEAN KAMEN, CEO, DEKA Research RAY KURZWEIL Inventor & Futurist ELON MUSK CEO, Tesla & SpaceX JIM GIANOPULOS Chairman/CEO, FOX WENDY SCHMIDT Schmidt Family Fndtn

45 Prize Groups Life Sciences Exploration Sponsored Energy & Environment Learning & Global Development

46 $30 million Plus, $30 million in NASA contracts

47 ~20 Teams from around the world

48 Does it have to be a $10M purse?

49 $1.4 million Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min

50 $1.4 million 350 pre-registered teams 10 Finalists head to head 7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement Top Team = 6x Improvement

51 $1.4 million 350 pre-registered teams 10 Finalists head to head Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min 7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement Top Team = 6x Improvement

52 $10M HEALTHCARE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND FUNDED BY THE QUALCOMM FOUNDATION

53 Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team Distribution 3 from Ireland 25 from UK 2 from Sweden 2 from Denmark 1 from Czech Rep. 2 from Russia 16 from Canada 115 from USA 5 from Germany 1 from Switzerland 1 from Portugal 2 from Italy 1 from Turkey 1 from Austria 2 from Bulgaria 2 from Georgia 2 from China 4 from Singapore 1 from Kuwait 1 from Yemen 1 from Brazil 1 from Saudi Arabia 2 from Australia 1 from Argentina >330 TOTAL TEAMS 33 NATIONS AS OF from India

54 Where is X PRIZE going next?

55

56 Insights Incentive Prizes Any grand challenge can be attacked with an Incentive Prize (XPRIZE). Pay only the winner; & drive a new industry. Teams spend 10 50x the prize purse. Tap into the world s smartest innovators.

57 If you d like a copy of my PPT slides... Text your First Name & to: (310)

58 ABUNDANCE: The Future Is Better Than You Think #1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times We are heading towards a world of Abundance Really?

59 AMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATION ALL AUDIO INFORMATION

60 The End of Poverty (June 2013)

61 The Decline of Violence In primitive societies 15% of people died violently; now 0.03% do Violence is 1/500 th of what it used to be. Prof. Steven Pinker, Harvard

62 AL ALUMINUM Au GOLD NAPOLEON III AG SILVER THE KING OF SIAM

63 Technology can take that which was scarce, and makes it Abundant..

64 ABUNDANCE: ENERGY

65 Solar Exponential Change $35 SOLAR PANELS AVG. PRICE PER WATT 8,000 ANNUAL PV PRODUCTION MWATTS $30 7,000 $ % 6,000 5,000 $20 4,000 $15 3,000 $ : 84 2,000 $5 1,000 $ Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 percent in They are now just one quarter of what they were in Source: GTM Research

66 ABUNDANCE: WATER

67 ABUNDANCE: COMMUNICATIONS

68 ABUNDANCE: HEALTH & EDUCATION

69 FORCE: Rising Billion 8.0 GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS) Global Population Internet Users % % 23% 3 BILLION NEW MINDS

70 What will 3 Billion New Minds create discover consume desire invent Tens of trillions of annual PP Greatest period of Innovation (ever)

71 If you d like a copy of my PPT slides... Text your First Name & to: (310)

72 For a copy of these slides: Text your First Name & to: (310) Singularity University XPRIZE Foundation Follow