Is an Exponential Organization A Problem or an Opportunity?

Transcription

1 Is an Exponential Organization A Problem or an Opportunity? 1

2 1. Introduction 2. Definition of ExO 3. Brief history of ExO 4. Why are ExOs ten times better, faster and cheaper 5. Massive Transformative Purpose (MTP) -Five external attributes (SCALE) -Five internal attributes (IDEAS) 6. Why ExO concerns Engineering Companies 7. Risks and opportunities 8. How to manage ExO in an engineering Company 9. Conclusion 10. Discussion 2

3 In 2011 futurists predicted that within 10 years 40% of existing Fortune 500 Companies would no longer survive. 3

4 The average lifespan of an S&P 500 company has decreased from 65 years in the 1920s to 15 years today - Richard Foster - Yale University 4

5 INFINITE COMPUTING SENSORS NETWORKS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 5

6 ROBOTICS DIGITAL MANUFACTURING SYNTHETIC BIOLOGY DIGITAL MEDICINE NANOMATERIALS 6

7 INNOVATORS CROWDFUNDING 7

8 Exponential technologies, capabilities and knowledge that were once under the domain of powerful goverments and the world s largest corporate giants are now tools in the hands of entrepreneurs. 8

9 - How can we harness all this creative power? - How can we construct an enterprise that is as quick, adept and innovative as the people who will be part of it? - How will we compete in this accelerated new world? - How will we organize to scale? 9

10 An Exponential Organization (ExO) is one whose Impact (or output) is disproportionally large - at least 10x larger - compared to its peers because of the use of new organizational techniques that leverage exponential technologies 10

11 In 2009 the ExO paradigm was first identifided by experts as a weak signal After 2 years, in 2011, it was revealed that several new organizations were following a specific model. Since 2011 they have been seriously researching this ExO model at the Singularity University. In 2014 Salim Ismail wrote a specific book called Exponential Organizations and this new paradigm has assumed a central role in the modern economy. 11

12 NASA research park, CA (U.S.) Our mission is to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity s grand challenges. Singularity University is a benefit corporation based in San Francisco that provides educational programs, innovative partnerships and a startup accelerator to help individuals, businesses, institutions, investors, NGOs and governments understand cutting-edge technologies, and how to utilize these technologies to positively impact billions of people. 12

13 Book stores Newspapers Local stores Travel agencies Record stores 13

14 Every single job function we can identify is being fundamentally transformed Even old industries such as construction are in the throes of disruption. - David Rose Angel investor 14

15 Increased collaboration More sophisticated design software (BIM) 3D Printing Mike Halsall Construction company executive 15

16 Halsall estimates that the sum of these disruptions could reduce the number of people working in construction by MORE than 25% within 10 years. 16

17 After 10 years and $ 10 Billion invested We are now leaders in satellite communications! IRIDIUM MOMENT 17

18 After 10 years and $ 10 Billion invested We are now leaders in satellite communications! IRIDIUM MOMENT 18

19 After 10 years and $ 10 Billion invested We are now leaders in satellite communications! IRIDIUM MOMENT 19

20 1975 Sasson showed first digital camera device to his bosses at Kodak. At the time, it took 50 milliseconds to capture the image but 23 seconds to record it to tape. If your employee came to you in 1975 and told you he d invented the digital camera, what would you do? If you were Kodak, the answer was to effectively shove him in a closet and hope the product never reached the mass market. His bosses were unimpressed. They were convinced that no one would ever want to look at their pictures on a television set. 20

21 But actually everybody wanted to look at their pictures on a smartphone 21

22 years in business 13 employees Facebook bought Instagram for $1 BILLION In the meantime 22

23 MARKET CAP TO 1 BILLION 23

24 Rey Kurzweil Identifies a Right Fundamental Observation: When you shift to an information-based environment, the pace of development jumps onto an exponential growth path, and price/performance doubles every year or two. Rey Kurzweil, Singularity University co-founder 24

25 LINEAR vs EXPONENTIAL 25

26 LINEAR vs EXPONENTIAL Disruptive stress/opportunity Deceptive growth Knee 26

27 Mead s Law If the amount of computer power for a given cost doubles every two years, then the cost of computing power must halve over the same period 27

28 Economy of Abundance Everything that bits touch is also touched by their unique economic properties cheaper, better. faster. 28

29 DNA SEQUENCING $2.7 B (2000) 29 $ (2011) $100 (2014) 1P (2020)

30 3D PRINTING $ (2007) SCALE: 400x in 7 years $100 (2014) 30

31 CONTOUR CRAFTING (HOUSEPRINTING) PREDICTED A 60% COST REDUCTION 31

32 DRONES $ (2007) SCALE: 142x in 6 years $700 (2013) 32

33 INDUSTRIAL ROBOTS $ (2008) SCALE: 23x in 5 years $ (2013) 33

34 SOLAR ENERGY $30 kwh (1984) SCALE: 200x in 30 years $0.16 kwh (2014) 34

35 ENGINEERING SERVICES IN ITALY: % ? % 2020

36 Peter Diamandis Co-founder of Singularity university XPrize CEO and Chairman DEMOCRATIZE DEMONETIZE DEMATERIALIZE DISRUPTIVE DIGITIZED (INFORMATION TECH) DECEPTIVE 36

37 Now, after 20 years, ALL of these fit in your pocket and come for free on your smartphone! 37

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39 Our organizational structures have evolved mainly to manage scarcity of people, money and assets / resources The concept of ownership works well for scarcity. Accessing or sharing works better in an abundant, Information based world. 39

40 Traditional organisational structures, designed over the last hundred years to manage physical assets or people, are rapidly becoming obsolete. 40

41 To compete in our rapidly changing world, we need a new kind of organsation, one that is not only able to manage this change, but also thrive on it. 41

42 Exponential Organizations have the capability to adapt to this new world of deep and ubiquitous information and convert it into a competitive advantage. The ExO, is in fact the appropriate commercial response to our exponential new world. 42

43 A traditional consumer packaged goods company takes up to 300 days to move a new product from invention to retail store shelves. This is considered blistering pace. is an ExO in the consumer packaged goods Industry. It accomplishes this same cycle in only 29 days. 43

44 Founded in Employees listings in cities -NO physical assets Value: $10 BILLION This is MORE than Hotels and resorts Employees -550 properties 44

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46 ExO = MTP + SCALE + IDEAS 46

47 MTP is the highest, aspirational purpose of the organization, capturing the hearts and minds of those both inside and (especially) outside the organization. 47

48 Ideas worth spreading Organize the world s information Make inventions accessible 48

49 ExO = MTP + SCALE + IDEAS Technologies 49

50 Why does ExO concern Engineering Companies? Because The confluence of breakthrough Technologies -BIM, Cloud Computing and 3D Printing Crowdsourcing options - Collaborative Commons, Internet of Things, Social Media, - Collaborative consumption and Sharing Economy And Crowdfunding Opportunities create a compelling scenario for a new engineering exponential company creation. 50

51 Today if you are not disrupting yourself, someone else is; our future Outcome is to be either disrupter or disrupted. There is no middleground. 51

52 1) OUR MTP: Collaborative Engineering, a revolution for the benefit of humanity 2) OUR community: 52

53 3) Our CORE TEAM is composed of: 1 CEO (Chief Exponential Officer) 2 Project Manager 3 Procurement manager 4 BIM manager 5 Information Technology Manager 6 Community & Social Manager 7 Staff 53

54 4) Our Breakthrough Idea: Thrive in zero marginal cost Engineering 5) OUR Business Model: Lean StartUP Immediacy Personalization Authenticity Findability 6) OUR MVP (minimum viable product): TE.x purpose is to cut the cost of engineering services by about... 54

55 7) SCALE and IDEAS All 10 Attributes have been implemented 8) Our OPEN SOURCE paradigm has been established 9) ExO attributes are evolving quickly so TE.x continually revises and updates the model. 10) Our open Platform is being implemented and designed in order to facilitate peer-to-peer interactions. 55

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63 AUTONOMY 63

64 The Exponential Organization is the future for any enterprise with a strong information component, which is, of course, every enterprise. You can enter this new world now or later. But, in the end, you will enter it. Thank you for your attention. 64

65 Bibliography: -Salim Ismail, Exponential Organizations, Jeremy Rifkin,The zero marginal cost society, Chris Anderson, Free: The future of a radical price, Rita Gunther McGrath, The end of competitive advantage, Ashlee Vance, Elon Musk, Eric Ries, The lean StartUp, Peter Thiel, Zero to One: notes on startups or how to build the future, Patrick Lencioni, The advantage, Ben Horowitz, The hard thing about hard things, Alexander Osterwalder, Value Proposition Design, Clayton Christensen, The innovators Dilemma, 2011 The World of Collaborative Engineering is an open source community built on collaboration, sharing, respect and transparency. Feel free to join us on 65