Three Work/Technology Global Scenarios for 2050

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1 Three Work/Technology Global Scenarios for 2050 World Strategy Forum 2016 Seoul, Korea Jerome C. Glenn, CEO The Millennium Project

2 Artificial General Intelligence and/or Super Intelligence that can autonomously write and improve its code by responding to feedback from sensor networks worldwide, will accelerate AI s intelligence worldwide moment by moment When this begins to happen, the speed of increasing AI s intelligence will be far faster and produce more change than Moore s Law

3 Will our artificial Brains out think us? Artificial Intelligence 1. Artificial Narrow Intelligence 2. Artificial General Intelligence 3. Artificial Super Intelligence

4 Computational Science Computational biology Computational Chemistry All accelerated with Moore s Law AND autonomous AI programing worldwide Computational Physics

5 These three together will change what we think is possible Artificial Intelligence Moore s Law Computational Science

6 EU, US, China Human Brain Projects; Google & IBM artificial brain projects Increasing Intelligence: both Individual and Collective Intelligence

7 Steve Jobs and Bill Gates 1991 By 2030 billions of people could be augmented geniuses, and what could they create?

8 Old Way of Seeing Future Technologies Artificial Intelligence Artificial General Intelligence Drones Nanotechnology 3-D4-D Priting Computational Science Robotic manufacturing Tele-Everything & Tele-Everybody the Semantic Web Quantum computing Synthetic Biology

9 Future Way of Seeing Future Technologies - Integration/Synergies

10 Future Technology Synergies Quantum computing Robotic manufacturing Synthetic Biology Increasing individual and collective intelligence Drones Robotic manufacturing 3D,4D Printing Augmented Reality Tele-Presence, Holographics Nanotechnology Nanotechnology Artificial General Intelligence Tele-Everything Tele-Everybody the Semantic Web

11 Future Technology Synergies Robotic manufacturing Quantum computing Drones Robotic manufacturing 3D,4D Printing Artificial Intelligence Augmented Reality, Tele-Presence, Holographics Future Technology

12 Integration of photovoltaics, robotics, satellites, AI, drones, ICT, and generic engineering

13 Emerging Technologies Matrix If \ Then Nanotechnology Synthetic Biology Artificial Intelligence Robotics 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Nanotechnology xxx Synthetic Biology xxx Artificial Intelligence Robotics xxx xxx 3-D Printing xxx Augmented Reality xxx

14 IoT AI Contact Lens always in Virtual Reality connected to the word Hands-free, phone free, laptop free, AI-human symbiosis

15 Conscious-Technology Age Humans becoming cyborgs Built environment becoming intelligent When the distinction between these two mega trends becomes blurred, we will have reached the Post-Information Age

16 Simplification/Generalization of History and an Alternative Future Age / Element Product Power Wealth Place War Time Agricultural Extraction Food/Res Religion Land Earth/Res Location Cyclical Industrial Machine Nation-State Capital Factory Resources Linear Information Info/serv Corporation Access Office Perception Flexible Conscious- Technology Linkage Individual Being Motion Identity Invented

17 Technology Changes Consciousness and Consciousness Changes Technology Technology Consciousness

18 Future Mind: Artificial Intelligence Merging the Mystical and the Technological in by the 21 st Century Jerome C. Glenn 1989

19 If you can t beat AI, why not join with it? and evolve together?

20 Inevitability of New Economics Concentration of wealth is increasing Income gaps are widening Employmentless economic growth seems the new norm Return on Investment in capital and technology is usually better than labor Future technologies can replace much of human labor Long-term structural unemployment is a business as usual surprise free forecast What can we do about this?

21 Future of Work/Technology 2050 Study 1. Literature and Related Research Review 2. Real-Time Delphi 3. Road Maps and Scenario Drafts 4. RTDelphi Feedback on the Scenarios 5. Final Scenarios, Policy Implications, and produce initial report 6. Initial Report as input to the National Planning Workshops 7. Collect results of the national planning workshops, analyze & synthesize results 8. Final report for public discussion

22 Global Work/Technology Scenarios It s Complicated - A Mixed Bag 2. Political/Economic Turmoil Future Despair 3. If Humans Were Free The Self-Actualizing Economy

23 Global Employment Scenario Assumptions Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion Self-Employed 2 Billion 1 Billion 3 Billion Unemployed or in transition Informal Economy 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion 1 Billion 2 Billion 1 Billion

24 Will STEM Education (S&T, Engineering, Mathematics) Make a Difference? After 2030 as AI learns how to learn in general, simultaneously and world/wide?

25 Examples of Issues for Korea s Long-Rang Strategy? 1. Education: How should education, training, and learning systems change? And what strategies will make that happen? 2. Government: Will a guaranteed income program become necessary? What kind? When? Cash flow projections to show what is possible? 3. S&T (AI/Robotics/synthetic biology/nanotech) changes affecting work by 2025, 2035, 2050? 4. Culture: What changes in culture will be needed? culture that says jobs/employment is the source of self-respect? 5. Business: What should be the roles of private business in a national long-range strategy? Reducing income gaps and concentration of wealth. These issues become the Workshops Groups

26 Some Considerations for Korea s Strategy Education/Learning: Make increasing intelligence an objective of education In parallel to STEM, create self-paced inquiry-based learning for self-actualization Begin shift from mastering a profession to mastering combinations of skills Increased focus on developing creativity, critical thinking, human relations, philosophy, entrepreneurship, self-employment, ethics, and values. Government: Produce alternative cash flow projections for universal basic income (consider: License and tax AI/robots and their creations, reduction of tax havens, value added tax, and taxes on carbon, massive wealth growth from new technologies, minimum corporate tax, etc.). Work with other countries to establish the International S&T Organization (ISTO) Create and implement a global counter organized crime strategy Add TransInstitutional law in addition to for-profit and non-profit law

27 Some Considerations for Korea s Strategy Science & Technology Augment Movement Tech to augment humans; not replace them What are the likely impacts of AI and AGI? When? Could synthetic biology create more jobs than AI replaces? Create ISTO (International S&T Organization as an online collective intelligence system not as a mew bureaucracy) Culture: Arts, media, entertainment, computer games to explore cultural transition to self-actualization economy Media/Arts Alliance to create the One Species movement Invest into what replaces you.

28 Some Considerations for Korea s Strategy Business: Invest in and promote Kickstarter-like crowd sourcing platforms to expand business startups and share the wealth of success Create personal AI/Avatars to support self-employment Individual augment genius apps International collaboration to create ISTO Synergetic intelligence, synergetic advantage and strategy as well as competitive intelligence, completive advantage and strategy Qualitivity as well as productivity Memes in advertisements to help create the cultural transition World Billionaires Club on Global Strategic Philanthropy World Cyber Game to explore self-employment New roles for labor unions Augment Movement; NT Data base

29 Strategic Questions: Will synthetic biology create microbes to clean the plaque in the brain making the elderly more productive? Will AI re-write its own code and set its own goals? Will the job culture change to accept self-employment for self-actualizaton? Will next technologies create more jobs that they replace? Can universal basic income be financially sustainable?

30 Future Work/Tech Strategic Planning Workshop Process

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33 For further information Jerome C. Glenn phone/fax Global Futures Intelligence System: State of the Future: Futures Research Methodology 3.0: