Dr RV Ahilan 20 th March 2018

Transcription

1 Dr RV Ahilan 20 th March 2018

2 ONE PARTNER. WORLDWIDE SUPPORT 一个合作伙伴 国际资源支持 Renewables 新能源 Shipping 航运 Established 1979 成立 LOC Group Marine and Engineering Consultants Oil & Gas 能源 400+ staff 员工 30 offices 办事处 Established 1979 建立于 1979 年 Premier marine warranty surveying firm in O&G 海上石油天然气领域主要的海事保险检验人 No.1 marine warranty surveying firm with >30 Offshore wind farms warranted 为超过 30 个海上风电场执行过海事保险检验, 市场份额第一 Design engineers and analysts on >30 OWFs through sister company Longitude 通过全资子公司 Longitude 为超过 30 个海上风电项目提供过独立计算和设计服务 Just completed the Infrastructure & Logistics scope for the Carbon Trust Floating Wind JIP for 500MW Farm. 刚刚完成了 Carbon Trust Floating Wind JIP 500 兆瓦的基础设施和物流范围 Currently running the MWS on one of the largest FIDs ($37bn) taken in 正在进行 2016 年最大的海事保险检验项目 Design and consultancy spanning sky to seabed in offshore wind 离岸上风电项目全套完善服务 ( 从天空到海床的设计和咨询 ) Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key Lessons Learned - Taipei - 20 March

3 The Panel 專家組 Liu Ying-Ru, President, CR Classification Society Dr Tim Camp, Director, Turbine Engineering, LOC Renewables Tonni Bager, Principal Consultant, Head of Construction, COP Nicolas Cazeres, Managing Director, Longitude Engineering Singapore Koen van der Perk, Senior Vice President Commercial, Seaway Heavy Lifting

4 Three themes to be discussed in the Panel: 專家組將討論的三個主題 Cost and technology trends & transfer of technology Design challenges Taiwan vs rest of the world Infrastructure, logistical challenges and interfaces

5 LCOE/Price Trend 價格趨勢 [1] IRENA (2018), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2017, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi [2] Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key Lessons Learned - Taipei - 20 March

6 Cost reduction pointers 降低成本的指針 [1]

7 Turbine Technology Trends 風力發電機組科技的發展趨勢 HAWT Drivetrains Scale Item Units Proposed Design Basis TURBINE Rating 6MW 10MW 15MW Range Rated Power MW Air Density t/m^3 1.22E E E-03 Rotor Diameter m Swept Area m^ Rated Wind Speed m/s Max Rotor Speed RPM Hub Height m Number of Upwind Blades Control VSIP VSIP VSIP VSIP Drivetrain Direct Gearbox Gearbox/Direct Rotor mass t Tower Top Mass t Nacelle Mass t Tower Mass t Blade Mass t Hub Mass t Overall Mass t Turbines VAWT Downwind Yaw Bearings Deck Level Gearbox

8 Wind Resource Technology Innovations 風能資源技術創新 Wind Resource Modelling Measurements Atmospheric & Wake Modelling O&G Hindcasts Satellitte & LiDAR

9 Foundation Technology Trends 基礎科技的發展趨勢 Monopile Fixed Jacket/Tripod GBS Depth Geotechnics Natural Periods Foundations Spar Floating Semi Barge TLP Speed Turbulence Scale ? Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key Lessons Learned - Taipei - 20 March

10 Electricity Transmission Technology Trends 輸電科技發展趨勢 Higher Voltage Dynamic Design Electricity Transmission Remote Sensing Distributed Substations Cost/Contractual

11 Installation Trends 安裝趨勢 Single Unit Semi, Spar, GBS, Barge Self Install Installation Jackup to DP Deeper, Floater, Heavier, Higher OSP: Floatover vs Modular Decks More Installation & Commissioning

12 O&M Trends 操作和維護趨勢 Access vs Remote CTVs, WTW O&M SCADA CBM Big Data, AI

13 Crystal Ball 水晶球 Turbine to Farm Model Small to Large Component to System Shallow to Deep Inspection Storage Individual Small Specialist Fixed Physical Variable Individual Medium Integrated Fixed Physical Variable Farm >10MW Control Integrated Floating Remote Dispatchable Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key Lessons Learned - Taipei - 20 March

14 Local Capability according to TWTIA, 2017 本地能力根據 TWTIA, 2017 Vessels Infrastructure > 2 Wharves needed by 2019 Piers needed to meet the transportation demand for foundations Wharves needed for daily O&M activities Construction vessels Turbine components Grid connections Offshore substations

15 Claims (Ref: PO223, EWEA Offshore Copenhagen, 2015) 索賠 (Ref: PO223, EWEA Offshore Copenhagen, 2015) Warnock, McMillan, Pilgrim and Shenton (2016): Export cable failure rate is failures/year (50km length); Lost Production ~ 16m (300MW, 3 months) this does not even cover the replacement/repair cost Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key Lessons Learned - Taipei - 20 March

16 Global Capacity Forecast by EY (May 2017) EY 全球產能預測 (May 2017) A Banker s view additionally identifying Canada & Poland Contracting Financing and Constructiing Offshore Wind Farms - Key Countries to Lessons drop Learned out - Taipei of -the 20 March Top by 2024 Countries to enter Top 10 16

17 Observations 觀察 Cost trends in offshore are already dramatic; comparison with onshore shows we ain t finished yet! Taiwan set to get into the Top 10 by 2024 Europe did not get it right first time witness LCOE trend; Taiwan has an opportunity to learn from somebody else s mistakes In construction phase the dominant failures have occurred with cables and foundations; a golden opportunity exists to avoid them through relentless focus on design and construction In O&M, gearbox damage dominate; leapfrogging to larger direct drive turbines could help? Taiwan specific issues typhoon & earthquakes - need focus and have no precedence in the European experience

18 ONE PARTNER WORLDWIDE SUPPORT 一个合作伙伴, 国际资源支持

19 Panel Questions 專家提問 1. What key lessons have we learned from designing offshore wind farms form your perspective. Are these lessons easily transferable? 2. Offshore wind in Europe went through a painful learning process with LCOE rising initially even until 2013 but seems to have turned the corner. Does Taiwan have to go through the same pain? 3. What lessons have we learned in Europe with respect to construction/installation that we can rapidly transmit? What can we not because of local conditions? 4. We always talk about Typhoons and Earthquakes what other issues in construction and O&M make it a challenge and an opportunity in Taiwan. 5. Has Taiwan Offshore Wind industry established guidelines for how to deal with typhoons/earthquakes in construction phase even if we have dealt with inplace performance under these conditions? Do we need these? 6. I think scale, competition and finance were keys to unlocking offshore wind costs; In scale, we have technology. Other panels have talked about what we can learn about competitive landscape and finance. What general and Taiwan specific technologies can help us push further, faster 7. Cables have been painful part of OWF 60%-80% of claims; what recommendations will you make to help Taiwan avoid the same statistics 8. Foundations the lessons we learned with grouted connections are they well learned in the specifics as well as the general that is check for errors in code and don t extrapolate O&G without thinking? 9. Where do you see the arms race of larger and larger turbines ending up and at what timescale? Gearbox vs DD? 10. What O&M challenges will we face when we have to do major component replacement and having to lift 1000t up 150m? 11. Floating? 12. Final message to our guests today?