Oil and Gas Diversification: High Potential Areas, Key Challenges (Operations & Maintenance) BVG Associates ~ Alan Duncan

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1 Oil and Gas Diversification: High Potential Areas, Key Challenges (Operations & Maintenance) BVG Associates ~ Alan Duncan

2 Agenda Serving both O&G and Offshore Wind: a marriage made in heaven or a marriage of convenience? Presentation coverage BVGA ~ Selected clients The European opportunity: offshore wind market size and key big picture challenges Ease of diversification: high potential areas of supply Journey to subsidy free : the all encompassing cost challenge Operations and maintenance: overview and challenges Final thoughts: how to position your company for success BVG Associates Business advisory Analysis and forecasting Strategic advice Business and supply chain development Economics Socioeconomics and local benefits Technology and project economic modelling Policy and local content assessment Technology Engineering services Due diligence Strategy and R&D support

3 Installed capacity (GW) Cumulative installed capacity (GW) Offshore wind: the European opportunity UK #1 global market to 2025 total global wind farm investment over 100bn in the next 10 years Deployment boom: think about supply logic Where does the money go? New capacity deployment in UK likely to run at 1-1.5GW through 2020 s. DE likely to remain #2, NL and FR to deploy at pace from around Cost driven largely by site conditions, can be split into 35 broad sub-elements with O&M the largest at almost 40%. With 7700 turbines installed by 2025, each operating for 25 years+, the O&M market is likely to increase tenfold. Typical cost breakdown for a UK Round 3 project. CAPEX ~65% of lifetime costs. Typical lifetime cost estimate is 3.6m per MW / 1.8bn for a 500MW windfarm. Major service 7% OMS other 12% Surveys 0.3% Wind farm design 0.2% Development and project management 2% Project other 1.5% Turbine assembly 1% Blades 7% Source: BVG Associates Castings and forgings 2% Drive train 8% European market 11GW in 2015 to 41GW by Operation, maintenance and service 39% Wind turbine supply 26% Tower 4% Turbine other Operation, maintenance and minor service 20% Installation and commissioning 14% Balance of plant 19% Substations 6% 4% Subsea export cables 2% 1% Subsea array cables '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 Year of turbine installation DE DK FR NL UK Other Europe Cumulative Installation other 3% Subsea cable installation 4% Foundation installation 4.5% Turbine installation 2% Installation ports 0.5% Foundations 9% Balance of plant other 1%

4 % UK content CAPEX supply- multiple projects / OPEX supply- longevity Understanding where you fit within the supply chain is paramount Supply opportunities vary by area of lifecycle Manufacturing, installation and commissioning ~ high spend, concentrated timeframe. Operations, maintenance and servicing ~ moderate annual spend, extended. As we move to 100% larger sites 80% further from 60% shore, new offshore 40% subsea marine 20% challenges exist. 0% Source: BVG Associates TOTEX DEVEX CAPEX OPEX 3% 57% 40% 0.1bn 2.4bn 1.7bn Source: EDPR (Moray) ~ 4.2bn 25 year spend (500MW mid size wind farm)

5 Average water depth (m) Turbine rating (MW) Distance to O&M port (km) Average wind speed (m/s) The deployment challenge bigger, further, deeper. 33 projects in Europe ~ Significant variation, but upward trends in water depth and turbine size

6 How to diversify: Oil & Gas deep-dive First analysis in a concerted effort by Team Scotland to support our Scottish O&G supply chain find diversification opportunities in these challenging times for the industry.

7 Offshore wind high potential diversification areas Supply chain split into 35 sub-element areas of supply 9 hot spots Considers O&G track record in wind, supply synergies, appetite, cost-out potential, investment & size of the prize 1. Project management 2. Array cables 3. Substation structures 4. Turbine foundations 5. Secondary steelwork 6. Cable installation 7. Installation equipment 8. Installation support services 9. Operations, maintenance & inspection services

8 Journey to subsidy free why it s important Our biggest challenge as an industry is LCOE reduction: do you bring cost innovative solutions? Cost of Energy Reduction = Offshore Wind Subsidy free by 23.

9 The innovation cost reduction challenge Moving to large turbines is the largest contributor, OMS to deliver 3-4% LCOE improvement. 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% LCOE for a wind farm with FID in 2014 Increase in turbine rating Improvements in components Improvements in blade aerodynamics Improvements in blade materials and manufacture Improvements in blade pitch control Introduction of multi-variable optimisation of array layouts Improvements in monopile designs and design standards Improvements in AC power take-off system design Improvements in OMS strategy for far-from-shore wind farms 43 other innovations LCOE for a wind farm with FID in 2030

10 OMS: challenges, potential innovative impacts Solutions required for the next generation wind farms: CBM, automation and marine logistics. LCOE impact 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Improvements in OMS strategy for far-from-shore wind farms Source: BVG Associates Introduction of turbine condition-based maintenance Introduction of remote and automated M&S Improvements in personnel access Introduction of wind farm wide control strategies Improvements in personnel transfer from base to turbine location Improvements in weather forecasting Improvements in jacket condition monitoring Improvements in inventory management Anticipated by 2030 Potential by 2030

11 Major challenges and role of the supply chain Logic for collaboration in OPEX phase: not competing as strike price already defined (15 years) Operations, maintenance and service: the journey OMS Technology Scheduled maintenance Full health and usage management Some conditionbased, but mostly reactive service Fully condition-based service with active health management Improved forecasting Main per MW benefits Decreased OPEX Increased AEP Supply chain Turbine suppliers, developers in-house and 3 rd -party service providers Contract ranges from 1-15 years (turbine) In-house monitoring and data control by owners Emergence of integrated 3 rd part service suppliers Portfolio approach

12 Market tasks: Operations, maintenance and servicing High local potential: 2bn UK market by 2025 Operation, mantenance and service 41% Inventory managemen t 0% Communicat ion systems 1% O&M ports 2% Other OPEX 19% Vessels and equipment 36% Fuel and consumable s 4% Maintenanc e and inspection services 33% Spare parts 5% Based on the UK Government s projections for the deployment of offshore wind, the O&M of more than 5,500 offshore turbines could be worth 2bn per annum by 2025 an industry similar in size to the UK passenger aircraft service business today. Market Abstract: Challenge ~ Uncertainty over the OMS strategies adopted by developers as projects are built further from shore. Solution ~ Oil and gas suppliers have a vast amount of experience in maintaining assets in the North Sea: synergies in terms of defect detection, planned maintenance and asset repair are extremely high. Innovative approaches from the oil and gas sector will be welcomed by offshore wind asset owners. Courtesy DNV-GL

13 O&M: understanding the customer and the opportunity The O&M contracting dichotomy (very little out of warranty so no defined direction of travel) Above the water Turbine Turbine OEM offers warranty (up to 5 years). Emergence of third party OMS providers pushing this towards 15 years. Now: subcontract opportunities with turbine OEM. Future: more availability-linked contracts : third party OMS contracting with asset owner space for an EPC-type offering one stop shop approach. Substations & Offshore Assets ie met masts OMS subcontract opportunities with OFTO and/or developer. Under the water Foundations No real OEM warranties contracting with the asset owner Transmission ie array and export cables No real OEM warranties contracting with the OFTO and/or developer. Key challenges hot issues A general push towards diverless solutions Innovate to reduce cost new approaches considered Asset life extension is a key play Many subsea assets now having to have retrofit corrosion protection Over 50% of insurance warranty claims related to cables Abstract: SOV versus CTV Industry at point of inflection face of O&M will be defined by which direction the industry takes. Siemens pushing SOV solutions above 60Km from shore, becomes cost competitive Use of offshore accommodation blocks and daughter ships still to be fully explored Courtesy DNV-GL

14 O&M: challenges and addressing perceived challenges The O&M contracting dichotomy (very little out of warranty so no defined direction of travel) Challenges for Oil & Gas companies to navigate Offshore wind is driven by turbine manufactures and utilities, which have distinct cultures. The industry has matured without oil and gas Where to target the O&M market (i) Reduce cost through the introduction of innovative repair techniques Perception of oil and gas companies being too expensive. Need to prepared to bust that myth or cost reduce Automated inspection Cable joint repair Cable scour inspection Condition based monitoring Offshore wind is not actively looking for oil and gas skills. Oil and gas companies need to be proactive and show how they can make a difference Offshore wind doesn t have a long-term vision of the O&M supply chain. Oil and gas companies need to be able to articulate a strategy based on what it can bring to offshore wind Drone inspections Remote cable monitoring / inspection Subsea inspection (active and passive) Lack of track record and presence of long term service agreements mean that oil and gas entry will need to be evolutionary. Oil and gas companies should aim to build up experience by providing individual services before building up a portfolio that enables a more integrated service to be offered (ii) Increase access windows Decision making tools Turbine access Satellite applications Vessels & manpower marine logistic optimisation Key to successful diversification - ensure there is capability overlap between legacy and new offshore wind next generation requirements.

15 Final thoughts Things to consider Diversification can be a great business strategy - a targeted move into a new sector can spread risk, generate new revenue and reduce unit costs. Two-way learning - processes and innovative thinking developed over decades in oil and gas can be transferred to offshore wind ~ rapid cost reduction, standardisation and faster deployment techniques in offshore wind can benefit oil and gas. O&M is a key area for considering where each part of the supply chain is: Adopt, Adapt, Develop & Collaborate. Adopt - many practices from oil and gas can be adopted for the betterment of offshore wind as is. Adapt - what core capabilities in O&G can be modified for use within offshore wind? Develop - many longer term solutions in offshore wind not yet clear: O&G thinking can help shape. Collaborate - logical sense for operators, developers, suppliers and academia to work together to bring about positive change particularly within the O&M space. Please get in touch, I am more than happy to chat through how your company can position itself for success across the renewables spectrum. adu@bvgassociates.co.uk BVG Associates Ltd The Blackthorn Centre Purton Road Cricklade, Swindon SN6 6HY UK tel +44(0) BVG Associates Ltd The Boathouse Silversands Aberdour, Fife KY3 0TZ UK tel +44(0) Marriage made in heaven or a marriage of convenience? Too early to say, but if you don t get your best clobber on and brush up on your chat up lines, yer no even getting a first winch. This presentation and its content is copyright of BVG Associates Limited -. All rights are reserved.

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