Industrials China paper

Transcription

1 Industrials China paper Walden Shing* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations 1

2 2 Sector structure Paper Paper producers Asia-Pacific Equity Research Nine Dragons Lee and Man Youyuan Fook Woo Hengan Vinda International Source: HSBC

3 Sector price history 80% Share price performance (%) 60% 40% Nine Dragons Lee and Man Youy uan Fook Woo Hengan Vinda International Pulp prices in China trended higher in 1H11, but hav e started falling since July due to sluggish demand in the US and Europe in light of thesummer low season. Contract prices for premium Pulp prices hav e risen from USD580 (short fiber) and USD680 (long fiber) per ton in January 2012 to USD670 and USD720 respectiv ely in April Asia-Pacific Equity Research 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% August is usually the peak season for China containerboard manufacturers, as there is higher demand for beverage packaging in the summer and gift packaging due to the Mid-Autumn Festiv al. Nonetheless, containerboard prices have so far remained flat, despite higher energy and labour costs. This reflects soft demand in China s containerboard market. Fook Woo suspended trading since late Nov ember -80% Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 May 11 Jun 11 Jul 11 Aug 11 Sep 11 Oct 11 Nov 11 Dec 11 Jan 12 Feb 12 Mar 12 Apr 12 May 12 3 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC

4 Sector description This sector can be broadly classified into two major segments, packaging paper and tissue paper. Packaging paper mainly comprises linerboard and corrugating medium which are used to produce corrugated boxes. Major players in this segment include Nine Dragons and Lee & Man Paper. The tissue paper segment includes handkerchief tissue, facial tissue and toilet rolls. In China, Hengan was the leading tissue paper by sales volume in 2010 with a market share of 8.6% (source: China National Household Paper Industry Association). Walden Shing* Analyst The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited waldenshing@hsbc.com.hk *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Key themes Tissue paper: a recession-proof product Tissue paper is a recession-proof product in developed markets. Although Europe is a mature market, consumption continued to grow 1.8-3% pa during Despite per-capita consumption in western Europe already topping 16kg, tissue paper consumption continued to grow during The only decline in consumption was in 2009 due to the global financial crisis and the fall was much smaller than for many other products. Packaging paper: Still in a consolidation phase For packaging paper, new capacity planned during good times in early 2010 gradually came on-stream in 2011 and At the same time, packaging paper consumption growth has slowed down since In 2011, containerboard consumption only increased by 2.2m tons, or 6% y-o-y. Due to the over-supply situation in the industry, the net margin per ton for leading containerboard manufacturers has stayed depressed since Currency movements have been favourable to paper mills Major raw materials used by paper mills include recycled paper and wood pulp. These are mainly procured through the international market in USD. However, the majority of the paper products sold in China are denominated in renminbi, so there is a currency mismatch between sales and raw material cost. The steady appreciation of the renminbi over the past few years has worked in favour of paper mills. Sector drivers Consumption in China According to CNHPIA statistics, in 2010 China tissue consumption per capita was 3.48kg, relatively low compared with developed markets 24kg in the US in 2009 and over 16kg in Germany, the UK and Spain. However, in large cities like Shanghai and Beijing it has been more than 8kg since We think tissue paper consumption in China is on a long-term growth trend, driven by increases in disposable income and greater awareness of personal hygiene. We expect tissue paper consumption to grow at a 7.2% CAGR during , with per-capita consumption reaching 4.25kg by This would place per-capita tissue paper consumption in China at a level similar to the global average. High-end product substitution Consumers in China are migrating from low-end to high-end tissue products, as with many consumer products. According to the CNHPIA, high-end wood pulp based tissue paper production, as a proportion of total production, expanded from 27.3% (1.04m tons) in 2006 to 47.5% (2.49m tons) in

5 Consumption of wood pulp tissue increased at a 24.6% CAGR in , much faster than the 8.8% growth in overall tissue paper consumption in China. Valuation In general, a PE-based valuation methodology is appropriate due to limited visibility on the long-term cash flow during an industry down cycle. We believe investors should focus on short-term metrics, such as PE. To set our target PE multiple, we refer to the historical forward PE trading band of companies under our coverage. 5