Economic and Housing Market Outlook

Transcription

1 Economic and Housing Market Outlook By Lawrence Yun, Ph.D. Chief Economist, National Association of REALTORS Presentations At Raleigh Regional Association of REALTORS At Orange-Chatham Association of REALTORS At Durham Regional Association of REALTORS November 15 and 16, 2016

2 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Lifetime Wealth at near All-Time High

3 Median Household Income (Inflation Adjusted) $59,000 $58,000 $57,000 $56,000 $55,000 $54,000 $53,000 $52,000 $51,000 $50,

4 Annual GDP 10 Below 3% for 11 straight years GDP Annual Growth Rate

5 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q $ billion Sluggish GDP and Gap after Recession ($2.5 trillion gap $7,000 per person) 3% Growth Line Slow 2% Growth Line

6 Sluggish Business Spending Despite High Profit Profits Business Spending 500 0

7 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan , ,000 In thousands Jobs (8 million lost 15 million gained) 140, , , , ,000

8 Non-farm Employment Growth By State

9 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2016 Jobs in Durham-Chapel Hill In thousands

10 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2016 Jobs in Raleigh

11 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2016 Jobs in Greensboro-High Point

12 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2016 Jobs in Rocky Mount

13 Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Feb Sep Apr Nov Jun Jan Aug Mar Oct May Dec Feb Sep Apr Employment Rate: Men vs Women

14 Housing Market Turning?

15 Annual Home Sales New Existing

16 Median and Average Home Price Median Average

17 Dollar Volume Growth Rate %

18 Triangle Area Housing Stats Closings up 10% year-to-date Price up 5% Inventory down 16% Months Supply 3 months

19 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Home Price Index - NC Raleigh Durham-Chapel Hill 100

20 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q2 Home Price Index CO and PA Allentown Denver

21 NAR HOME Survey (March 2015 to September 2016) Do you believe that now is a good time to BUY a home or not? YES 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50%

22 NAR HOME Survey (March 2015 to September 2016) Do you believe that now is a good time to BUY a home or not? NO 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% %

23 REALTOR Buyer Traffic Index (% change from a year ago)

24 Jan Mar May Aug Oct Dec Mar May Jul Sep Dec Feb Apr Jul Sep Nov Jan Apr Jun Aug Nov Jan Mar Jun Aug Oct Jan Mar May Jul Mortgage Purchase Applications (% change from a year ago)

25 Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May 2016 Monthly Mortgage Payment for Buyers

26 Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Nov Jan Mar May Sep Pending Home Sales Index (Seasonally Adjusted)

27 Rent Growth (% change from a year ago)

28 Market Turning? Not Clear, though weakening momentum

29 Do You Ever Want to Own a Home in Future? 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Yes No

30 Homeownership Rate At Near 50-year low Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1

31 Younger Households Less Likely to Own a Home 100% Homeownership Rate 2004 (Peak) 2016 Q2 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Source: Census Bureau 34 and younger 65 and older

32 Wealth Gap Between Young Adults (under-35) and Retiree (65+) $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 Median net worth of households headed by $120,524 $210,500 $230,000 $50,000 $0 $15,260 $10,460 $8, est.

33 Student Loan Q1 NAR-ASA Study implies 5 year Delay (in $billion) Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1 - Q3 - Q1

34 Consumer Price Index over the Long Haul (Rental Income > CPI by 25%) Rent CPI

35 Consumer Price Index over the Long Haul Medical Rent CPI

36 Consumer Price Index over the Long Haul Tuition Medical Rent CPI

37 Social Benefits to Homeownership Higher student test score Lower juvenile delinquency rate Better health outcome and higher self-esteem from having a sense of control in life Increased charitable donations and volunteering Local civic engagement All benefits goes away if foreclosure therefore need sustainable homeownership

38 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Borrowers Not Defaulting (Serious Delinquency Rate) U.S. All Mortgages NC Mortgages Veterans Affairs Mortgages

39 Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr Oct Jan Apr 2016 Distressed Property Sales (% of Total Sales) Short Sale Foreclosure

40 Inventory of Homes per 100 Households Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan

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42 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Single-family Housing Permits and Starts Thousand units Grossly Inadequate

43 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Aug Sep Monthly New Home Sales Thousand units

44 Raleigh Housing Permits

45 Durham-Chapel Hill Housing Permits

46 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2016 Median Price $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 Existing New $100,000

47 If Housing Shortage Persist Then Rent Control Vancouver 15% foreign buyer tax Huey Long Confiscate all second homes

48 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May No CPI Inflation Yet

49 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Fed Policy and Mortgage Rate Mortgage Rate Fed Funds Rate

50 Fed Rate Hike in December 15 Next hike in December 16? then again in

51 Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2016 Federal Revenue and Spending Rolling 12-month total, in $million Spending Revenue

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53 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Federal Debt (Held by Public, excluding intergovernmental obligations)

54 Tom Barrack Real Estate Market is Getting Bubblicious

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56 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q1 Commercial Property Price may be Bubblish Source: Federal Reserve

57 Rising Cap Rates and Commercial Real Estate Prices Steady prices in mid-tier markets Price drops in trophy properties Green Street price index could fall 4% to 8% over the next two years

58 Forecast

59 Normal vs. Now 2000 (Likely Normal) 2016 Existing Home Sales 5.2 million 5.3 million New Home Sales 900, ,000 Population 282 million 324 million Jobs 132 million 145 million Total U.S. Household Wealth $44 trillion $85 trillion

60 Post-College Likely Renters (Age 25 to 29) In thousands

61 Likely First-time Buyers (Age 30 to 39) In thousands

62 Likely Trade-Up Buyers (Age 40 to 49) In thousands

63 Vacation Home Buyers (Age 50 to 59) In thousands

64 Retired - Relocation (Age 60+) In thousands

65 Percentage Living with Mom (2.5 million above Norm)

66 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Multifamily Housing Starts (12 month average; in thousands)

67 Economic Forecast Likely 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast GDP Growth 2.6% 1.5% 2.1% 2.5% Job Growth +2.6 million +2.0 million +2.1 million +2.4 million CPI Inflation 0.3% 1.2% 2.5% 2.5%

68 Housing Forecast Likely 2017 Forecast 2018 Forecast New Home Sales Existing Home Sales Median Price Growth 500, , , , million 5.4 million 5.5 million 5.7 million + 6.8% +4.0% 4.2% 2.5% 30-year Rate 3.9% 3.6% 4.1% 4.5%

69 Normal vs. Now 2000 (Likely Normal) 2015 Existing Home Sales 5.2 million 5.2 million New Home Sales 900, ,000 Population 282 million 320 million Jobs 132 million 144 million Total U.S. Household Wealth $44 trillion $85 trillion

70 Commercial Real Estate Forecast Vacancy Rent Apartment From 4.7% to 5.0% 3.5% per year Office From 13% to 12% 4% per year Industrial Stable at near 9% 4% per year Retail Stable at near 11% 2% per year

71 Trump Presidency Dodd-Frank? Need Construction Workers Community College Training Fannie/Freddie and Mortgage Availability? Tax Simplification? Natural Disaster and Flood Insurance? EPA, land use, development fees?