Intertanko Athens Tanker Event 22nd May 2015

Transcription

1 Intertanko Athens Tanker Event 22nd May 15 1

2 Tanker Supply considerations

3 Fact: There is a 79% correlation between 1 year TC and VLCC contracting 8 kusd/d m dwt VLCC 1 year TC Contracting (right axis) YTD

4 Fact: It has for the past twenty years or so been fine to be invested in VLCC s! 8 kusd/d m dwt VLCC 1 year TC Contracting (right axis) YTD

5 Fact:..the periods of slump have been quite short during those years! 8 kusd/d m dwt VLCC 1 year TC Contracting (right axis) YTD

6 Fact: overcontracting used to be something in the past 8 kusd/d m dwt VLCC 1 year TC Contracting (right axis) YTD

7 Fact: overcontracting used to be something in the past 8 kusd/d m dwt VLCC 1 year TC Contracting (right axis) YTD

8 Fact: overcontracting used to be something in the past 8 kusd/d m dwt VLCC 1 year TC Contracting (right axis) YTD

9 Tanker Market just another slow boat to China?

10 A lesson from the past: 1 mill dwt surplus to get rid of 35 years ago! Demand CAGR Supply CAGR ,43 % -4,68 % ,22 % -,9 % ,3 % 1,57 % ,6 % 1,58 % -5 3,21 % 2,49 % 5-1 2,81 % 4,62 % ,9 % 3,3 %

11 It took 27 years for the fleet to surpass its 198 level! Demand CAGR Supply CAGR ,43 % -4,68 % ,22 % -,9 % ,3 % 1,57 % ,6 % 1,58 % -5 3,21 % 2,49 % 5-1 2,81 % 4,62 % ,9 % 3,3 %

12 .since then it has grown by 5 pct! Demand CAGR Supply CAGR ,43 % -4,68 % ,22 % -,9 % ,3 % 1,57 % ,6 % 1,58 % -5 3,21 % 2,49 % 5-1 2,81 % 4,62 % ,9 % 3,3 %

13 Crude tanker fleet fundamentals

14 Crude tanker fleet growing at 1,3% pa from Crude Tanker Fleet Development 4 M DWT % 3 15% 1% 1 5% % -1-5% - Deliveries Orderbook Scrappings Est scrapping at age 25 y-o-y Growth -1%

15 Crude tanker fleet growing at 1,3% pa from Crude Tanker Fleet Development

16 VLCC contracting vs Earnings and NB price 1 m usd k usd/d No Classic ordering! 8 6 Strategic ordering? jan 12-feb 12-mar 12-apr 12-mai 12-jun 12-jul 12-aug 12-sep 12-okt 12-nov 12-des 13-jan 13-feb 13-mar 13-apr 13-mai 13-jun 13-jul 13-aug 13-sep 13-okt 13-nov 13-des 14-jan 14-feb 14-mar 14-apr 14-mai 14-jun 14-jul 14-aug 14-sep 14-okt 14-nov 14-des 15-jan 15-feb 15-mar 15-apr VLCC contracting (right axis) VLCC NB price (left) VLCC earnings (left)

17 Contracting vs Earnings and OB/fleet-ratio 7 6 No k usd/d Orderbook restraint! 25% % % 3 1% 1 5% 12-jan 12-feb 12-mar 12-apr 12-mai 12-jun 12-jul 12-aug 12-sep 12-okt 12-nov 12-des 13-jan 13-feb 13-mar 13-apr 13-mai 13-jun 13-jul 13-aug 13-sep 13-okt 13-nov 13-des 14-jan 14-feb 14-mar 14-apr 14-mai 14-jun 14-jul 14-aug 14-sep 14-okt 14-nov 14-des 15-jan 15-feb 15-mar 15-apr % VLCC contracting (left) VLCC earnings (left) Orderbook/Fleet (Right)

18 Product tanker fleet fundamentals

19 Product tanker fleet growing at 3,1% per year from 14-18

20 MR contracting vs Earnings and NB price 4 35 m usd k usd/d -Prices on the rise/earnings falling.but ordering continues!! No jan 12-feb 12-mar 12-apr 12-mai 12-jun 12-jul 12-aug 12-sep 12-okt 12-nov 12-des 13-jan 13-feb 13-mar 13-apr 13-mai 13-jun 13-jul 13-aug 13-sep 13-okt 13-nov 13-des 14-jan 14-feb 14-mar 14-apr 14-mai 14-jun 14-jul 14-aug 14-sep 14-okt 14-nov 14-des 15-jan 15-feb 15-mar 15-apr MR contracting (right axis) MR NB price (left) MR Earnings

21 Contracting vs Earnings and OB/fleet-ratio 45 4 No k usd/d Complete cut-off in ordering despite rising earnings! 25% 35 % % 15 1% 1 5% 5 12-jan 12-feb 12-mar 12-apr 12-mai 12-jun 12-jul 12-aug 12-sep 12-okt 12-nov 12-des 13-jan 13-feb 13-mar 13-apr 13-mai 13-jun 13-jul 13-aug 13-sep 13-okt 13-nov 13-des 14-jan 14-feb 14-mar 14-apr 14-mai 14-jun 14-jul 14-aug 14-sep 14-okt 14-nov 14-des 15-jan 15-feb 15-mar 15-apr MR contracting (left) MR Earnings (left) Total Product Orderbook/Fleet (Right) %

22 Final Fact: There will never, ever be a permanent shortage of shipbuilders!

23 That s it!

24 Grieg Shipbrokers are actively servicing clients on all continents We aim to consistently execute our clients business in a professional manner : Creating long-term relationships Following transactions from start to finish, supporting our clients in strategic decisions In each case we have the same overriding objective: to ensure clients maximise the return on their deal We deliver insightful, innovative and practical solutions We work with clients to get things done In this complex industry where information is growing exponentially and travelling faster every day, our mission is to be at the cutting edge of the market and to carefully interpret and evaluate the generated information and provide valuable advice to our many clients

25 Please contact us for a fresh perspective, commercial and industry insight Managing Director Finn Engelsen P: E: Finn.engelsen@grieg.no Sales & Purchase Erik Grepne P: E: griegsale@grieg.no Research Department Anders Karlsen P: E: jgresearch@grieg.no Dry Star Jørn Brunvall P: E: grico@grieg.no Dry Cargo Cato Johan Stangnes P: E: grico@grieg.no Tank Department Glenn Ronesen P: E: jgtank@grieg.no Gas Department Thor Erik Lie P: E: jggas@grieg.no