CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
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1 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
2 Connecting high quality analytics with commercial decision making Commercial Advice Consulting Market Insights Multiclient Products Retainer Agreements NGLS Expertise LPG Ethane Olefins and their feedstocks Global petchem gases trade Training/Workshops CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 2
3 Disclaimer IT SHALL BE KNOWN AS NGLSTRATEGY, LLC NGLS. THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR GENERAL INFORMATION PURPOSES ONLY. IT SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AS PROFESSIONAL ADVICE ON THE MERITS OF THE SUBJECT MATTER OF THIS PRESENTATION. IF NECESSARY, PROFESSIONAL ADVICE SHOULD BE OBTAINED FROM A PRACTITIONER WITH EXPERTISE IN THE FIELD OF THIS SUBJECT MATTER. NGLS MAKES NO REPRESENTATIONS, OR WARRANTIES, OF ANY KIND WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR SUITABILITY FOR ANY PURPOSE OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS PRESENTATION. NGLS EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE REGARDING THE MATERIALS AND THIS PRESENTATION. THESE SLIDES MAKING UP THIS PRESENTATION ARE THE INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY OF NGLS AND ARE PROTECTED BY THE COPYRIGHT LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA AND OTHER COUNTRIES. USE OF THESE SLIDES ARE STRICTLY PROHIBITED WITHOUT EXPRESS PERMISSION OF NGLS. NGLStrategy, LLC Copyright 217 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 3
4 LPG: One Product, Two Different Stories (Propane vs Butane) LPG Demand: Petchems Influence LPG Pricing Linked More to Other Products Economics Retail Market: Present & Potential CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Sep-17 4
5 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
6 Global Influences A.G. Influences N. America Influences N. Europe Influences Far East Influences CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 6
7 Global Influences A.G. Influences N. America Influences N. Europe Influences Far East Influences CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 7
8 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
9 West of Suez East of Suez 3 3 Incremental Propane Production since Incremental Butane Production since CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 9
10 West of Suez 3 East of Suez 35 Incremental Propane Demand since 21 Incremental Butane Demand since CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 1
11 West of Suez East of Suez 3 Import / Export Seaborne Trade Balance Per Region Propane Import / Export Seaborne Trade Balance Per Region Butane CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
12 West of Suez East of Suez 3 Import / Export Seaborne Trade Balance Per Region Propane Import / Export Seaborne Trade Balance Per Region Butane CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
13 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
14 Cumulative Increase % Retail vs Petchem Demand Cumulative Increase (%) % 1 4% % Retail Petchem Retail Petchem CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
15 Propane Petchem Demand East Propane Petchem Demand West PDH - seaborne imports PDH - local source PDH much more significant in East PDH - seaborne imports PDH - local sources Cracking - seaborne imports Cracking - seaborne imports Seaborne imports for cracking more significant in West Cracking - local source Cracking - local sources Globally, PDH demand up, cracking demand down CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
16 Butane Demand in Petchems & Refinery Applications 2 West of Suez Cracking demand & PO/ETBE/TBA dominates 1 East of Suez gasoline components more significant than cracking demand West East Steam Cracking nbdh MA/BDO PO/TBA/ETBE ibdh/mtbe Alkylation Aromatics Globally gasoline component demand up cracking demand down CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
17 Mont Belvieu especially complex Cracking more influential in West PDH influence greater East, but occasional CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
18 % of vol vs Crude % of vol vs Crude Propane Butane 8% 1% 7% 9% 6% 8% 7% 5% 6% 4% 5% 3% 4% 2% Mt. Belvieu (Propane)/WTI 3% 2% Mt. Belvieu (Butane)/WTI 1% % CFR N. Europe (Propane)/Brent CFR Far East (Propane)/Brent % % CFR N. Europe (Butane)/Brent CFR Far East (Butane)/Brent CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
19 $/t Domestic Supply/Demand Dynamics 1,2 M. Belvieu Price Determinants Inventory Levels/Changes Export Cancellations 6 Trading Decisions Terminalling fees Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 External Events MB Propane Cracking Value Fuel Value Far East Netback (based on long-term contracts) Retail Estimate vs WTI PDH Value N.Europe Netback (based on long-term contracts) CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
20 Oct $/t $/t Cracker Incremental Cash Margins Advantage N. Europe Cracker Incremental Cash Margins Advantage Far East 6 1 LPG Cracking NW Europe 6 1 LPG Cracking Far East LPG Advantage Naphtha Advantage Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17-6 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Naphtha vs Propane Advantage Naphtha vs Butane Advantage Naphtha vs Propane Advantage Naphtha vs Butane Advantage CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct-217 2
21 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 $/t Far East Propylene Price versus Costs 1,2 MTP Uneconomic 1.7 Key variables: 1, 8 PDH Uneconomic Methanol price Propane price Ethylene price High PDH plant operating rates favoured by: High Methanol price (MTP uneconomic).5 High Ethylene price (metathesis uneconomic) Low propane prices Propylene price PDH Metathesis MTP P/E ratio CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
22 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
23 Actual vs Theoretical Retail Demand Growth in Some Key Countries Price Changes Government Intervention High Potential Limited Growth Population Growth: Theoretical growth based on population growth and stable consumption per capita (basis 212) Thailand Indonesia Turkey Nigeria Actual Theoretical Kg/Capita Growth Theoretical Population Growth Kg/Capita Growth: Theoretical growth based on per capita assumptions according to market potential (basis 212) CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
24 General Factors Market Factors Weather Population GDP/Inflation Price Elasticity Consumption per Capita Stable to Decreasing Stable to Decreasing Some Growth Stable to Decreasing Government intervention Competition with other products Anticipating Changes Infrastructure Funding Availability Retail Growth West High Growth Marketing/Penetration Retail Growth East 2 Some Growth High Potential CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
25 CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E
26 Period of Change Maturity Production Dynamics Stabilization Gas Related Production Shale Gas/Tight Oil Trading Patterns Contractual Changes Competition / Margins Finding Market Balance Change of Trading Structure Adjustment of the Demand Dynamics Increase of Large Bulk Demand Slower increase in Retail Demand Government/Market Reaction New Demand Creation Competition with other Fuels Change of Market Structure Rebalancing of Pricing Mechanisms Large Price Fluctuations New Price Dynamics (i.e. US) Opportunities Creation CMT 12th LPG Trade Summit Oct, Dubai, U A E Oct
27
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