3 rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs. London, December 8, 2011
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1 3 rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
2 Outline Net sales: Sustained firm growth Markets: Slowing momentum Reporting segments: Varying growth Guidance: Vigilance and measured optimism 2015 Manufacturing: A strategic advantage for the Company Investment strategy: Geared towards growth opportunities 2 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
3 Nine-month Net sales: Sustained firm growth 3 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
4 Nine-month Net Sales up 17.3% to 15,246 million Sales volumes up 9.3% Markets expanding, despite slower momentum in the third quarter Solid performance by the MICHELIN brand Pricing policy added 10.0% to nine-month sales growth and, as announced, will offset the full-year impact of the raw materials headwind 4 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
5 Tangible Growth in Sales Volumes Efficient Pricing Policy YoY Change in Millions and as a % of Net Sales + 1, ,209 Price-mix Currency -2.4% 15,246 12,997 Volumes* +9.3% +10.0% (o/w mix: - 15 m) +17.3% 9 months 2010 Net sales 9 months 2011 Net sales * Volumes in tonnes 5 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
6 A Sharply Rising Price Effect % Change YoY Volumes* Price-Mix Currency Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q * Volumes in tonnes 6 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
7 Robust Volume Growth off of High Prior-year Comparatives Tonnage (Base 100 = Q1 2010) Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
8 Robust Financial Structure: Flexibility and Room to Manoeuver Gearing Net Debt / Equity Ratio 86% 70% 80% 84% 75% 55% 53% 20% 27% June Dec June Dec June Dec June Dec June rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
9 Markets: Slowing momentum 9 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
10 Car and Light Truck Tires: Sustained Growth, Strong OE except Japan Markets at Sept. 30, 2011 (change in number of tires) +12% +8% +8% +6% +6% +7% +9% +6% +3% +4% -0% -1% Europe with CIS North America Asia excl. India South America Africa India Middle-East Total Original Equipment Replacement 10 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
11 OE Car and Light Truck Markets: Cloudy Economic Outlook had Little Impact in Q3 OE Car & Light Truck Markets 2011 / 2010 (change in number of tires) 15% 10% 7% 6% 8% 11% 9% 6% 6% 7% 8% 3% 6% 10% 9% 5% 6% 4% 1% -1% -1% -1% -1% -8% Europe with CIS North America Asia excl. India South America Africa India Middle-East Total Q1 Q2 Q3 9 months 11 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
12 Replacement Car and Light Truck Markets: a Return to Long-term Trends Replacement Car & Light Truck Markets 2011 / 2010 (change in number of tires) 14% 12% 7% 6% 8% 7% 9% 12% 9% 11% 5% 7% 10% 5% 4% 6% 4% 3% 3% 3% 0% -2% -4% Europe with CIS North America Asia excl. India South America Africa India Middle-East Total Q1 Q2 Q3 9 months 12 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
13 October PCLT Tire Markets: North American Reflecting Miles Driven Markets at Oct. 31, 2011 (change in number of tires) 13 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
14 US Vehicle Miles Driven Eroding US Miles Driven (rolling 3 months) Sept Sept 2011: -2% Source: US department of transportation / Federal Highway Administration 14 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
15 Truck Tires: Sharp Rebound in OE Sales Radial Truck Market as at September 30, 2011 / 2010 (change in number of tires) +114% +48% +60% +10% +10% +5% +20% +11% +11% +17% + 8% - 8% Europe with CIS North America Asia excl. India South America Africa India Middle-East Total Original Equipment Replacement 15 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
16 OE Truck Markets: Still Strong Rebound in Mature Markets OE Radial Truck Market 2011 / 2010 (change in number of tires) 115% 114% 80% 46% 48% 66% 53% 60% 27% 0% 22% 18% 20% 25% 19% 17% 10% Europe with CIS North America -1% -8% -20% Asia excl. India South America Africa India Middle-East Total Q1 Q2 Q3 9 months 16 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
17 Replacement Truck Markets: Inventory Drawdowns in Q3, especially in Europe Replacement Radial Truck Market 2011 / 2010 (change in number of tires) 26% 25% 20% 20% 16% 10% 10% 5% 3% 10% 3%3% 5% 13% 11% 11% 7% 3% 8% -2% -0% Europe with CIS North America Asia excl. India South America Africa India Middle-East Total Q1 Q2 Q3 9 months 17 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
18 October Truck Markets: Slowdown in Replacement Markets at Oct. 31, 2011 (change in number of tires) 18 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
19 Freight Kilometers Driven in Germany at 2010 Levels German Freight (rolling 3 months) 2,500,000 2,400,000 Oct Oct. 2011: +2.4% 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1,900,000 1,800, Source: Bundesamt für Güterverkehr 19 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
20 US Freight Tonnage: Still Moving Back up to Pre-recession Levels US Freight (rolling 3 months) Sept Sept. 2011: +5.1% Source: ATA American Trucking Associations 20 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
21 Reporting segments: Varying growth 21 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
22 Passenger Car and Light Truck Tires: Robust Growth % change in net sales (in millions) Tonnages up 5.6% 9 months months 2011 % Change Winter tire sell-in at record highs Successful launch of the MICHELIN Energy XM2, especially designed for the new markets Successful launch of the MICHELIN Pilot Super Sport 7,136 7, % Powerful price dynamic Full use of production capacity 22 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
23 Truck Tires: Growth Dampened by the Uncertain Economic Outlook 9 months 2010 % change in net sales (in millions) 9 months 2011 % Change Tonnages up 10.5% New MICHELIN X Works TM productservices solution Sustained success of the MICHELIN X One 4,096 4, % Price increases 23 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
24 Specialty Tires: Strong Growth % change in net sales (in millions) Tonnages up 24.1% 9 months months 2011 % Change Fast rebound in demand High capacity utilization 1,765 2, % Favorable impact from price indexing clauses 24 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
25 Guidance: Vigilance and measured optimism 25 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
26 2011 Guidance Markets in Q Passenger Car and Light Truck Tires: - Europe replacement demand will depend on winter tire sell-out - New markets demand still trending upwards Truck Tires: uncertain outlook, particularly in Europe Specialty Tires: very buoyant Growth in sales volumes trending towards 8% by year end Barring any significant worsening of the current economic environment Price increases to fully offset raw materials headwind Free cash flow temporarily negative in 2011 Increase in operating income 26 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
27 2015 Manufacturing: A strategic advantage for the Company 27 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
28 Optimizing Production Costs Focus maintained on productivity Productivity gains since 2006 (Base 100 in 2006) / 2010: continuous progress + industrial footprint 2011 / 2015: continuous progress + growth Production Tons per employee 28 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
29 New Improvement Levers: Maximized Use of Existing Assets Maximum theoretical capacity (CMT): No shutdowns, no scrapping, no breakdowns during the year. Maximum available capacity (CMA): Actual annual capacity. Objective for 2015: increase by 10% CMA/CMT ratio for existing assets. This means more than 300 KT of new production capacity with existing assets. Levers: Open days Scrapping Breakdowns Bottleneck management Debottlenecking Tires/Month Months CMT CMA 29 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
30 New Improvement Levers: Flexibility Ability to produce exactly what s needed. Some tires are produced continuously. Others are produced in campaigns (e.g.: twice a year), due to a lack of manufacturing flexibility. This results in a need for campaign inventories. Objective for 2015: Production Reduce the need for campaign inventories by 50% (i.e ~ 300M working capital at iso portfolio) Campaign inventories Commercial inventories Inventory trends with campaign production 30 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
31 New Improvement Levers: Flexibility The overall stakes of manufacturing flexibility Improved flexibility Reduced campaign inventories Lower mold requirements Improved market coverage Improved customer satisfaction ratio Reduced working capital requirement Reduced Capex Increased sales 31 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
32 Investment strategy: Geared towards growth opportunities 32 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
33 Confirmed Growth Outlook for Tires Passenger Car and Light Truck Tire Markets (in millions of tires) 1,100 1, * +25% 1, * +20% 1, , * Of which 70% in new markets Mature markets New markets Michelin estimates 33 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
34 Confirmed Growth Outlook for Tires Radial Truck Tire Markets (in millions of tires) * * * Of which 60% in new markets Mature markets New markets Michelin estimates 34 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
35 Mining Tires: Structural Upward Trend in Demand Large mining tires (market supply and demand) Source: Source: BHP BHP Billiton Biliton Accord BHP en attente Primary supplier radial capacity Market Demand 35 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
36 Almost 6bn Capital Expense in Capacity Expansion by 2016 Annual Investments, in million 1,700 M ~1,900M 1,150 1,100 1,200-1, Avg Capacity Routine Capex (Maintenance, Molds, IT, R&D, Logistics, Distribution) 36 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
37 Capacity Expansion Aligned with Potential Market Growth Capacity Investment by Type and Region Additional capacity: 150KT per year 30% 18% New markets: 70% Michelin brand: organic growth 52% Mature Market Brownfields New Market Greenfields New Market Brownfields 37 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
38 Capacity Expansion: Michelin is Consistent with its Business Model Example: Capacity Expansion in China Cost of investment RT price positioning Assumptions Michelin brand Competitor Competitor Cost: $1,350m 10m car tires, 1.8m truck tires, 295,000 retread $6.36/kg Cost: $253m 4m car tires $6.33/kg Cost: $954m 10.5m car tires, 1m truck tires $5.78/kg Sources: Company information, Michelin estimates Tire weight assumption - Car = 10kg/ tire, Truck = 60kg/tire, Retread = 15kg/tire 38 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
39 Successful Private Placement of Michelin Stake in Hankook Portfolio optimization in line with the Group Strategy Benefit from the operation: Improved liquidity Accelerate industrial strategy in high-growth markets, in particular by optimizing and strengthening plants dedicated to the production of Tier 2 and Tier 3 products in the PCLT and Truck tire markets Gross proceeds: est. 405M Capital Gain: est. 250M 39 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
40 Tier 3 Presence: a Necessary Move for Global Leadership T1 + strategy T3 stand-alone strategy T1 T2 T3 Key: flagship brand Business pulled by T1 brand equity Bundled offering Strong sales force retailer place High price realization T3 Specific offering Distribution logistics done by wholesalers No support at the point of sale Lower price realization Wholesalers Partner Retailers - Dealers Retailers Dealers Tier 3 worldwide segment - share and growth 38% +26% 33% rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
41 Contacts Investor Relations Valérie Magloire Alban de Saint Martin +33 (0) , cours de l île Seguin Boulogne-Billancourt - France investor-relations@fr.michelin.com Internet rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
42 Disclaimer This presentation is not an offer to purchase or a solicitation to recommend the purchase of Michelin shares. To obtain more detailed information on Michelin, please consult the documentation published in France by Autorité des Markets financiers available from the website. This presentation may contain a number of forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions at the time of the publication of this document, they are by nature subject to risks and contingencies liable to translate into a difference between actual data and the forecasts made or induced by these statements. 42 3rd Annual Global Automotive Conference Goldman Sachs London, December 8, 2011
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