Clara Y. Yatini National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) Indonesia

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1 Clara Y. Yatini National Institute of Aeronautics and Space (LAPAN) Indonesia

2 Introduction Goals and Strategy Research Observation Education and Public Outreach

3 Scope Relevance to the Nation

4 Space Weather Refers to condition on the Sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and groundbased technological system Changes in the radiative output from the Sun directly affect the state of the upper atmosphere and ionosphere through the excitation and ionization of atoms and molecules The solar wind moves outward from the Sun and impinges on Earth. Substorms are relatively short-lived magnetosphere response to aolar wind. Geomagnetic storms are sustained, long-lived response to a prolonged period of solar wind flow Most magnetospheric processes are manifested in some way by changes in the properties of ionosphere and thermosphere (electrical currents, auroral emission, scintillation, etc.)

5 Radio Communication HF radio wave communication is still used in isolated area, search and rescue efforts, and military operations Navigation system GPS uses radio waves to calculate location accurately. Errors in positioning can result when signals is influenced by ionospheric condition which is affected by space weather. Satellite system As a new developer of satellite Geomagnetic survey and mapping Power system? In progress to understand such impact in low latitude region

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7 Capabilities in analyzing space weather and its impact Forecasting and warning of space weather and its impact Information services

8 Research and modelling Observation Forecasting Education

9 Solar Activity Space Environment Geo and Space Magnetism Ionosphere (including satellite and terrestrial communication)

10 PROGRAMME INTEGRATION Solar system Dynamics SPACE ENVIRONMENT Satellite perturbation Information on space debris SOLAR ACTIVITY RESEARCH Solar activity prediction Prediction of the impact of solar activity, etc RESEARCH ON REGIONAL MAGNETIC FIELD RESEARCH ON REGIONAL IONOSPHERE RESEARCH ON EQUATORIAL UPPER ATMOSFER Information on terrestrial magnetic activity Communication frequency prediction Ionospheric correction for position determination Information on communication disturbance Information on global atmospheric circulation Information on prediction of global atmospheric change

11 Solar activity prediction and the identification of the nature and mechanisms of flares, CMEs, etc. Solar Flare prediction based on: - sunspot number - area - magnetic class - position on solar hemisphere to predict the occurence of solar flare (C, M, and X class) in percentage, with accuracy ±75% Preliminary model and the prediction of the impact of solar activity to the Earth (Sun-Earth connection), including the impact on ionosphere, geomagnetic field and climate parameters

12 Latitude CME/flare position major geomagnetic storm Longitude

13 Optical Sunspot and flare observation Radio Solar radio bursts

14 SOLAR RADIO SPECTROGRAPH - SN 4000 RADIO SPECTRUM : 18 MHz 1.8 GHz OPERATING NOW: 56 MHz 1.8 GHz

15 Solar Radio Burst; - velocity from solar spectra - precursor of geomagnetic storm, travel time Type II Radio Burst on June 13, 2010 V = 700 km/s

16 FLUKS X RAY (x10-7w/m2) Type III radio burst Shows the movement of energetic electron after flare Type III solar radio burst, Feb 12, :00 7:05 7:10 7:15 7:20 7:25 7:30 7:35 7:40 7:45 7:50 PUKUL (UT) X-ray flux

17 Satellite s anomaly due to energetic particles Satelit FUSE (1) (25 November 2001) Distribution of electron E> 30 kev Distribution of proton: 80 < E < 240 kev (N. Ahmad, et al)

18 Indeks Kp*10 Indeks Kp*10 Satellite s anomaly due to geomagnetic activity Aktivitas Geomagnet Tahun GFO Galaxy 4 GOES Waktu (Jam) Gambar 3-7 : Kejadian anomali beberapa satelit tahun 1998 Aktivitas Geomagnet Tahun 2000 IMAGE Galaxy Waktu (Jam) % of satellite anomalies related with geomagnetic storm Gambar 3-9 : Kejadian anomali beberapa satelit tahun 2000 (N. Ahmad, et al)

19 Most anomalies are caused by space weather through the interaction of high energetic particles on satellite system and the effects of geomagnetic activity especially when the storm events. SIAS: As a tool of early warning system for satellite operation by using - energy and flux of energetic proton and electron - Kp indices

20 Gambar 3-6 : Tampilan sub menu utama A (parameter cuaca antariksa) (N. Ahmad, et al) Gambar 3-7 : Tampilan sub menu indeks Kp

21 Sejak 1 jam yang lalu hingga 1 jam ke depan sebanyak 1 benda antariksa melintasi Indonesia dengan ketinggian kurang dari 200 km. Pada umumnya suatu benda dikatakan jatuh jika ketinggiannya mencapai 122 km. Last update: :06:51 WIB

22 Research on magnetic pulses as the precursor of geomagnetic storm/substorm Modelling on variation of diurnal regional magnetic disturbances Study on earthquake precursor using some methods (WTMM, Flicker Noise Spectroscopy, Polarization, Box Counting, etc) Study of the relation of geomagnetic storm with Geomagnetic Induced Current (GIC)

23 - Identification of magnetic pulse, characteristics and occurence - Real time monitoring of magnetic storm and magnetospheric substorm using ground-based magnetometer - To predict the occurence of geomagnetic storm/substorm

24 Solar wind and pc3 pc3 pc5 Pi2 extraction

25 Modelling on variation of diurnal regional magnetic disturbances Daily variation of geomagnetic H component observed from Manado observatory on 1 5 August (left) with the quiet day plot, and the geomagnetic disturbance (right). The arrow in right figure shows the start time of the disturbance (M. Ruhimat et al)

26 STUDY ON EARTHQUAKE PRECURSOR Using some methods: polarization, transfer function, fractal before the Nias (mar 28, 2005) and Aceh (December 26, 2004) earthquakes Some anomalies are appeared before the Aceh earthquake on Dec 26, 2004 by analyzing the ULF signal (S. Saroso, et al)

27 FLUXGATE MAGNETOMETER LOCATION : BIAK PONTIANAK TANJUNGSARI KOTOTABANG PARE-PARE KUPANG MENADO -COLLABORATION with Kyushu univ (MAGDAS) and Nagoya univ. RESOLUTION 1 SEC NEAR REAL TIME OBJECT OBSERVATION Magnetic field component : D, H, Z Pi 2, Pi 3 Pc 3, Pc 4, Pc 5

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29 Regional Ionospheric Research: Ionospheric dynamics and its impact to - Terrestrial communication - Satelitte comunication - Navigation; satellite-based position determination

30 1. Models to predict the condition of the ionosphere 2. Software for predicting the condition of ionosphere. 3. Information for mitigation of ionospheric dynamics Ionosphere: T indices, E/F/Es layers, spread F, TEC, scintillation, mapping, radio communication (frequency, fading, etc),

31 IPS -5, Pameungpeuk, Menado IPS 71,Sumedang CADI, Biak, Pontianak FMCW (NICT, Japan), Kototabang

32 Hasil runing model GISM Hasil plot Model Indek sintilasi S4 Hasil plot Model TEC

33 OBSERVATION AND STUDY OF EQUATORIAL MIDDLE AND UPPER ATMOSPHERE ANTENNA MF RADAR SPD PONTIANAK ANTENNA EAR SPD KOTOTABANG Airglow observations at Kototabang Observations of middle and upper Atmosphere dynamics at Pontianak dan Kototabang

34 INSTRUMENTATION NETWORK SOLAR, SPACE DYNAMICS, DAN ATMOSPHERE OBSERVATION KOTOTABANG: EAR, Cuaca, RASound, MWR, Airglow, Ceilometer, ComSys, AWS, ORG, IOnosonda Rencana : ISM, TECmeter, Magnetometer, Ionosonda, VHF RadarSystem, Kom Data, MANADO : Ionosonda, TEC Rencana : Magnetometer, Kom. Dat, ISM, BIAK: Ionosonda, Magnetometer, WPR, BLR, Medac Rencana: Ozon, Ion Oblique, Track Satelit, ISM, TANJUNGSARI : Teleskop, Ionosonda, Radio Spektrograf, TEC meter, AWS, Airglow Monitor Rencana : H-alpha, Ionsonda Oblique, Sistem Komdat ISM, F.P. Interfer. PAMEUNGPEUK: Ionosonda, Meteo, MF Radar Rencana : Magnetometer, Alat Uji Kom, Sistem Komdata, Teleskop Optik, MWR, WATUKOSEK: BREWER Spectr, Ozon, Meteo,Telescope Matahari Rencana : Magnetometer, Alat uji kom, Komdat, KUPANG : Ionosonda, AWS, Magnetometer, Rencana : KomDat, TEC, Ion Oblique

35 Observation and Information of Space Weather. Needs: - Real time solar data - Real time space-based solar and interplanetary data - Knowledge in predicting the solar activity - Knowledge in predicting the space weather and its impact Collaboration between researchers, and technical training (Sun and Sun-Earth connection)

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37 INFORMATION AND SERVICES WEBSITE : SOLAR ACTIVITY ( SUNSPOT, FLARE) IONOSPHERIC PARAMETERS ( FoF2, HF2, etc) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY (Pi, Pc) METEORITES AND SPACE DEBRIS FREQUENCY PREDICTION FOR RADIO COMMUNICATION RADIO FREQUENCY COMMUNICATION PREDICTION: ROUTINE : QUARTERLY PREDICTION : -- REGIONAL GOVERNMENT (REGENCY etc) MONTHLY PREDICTION : MILITARY, POLICE Public Outreach: Space Weather Seminar, Public Speaking, Training, Bulletin (Quarterly), Open House, Stargazing

38 FREKUENSI (MHz) Application and Dissemination 1. Information service for prediction of communication frequency LUF OWF MUF WAKTU (WIB) 2. Information of real time ionogram. Monitoring Ionogram Real Time (MIRT) system Automatic Position Reporting System (APRS). Information of real time canal evaluation.

39 3. Training on Radio Frequency Management and Radio Communication Technique

40 4. Technical Assistance. Jayapura, September 2010 Tingkat Kabupaten Kupang Juli 2011

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42 Space Mindedness

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44 Dissemination

45 ISWI and MAGDAS School 2012 Bandung September 2012 Organizers: - NASA - Space Environment Research Center (SERC) - National Institute of Aeronautics and Space of Indonesia (LAPAN)

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