D. Odstrcil George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA and NASA/GSFC M/C 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA

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1 Different Techniques for for (and Measurement Some Success of BzIn) Measurement of Bs B.V. Jackson H.-S. Yu, P.P. Hick, A. Buffington, Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences, University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA M. Tokumaru, Ken ichi Fujiki Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya , Japan D. Odstrcil George Mason University, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA 22030, USA and NASA/GSFC M/C 674, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA M.M. Bisi RAL Space, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Harwell Campus, Oxfordshire, UK J. Kim, J Yun Korean Space Weather Center, National Radio Research Agency, 198-6, Gwideok-ro, Hallim-eup, Jeju-si, Jeju-do, South Korea Masayoshi

2 Different Techniques for Measurement of Bs Bz Introduction: Bs: Definition Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) Bz: The reasons to determine Bz Concept studies: How we may be able to determine Bz 1) In CMEs. 2) In the background solar wind Some successes in determining Bz

3 Different Techniques for Measurement of Bs Bz Introduction: Bs: Definition Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) Bz: The reasons to determine Bz Concept studies: How we may be able to determine Bz 1) In CMEs. 2) In the background solar wind Some successes in determining Bz

4 Different Techniques for Measurement of Bs Bz Introduction: Bs: Definition Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) Bz: The reasons to determine Bz Concept studies: How we may be able to determine Bz 1) In CMEs. 2) In the background solar wind Some successes in determining Bz

5 Why Determine Bz? Geomagnetic Substorm Activity A brief (2-3 hour) disturbance in Earth s magnetosphere that releases energy from the tail of the magnetosphere causing particles to be injected into the high latitude ionosphere. Geomagnetic Storm Activity A series of substorms, or a strong or prolonged enhancement of the global magnetospheric electric field. Both cause radio communication difficulties, particle precipitation into the ionosphere, aurora, satellite damage, ground-based currents, etc., A southward IMF is a common factor in the occurrence of both storms and substorms.

6 Generally the largest storms and substorms are associated with CMEs Two factors in CMEs are important. 1) Southward Bz. 2) Dynamic pressure caused by high speed wind.

7 CMEs Fm N. Gopalswamy

8 Fm N. Gopalswamy CMEs

9 Fm N. Gopalswamy CMEs

10 Fm N. Gopalswamy CMEs

11 Fm N. Gopalswamy CMEs

12 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

13 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

14 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

15 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

16 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

17 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

18 Fm Ward (Chip) Manchester CMEs

19 M. L. Mays & A. Taktakishvili CMEs

20 M. L. Mays & A. Taktakishvili CMEs

21 M. L. Mays & A. Taktakishvili CMEs Timing and Field Amplitude sometimes good (state of the art)

22 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs

23 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs Simulated CME Events

24 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs CME Event Boundary Conditions

25 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs CME Event Boundary Conditions

26 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs CME Event Boundary Changes

27 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs CME Cone vs Spheromak

28 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs CME Cone vs Spheromak density Cone Spheromak Cone Spheromak

29 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs Density

30 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs Velocity

31 Fm Dusan Odstrcil CMEs Magnetic Field B θ

32 Heliospheric Remote Sensing IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab) ISEE IPS array near Mt. Fuji ISEE IPS array systems

33 Heliospheric Remote Sensing IPS Heliospheric Analyses ISEE (STELab) IPS line-of-sight response ISEE IPS array systems

34 Heliospheric Remote Sensing IPS line-of-sight response Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction. ISEE IPS Sample outward motion over time

35 Heliospheric Remote Sensing Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, or UCSD Prediction Analyses UCSD Web pages Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

36 Density Heliospheric Remote Sensing UCSD Prediction ( Today s 21 UT Analysis from ISEE Density (n/cm 3 ) Radial Magnetic Field (nt) Web analysis runs Masayoshi automatically using Linux on a P.C.

37 Heliospheric Remote Sensing 2017/09/17 11:47 UT Backside halo CME sequence

38 More Details Magnetic Field

39 Heliospheric Remote Sensing (Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.) CSSS model Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: Source surface B r field component sample 1. Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field using photospheric measurements and a horizontal current model. 2. Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region. 3. Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.

40 Heliospheric Remote Sensing

41 (Jackson, B.V., et al., 2015, ApJL, 803:L1. 1-5, doi: / /803/1/l1.) CSSS model Closed field Extrapolated B n closed B rt field field component for CR for 2056 CR 2056 About 1/50 th of the static flux r fall-off

42 Heliospheric Remote Sensing Φ = λ 2 n e B ds v 3-D reconstructions of Carrington rotation (CR) 2121 showing a CME of interest from 07 March 2012 launched around 01:00UT.

43 Heliospheric Remote Sensing Φ = λ 2 n e B ds v The same period extracted from CR2121 comparing IPS g-level fisheye sky map (left) with that of reconstructed RM from ambient magnetic fields (right) perturbed by the CME.

44 Oberoi and Lonsdale, 2012, Radio Science, 47, RS0K08, doi: /2012rs Faraday rotation signals at low frequency Φ = λ 2 n e B ds Heliospheric Remote Sensing From Oberoi and Lonsdale Heliospheric Signal

45 현재이이미지를표시할수없습니다. 현재이이미지를표시할수없습니다. Fm Mario Bisi Heliospheric Remote Sensing High-Band Tiles 110 to ~250 MHz. LOFAR Low-Band Dipoles ~10 to 90 MHz RAL Space

46 Fm Mario Bisi 2017 RAL Space Heliospheric FR Observation s

47 2017 RAL Space Heliospheric Remote Sensing Fm Mario Bisi Heliospheric FR Observations (3) Using simple dimensional-analysis calculations: RM = x ne[cm -3 ] x B[nT] x L[AU] m -2, where L is the contributing integration length along the LOS, we get a maximum expected RM value: RM = x 669 x 150 x 0.25 = 50.2 m -2 (or rad m -2 ); perhaps high but is very much in line with the LOFAR preliminary heliospheric RM values.

48 Interstellar Medium Variations Fm Richard Fallows Observed RM (red) and ionospheric contribution (blue) Plot courtesy Charlotte Sobey, CSIRO Heliospheric Remote Sensing Raw rotation measures (red) plus estimated ionospheric contributions (blue) After subtraction of ionosphere 800 days Day of interest Ionospheric contribution estimated using Total Electron Content (TEC) maps produced from GPS satellite data.

49 Fm Richard Fallows Heliospheric Remote Sensing RM Calculations Current Estimates Measured RM (ISM subtracted) Calculated Ionospheric RM RM difference Modelling and number checking efforts underway indicate that the resulting difference in RM, assumed to be due to the heliosphere, is in the ballpark for that expected from the passage of this CME.

50 In the meantime Choi et al., JGR, 122, 4921, doi: /2016JA for substorms of weak to medium even the weakly (in terms of either intensity or duration) southward IMF Bz should be considered significant Magnetic Field Russell - McPherron Effect Daily Implementation

51 GSM RTN coordinates (Russell, C. T., and McPherron, R. L., 1973, J. Geophys. Res., 78 (1), 92.) Sun

52 GSM RTN coordinates (Russell, C. T., and McPherron, R. L., 1973, J. Geophys. Res., 78 (1), 92.) Sun

53 (see: UCSD Prediction Analyses Last March Analyses from ISEE: Day -4 Bz (GSM) Four Days In Future From here Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

54 (see: UCSD Prediction Analyses Last March Analyses from ISEE: Day -3 Bz (GSM) Three Days In Future From here Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

55 (see: UCSD Prediction Analyses Last March Analyses from ISEE: Day -2 Two Days In Future Bz (GSM) From here Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

56 (see: UCSD Prediction Analyses Last March Analyses from ISEE: Day -1 One Day In Future Bz (GSM) From here Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

57 (see: UCSD Prediction Analyses Last March Analyses from ISEE: Day -1 No Days In Future Bz (GSM) Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

58 (see: UCSD Predictions Magnetic Field Analysis No Days In Future NOAA Bz (GSM) Kp Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.

59 ACE and IPS-derived Bz Pearson s R Correlation per Carrington Rotation in GSM Coordinates over Ten Years Positive Correlations (over 10 years)

60 (Russell, C. T., and McPherron, R. L., 1973, J. Geophys. Res., 78 (1), 92.) 10 years of ACE data Bz Amplitude in GSM coordinates 10 years of GONG data IPS extrapolation

61 UCSD Prediction Analyses Study Dst vs GSM Bz (CR 2074) Kp vs GSM Bz R = 0.64 R = 0.67 ACE Dst Kp ACE Bz R = 0.52 IPS ACE Bz R = 0.35 IPS-derived Bz IPS-derived Bz

62 UCSD Prediction Analyses Study Dst vs GSM Bz (CR 2083) Kp vs GSM Bz R = 0.39 R = 0.67 ACE Dst ACE Bz IPS ACE Bz Dst Kp Kp R = 0.52 R = 0.38 IPS-derived Bz IPS-derived Bz

63 Can t possibly be right - a good NOAA colleague GSM Bz Largest min -Bz -17nT 09 UT 03/27 (Perhaps)

64 GSM Bz UCSD current prediction Maybe Maybe

65 Conclusions: Geocentric Solar Magnetospheric (GSM) Bz: The reasons to determine Bz Concept studies: How we may be able to determine Bz 1) In CMEs. 2) In the background solar wind Now there are some successes in determining Bz