ANTICIPATION AND INTERPRETATION OF BLACK SWANS Lessons of A Volcanic Ash Cloud

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1 ANTICIPATION AND INTERPRETATION OF BLACK SWANS Lessons of A Volcanic Ash Cloud Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku

2 Structure of Presentation 1. Future As Signs 2. Future As Risks 3. Future As Learning 2

3 Black Swans shatter our security 3

4 Black Swans shatter our sense of security 4

5 FUTURE AS SIGNS The effort to anticipate and analyse Black Swans is related to several crucial issues in futures studies. First, it is an epistemological and semiotic question. Can futures be anticipated through various signs and signals at the present (Future as Signs)? Black swans can be preceded by weak signals or signs of possibly emerging trends pointing to them. However, black swans should not be confused with weak signals even though some of them may be interconnected. 5

6 Anticipation of Wild Cards/Black Swans In our turbulent world, anticipation skills are critical to diminish the vulnerability of society and of its actors facing such events also to adapt our activities proactively to sustain the consequences of these occurrences. Such events have traditionally been called as Wild Cards in futures studies. 6

7 What is a Black Swan? Rare, unlikely, unexpected event that has wide impacts (rarity, extremity, post-event efforts to explain) Unfortunate OR fortunate The concept of Black Swans emerged as a synonym for wild cards, introduced by Nassim Taleb a few years ago. 7

8 In the 17th century people in Europe were convinced that all swans are white (empiria) Kuva Olli Hietanen Observations only are not reliable Sirkka Heinonen 8

9 Nassim Taleb Black Swan 2007 The world is most changed by extremely unlikely and unexpected events 9

10 The list of modern Black Swans is getting longer.. 9/11 terrorist attack in 2001 Tsunami in South-East Asia in 2004 global financial crisis Haiti earthquake in 2010, and most recently the Icelandic volcanic ash cloud in April

11 FUTURE AS RISKS Black Swans are closely related to the notion of Risks and Uncertainties (Future as Risks). 11

12 Uncertainties & Vulnerability RISKS WORLD RESOLUTIQUE Sirkka Heinonen The FLAT World Nations Humans Companies Citizens RAPID CONSTANT CHANGE - Megatrends/- Discontinuities -Weak signals/ - Emerging issues - Wild cards/black Swans WORLD PROBLEMATIQUE (Club of Rome) WORLD RESOLUTIQUE GLOBAL CHALLENGES (Millennium Project)

13 Risks are about survival Humans, companies, nations wish to have continuity as individuals and within communities This is the basis for both security thinking and futures thinking New, uncertain, or unexpected things often threaten the feeling of security and survival Risks have to be identified, faced, interpreted and managed Sirkka Heinonen

14 Kaleidoscope of Risks The concept of risks merits re-thinking within the futures thinking paradigm new interest! The current foreseeable major risks emerge from social, environmental and energy-related issues. These risks have to anticipated alongside with economic and technological risks that are often more conspicuous new angle! Some social phenomena put pressure on social cohesion, emerging rapidly and unpredictably in virtual communities new risks! Sirkka Heinonen

15 One of the aims of futures studies is to highlight the possibility of sudden, rare and unexpected events with widespread impacts Another aim is to teach the capacity to anticipate them --- learning from Futures 15

16 FUTURE AS LEARNING Black Swans can be used to trigger a learning process towards higher futures awareness, proactiveness, agile adaptation strategies alternative thinking sustainability and impact analysis (Future as Learning). 16

17 CASE: VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD The Icelandic volcanic ash cloud provides a case in point for collective learning from a Black Swan through interpretations. 17

18 CASE: VOLCANIC ASH CLOUD The volcanic ash cloud case covers several issues The future of transport The business of air transport Utilisation of ICT and social media Health issues Food and agriculture? Relationship: humans-nature-technology... Black Swans can be used as a starting point for new development (patterns of behaviour) 18

19 Lessons Learned What you don t know, may become more relevant than what you know Anticipation of Black Swans builds up preparedness for extreme futures Identification and interpretation of weak signals may help in anticipating Black Swans Interpretation of Black Swans (that have occurred) may become A Game Changer understanding how the current structures, thinking and behaviour should be changed to survive in our turbulent world Sirkka Heinonen

20 Thank You! Sirkka Heinonen Professor of Futures Studies Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) University of Turku Helsinki Office: Korkevuorenkatu 25 A Helsinki sirkka.heinonen@tse.fi 20