Housing and Living Foresight

Transcription

1 Housing and Living Foresight - Approaches, Methods, and Ambitions - Prof. Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Research Workshop: Future Living June 3, Helsinki Academy of Finland Futures Thinking Future is about Thinking of the Future Basis for futures research/futures studies Systematic futures thinking > modern futures research 1

2 What is Futures Research? As broadly defined, futures research means cognitive and mental efforts to anticipate and scan the future (ever since the ancient Greece and Rome) As strictly defined, futures research means systematic action and approach for developing and using scientific methods and tools for possible, probable and preferred futures alternative future images (ever since the 1940s-60s) Finland late 70s --> academic field of research/discipline Basic Principles of Futures Research 1. The future cannot be predicted 2. The future is not pre-determined 3. The future can be affected (Roy Amara 1981) 2

3 In today s increasingly turbulent world it is important to foresee future developments Change is rapid, unpredictable and interlinked Foresight means thinking about the future - futures orientation literally it means trying to foresee the future Systematic futures research explores possible, probable and preferred futures what is the preferred future of housing? Long-term horizon, holistic, multidisciplinary approach Foresight within Futures Research Foresight = a critical and systematic approach and analysis of futures-related themes and fields systematic, multidisciplinary, holistic and long-term exploration of future development alternatives Foresight is a part within the field of futures research futures research, futures studies, futurology, prospective studies foresight housing and living foresight 3

4 Foresight The aim of foresight is literally to foresee the future foresight is the latest methodological approach in the continuum of anticipation of the future: prophecies > predictions > forecasting -> foresight... Hindsight Insight - Foresight Yesterday Today Tomorrow The seeds of the future are embedded in the present they just have to be identified and interpreted ---->> futures signals History does not exist either. It is being studied by means of the marks left at the present. 4

5 Criteria for Foresight within the larger framework of future research timeframe flexible (from shorter-term exercices to long-term foresight) involving many stakeholders (planners, researchers, authorities, citizens...) participatory multidisciplinary using various foresight tools and methods often using roadmaps action-orientated part of innovation process and policy learning process Frequently Used Foresight Methods Scenarios As manuscripts of the future, a whole array of different types of scenarios Storytelling technique Backcasting scenarios Finnish Housing Scenarios? Other methods: Delphi expert panels Megatrends Weak Signals Wild Cards Futures Wheel, Futures Table Discontinuities, What if? Simulations etc etc etc 5

6 Glenn & Gordon (2009) Millennium Project Futures Research Methodology 3.0! Foresight - Strategy - Innovation Foresight should be integrated to Strategy and Innovation in organisations as well as nation-wise on a continuous basis Foresight Process Higher ambition level for foresight Strategy Process (Strategic Foresight!) Innovation Process Open innovation collective creativity! Housing Foresight Research program to explore, direct and create Future Living in Finland 6

7 Proposals for research program on Future Living research program to be organised as foresight research program: foresight approach and methods required to a certain degree in all projects, joint foresight platform multidisciplinary and multistakeholder implementation start with a housing foresight benchmarking study (intnl comparisons) the program should answer the following questions: Sirkka Heinonen what are the preferred Finnish housing futures? what must we know in order to approach the vision? what must be done in order to achieve the goals? Thank You! sirkka.heinonen@tse.fi Professor of Futures Research Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) Turku School Of Economics Helsinki office: Korkeavuorenkatu 25 A 2, Helsinki, Finland Readings Amara, R. (1981). Futures Field. Searching for Definitions and Boundaries. Futurist 15 (1): Bell, W. (1997). Foundations of Futures Studies Vol. 1: History, Purposes and Knowledge, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick. Glenn, J. & Gordon, T. (eds) (2009). Futures Research methodology Version 3.0. Millennium Project. More info: Heinonen, Sirkka (2008). Multidimensional Concept of Risks in Horizon Scanning and Futures Thinking. In Tan Hong Ngoh, Edna & Hoo Tiang Boon (eds.) Thinking About the Future. Strategic Anticipation and RAHS. Volume published in conjunction with the second International Risks Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium RAHSS. National Security Coordination Secretariat & S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies/Nanyang Technological University. Singapore,