New Consciousness in Transformational Neo-Growth Society

Transcription

1 New Consciousness in Transformational Neo-Growth Society Prof Sirkka Heinonen Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC/UTU Futures Studies Tackling Wicked Problems Keynote 12th June 2015 Turku My Background Professor of Futures Research since 2007, Research Director at Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC), University of Turku WFSF Conference Chaos and Complexity Turku 1993 (FSFS, Secretary General)) PhD Helsinki University 1999 Life Beyond Information Society Turku 1999 Chief Research Scientist at VTT technology foresight, future of cities sustainable knowledge society, digital world, social media, innovation President of the Finnish Society for Futures Studies (FSFS) 2011 Chair of Helsinki Node of the Millennium Project 2001 Member of the Club of Rome 2005 Guest Professor at USTC (10/ /2016) 1

2 Structure of My Keynote 1. Futures Consciousness as Sensor of Change 2. Transformation and Rhizomatic Knowledge Creation 3. Neo-Growth with No Limits to Learning 4. New Consciousness Transformative Scenario of a Neo-Growth World 1. Futures Consciousness as Sensor of Change 2

3 Futures Mindset Cogito, ergo sum (René Descartes) ----> Cogito futurum, ergo homo futurus/futura sum The concept of futures consciousness is pivotal in creating the futures mindset, capable of tackling wicked problems. It originates from futures thinking, futures planning, futures studies, creating futures literacy the capacity to read signals, but also to feel/experience futures (immersive futuring) FUTURES CONSCIOUSNESS Futures Mindset? Futures wisdom level of orientation Futures consciousness Futures intelligence Futures literacy Futures thinking time Sirkka Heinonen 3

4 Futures research is not just exploring alternative futures, but also proactively making the preferred futures happen. This means awareness of continuous change! How can we anticipate & understand change and create foresight knowledge? 2. Transformation and Rhizomatic Knowledge Creation 4

5 Future is about Change: it can be incremental, systematic, radical, fundamental or transformational. The Grand Theory of Futures is concerned with the theories of change and transformation processes. If traditional social sciences see change caused by economy and culture, futures studies relies on systems theory change occurs from a complex interplay of a multitude of different factors. Futures studies sees change not as incremental but increasingly as transformational. Transformation means systemic, fundamental, radical and profound change, affecting the total system, not just its parts. It is also a quantum leap transition to another level of thinking and consciousness, in our society, on our planet, but essentially in our intertwined relation between humans, nature and technology. 5

6 One of the challenges for futures studies is to suggest novel approaches to create, gather and analyze future-oriented information. The philosophical concept of rhizome by French philosophers Gilles Deleuze and Félix Guattari can be used to outline a rhizomatic model of knowledge creation as a framework to observe the alternative futures even transformational ones. In rhizomatic model of knowledge sharing and creation, the knowledge is not disseminated systematically or logically based on a hierarchic binary tree-model, but rather following the organic way of rhizomes to grow in all directions, or water to run in all cavities around it. Tree as a system fixes an order, and its logic is tracing and reproduction, whereas a rhizome can be seen as a map with multiple entryways. (Deleuze and Guattari: A Thousand Plateaus 1987) 6

7 The rhizome model offers explanations for unexpected outside forces and unorthodox couplings (Thanem, 2005) The concept of rhizome as an analogue to e.g. describe the current evolution of Internet as a catalyst for meanings society (Heinonen, 2015) and the ways an individual is connected to the world through a rhizomatic communication weave (Heinonen & Ruotsalainen, 2014: 9) Futures knowledge inherently is rhizomatic - it is a map that, at least to some extent, remains beyond tracing at the present moment, because of the present moment. The prevailing ways to create futures knowledge are inclined towards systematic thinking in tree-like ways ---> applying rhizomatic model of knowledge creation could answer the need to depict complexity better. If the world is a rhizomatic system, how can it be observed as one? Are the methods we are using more tree-like than rhizome-like? What could the rhizomatic model of knowledge creation be in practice when researching the alternative futures? 7

8 3. Neo-Growth with No Limits to Learning Does change always imply growth? In our growth-orientated thinking growth is often synonymous to economic and technological growth More is Merrier. However, the growth that wastes energy and resources, also endangers species on earth, including us humans. Growth is much broader a concept than mere economic growth it encompasses all things human, even beyond that all living forms on earth. 8

9 Unsustainable growth is not a preferred future - progress should be adjusted to the Limits to Growth and seen as covering all spheres of life. On the other hand, there are No Limits to Learning, increasing futures consciousness. The growing change in our values and lifestyles towards immaterial renewal and wealth is a desirable future. This kind of societal Neo-Growth model à la Pentti Malaska may also yield new techno-economic innovations, while basing its foundation in deep cultural and ethical pursuits. Neo-Growth = attempt to re-establish a holistic vision of growth unlike degrowth, neo-growth does not reject growth but emphasises its positive connotations 1) environmentally sustainable, and 2) merges economic growth with cultural, social and spiritual growth 9

10 4. New Consciousness Transformative Scenario of a Neo-Growth World We sketched four scenarios, all transformational in an ongoing Tekes Project Neo-Carbon Energy. New Consciousness The most extreme scenario probes the boundaries and potentials of our futures consciousness and willingness to adopt a profound change of thinking and lifestyles, and to renew ourselves, not just our energy system towards renewables. 10

11 Neo-Carbon Energy Project studies a) a 100 % renewable energy system of solar, wind and storage, and b) societal implication of the new energy system / A COMPLETELY NEW RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEM WHERE ENERGY IS EMISSION-FREE, COST-EFFECTIVE AND INDEPENDENT. WHY? 2050: zero emission energy system has to be in place if global warming is limited to +2 C. 2030: only emission free technologies can be taken in use. 2015: solar and wind become the least cost options in large part of the World. NEO-CARBON ENERGY is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC. Discipline Jim Dator 11

12 Neo-Carbon Energy Project Transformative Energy Futures 2050 (all transformative! all based on renewable energy!) Neo-Carbon Enabling Neo-Growth Society Neo-Growth -> What kind of growth we want? Neo-Carbon -> How carbon emissions can be reducesdand used as a resource? Third Industrial Revolution Sirkka Heinonen Prosumerism Peer-to-peer society The main objective of the foresight part is to study possible socio-economic futures related to neo-carbon energy system. What kinds of societal economic, cultural, political and lifestyles-related changes does the neo-carbon energy system promote and enable? Emphasis on citizen-perspectives and preferred transformational futures To be linked with quantified energy data 12

13 Neo-Carbon Scenarios 1) Radical Startups 2) Value-Driven Techemoths 3) Green DIY Engineers 4) New Consciousness 13

14 New Consciousness =the Most Radical of the Four Scenarios The ecological crisis: warming climate + species extinctions World War III : escalated numerous small conflicts of hybrid warfare Ubiquitous ICTs: people are connected to the internet practically all their waking hours. Virtual and physical have become inseparable. New Consciousness Scenario It was understood that environmental and social problems were so huge that partial, practical and technological solutions were nowhere enough to solve them. Humans relationship to nature, to each other and to themselves had to be completely rethought (-> values of deep ecology as the norm) People conceive themselves no more as separate individuals, but deeply intertwined with other humans and as parts of nature. The change was facilitated by all-encompassing digital networks. 14

15 Does this kind of transformation require a preceding massive catastrophe to be a possible and preferable future, instead of remaining a ubiquitous utopia? Future bears an existential risk (risk of extinction of animal species and humanity). In order to solve these practical problems, we need to consider certain difficult theoretical questions: e.g. Would it be good or bad if less people (or animals) existed in the future? and Can an increase in population size compensate for a decrease individual well-being? (IFTF) TRANSFORMATION IN METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES? FS can experiment with applying methods that are not frequently used. Various combinations of different methods, both qualitative and quantitative, can be tested. Experimental futuring is a niche in FS that is increasingly gaining attention. Experiencing the future(s) can also be achieved through serious gaming. Serious gaming in FS means playing a game that has a societally important goal challenge to be tackled from the futures orientated point of view. (IFTF) 15

16 Experimentation with a CLA (Causal Layered Analysis) game to elaborate Four Transformative Energy Scenarios of NEO-CARBON Energy Project 11 th June

17 TO CONCLUDE The business-as-usual is the most dangerous thing Perhaps the most wicked global problem is us humans? Deep futures consciousness is needed to make transformation happen You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete. Buckminster Fuller ( ) New Consciousness Scenario in Transformational Neo-Growth Society 17

18 Thank You And Have A Flourishing Future! Sirkka Heinonen (at) utu.fi REFERENCES Dator, Jim (2012). Dream Society? Ubiquitous Society? No Society? Futures for Finland and the world as seen from a small Pacific Island. Conference of the Finnish Society for Futures Studies. 16 th August, 2012, Mikkeli. Glenn, Jerome, Gordon, Theodore & Florescu, Elizabeth State of the Future. Millennium Project. Washington. Glenn, Jerome & Gordon, Theodore (2009). Futures Research Methodology V 3.0. Millennium Project. Washington. V3.html Hall, Peter (1998). Cities in Civilization. Culture, Innovation, and Urban Order. London, 1169 p. Heinonen, S. (2015). Future of the Internet as a rhizomatc revolution towards digital meanings society. Forthcoming. Springer. Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture at University of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50 ppt slides. 18

19 Heinonen, Sirkka (2000). Prometheus Revisited. Human Interaction with nature through Technology in Seneca. Doctoral dissertation. Helsinki University. Commentationes Humanarum Litterarum Vol 115. The Finnish Society of Sciences and Letters. Helsinki. Heinonen, S. & Ruotsalainen, J. (2014). Sirpaleinen symbioosi: MEDEIA-hankkeen Tulevaisuusklinikka I Media ja journalism Heikkoja signaaleja ja uusia alkuja Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus. Tutu e-julkaisuja 8/ (Accessed 5 June 2015) Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2014). Toward Ubiquitous Learning visions of the futures of education, work and technology. 48 p. AEL, Helsinki. Malaska, Pentti (2010). A More Innovative Direction Has Been Ignored. In: Understanding Neogrowth - An Invitation to Sustainable Productivity. TeliaSonera Finland Plc. Helsinki, p nding_neogrowth.pdf Meadows, Dennis (2012). Policy Implications of Limits to Growth in the 21st Century. Club of Rome Conference, Bucharest. 19