Sustainable home heating practices Visions for 2050

Transcription

1 Sustainable home heating practices Visions for 2050 Prof. Anna Davies Geography Department Trinity College Dublin

2 Challenges to sustainable consumption Perfect Storm "Can we cope with the demands in the future on water? Can we provide enough energy? Can we do it, all that, while mitigating and adapting to climate change? And can we do all that in 21 years' time? John Beddington UK Chief Scientific advisor 2009 perfect storm by 2030 Factor change required Developed world needs to achieve Factor reduction in material consumption by 2050 Schmidt-Bleek (2007); Jansen & Vergragt (1992) System innovation essential Daily consumption is comprised of a set of social practices situated within socio-technical systems; a cluster of elements, including technology, regulations, user-practices and markets, cultural meanings, infrastructure, maintenance and supply networks. Elzen et al. (2004, 3)

3 Foresight trends: What if experiments Scenarios 1. Will 2. Could 3. Should Transition Management Participatory backcasting Critical design

4 Backcasting first creating a desirable (sustainable) future vision or normative scenario, followed by looking back at how this desirable future could be achieved, before defining and planning follow-up activities and developing strategies leading towards that desirable future (Quist & Vegragt, 2006, 1028). Example studies SusHouse (Quist et al 2001) Towards Sustainable Living in Households SPREAD Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 ( CONSENSUS: heating, washing and eating (

5 Consensus research Practice-oriented participatory backcasting: Consensus approach Systemic innovation Sufficiency Intervention & regulation Long-term view Involvement & co-creation Wellbeing Social practice approach Conventional approach Techno-economic Efficiency Non-interventionist Short-termism Top down Growth Rational actor

6 Consensus participatory backcasting phases Back-office Stakeholder engagement Stakeholder Learning analysis Online scenario feedback Stakeholder Learning analysis Dissemination & engagement Problem Definition 2050 Visioning Workshop (1) Scenario Elaboration Scenario Sustainability Assessment Citizen- Consumer Workshops (3) Backcasting Workshop (1) Transition Framework

7 The Future: 2050 How might the needs of home and personal heating be delivered more sustainably in 2050

8 Phase(1) Problem definition: Home energy consumption Technological Social User-behaviour Fossil fuel dependant Larger homes, fewer occupants Expectations & norms Inefficient homes Affordability Invisibility of energy Complexity in design Rebound effect Motivations

9 But dynamic situation: Past practices

10 But dynamic situation: Evolving practices & possibilities

11 Phase (2) Visioning workshops: Brainstorming 20 Interdisciplinary stakeholders: designers, policy-makers, architects, engineers, consumer representatives, non-governmental interests, planners, suppliers, technologists

12 Phase (2) Visioning: Clustering and rating Clusters & sub-clusters Concept Votes Number of concepts People Education: Mandatory eco-service 4 37 (28%) Lifelong sustainability learning for professionals 7 Social pressure: Levels of home energy use made public 10 Community based energy awards 3 Adaptation: Wear more clothing - comfortable, cosy and 3 durable Provision Biological energy: Kitchen and human waste to energy 0 36 (27%) Bacteria / plants to give off heat 1 Decentralisation: Micro-generation - solar and wind power for all 6 Hardware Direct heating: Geothermal pumps for homes with heat transfer between residential areas Intelligent body vest - senses body heat and regulates temperature Personal power pack - stores kinetic energy to heat body vest Home fabric improvements: Passive homes for all - improve housing stock (23%) Adapting / transforming home spaces 0 External, permeable membrane over home to 2 create regulate micro-climate Regulation Quotas: Carbon quotas - Individual 6 27 (20%) Street level energy quotas - collective 3 management Space reductions: No new build - maximise/adapt existing stock 3 Home floor space limits 4 Closer family units 3 Total 131

13 Stage (3) Scenario elaboration

14 Phase (4) Sustainability evaluation Integrated qualitative approach New economics indicators for sustainable consumption (Seyfang, 2006) Indicators for wellbeing (Halme et al., 2004) Economic sustainability (Simms &Young, 2000) New Economics indicators 1. Localisation 2. Building new infrastructures of provision 3. Reducing ecological footprints 4. Community building and collective action 5. Individual wellbeing 6. Economic sustainability Qualitative Exploratory/indicative, ordinal scale: -2,-1,0,+1,+2

15 Phase (5) Citizen-consumer workshops Desirability, modification, ranking Carbon Control positive overall, but unsure of technologies for control e.g. carbon quota scanner Heat Layer intriguing and attractive, but automation e.g. spot heating and personal heat vest ; risks of technology malfunction and the loss of practical skills Community Core concerns about privacy and loss of individualism and identity. Dominance of the if : yet-to-be-developed socio-technical innovations e.g. if it was functional, if it was equitable etc. Green Dynamic Mainstream

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17 Phase (6) Transition workshop Sector Visioning workshop Transition Workshop Interventions over time Policy Education / engagement Research & development, business & innovation Barriers & enablers Actors Cross-sectoral action across public, private, civil and semi-state spheres Public / semi-state National energy regulator (1) Department of energy (1) National energy agency (2) National energy agency (1) Department of environment (1), planner City council (1), architect Department of environment (1), planner City council (1), architect National energy supplier (1) Housing authority (1) Environmental awareness officer (1) Private Architecture practice (2) IT & Software company (1) Product designer (1) Energy technology company (2) Sustainability communications (1) Engineering company (2) Energy auditor (1) Plumber (1) Sustainability communications (1) NGO / Research Futures research (2) Futures research (2) Environmental policy research (2) Environmental policy research (1) Energy poverty agency (2) Energy poverty agency (1) Environmental education (1) Energy & built environment (3)

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19 Reflections from workshop participants Interaction The large group opened up a large range of insights, I see it as a valuable way to achieve a unique perspective on sustainability problem areas (Designer) Reflection The has helped me to review or reconsider previous views on certain topics (Architect) Holism Liked not looking at individual aspects in isolation seeing how initiatives connect within a time frame was very interesting (Policy) people/policy/technology is a good way to look at it (Technology company) Challenges: Timing (many responses) technology and innovation do not wait for policy (Technology company) matching results to the largely incremental nature of policy making (Department representative)

20 Reflections from research team Issues Participants - self selecting, inevitably partial Context & knowledge production situated, normative & politicised Impact of isolated experiment difficult to measure Benefits Widens perceptions of the problem faced and associated solutions Facilitates translation of tacit knowledge into explicit knowledge Creates transient spaces of interaction and learning Governance approach beyond individual behaviour change Challenges To move from experimentation to adoption To translate innovative spaces and scenarios into specific, actionable policy and design outcomes Worldwatch Institute Report (2011)

21 We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time TS Elliot, Little Gidding

22 Publications & acknowledgements Transition Frameworks & Lifestyle Survey: Doyle, R. and Davies, A.( under review) Towards sustainable household consumption: exploring a practice oriented, participatory backcasting approach for sustainable home heating practices in Ireland, Journal of Cleaner Production Davies, A., (2012) Food futures: co-designing sustainable eating practices for 2050, EuroChoices. Davies, A., Doyle, R. and Pape, J. (2012), Future visioning for sustainable household practices: spaces for sustainability learning?, Area. Thanks to Ruth Doyle, EPA, Consensus research team & all participants Contact: daviesa@tcd.ie