CLEAN TRANSFORMATION AS A COMPLEX ENDEAVOUR THE CASE OF CHILE

Transcription

1 CLEAN TRANSFORMATION AS A COMPLEX ENDEAVOUR THE CASE OF CHILE Joni Karjalainen, Noora Vähäkari & Sirkka Heinonen University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre Futures of A Complex World 25th Anniversary Conference Turku, Finland June 13,

2 OUTLINE OF THE PRESENTATION 1) Energy transformations Research question, research approach & methodology 2) Background: Global renewable energy trends Chile as a pioneer in Latin America 3) Theoretical approach Multi-level perspectives (MLP) & complexity What is the role of cultural, social and institutional dynamics? 4) Preliminary findings, analysis and discussion Scenario-testing in a Futures Clinique

3 1. WHAT ENERGY TRANSFORMATION? Climate change: push for infrastructure and societal change From business-as-usual to transformation Energy literature focused on techno-economic aspects of energy systems, less on socio-cultural aspects. But technological and social change are intertwined. Many types of energy transformations: low-carbon carbon capture & storage, nuclear, renewable energy system

4 ENERGY IN A NEOCARBONIZED WORLD In the neo-carbon world, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, In the neo-carbon and other renewables. system, everything Synthetic is produced processes emissions-free replace fossil with solar, fuel based wind, and ones. other renewables, and synthetic materials from renewables even replace oil. In the 21 st century, decentralized energy system drives a peer-to-peer society. In the 20 th century, infrastructure was centralized.

5 HOW WILL THE FUTURE OF CHILE LOOK LIKE IN A NEOCARBONIZED SOCIETY? What dynamics are driving, and can drive, such transformation? In the neo-carbon system, everything is produced emissions-free with solar, wind, and other renewables, and synthetic materials from renewables even replace oil.

6 THE CASE STUDY: CHILE Investments in education (HDI 38th in 2015) Political history Hierarchical society Increasing significance of service sector Mining industry: copper provides 20% of GDP and 60% of exports (2013) Significant economic growth for decades, Stable business and investment environment Few dominant companies Further social reforms encouraged Growth needs to become more inclusive, especially for women Data: OECD; WB; various sources

7 Some of the highest solar irradiation on Earth in the Atacama desert

8 And a long windy coast line

9 GOVERNMENT RE OBJECTIVE: 70% BY 2050, EVEN 100% (National Energy Commission, May 2017) From energy net importer to exporter?

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11 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK

12 THE UPTAKE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND INNOVATIONS Multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions novel technologies emerge from strategic niches (Geels & Schot 2011, Schot & Geels 2008) Decentralized energy prosumerism as a future sociotechnical imaginary: Third Industrial Revolution (Rifkin 2011) Politics of energy transformation as state-led, market-led, citizen-led, technology-led (Scoones et al 2015): technological development pushes down market prices. (Right) governance choices enable sustainable innovations and energy transition processes. Small consumers as engines to transition (Rubio & Folchi 2012)

13 MULTI-LEVEL PERSPECTIVES AND STRATEGIC NICHE MANAGEMENT WHERE ARE VALUES? WHERE IS CULTURE IN THE TRANSITIONS THEORY? Landscape pressures begin a questioning of the existing sociotechnical configuration Changes in value systems (socio-cultural) can push regime change (Geels 2002, 2004; Geels and Schot 2007)

14 SOCIETAL DEVELOPMENT AS A COMPLEX ENDEAVOUR Our research interest lies in the sociocultural aspects of energy sector transition in Chile Societies are complex systems (Andersson et al 2014) Development is transformational social change, which involves polity, economy, social relations, public administration, and social protection (Viterna & Robertson 2015) What other theories to address value-based, sociocultural change?

15 3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY Foresight part of the Neo-Carbon Energy project four transformative scenarios 2050 Background analysis (review of policy and media documents) Scenarios tested in a Futures Clinique in Santiago, Chile in October 2016 Expert interviews Further document analysis

16 ENABLERS FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR TRANSITION IN CHILE? 1. Electricity demand growth: in the copper sector and residential use 2. Abundant resources in solar (but also wind, hydro, and geothermal) 3. Limited fossil reserves and high import costs 4. Market economy (i.e. stable business environment) what about the socio-cultural factors? Adapted from Davis (2017)

17 1. RADICAL STARTUPS 3. GREEN DIY ENGINEERS FOUR TRANSFORMATIONAL SCENARIOS VALUE-DRIVEN TECHEMOTHS 4. NEW CONSCIOUSNESS Sirkka Heinonen

18 SCENARIO TESTING: FUTURES CLINIQUE Research questions How is Chile in 2050 (energy-wise; citizens, customers, values, culture, organisations, etc.)? What are actors like? What new actors emerge? What should happen for such a system to be adopted? Futures Wheel - Exploring ideas on citizens; organisations; and energy - Who are the key actors in the future? PESTEC Table - Systematically probing alternative futures - Exploring unexpected factors ( Black Swans ) Organized in Santiago de Chile 24 Oct 2016

19 4. PRELIMINARY FINDINGS

20 PARTICIPANTS VIEWS Peer-to-peer society necessitates collective trust to fellow citizens, decision makers, social structures, companies Fully decentralised system not taken for granted certain level of authority is needed Diversification of economy solar energy as the new copper? What is the role of the weight of the political history of Chile?

21 CHILEAN SOCIETY BASED ON 100% RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES IS POSSIBLE BY 2050 IF Economy is diversified and smaller actors have access to markets, energy production is democratized Necessary infrastructure (grids) is developed Supportive policies remain to be in place Collective trust and communality are developed to support a decentralised energy system (and the peer-to-peer principles) Genuinely prosumeristic view as a long-term goal? Socio-cultural factors can reinforce technology-driven transition or hinder it

22 THANK YOU! Joni Karjalainen Noora Vähäkari University of Turku Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC) utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/pages/neo-fore.aspx

23 SUGGESTED READINGS Davis Lucas (2017) Four Reasons Why Chile Is the Biggest Solar Market in Latin America. Energy Institute at HAAS, University of California Berkeley Publised: 27th March 2017 Jocelyn Viterna & Cassandra Robertson (2015) New Directions for the Sociology of Development. Annual Review of Sociology 2015, 41: Ian Scoones, Melissa Leach and Peter Newell (eds.) (2015) The Politics of Green Transformations, Routledge Claes Andersson, Anton Törnberg, Petter Törnberg (2014) Societal systems Complex or worse? Futures M.d. Mar Rubio & Mauricio Folchi (2012) Will small energy consumers be faster in transition? Evidence from early shift from coal to oil in Latin America. Energy Policy 50 (2012) Owen Barder (2012a) What is Development? Center for Global Development Blog, 16 Aug Owen Barder (2012b) The Implications of Complexity for Development. The Kapuściński Lecture. Johan Schot & Frank W. Geels (2008) Strategic niche management and sustainable innovation journeys: theory, findings, research agenda, and policy, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20:5, , DOI: / Marjolein C.J. Caniëls & Henny A. Romijn (2008) Strategic niche management: towards a policy tool for sustainable development, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20:2, , DOI: / Read more: utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/pages/neo-fore.aspx

24 Breyer, Christian & Heinonen, Sirkka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2017). New Consciousness: A societal and energetic vision for rebalancing humankind within the limits of planet Earth. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 114, REFERENCES Juho Ruotsalainen, Sirkka Heinonen, Joni Karjalainen and Marjukka Parkkinen (2016), Peer-topeer work in the digital meaning society 2050, European Journal for Futures Research 4:10, Dec 2016, Open access link: Heinonen, Sirkka Karjalainen, Joni Helle, Aino & Nisula, Sakari (2017) Argentinian Energy Landscapes. Case Study of the Neo-Carbon Energy Project. FFRC ebook 12/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 84 p. ISBN , ISSN Lang, Merja Karjalainen, Joni & Heinonen, Sirkka (2016) Glocal Insights to Neo-Carbon Energy and Its Forerunners. NEO-CARBON ENERGY WP1 Working Paper 4/2016. Finland Futures Research Centre, ISBN , 112 p. Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2016) Radical Transformation in a Distributed Society - Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios Neo- Carbon Energy WP1 Working Paper 1/2016. University of Turku: Finland Futures Research Centre pdf Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the Third Industrial Revolution. Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. ebook 6/2015. Finland Futures Research Centre, 74 p. Read more: utu.fi/en/units/ffrc/research/projects/energy/pages/neo-fore.aspx

25 NEO-CARBON Energy project is one of the Tekes strategic research openings and the project is carried out in cooperation with Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT Ltd, Lappeenranta University of Technology LUT and University of Turku, Finland Futures Research Centre FFRC.