Torsti Loikkanen, Principal Scientist, Research Coordinator VTT Innovation Studies

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1 Forward Looking Activities Governing Grand Challenges Vienna, September 2012 Support of roadmap approach in innovation policy design case examples on various levels Torsti Loikkanen, Principal Scientist, Research Coordinator VTT Innovation Studies

2 Content VTT s roadmap and foresight - overview Arguments for foresight Rationale for foresight Foresight as cumulative learning process Methodological outline of roadmap Case studies Natural gas company (ES) Saimaa Science Park (FI) Victoria Technology Roadmap (AU) Conclusions

3 VTT carries out various future oriented exercises

4 for private & public clients, with different methodological approaches

5 Arguments for foresight by organizations, regions and nations Preparing long-term decisions Formulating longer term national and regional programs Setting research priorities, for example, by matching opportunities for investment in producing new and capabilities, with social and market requirements for the application of such capabilities Planning science and technology funding Planning major public spending with long-term implications (e.g. infrastructure) Strategic decisions, defining the strategy of a company, industry or policy-making Coping with challenges Transition of economic, political or other systems Improving long-term competitiveness within a certain territory Changes to socio-economic framework (new markets, new legislation etc.) Changes in natural environment (e.g. coastal flooding, climate change) Demographic changes Slightly adapted from:

6 Objectives and requirements of foresight and ex-post & ex-ante and impact assessment in policy-making Ex-ante and ex-post IA is aimed at compiling and analyzing data of additional impacts of innovation policy-making (as compared to hands-off approach) to be used by policy-makers in justifying innovation policy-making and public research funding for creating and making revisions to strategy and implementation of policy, (re)directing policy objectives and instruments, and (re)allocating public R&D funding in communicating with and raising awareness among tax-payers and all relevant stakeholder groups in policy-making Innovation is a multidimensional issue, requiring versatile and multidisciplinary foresight and impact assessment methodologies Reliability: neutral and impartial expertise needed in executing foresight and impact astudies

7 Rationale for foresight and associated evaluation issues Rationale for foresight What does it do? Expected outcomes? Evaluation focus? Providing policy advice Highlights the longer term and extends perspectives Policy decisions, resource allocations More rational decision making over space and time Attribution of decisions to foresight exercise Changes in decisionmaking processes Building advocacy coalitions Highlights challenges in an interaction space around which interest groups coalesce New emerging networks and communities Wide commitment to realization of a shared vision Nature of networks Actions undertaken by them Providing social forums Provides a hybrid forum for strategic reflection, debate and action Broadened participation, democratic renewal Numbers and breadth of actors involved Focus and quality of debates Benefits to participants (Source: Georghiou and Keenan 2006)

8 Foresight as cumulative learning process -- SECI model (Case: Nordic H2 Foresight) Tacit Socialization Dialogue Tacit Externalization Tacit Tacit Field building Internalization Explicit Core group Project group Steering committee Nordic expert network Project website Conferences Ongoing pilot projects in partner organizations R&D activities where the project partners are involved in Strategy work in partner organizations Learning by doing Expert interviews Brainstorming in scenario and vision workshops Questionnaire completed by experts in vision workshop Group work in TRM and Action workshops Three external scenarios Identification of areas of innovation potential Technology visions & roadmaps Lists of barrier and carriers, challenges and actions needed Model of a Nordic H2 energy system + model calculations Combination Explicit Explicit Linking explicit Explicit (Source: Adapted by Nonaka, 1994; Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995)

9 Foresight as cumulative learning process -- SECI model (Case: Nordic H2 Foresight) Tacit Socialization Dialogue Tacit Externalization Tacit Tacit Field building Internalization Core group Project group Steering committee Nordic expert network Project website Conferences Ongoing pilot projects in partner organizations R&D activities where the project partners are involved in Strategy work in partner organizations Learning by doing Expert interviews Brainstorming in scenario and vision workshops Questionnaire completed by experts in vision workshop Group work in TRM and Action workshops Participation in foresight/roadmap process important => commitment to common language & mindset & objectives, etc. Roadmap report as such informative (in codified terms) but gives not access to accumulated tacit and learning process during roadmap process. (Cf.: recent experiences of transition management and systemic innovation projects.) Three external scenarios Identification of areas of innovation potential Technology visions & roadmaps Lists of barrier and carriers, challenges and actions needed Model of a Nordic H2 energy system + model calculations Combination Explicit Linking explicit Explicit Explicit Explicit (Source: Adapted by Nonaka, 1994; Nonaka & Takeuchi, 1995)

10 Methodological outline of conventional roadmap (applied also by VTT) Socio-economic trends and drivers Market / industry trends, drivers, key issues, uncertainties, barriers/carriers, etc. Markets and businesses M 1 M 1 Products, applications, solutions Technologies Science and Technologies, R&D programs R&D 1 P 1 P 2 P 3 P 4 T/I 1 T/I 2 T/I 3 T/I 4 R&D 2 R&D 4 R&D 6 R&D 3 R&D 5 Vision: Resources Capital investment / finance Supply chain Staff / skills (Adapted by several contribution of R. Phaal) Present State-of-the-art Medium Term(-20??) Long-term solutions (20??-20??)

11 Case I: Company level roadmap Roadmap for Spanish natural gas company Technology roadmap of gas transportation and distribution for the company distributing natural gas primarily for the households in the Northern Spain Future oriented analysis of drivers, products and markets and technologies in gas transportation and distribution In collaboration with the local consulting company having a long cooperation with natural gas company VTT/FI: expert roadmap in identifying relevant technology fields, f.ex. coating & material alternatives of gas pipelines, smart grids, gas transportation techniques, energy markets, life cycle perspectives Spain/Bilbao: VTT + consulting company: intensive revision round of roadmap together => workshop with the board of customer company on results, conclusions and recommendations Evaluation: The roadmap proved to be important external future oriented input to the strategy process of company, being just underway at that time -- positive feedback afterwards

12 Case I: Company level roadmap Roadmap for Spanish natural gas company

13 Case II: Regional eco-innovation system Saimaa Science Park (SSP) Roadmap process in co-operation with VTT and Eera Ltd consulting as facilitator of workshops and other events Focus on material and environmental technologies aimed at identifying strategic niche areas to be further developed competitive in global markets on a basis of path dependent accumulated expertise in the region Main key locomotive companies committed since the planning phase of project key condition for success of following stages VTT: key trends, change drivers (technological, economic, social, regulation); key competence centers; key national/global competitors with their business models; key research projects; assessment of collected information vis-à-vis actors in SSP region Regional SWOT carried out to reinforce and re-direct the regional capacities VTT: expert-based assessment process for evaluating emerging technologies, markets and technology risk => VTT Logos as methodological tool => Evaluation: Realization of results of roadmap although after the inertia in allocating national and EU structural funds by responsible national authorities

14 Case II: Regional innovation system Saimaa Science Park (SSP)

15 Case III: State level innovation system Victoria Technology Roadmap 2020 The project was commissioned by the Department of Innovation, Industry and Regional Development (DIIRD) of Victoria State, Australia The purpose: to identify the most promising technological trends providing sustainable competitive advantage for the state in the future The project assessed the impacts of emerging technologies in nine industrial sectors and their impacts on industrial structures till 2020 Various policy recommendations were raised and concluded during and after the roadmap in related interviews, workshops and events organized for industries, S&T communities, and responsible authorities, also from comparative aspects to policy instruments in other countries (with different intervention traditions) Main outcome: a synthesis of impacts of emerging technologies and related new industrial directions convergences in the region till 2020 Evaluation: Contribution to DIIRD policy-making (although with inertia due to change of government in next elections)

16 Phases of Victoria technology roadmap -2025

17 Example of one roadmap

18 Conclusions: experiences of support of roadmap & foresight in innovation policy planning & making Objectives of & expectations of three examples by and large similar although at various levels and with various expected rates of details -- following the rationales discussed in the beginning of presentation Roadmap approach, as described, is a useful methodology in addressing strategic intervention related issues, lock-ins of system, interdependencies => generating policy conclusions for guiding strategic decision-making Roadmap process creates strategic guidance for identifying steps required in transformation towards created vision (=> transition management approach) Roadmap provides nuanced perspectives of temporal sequencing in co-evolution of technologies, innovations and socio-economic development, and refresh ideas for application of new policy instruments In increasing budget pressures an increasing need to complement roadmap and foresight approaches by integrated and more detailed at-ante impact assessment with identifying, follow-up and revisions of impact goals Of key importance is the commitment of relevant interest participants invest in this!

19 VTT creates business from technology

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