Reduction of complexity by means of indicators

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Elinor Delilah Holland
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1 Reduction of complexity by means of indicators 6 TH OECD WORLD FORUM, SESSION BUILDING RESILIENCE 29. NOVEMBER 2018, INCHEON, KOREA

2 Sustainable Development 50YRS CLUB OF ROME, 30YRS BRUNDTLAND 2

3 Sustainable Development Focus of this lecture Social Environment Bearable Equitable Sustainable Viable Economic 3

4 50 years quantifying environment uncertain risky quantifiable volume and price changes: energy crisis, depletion of natural resources local changes of quality: air, waste, water etc., degradation global phenomena such as Ozone layer, climate change ecosystems and planetary boundaries local, quantitative qualitative global, systemic 4

Framework for the Development of Environment Statistics (FDES 2013) Final official

5 Basic Statistics Figure 3: The DPSIR framework STlESA/STAT/SEA.M/78 DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS STATISTICS DIVISION UNITED NATIONS Framework for the Development of Environment Statistics (FDES 2013) Final official edited version Prepared by the United Nations Statistics Division 27 June 2016 I = P x A x T

6 John R. Hicks Keep Capital Intact! 6

7 Nicholas Georgescu- Roegen 7

8 Amartya Sen 8

9 Operate within Planetary Boundaries! Johan Rockström / /planetary-boundaries-credit-Azote+copy.jpg 9

10 Resilience APPLYING A SYSTEMS APPROACH 10

11 The Doughnut of social and planetary boundaries 11

12 Systems 12

13 Shocks and capacities 13

14 Quantification, risk, uncertainty Systemic risks threats for systems Risk vs. uncertainty Probability of an unknown event is quantifiable Uncertainty: probability of an unknown event is not quantifiable Risk and information, realism, relativism real risks perceived risks 14

15 Measurement: Where is the problem? CAN WE CONTINUE THAT WAY? 15

16 Science, fiction, science fiction 16

17 17

18 Facts, reality, perception 18

19 Crisis of nation state democratic institutions, authorities 19

20 The world we live in Data revolution: "What steam was to the 19th century, and oil has been to the 20th, data is to the 21st" ( pdf ) Data Society Evidence based decision making: If you can t measure it, you can t manage it ( ) Audit Society Post-truth-politics: "The 5% Unemployment Figure Is One Of The Biggest Hoaxes In Modern Politics" ( ) Twitter Society Globalisation of economies and crises: Planet at risk of heading towards Hothouse Earth state ( planet-at-risk-of-heading-towards-hothouse-earth-state.html) Global Risk Society 20

17 Sustainable Development Goals 169 targets 232 SD indicators 93 Tier I indicators 77 Tier II indicators 57 Tier III indicators 5 indicators have multiple tiers 2015 was a landmark year for

21 17 Sustainable Development Goals 169 targets 232 SD indicators 93 Tier I indicators 77 Tier II indicators 57 Tier III indicators 5 indicators have multiple tiers 2015 was a landmark year for multilateralism and international policy shaping, with the adoption of several major agreements: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (March 2015) Addis Ababa Action Agenda on Financing for Development (July 2015) Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development with its 17 SDGs was adopted at the UN Sustainable Development Summit in New York in September Paris Agreement on Climate Change (December 2015). ( 21

22 content/uploads/2018/10/photo-reuters-4- e jpg?3fe2f8&3fe2f _RC1B31B88850_RTRMADP_3_CLIMATECHANGEIPCC_ JPG 22

Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries https://www.stockholmresilience.org/download/18.

23 Sustainable Development Goals within Planetary Boundaries e%20development%20goals_web.pdf 23

24 SD metrics HELPING THE SOCIETY TO MAKE DECISIONS: ITERATION, LEARNING AND EVOLUTION 24

25 Construction of Indicators Indicators are in trade-off between Scientific consistency Statistical measurability Political relevance 25

26 Construction of Indicators Scientific consistency Statistical measurability Political relevance 26

27 Work systems: Statistics, Science and Politics macro indicators accounts, detailed indicators basic data theoretical concept model basic research political programme political topic individual actions Statistics Science Politics 27

28 Work system of the actor science axioms, theoretical concepts applied models basic research 28

29 Work system of the actor politics political program topic individual action 29

30 Work system of the actor statistics macro indicators accounts, detailed indicators basic data 30

31 Iterative decision-making process A: Development of basic data (after consulting users) laboratory (theory) Statistics Science Politics 31

32 iterative decision-making process B: Aggregation with scientific methods laboratory Statistics Science Politics 32

33 iterative decision-making process C: Selection of indicators laboratory bazaar (negotiations) Statistics Science Politics 33

34 Conclusion SCIENCE, SOCIETY AND STATISTICS 34

35 Better metrics Better decisions Sustainable development means (in particular from an environmental perspective) living well within the boundaries of the planet Sustainability metrics should: capture the complexity of the phenomena at stake, (resilience, risks.), be state of the art (multiple sources, technologies, models ) be of sufficient quality (coverage, timeliness, comparability across space and time), quality depends on use (fit for purpose in policy cycle) allow internalising externalities (management, valuation.) 35

36 Better metrics Better decisions Better metrics should enable better decision making in favour of SD They enable societies to navigate through unknown territories towards are more sustainable way of living. Today s challenges and risks (e.g. through globalisation) need to be addressed in such a way that democratic opinion making is supported through participation and communication 36

37 Better metrics Better decisions Continuous improvement and learning in a co-evolution (i.e. a collaborative, iterative learning process) with societal changes on the way to the long-term goal of Sustainable Development. This evolutionary perspective should be enhanced by multiple iteration in learning cycles and interaction between different actors and disciplines a. scientific theory/models empirical data/models, b. data/information use/application, c. scientific theory/models use/application. 37

38 Better metrics Better decisions The learning and continuous improvement should be based on evidence of evidence (empirical analysis of the impacts of SD metrics). Partnership, trust and governance are essential success factors; one should establish platforms and channels that facilitate communication amongst scientists, producers and users of metrics, develop tools for empowering civil society to tackle disinformation, foster engagement with fast-evolving information technologies, safeguard the strengths /independence of institutions/researchers working in the area of data sciences/statistics, enhance transparency about the quality of information and compliance with ethical principles and good governance. 38

39 Thank you 39

Please send your responses by to: This consultation closes on Friday, 8 April 2016.

Please send your responses by to: This consultation closes on Friday, 8 April 2016. CONSULTATION OF STAKEHOLDERS ON POTENTIAL PRIORITIES FOR RESEARCH AND INNOVATION IN THE 2018-2020 WORK PROGRAMME OF HORIZON 2020 SOCIETAL CHALLENGE 5 'CLIMATE ACTION, ENVIRONMENT, RESOURCE EFFICIENCY AND