Scenario Development Process

Transcription

1 Scenario Development Process 1. Identify Key Elements of Change 2. Filter uncertainties to identify key drivers 3. Develop scenario stories for the world in 2020 Key Uncertainties Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Affluence Ltd Globalization Unwinding Competing Horizons 1

2 Scenario Development Process 1. Identify Key Elements of Change Key Uncertainties Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; 2

3 Scenario Development Process 1. Identify Key Elements of Change Explore Key Uncertainties ranges of Uncertainty Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; 3

4 Range of Potential Uncertainties Identified Demographics Science and Technology Natural Resources and the Environment Security and Social Cohesion Governance Global Economy 4

5 Demographics and Public Health Population growth paths Response to population aging Nature of urbanization Migration rules Infectious diseases 5

6 Demographics: Population Growth Global population: from 6.5 billion to 7.5 billion by 2020 ~97% of growth in the developing world Aging population in OECD countries Youth Bulge in many developing countries Impact on growth? Effect of gender imbalance? Stress on Social services? 6

7 Demographics: Response to Aging Growing over- 65 population Increasing dependency ratios (Europe, Japan... China) Fiscal pressures (pensions, healthcare)? Policy responses (migration, retirement age)? 7

8 Demographics: Nature of Urbanization In developing countries, by 2020, most population will be urban Will urbanization: increase economic growth? reduce infrastructure and service delivery costs? overwhelm local service capacity? disrupt social stability? 8

9 Demographics: Migration Rules Will policies encourage, discourage or re-direct migration? Will temporary migration become permanent? 9

10 Demographics: Infectious Diseases drug development? changing behavior? new pandemics? 10

11 Science and Technology Investments in Research and Development Emerging Technologies Medical Breakthroughs Information and Communications Technology Surprising Consequences of Science and Technology Evolution of the Workplace 11

12 Science and Tech: Investment in R&D public R&D funding? private R&D? uptake of new technology? 12

13 Science and Tech: Emerging Technologies Impact of bio and other technologies? Economic viability of promising technology? 13

14 Science and Tech: Medical Breakthroughs Effect on human health? On health costs? Impact of extended longevity? 14

15 Science and Tech: IT Widening digital returns divide? Impact on governance? 15

16 Science and Tech: Unintended Consequences 16

17 Science and Tech: Workplace Evolution Effects of IT revolution Increasing rate of job creation and destruction? Further shift from vertical integration to outsourcing? Greater corporate decentralization and telecommuting? Polarization beyond blue and white collars? 17

18 Natural Resources & the Environment Climate Change Energy Needs and Responses Water Scarcity Ecosystem Change Natural Disasters Food Demand and Production 18

19 Natural Resources: Climate Change Extent of rising temperature? Lower agricultural productivity? Displacement of ocean shore populations? Countervailing technology 19 and behaviors?

20 Natural Resources: Energy Needs Rate of growth of demand? Extend of fossil fuel supply? Geopolitics of energy? Adoption of substitutes? 20

21 Natural Resources: Water Scarcity Demand may outstrip supply soon after 2020 Decreasing water quality Water use in agriculture? Cooperation or conflict over water? 21

22 Natural Resources: Ecosystem Change Decreasing forest cover & biodiversity Increases in crop and livestock productivity, aquaculture and forestry Long term effect on global ecosystem? Role of technology to lessen damage? Impact of regulation or public opinion? 22

23 Natural Resources: Natural Disasters Advances in prediction and mitigation? Inter-government cooperation for prevention? 23

24 Natural Resources: Food Demand Effect of water shortages on production? Health awareness? Changes to tariffs, subsidies? 24

25 Security and Social Cohesion Major Conflicts and Wars Terrorism Security Responses Cultural, Religious and Ethnic Tensions Global Crime 25

26 Security: Major Wars and Conflict Flashpoints of the future? Effect of new tech and weapons on wars? Impact of non-state actors (WMDs in private hands)? 26

27 Security: Terrorism Who? Why? Where? 27

28 Security: Security Responses Increasing defense and security spending Tightening of immigration policies Global anti-crime initiatives Loss of privacy? Integrated vs. independent responses? Effect on measures on economic activity? 28

29 Security: Cultural, Religious and Ethnic Tensions Convergence of cultures in many parts of the world Wide skepticism of foreign influence ICT makes it harder for communities to be insulated Convergence/divergence of cultures? More cooperation or greater isolationism? Role of identity along cultural/religious/ethnic lines? 29

30 Security: Global Crime Staying ahead of the criminals technologically? Extent of international cooperation to combat crime? 30

31 Governance Global balance of power Global governance National governance Influence of civil society Public-private boundaries 31

32 Governance: Global Balance of Power Use of power to drive a shared global agenda or to divide? Use of power at the regional and global levels? 32

33 Governance: Global Governance Growing interdependence across countries More and more global issues require cooperation What global issues will emerge in 2020? How will nations respond to these issues? Will the current institutions prove sufficient? Can a new governance system be agreed upon? 33

34 Governance: National Governance How will countries respond to evolving expectations of modernizing societies? Can science and technology help improve national governance? 34

35 Governance: Influence of Civil Society Level of public trust, support and funding they can attract? Type of engagement with government and business? 35

36 Governance: Public-Private Boundaries If the top 100 economic entities were assembled 52 of these major players would be corporations and 48 national governments Governance in the 21st Century, OECD Further shift towards the private sectors? Will public-private partnerships be crippled by low public support? 36

37 Global Economy Openness of trade and economic integration Inequality The U.S. economic outlook and the roll of the dollar China s growth path India s growth path Productivity in Europe and Japan Global financial markets 37

38 Global Economy: Trade and integration Anti-globalization backlash? Regional trade agreements stepping stones or obstacles? 38

39 Global Economy: Inequality Distribution of economic growth? Perceptions of inequality? 39

40 Global Economy: U.S. economy Role of the dollar? Deficitcorrection measures? Resilience of the U.S. economy? 40

41 Global Economy: China s growth path Environmental threats? Nonperforming bank loans? Demographic political and social transitions? 41

42 Global Economy: India s growth path External tensions? Political fragility? Inequality? 42

43 Global Economy: Productivity, EU & Japan Behavior of aging populations? Effect of migrants? Regulatory flexibility? 43

44 Global Economy: Global financial markets Nature of future crises? 44

45 Global Economy: Funding for development Focus on global public goods? Role of private players? Multilateral or bilateral? 45

46 Scenario Development Process 1. Identify Key Elements of Change 2. Filter uncertainties to identify key drivers 3. Develop scenario stories for the world in 2020 Key Uncertainties Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Affluence Ltd Globalization Unwinding Competing Horizons 46

47 Scenario Development Process 1. Identify Key Elements of Change 2. Filter uncertainties to identify key drivers 3. Develop scenario stories for the world in 2020 Key Uncertainties Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Text about uncertainties; more text about uncertainties; Affluence Ltd Globalization Unwinding Competing Horizons 4. Derive Implications for: The world China your corporation 47