A Framework for Understanding Food Systems Foresight and Scenario Analysis

Transcription

1 A Framework for Understanding Food Systems Foresight and Scenario Analysis

2 Understanding Foresight Food Systems Foresight

3 Why Foresight4Food Food security and stability, migration, transparency Governance of food systems Inclusive Growth Food and Nutrition security Demand on fisheries, healthy diets Ag impact on biodiversity and soils Food Healthy Diet Paying for education Climate resilient ag, reducing agifood emissions Food waste Sustainably feeding cities Inclusive Growth Systems Infrastructure and innovation key to ag Large employer Water use, on farm solar Ag is key to empowerment Reducing water use in ag, reducing pollution Transformations in (agri) food systems will impact on all SDGs

4 Exercise Think quietly (3mins): What does foresight mean to you? What do think it would mean to somebody else? What is fundamental question you have about foresight methodology / approaches Share with your neighbor (5minutes) At the table make a list of 5 critical questions about foresight and scenarios methodology you would like to discuss (10 minutes0

5 Basic Definitions foresight: the ability to judge correctly what is going to happen in the future and plan your actions based on this knowledge (Cambridge dictionary) Thinking through [scenario] stories, and talking in depth about their implications, brings each person s unspoken assumptions about the future to the surface. Scenarios are thus the most powerful vehicles I know for challenging our mental models about the world and lifting the blinders that limit our creativity and resourcefulness. Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View: Planning for the Future in an Uncertain World

6 Some Resources For Getting Started

7 Foresight in Context Governance Foresight Human Cognition Systems Thinking (complexity)

8 Deeper Inspirations

9 Anticipatory Governance Shared perspectives of what constitutes a desirable future Governing with a longer-term perspective for current and future generations Identifying and responding to drivers and trends that threaten or support desired futures Dampening negatives Amplifying positives Exploring possible/plausible futures and creating mechanisms of resilience and risk management for different scenarios Being aware of and mitigating for tipping points Looking for weak signals that foreshadow black swans low probability high impact events

10 Framework for Understanding Foresight

11 Challenges of perceiving and anticipating the future Human Perception and Understanding Methodology Values Information Bias Frames Windows on the World real world of socio-ecological interactions turbulence Now unpredictability uncertainty Novelty ambiguity Dynamics of complex adaptive Systems Drivers Future

12 An initial framing

13 Dimensions of Foresight Qualitative Participatory Quantitative

14 Understanding the System of Analysis Boundaries Conceptual Model

15 Drivers, Trends and Uncertainties Stream Trains Black Swans Easily perceived drivers and trends that will influence change - direct and indirect Rare and/or unpredictable events that have a big impact

16 Risks and Opportunities Systemic Risks Transformational Opportunities

17 Steam Trains Black Swans Systemic Risks Transformational opportunities

18 Computational Models and Data Sets Models IMPACT - The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IFPRI) GLOBIOM - Global Biosphere Management Model (IIASA) MOSAICC - Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change (FAO PEM - Policy Evaluation Model (OECD) MAGNET Modular Applied GeNeral Equilibrium Tool CARPRI - Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis PBL landuse model Data Sets FAO Stats IFPRI Datasets OECD agricultural Data African Growth and Development Policy modeling consortium (AGRODEP) World Bank Open Data UNdata WHO data repository National Statistics

19 Scenarios A description of how the future may unfold according to an explicit, coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces. Types of scenarios Predictive Explorative Normative (Backcasting)

20 Different ways of mapping scenarios Scenario Planning Guidance Note Foresight Horizon Scanning Centre, (UK) Government Office for Science

21 Examples of Scenarios

22 Influencing Change (Theories of change)

23 Exercise What is needed to improve the understanding, approaches and methodology for food systems foresight (5 key ideas) Write each ideas on a separate post-it note

24 Sharing Structure Purpose/Goal: Justification: Outcomes Activities Key Partners Necessary Resources: Minimalist Option Cash Kind Ideal Option Cash Kind Time Line Quick Wins Moblising Adding On

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