Urban Sustainability at regional level: Backcasting change in Cardiff City Region

Transcription

1 Urban Sustainability at regional level: Backcasting change in Cardiff City Region Carla De Laurentis Malcolm Eames, Miriam Hunt & Tim Dixon Retrofitting Cities for Tomorrow s World: Urban Sustainability Transitions to & 13 February 2014

2 Outline Re-Engineering the City Urban Foresight and Transition Management Our theoretical stance Backcasting Change: Scenarios for urban sustainability Retrofit 2050 participatory backcasting tool Regional grounding and visualisation Cardiff city region Futures Conclusion and Implication

3 Steering towards more sustainable futures Complex sustainability problems & complexity of cities Transitions theory (e.g. MLP) offers a helpful framework for analysing major socio-technical change Participatory approaches e.g. Transition Management and Participatory Backcasting Visioning -generating a picture of a desirable future- a useful methodology in drawing together relevant experts to structure problems, proffer suggestions and build networks; a focus for deliberation and learning Tool for purposefully shaping the direction and speed of urban transitions for sustainability

4 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Scenarios for urban sustainability: Retrofit 2050 Backcasting methodology Development of Retrofit 2050 Visions UK National Urban Foresight Panel Workshops Foresight Expert Reviews Urban Retrofit Roadmaps Retrofit City Futures: Visions for Urban Sustainability Analysis of unfolding regional context Regional case studies of urban retrofit governance (WP1) Desk-based reviews linking Retrofit 2050 visions with local context and drivers Scoping interviews -stakeholder expectations Regional grounding and visualisation City Regional Futures: stakeholder workshops - Cardiff/SE Wales, 17 May Greater Manchester, 17 June 2013 Cardiff City- Region Futures

5 The Retrofit 2050 Visions Vision I: Smart-Networked City: A hub within a highly mobile and competitive globally networked society Pervasive, information-rich virtual environments integrated with the physical world, driving efficiencies through automation with market oriented solutions. Vision II: Compact City: A site of intensive and efficient urban living Urban land-use and infrastructure provision are optimised into dense urban settlement forms to reduce demand and improve use of energy and resources. Vision III: Self Reliant-Green City: A self-reliant bio-region, living in harmony with nature A self-reliant system of circular metabolism, where resources are local, demand is constrained and the inputs and outputs of the city are connected (cradle to cradle).

6 The Retrofit 2050 Visions as Guiding-visions Retrofit 2050 Visions to highlight distinctive articulations of urban sustainability & describe what a sustainable future might look like Retrofit 2050 Visions as starting point to explore the future of core UK city regions but every city is to some extent unique and retrofit doesn t occur on a blank state real cities: natural and built environment, economic, social, political and demographic structures the diversity of values and interests, which will shape different expectations of the future within cities Use the Retrofit 2050 visions to explore the systemic urban retrofit of Greater Manchester and Cardiff/South East Wales.

7 Phase 3 Phase 2 Phase 1 Scenarios for urban sustainability: Retrofit 2050 Backcasting methodology Development of Retrofit 2050 Visions UK National Urban Foresight Panel Workshops Foresight Expert Reviews Urban Retrofit Roadmaps Retrofit City Futures: Visions for Urban Sustainability Analysis of unfolding regional context Regional case studies of urban retrofit governance (WP1) Desk-based reviews linking Retrofit 2050 visions with local context and drivers Scoping interviews -stakeholder expectations Regional grounding and visualisation City Regional Futures: stakeholder workshops - Cardiff/SE Wales, 17 May Greater Manchester, 17 June 2013 Cardiff City- Region Futures

8 The challenge: Future Trends Uncertainty: population in the city region by 2050? 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000, population 1,500,000 1,000, ,000 0

9 Devolved Building Regulations A pitch for Connected Cardiff in 2050 Over the last forty years, South East Wales, with Cardiff at its heart, has turned itself from a regional capital into a city region with global influence. The starting point was to invest very scarce public sector resources into much stronger collaboration between the knowledge sector and commerce. This helped foster business start ups, and in particular encourage entrepreneurship through the commercialisation of ideas. This generated over 500 billion of investment and governed by two new organisations, the first of which is a development corporation that has successfully managed the interface between economic development, environmental management and the knowledge sector. The second body formed was a single utility company, which brought together all the resource management issues that the region needed to manage in a world where resources were becoming scarcer.. Building on the success of the investment culture, we have invested heavily in Devolved Building Regulations our connectivity networks, ICT and broadband have been a focus, as has public transport, with an emphasis on personal rapid transit.

10 Devolved Building Regulations A pitch for Cardiff Smart-Networked city region in 2050 new business clusters develop in Swansea around life sciences, in the Heads of the Valleys around resource management and energy from waste, in Newport around media and ICT, and Cardiff, in the heart of the city region, providing the central business district for the region. This has enabled us to support our existing communities, build a sustainable, local economy, which has helped us to invest in high quality housing, good quality environments, health and social care services. We have Smart Grids across the region: a single Smart Grid system that combines all utilities, rather than the separate systems we had previously. Where do we go next? We continue to build, we continue to innovate, we now have the people resource within the region that can build on the success and we see that South East Wales, with Cardiff as its heart, will become more successful, building on the innovation sector. Devolved Building Regulations

11 Pathways to a Connected Cardiff in 2050

12 Cardiff City Futures Connected Cardiff A city-region with a vibrant economy focused on green technological solutions. Investment in the 2010s and 2020s created stronger collaboration between the knowledge sector and commerce to create business clusters that are internationally competitive. Efficiency is a key policy goal, with all utilities overseen by a single body to consider resource management issues in the face of scarcity. Economic growth has underpinned investment in high quality housing, environments and social care services. Compact/ Wilderness Cardiff A high density city-region made up of medium rise buildings based around boulevards and parks, with previously underused spaces now more densely populated. Distinctive villages within the city ensure a culturally rich region, connected by electrified rail and shared electric cars, while the rural hinterland is returned to wilderness and used for food and biomass crops. Extensive investment in the 20s, 30s and 40s included rebuilding of urban centres to mixed use development and energy, water and waste networks fit for a compact city. Orchard Cardiff City-Region Sustainability is at the heart of every policy decision made in the cityregion, with far greater dialogue between decision makers and communities. Planning decisions are much more connected to the needs of communities; academic research is focussed on useful, Devolved Building Regulations practical knowledge. Half of all food eaten is produced with the cityregion, with arable land in public spaces offering high employment, and hydroponics towers visible across the city. Priority is given to local energy production produced by community schemes, delivered through efficient networks.

13 key characteristics and indicative indicators for each Cardiff City Future Connected Cardiff Compact/ Wilderness Cardiff Orchard Cardiff City-Region Change in land-use and urban form Low moderate High High Continued suburbanisation Dense urban centres vs. re-wilding of Extensification of urban and periurban communities rural hinterland Social Values & Institutions Market and State play an important Communitarian and localist values Cooperative and communitarian values role in orienting values, with emphasis expressed at a city and neighbourhood co-exist and underpin new models of on private consumption. Networked level, coupled with strong local participation and shared ownership; the governance with regional government, governance and planning systems and regional government provides guidance public sector, local authority and an emphasis on social investment. and promotes a consensus around intermediary organisations acting as principle of urban metabolism. facilitators for business. Mutualism and local self-reliance are A culture of inclusiveness is promoted. coupled with strong concerns for social equity. Indicative population 2.75 million 2.25 million 1.75 million

14 Cardiff City Futures & Pathways of change Connected Cardiff Compact/ Wilderness Cardiff Orchard Cardiff Pressures: Resource constraints and retrofitting the built environment Technological innovation Green growth as response to climate change Continuation of long-term regional trends Climate change adaptation and mitigation Systemic ecological and economic crises Value shift in consumption and production paradigms Sustainability replaces growth as key driver Population change High Population growth Inward migration Moderate Population growth Internal re-distribution Population decline Outward migration Emerging Pathways (short to medium term) (medium to long term) ICT & broadband networks: Super connected city Smart City lab Growth of existing business clusters (media, ICT, resource management and energy, professional services) Electrification of Cardiff & Valleys lines Smart Metering and smart appliances Energy efficiency apps Urban energy, waste and water monitored centrally New businesses in the Heads of the Valleys Resource Management and energy from Waste Electrified transport system Shared car ownership & car free suburbs Development of urban heat networks (Cathays Park Civic Centre) Retrofit part of rolling maintenance Universal water metering and water management systems Renewable energy cooperatives Demolition programmes for hard to treat properties Managed retreat from coastal and upland areas Metro system Tidal Lagoons Barrages along the coast from Swansea Integrated Metro systemse Neighbourhood centred infrastructure for urban agriculture Electrification of Cardiff & Valleys lines Car free suburbs Local energy production and community based energy schemes Community owned renewable energy companies Retrofit as standard as part of rolling maintenance Private rented property minimum EPC C Retrofitting sustainable urban drainage systems Public landused for food production Hydroponic greenhouse towers 100 % rainwater harvesting Multi-utility super grids Metro system Cardiff Castle to become an Orchard and site of the biggest farmers market in Europe Modal shift from car to public transport (50:50) Pervasive small scale, low capital solutions for waste treatment and recycling Passive house is the norm Heat pumps in 30% of all homes Dynamics of change (governance system) Regional government investment in building innovation capacity allows city-region to become established as node in Global technological innovation systems Institutional and financial innovation allows adoption and deployment of low carbon technologies and infrastructure systems Bottom-up and grassroots innovations with local and regional government acting as enabler to facilitate social learning and community action.

15 Commonalities in the Retrofit 2050 Cardiff Futures Attractiveness and efficiency of the public transport infrastructure Development of an integrated Metro-style transport system that connects and support intra and inter regional mobility; Change in people s attitude that favour a modal shift in people's transport patterns towards walking and cycling; Regionally accountable financial system: to promote regional investments (to entail regional responsibilities and interests) Different institutions that govern this (regional development body through a system of regional investment funds and banks; regional partnerships & regional cooperatives and community ownerships)

16 Retrofit 2050 Cardiff Futures: Possibility space Compact/ Wilderness Cardiff Orchard Cardiff Connected Cardiff

17 Who s views, visions and interests?

18 Concluding remarks Retrofitting at scale and the problems faced are multi-sectoral and multi-level and require cooperation across normal boundaries; Stakeholders engagement: the research created a space of communication in which imagined futures could be both considered and populated. Providing opportunities for cross-sectoral dialogues; this, unfortunately, rare. The visioning and backcasting exercises: allowed to capture the diversity of possibilities for city-regions; use them as jumping off point and provided a rich picture of what a retrofit future Cardiff/SE Wales Importance of context and the challenge of understanding how the Retrofit 2050 visions touch down in specific regional contexts

19 Concluding remarks (2) The limitations: Stressed the importance of the diversity and inclusivity of participatory backcasting processes (homogeneous age group; very Cardiffian oriented) Irreducible uncertainty!

20 Thank you Carla De Laurentis Welsh School of Architecture Cardiff University tel