Chief consultant Henrik Noes Piester Danish Technological Institute OSHA Foresight workshop Bilbao 28th October 2008
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1 Trends & drivers of change in the European food and beverage industry Developing scenarios for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions Chief consultant Henrik Noes Piester Danish Technological Institute OSHA Foresight workshop Bilbao 28th October 2008
2 Agenda 1 Method: A trendbased approach to developing scenarios 2 Example: Scenarios for the European food and beverage industry 3 Strengths and Weaknesses 4 Conclusions 5 Questions
3 Scenarios Scenarios = alternative futures. Not looking into a crystal ball but platforms for reflection Stories of the inevitable and necessary recombined with the unpredictable and matters of choice (Ulrich Golüke) Many approaches to developing scenarios Scenarios describes the context in which the actor is situated
4 Backcasting and forecasting Image B IMAGE OF THE FUTURE A portrait of the state of affairs at a given point in time Now Where are we, what should we do... Histories Image A FUTURE HISTORY Description of a future course of events, often highlighting key events, decisions, or turning points Image C Ian Miles, PREST
5 The backbone of scenarios - drivers Different scenarios are created on the basis of drivers that are at the same time the most important, yet uncertain factors that influence the topic of the scenario exercise For instance: demography vs. consumer trends Often two drivers to keep things simple sometimes 2+ drivers to get more input to the development of scenarios Scenario development involves many choices (eg. selection of drivers) that may be questioned by the audience
6 Developing scenarios a trend based approach Data collection desk research, statistical data and interviews Analysing trends and identifying drivers of change Developing the scenarios Identifying implications and future challenges
7 Scenarios for the European food and beverage industry Developed for the European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions (Eurofound), Dublin DTI has carried out a range of sector studies for Eurofound incl. Textiles and clothing sector, Commerce sector, Biomedical sector, Transport and logistics Study on the European Food and Beverage Industry was carried out in
8 Trends and drivers of change Global migration European enlargement and the single market Global supply of skills Cost level in non- European ccountries Liberalisation of international trade Technological innovation Emergence of foreign competitors European Food and Beverage Industry New lifestyles and consumer trends Changing demographics in Europe New standards and regulation Economic growth rates Government and industry initiatives 8
9 5 drivers for the development of the food industry 1 The development of the World economy Positive or negative? 2 Consumer demand for niche products High or low? 3 Product and process innovation in the sector High or low innovation rate? 4 Globalisation of production and trade in the WTO agreements or sector 5 Government involvement in the promotion of healthy food habits Number of scenarios: 2*2*2*2*2 = 32 regional bi-lateral trade? Many or few initiatives? We choose three scenarios that were plausible, consistent and interesting
10 The Three Scenarios Rock Your Body Stayin Alive We are the World
11 The three scenarios The development of the World economy Rock Your Body Stayin Alive We are the World Consumer demand for high value-added products Product and process innovation in the sector Globalisation of production and trade Regional/bilateral Public support for healthy food habits Little involvement Active involvement Active involvement
12 Implications Overall situation of the sector Innovation Business strategy Value chain and location Employment and skills needs Main challenge for companies
13 Weaknesses Storytelling without substance? The preferred Darling or Devil in disguise Focus on existing trends and drivers of change may result in very conservative scenarios Developing good scenarios require in-depth knowledge of issue area and understanding of the policy context Difficult to connect the macro, meso and micro levels Emerging trends and knowing what we do not know (yet). The role of wild cards (ecological collapse in China, terrorist attacks etc.)
14 Strengths Structure and challenge existing world views on the basis of a holistic understanding Adds a creative dimension to strategy and policy development Focus strategic dialogue among stakeholders and help create consensus Awareness of potential future challenges scenarios constitute an early warning system Strategic outlook opportunity to ask the What If question
15 Conclusions Not rocket science A tool for structured and creative thinking about the future and as a catalyst for strategic conversations and discussions, but not as an end in itself. Challenges: Method may be challenged by participants, requires in-depth knowledge of issue area, and scenarios takes time
16 Questions?
17 Thank you! More information: Eurofound sector studies: Danish Technological Institute: Please contact Chief consultant Henrik Noes Piester
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