SCHEDULE 1. BACKCASTING AND WICKED PROBLEMS 2. CASE PRESENTATION: A BACKCASTING WORKSHOP 3. ARTICLE: WHOSE FUTURE? ROLE OF FACILITATORS IN

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1 SCHEDULE 1. BACKCASTING AND WICKED PROBLEMS 2. CASE PRESENTATION: A BACKCASTING WORKSHOP 3. ARTICLE: WHOSE FUTURE? ROLE OF FACILITATORS IN BACKCASTING WORKSHOP

2 BACKCASTING A COUNTING BACKWARDS WORKSHOP

3 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY STATE OF A FUTURE 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING) 5. ANALYZE (E.G. GATEKEEPERS) 6. IMPLEMENT

4 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY FUTURE STATES 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING)

5 ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING Monitoring and analyzing trends, weak signals, wild cards and drivers. Wide, holistic view: PESTEC

6 POLITICAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CULTURAL

7 Environmental scanning: brainstorming workshop

8 JOHANNES+GROUP POLITICAL ECONOMIC MARJUKKA+GROUP SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ALEKSI+GROUP ENVIRONMENTAL CULTURAL

9 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING Monitoring and analyzing trends, weak signals, wild cards and drivers to create wide, holistic view on the world around title of the futures work. POLITICAL ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING ON BOARDS ECONOMIC SOCIAL TECHNOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL CULTURAL

10 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY STATE OF A FUTURE 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING)

11 FUTURES TABLE A futures framework: a summary of variables and variable values

12 FUTURES TABLE Variable 1 Variable 2 Variable 3 Variable 4 Value 1a Value 2a Value 3a Value 4a Value 1b Value 2b Value 3b Value 4b Value 1c Value 3c Value 3d

13 KIDS FUTURES TABLE School Friends Parents Hobbies Study hard Lot s of friends Strict parents Do a lot of sports Study little Few good friends Not strict parents Do a lot of reading No friends Do both Do neither

14 LET S LOOK AT OUR FUTURES TABLE!

15 FUTURE OF WORK MOST IMPORTANT BUSINESS AUTOMATION AND IT RURAL - URBAN POPULATION FAMILY COHESION FOCUS IN EDUCATION Agriculture Creates formal employment Only marginal rural population Traditional big families Science Mining & Drilling Reduces jobs Big rural population, traditional farming Parents separated from families Creativity Manufacturing Enhances selfemployment Substantial rural population. New rules of income dominate rural areas Small nucleus families Applied science Creative / tourism industries

16 FUTURES TABLE

17 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY FUTURE STATES 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING)

18 KIDS FUTURES TABLE School Friends Parents Hobbies Study hard Lot s of friends Strict parents Do a lot of sports Study little Few good friends Not strict parents Do a lot of reading No friends Do both Do neither

19 KIDS FUTURES TABLE School Friends Parents Hobbies Study hard Lot s of friends Strict parents Do a lot of sports Study little Few good friends Not strict parents Do a lot of reading No friends Do both Do neither

20 LET S IDENTIFY FUTURE STATES IN OUR FUTURES TABLE!

21 FUTURE OF WORK MOST IMPORTANT BUSINESS AUTOMATION AND IT RURAL - URBAN POPULATION FAMILY COHESION FOCUS IN EDUCATION Agriculture Creates formal employment Only marginal rural population Traditional big families Science Mining & Drilling Reduces jobs Big rural population, traditional farming Parents separated from families Creativity Manufacturing Enhances selfemployment Substantial rural population. New rules of income dominate rural areas Small nucleus families Applied science Creative / tourism industries

22 FUTURE OF WORK MOST IMPORTANT BUSINESS AUTOMATION AND IT RURAL - URBAN POPULATION FAMILY COHESION FOCUS IN EDUCATION Agriculture Creates formal employment Only marginal rural population Traditional big families Science Mining & Drilling Reduces jobs Big rural population, traditional farming Parents separated from families Creativity Manufacturing Enhances selfemployment Substantial rural population. New rules of income dominate rural areas Small nucleus families Applied science Creative / tourism industries

23 WORK ON YOUR STATE OF A FUTURE!

24 3. IDENTIFY STATES OF A FUTURE States of a future describe the state of the topic in the end of the period. There are as many states of a future as many scenarios are done. FUTURES TABLE BACKCASTING TIMELINE BACKCASTING TIMELINES WITH STATES OF A FUTURE

25 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY FUTURE STATES 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING)

26 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY FUTURE STATES 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING)

27 BACKCASTING WITH GROUPS

28 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS Scenario paths are created with backcasting table. Varied, holistic picture is created to describe the changes happening during next 25 years in one scenario. BACKCASTING TIMELINE BACKCASTING TIMELINES WITH STATES OF A FUTURE AND SCENARIO PATHS

29 PRESENTING SCENARIOS

30 SCENARIO PATHS MAKE AGRICULTURE DECENT WORK CREATIVITY IS THE KEY ARE DIAMONDS REALLY COUNTRY S BEST FRIEND!

31 On job training for farming professionals Investments to water and power infrastructure in mid-sized towns. Social security and public health improvements to old people Tanzanian food manufacturing success stories Large automated farms Agriculture is Decent Work Educational programs on E-agriculture President of Tanzania announces that all the effort is put to increase mining. Talented and creative young people are searched for in school programs Phillips starts production in Tanzania. Mining towns grow as mining corporations are forced to increase services, Security situation in Tanzania gets bad. New professors appear in all the universities. Are Diamonds Really Country s Best Friends? Tanzanian musician wins Oscar awards Talent Clubs and national theatres were talented people meet Long distance online learning, also in homes All the First discipline successful specific school: people live in ICT school cities to meet other cool people Tanzanian IT apps, sport apps, musicians and film makers are known worldwide Creativity is the Key

32 MAKE AGRICULTURE DECENT WORK

33 AGRICULTURE IS A DECENT WORK In 2040, due to technological changes, agriculture is like any other job: farmers work on work days. There are more manufacturers in Tanzania to increase the added value in products. Tanzania is not just producing maize but also many small industries manufacture something out of it. Change of living culture: a lot more middle size houses in small villages that become safe, healthy middle sized towns. ICT and automation enable very IT-intensive agriculture Families living together are still large, but there are less children. Aging population lives with younger generations, thanks to better social security and new kind of loan system. New education models

34 CREATIVITY IS THE KEY

35 CREATIVITY IS THE KEY In 2040, wide range of creative industries, such as music, online film, sports, apps, from which Tanzania is globally known for. Also combinations of these creative industries. Lot of people with very high level of IT and programming skills East Africa is a peaceful region with a lot of collaboration between countries Online schools: lot of home schooling and lot of flexibility to teachers Young people are very disconnected to old people: many rural towns have large population of old people Cities are incredible huge but still sustainable.

36 ARE DIAMONDS REALLY COUNTRY S BEST FRIEND?

37 DIAMONDS COUNTRY S BEST FRIEND? In 2040, mining is big industry in Tanzania. There are less gold in Tanzania and rare earth minerals become more important. Mining knowledge is a big export sector as well. Rural population increases in two ways. There are mining towns around mines. There are sustenance farming in traditional villages. Mining towns grow because there is a claim that mining rights are legally tight to better systems. Investment in science is important. Very high scientific education. The school system benefits top talents. Society is very meritocratic: high employed people work in the mining industry and research. Families break apart, because not everyone lives in mining towns. Philips and Samsung have production lines in Tanzania.

38 CREATIVITY IS THE KEY Wide range of creative industries, such as music, online film, sports, apps, from which Tanzania is globally known for. Also combinations of these creative industries. Lot of people with very high level of IT and programming skills East Africa is a peaceful region with a lot of collaboration between countries Online schools: lot of home schooling and lot of flexibility to teachers Young people are very disconnected to old people: many rural towns have large population of old people Cities are incredible huge but still sustainable. AGRICULTURE IS A DECENT WORK Agriculture is like any other job: farmers work on work days. There are more manufacturers in Tanzania to increase the added value in products. Tanzania is not just producing maize but also many small industries manufacture something out of it. Change of living culture: a lot more middle size houses in small villages that become safe, healthy middle sized towns. ICT and automation enable very IT-intensive agriculture Families living together are still large, but there are less children. Aging population lives with younger generations, thanks to better social security and new kind of loan system. New education models DIAMONDS COUNTRY S BEST FRIEND? Mining is big factor in Tanzania. There are less gold in Tanzania and rare earth minerals become more important. Mining knowledge is a big export sector as well. Rural population increases in two ways. There are mining towns around mines. There are sustenance farming in traditional villages. Mining towns grow because there is a claim that mining rights are legally tight to better systems. Investment in science is important. Very high scientific education. The school system benefits top talents. Society is very meritocratic: high employed people work in the mining industry and research. Families break apart, because not everyone lives in mining towns. Philips and Samsung have production lines in Tanzania.

39 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY STATE OF A FUTURE 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING) 5. ANALYZE (E.G. GATEKEEPERS) 6. IMPLEMENT

40 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY FUTURE STATES 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING) 5. ANALYZE (E.G. GATEKEEPERS) 6. IMPLEMENT

41 GATEKEEPERS Who can start or stop the change towards a future described in a specific scenario? Someone is always responsible for making the good decision. But it might not be clear to him or her that they are responsible.

42 LET S SEARCH FOR GATEKEEPERS IN SCENARIOS

43 MAKE AGRICULTURE DECENT WORK GATEKEEPERS Small industries that improve the manufacturing level of agricultural products Makers of new agricultural technology both in Tanzania and abroad Family planning organizations and policy makers etc.

44 CREATIVITY IS THE KEY GATEKEEPERS Young creative industry superstars that are interlinked with global art, music, and software industries Teachers (Negative) role models in regard to taking good care of the elderly Politicians responsible for making smarter cities etc etc.

45 ARE DIAMONDS REALLY COUNTRY S BEST FRIEND! GATEKEEPERS Local companies searching for rare earth minerals. Makers of the mining laws. Education and study curriculum planners. Road (and other) infrastructure builders to connect small mining towns. etc.

46 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY STATE OF A FUTURE 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING) 5. ANALYZE (E.G. GATEKEEPERS) 6. IMPLEMENT

47 1. ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING (PESTEC) 2. CONTRUCT FUTURES TABLE 3. IDENTIFY STATE OF A FUTURE 4. CREATE SCENARIO PATHS (BACKCASTING) 5. ANALYZE (E.G. GATEKEEPERS) 6. IMPLEMENT

48 WHAT WAS THE MOST IMPORTANT OUTCOME TODAY?