dynaklim Integrated roadmapping to shape adaptation processes in metropolitan areas

Transcription

1 dynaklim Integrated roadmapping to shape adaptation processes in metropolitan areas Jens U. Hasse FiW Research Institute for Water and Waste Management at RWTH Aachen University Martin Birke, Michael Schwarz sozialforschungsstelle Dortmund/ Technical University Dortmund Resilient Cities Bonn, Germany 3-5 June 2011

2 The Project region:the river basins of Emscher and Lippe Emschergenossenschaft Lippeverband area (km 2 ) 865 3,280 Inhabitants (million) Inhabitants per km 2 2,

3 Some facts and figures about dynaklim One of only seven regional projects in the framework of the KLIMZUG programme of BMBF Project duration: Project turn-over: Methodology: July June 2014 (5 years) million Euro, thereof 12.0 million financed by BMBF Research, pilot projects, joint implementation cross-sectoral regional cooperation, involvement of various regional actors, network building,

4 Participants' view of the region The focus on the central "Ruhrgebiet" and the larger cities continues Perception of the project region as a natural river basin affected by climate change is difficult from the point of view of participants Perception of the general public: Low level of political expertise in complex planning and problem solving Understanding of regional multi-level-government and governance is limited in the general public as well in wide parts of corporate sector However, knowledge that "something is happening with the climate" exists Financing and legal frameworks are not the only hindrances for action Benefits and significance of cooperation between large and small local governments/communities not clear or not (enough) appreciated by leaders and decision-makers

5 What is a roadmap? an extended look at the future of a chosen field of inquiry composed from the collective knowledge and imagination of the brightest drivers of change in that field. [ ] the inventory of possibilities for a particular field. (Galvin, R., 1998) helps building consense among stakeholders about focal points and directions of modernisation(= change, adaptation, innovation), leading to an integrating vision (or strategy) shared by all stakeholders as a meta document, the sheath of all activities and measures developed and implemented to pursue the modernisation strategy a visualisation of the future integrating all relevant aspects.

6 From a science & technology roadmap (to find out how to respond to a changing market environment) drives, requires supports, enables Market Products Technology Process People What is required by the customers andhow? Which packaging of technologies into products fulfills the customers needs? Which technologies are available? Which technological trends are relevant? Which processes are required to realize the products and technologies? Whatkindofandhowmanypeopleare required to realize the products and technologies? Marketing Architect People and technology manager Time perspective: 5 years Source: Muller, G., 2008

7 to an integrated roadmap Regional Adaptation (to find out how to respond as a region to internal and external changes) market products technology process people the entire region and its economic, social, ecological, technological and cultural environment appropriate strategies and measures of the region for pro-active and anticipating adaptation appropriate technologies, innovations: new thinking; better knowledge; other concepts + attitudes; alternative processes + technical solutions + application development of new adaptation technology as part of roadmap development and implementation Adaptation initiators, activists + entrepreneurs Time perspective:

8 The IZT concept of the integrated roadmapping Collaborative Heute Einflussfaktoren Zukunft Process-orientated Veränderungspotentiale Herausforderungen Gesellschaft Technologien Wirtschaft Politik Umwelt Technologie Anwendungen Produkte Branchen Extrapolation Retropolation Trendanalyse Zukunftsbilder Integrative Märkte Roadmap Quelle: IZT 2006 Iterative + reflexive

9 Why roadmapping in the context of climate adaptation? Roadmapping as a tool for strategic forecast and planning analyses probable or foreseeable development trends, compares them with possible or required development routes, develops future strategies, development plans and actions programs, and translates them into specific aims, schedules and responsibilities. Roadmapping as a cooperation and learning process explores, how they are realised in planning and can be effective in practice, which and whose resources and competencies are necessary, which uncertainties, risks and faults might occur? how the implementation process can be organised in clear, practical sequences.

10 The dynaklim Roadmap 2020 Regional Adaptation Strategy is the agenda, action and development program for regional climate adaptation, creates / contains regional adaptation scenarios (under consideration of regional trends and development programs), formulates the (sector specific and comprehensive) adaptation routewith requirements analysis, priorities and competency profiles, integrates different stakeholder groups, knowledge levels and typesand generatates knowledge for action, ends in a strategy and measures schedule with specific aims, time frames, responsibilities, catalogue of measures and resource requirements.

11 Success factors of roadmapping Successful roadmapping relies on The adequacy of the subject to the linked techniques of future prognosis, of strategy development and knowledge management, Permanent cooperation from experts from various academic areas and key stakeholders from the region (and beyond), Practice and problem orientated development and implementation of future scenarios and innovation strategies with realisable agenda setting, achieveable intermediate targets and specific perspectives for success, Constant practical dialogus, offensive interests moderationand strong resource project management.

12 The dynaklim roadmap phases The roadmap steering group and the dynaklim platforms (= thematic working groups) Define the actions and guide targets, Bundle knowledge levels and types, Identify gaps in knowledge and requirements, Establish existing overall concepts Develop scenarios and overall concepts, Identify adaptation requirements and routes (who can, knows, wants or may take action?) "SCOPING" "FORECASTING" Assess and specify adaptation paths Draft specific solution approaches "BACKCASTING" Turn the results into strategy and measures schedules ROADMAPPING ( compiling the roadmap ) Bundling and transferring of results => Regional adapation strategy and work agenda

13 Identified fields of action for climate adaptation roadmapping Finance and insurance business Town and housing development Regional planning + administration Environm. medicine, health managm. Industry, producing trades Tourism, recreation Regional water management + water infrastructure Agriculture and forestry management, fishing Transport, logistics Energy, disposal, waste Nutrition, food industry Strategic fields of action by DAS and NRW economic politics - Spatial and settlement planning - Health (medicine, bio-tech) - Transport and logistics systems -Building - Agriculture and forestry - Energy management - Disaster protection - Industry (materials development) - Nature conservation -Mining - Finance and insurance business - Environmental management

14 Roadmapping 2012/ 2020 is the strategic process of the project region Emscher-Lippe-Ruhr to develop and- over years - continuously refine a Regional Climate Adaptation Strategy

15 Short wrap-up and conclusions Knowledge, skills interests and expectations Roadmap 2020 Structured knowlege, common goals, "ownership" of participants for process, clarity and on "what", "who"and "when" Trust dynaklim network Regional Governance Regional climate adapation strategy

16 Decade projects as drivers for regional cooperation and development Run-up to Climate EXPO 2020 Complete recovery of the Emscher river system

17 Your contact persons Research Institute for Water and Waste Management at RWTH Aachen (FiW) e.v. Jens U. Hasse Coordinator dynaklim Mies-van-der-Rohe-Str Aachen Phone Sozialforschungsstelle Dortmund (sfs) ZWE of Technical University Dortmund Martin Birke Coordinator Roadmapping 2020 Evinger Platz Dortmund Phone

18 The regional water cycle is the focus of dynaklim

19 Uncertainty and insecurity in the field of climate adaptation Uncertain climate consequences Which climate consequences of climate change will result where and to which extent is just a prediction that can be detected and validated successively and approximately. Long and distant planning horizonts The spectrum of time horizons viewed as necessary extends, depending on a disciplinary or sectoral viewpoint, to 2015, 2020 and through to 2050 or even Ambiguous aims and target conflict There are so many consequences of climate change that the respective adaptation strategies may clash under some circumstances. Ambiguous constellation of heterogeneous participant groups and individual players Depending on the unclear climate consequences for differently affected participants and those with different interests in climate adaptation, there are ambiguous sets of interests. This complicates both the anticipatory moderation of interest conflicts and the anticipatory arrangement of cooperation.

20 Work in the dynaklim network

21 Generating future knowledge from various viewpoints

22 dynaklim- regional competency network + its development phases Partners and project integration, regional platforms New partners, project work, roadmap, regional positioning "Critical partner size", roadmap, regional factor Roadmap, continuation, institutionalisation from dynaklim

23 The dynaklim work stages V Platform Networking, participation, civil society Network and knowlege management R Roadmap 2020 "Regional climate adaptation" Initiate Work together Implement sustainably development W I F P Water management Platform Climate focussed business Innovation and competition capacity Financing and organisation Platform Planning, administration and politics Politics, planning and administration Platform "Water" * Platform Organisation + financing * "Water management, infrastructure and technologies"

24 The dynaklim roadmap architecture Economy dynaklim platform Regional platform business+industry dynaklim AB 5 / E 5.1 dynaklim platform Water management dynaklim AB 3,4 E ROADMAP FOCUS GROUP dynaklim platform Politics+administra tion dynaklim AB 7 / E 7.1 Politics dynaklim platform Financing+ organisation dynaklim platform Civil society Academics dynaklim AB 6 / E 6.1/2 dynaklim AB 2 / E 2.1 Civil society dynaklim network

25 The five steps of roadmapping

26 Critical for success: sustainable dialogue with participants and experts Workshops Learning laboratories Expert interviews Online survey Delphi survey - Trend analysis - Future scenarios - Assessment of options - Route analyses (feasability, ressources requirement and competencies) - Measures, agenda setting Source: IZT, Behrendt 2010, sfs

27 Roadmap effect features Collaborative The whole roadmap process is worked on in all phases and work stages by all experts and stakeholders together and equally. Integrative Various viewpoints, interests, investigation sizes and methods are considered systematically and problem-orientated so that technological, economic, social and society developments can be analysed and arranged in interaction and with the possible added consequences. Process orientated The roadmap process does not stop at plan targets and action specifications, but is orientated toward participatory implementation and is therefore arranged consistently as an open result search and learning process in its instruments, contents and work phases. Iterative-reflexive Even if the roadmap process is reliant on elaborate working structures, instruments and methods, it is not planned and implemented as linear, rigid and sequential, but in small steps, checking the intermediate results and with regular feedback from all participating players.

28 The role of platforms in the roadmap process