IRAHSS Pre-symposium Report

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1 30 June 15 IRAHSS Pre-symposium Report SenseMaker - Emergent Pattern Report prepared by: Cognitive Edge Pte Ltd

RPO organises the International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS), which aims to promote active dialogue on risk assessment and horizon scanning concepts, methods and

2 RPO organises the International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium (IRAHSS), which aims to promote active dialogue on risk assessment and horizon scanning concepts, methods and technologies, as well as provide the opportunity for Singapore to share about RAHS with an international audience. IRAHSS 2015 was held on 7 th and 8 th July 2015, and it had a special sense-making component, which was organised in collaboration with Cognitive Edge, called Crowdsensor.

VISION Leading Centre of Expertise in Strategic Anticipation for National Security MISSION Enhance policymaking capabilities through engaging analyses, robust processes, and leading-edge systems The

3 VISION Leading Centre of Expertise in Strategic Anticipation for National Security MISSION Enhance policymaking capabilities through engaging analyses, robust processes, and leading-edge systems The Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) programme was launched in 2005, as part of the National Security Coordination Secretariat (NSCS). The RAHS programme explores methods and tools that complement scenario planning in anticipating strategic issues with significant possible impact on Singapore. With the help of our international partners, as well as through experimentation, the RAHS Programme has developed an extensive range of processes that enables agencies to collect, analyse, inform, model and monitor emerging strategic issues. These processes are supported by a wide range of products that enable analysts to better perform their roles. This includes the RAHS software platform which is specifically designed and developed with capabilities to support research and analysis using information extraction and visualisation, modelling and survey tools. Armed with the processes and products, the RAHS team has been actively engaging government agencies, academic institutions and international partners through training, consultancy and joint projects. These projects generally explore emerging issues with the aim of enhancing strategic anticipation capabilities for the agencies. For more information about the RAHS Programme Office, please visit our website at or us at rahs@nscs.gov.sg

4 Foreword Note: In this report you will find observations of patterns in the data and interpretations / ideas related to them. The interpretations are meant to stimulate thought and discussion related to the research objective. Much of the outputs of this report are intended to be used with workshop session for sense-making of the unstructured data (stories) and semi-structured meta-data that has been gathered using Cognitive Edge s proprietary signification method. The observations, interpretations, and ideas are not meant as answers or claims of any sort. Many if not all are naive and focused on patterns only or a thematic review of the stories behind identified patterns. While some observations and interpretations may either compliment or contradict other earlier observations or interpretations - this is either deliberate or a part of the scanning process; its purpose is to assist groups in acknowledging the complexity, contradictions, and diversity about interpretive patterns related to stories. Please note that although the sample achieved in this study may not be a statistically significant sample size, meaningful insights can be obtained. However validation of such insights should be developed by achieving further data capture. One of the objectives of this project is to present narrative research utilising Cognitive Edge s methodology. This sense-making exercise will enable the RAHS Programme Office to tap into the collective intelligence of a selected network of experts, to gather insights into emergent strategic issues for the future. This project is meant to enable RAHS to experiment with this novel analytical approach, as presented by gathering the views of multiple stakeholders in an instantaneous feedback loop. This will allow the Authority to assess the value of this sense-making technique, and understand how best to build this component into its existing suite of tools going forward. This exercise builds on established capability and technology. A unique set of partners with Foresight expertise and established experience in application of SenseMaker were identified in this experiment, and a design tailored for Foresight and Futures-oriented crowdsourcing was utilised.

5 Contents of report Design of Study 4 Summary of Findings: Panel 1. Applying Foresign in Organisations 9 Panel 2. Developing capabilities for Sense-making 10 Panel 3a. The Future of Work 11 Panel 3b. The Future of Transport 12 Panel 4. Big Shifts in Future Global Issues 13 Index of Appendices (Individual Panel reports) 14 report end 15

6 Design of Study Methodology Data was collected from a pre-symposium data gathering phase, which took place over 3 weeks, and across 4 panels: (1) Applying Foresight in Organisations; (2) Developing capabilities for Sense-making; (3a) The Future of Work; (3b) The Future of Transport; and (4) Big Shifts in Future Global Issues. The study was sent to IRAHSS participants and mailing lists, together with a network of Foresight and Futures specialists assembled by Cognitive Edge and partners. Additional collection was also conducted for Panel 3a by the RPO, with a group of pre-university students. Paul Saffo was also involved in recruiting from across the US Foresight community. RPO also extended the invitation to Foresight practitioners across the Singapore government Source of sample IRAHSS participants, IRAHSS mailing list, curated Foresight network, preuniversity students recruited by RPO and Foresight practitioners from Singapore government Achieved sample 252 items in total: Panel 1-49 items; Panel 2-26 items; Panel 3a - 81 items; Panel 3b - 38 items; Panel 4-58 items Capture period 8 to 26 June 2015 NOTE: the data presented is story-centric meaning that all figures are related to stories contributed in reviewing the data that is demographic, even thought it is presented as story occurrences an assumption is made that the majority of respondents have entered one story demographic data presented on a per narrative basis indicates the diversity (or homogeneity) of the perspectives represented by the narrative data set.

7 Design of Study : Panel questions This study features a core set of descriptive signifiers (unique indexes) designed to fit the theme of the Symposium, Connecting Foresight, Policy and Practice - with an emphasis on Emerging Strategic Issues in 2025 and New Foresight Capabilities. The concepts for this core set of indexes form a common polymorphic core, with unique prompting questions that were designed for each individual panel at IRAHSS 2015, to cover the individual issues identified for each panel and break-out session: (1) Applying foresight in organisations, (2) Developing capabilities for sense-making, (3a) The future of work, (3b) The future of transport and (4) Analysing big shifts in future global issues. Making use of the design, all participants were invited to contribute micro-scenarios to the system around specific topics (on a weekly cadence) through prompts. These questions shifted from week to week, and were staggered to cover all 5 topics over a 3 week period. Weekly newsletters accompanied the prompts to participate. The following pages in this section discuss the individual signifiers with more detail. The prompting questions for all 5 panels were: Panel 1: Applying Foresight in Organisations Describe a project you have done in the area of foresight from which you have learnt the most. Describe the processes or tools used? Panel 2: Developing Capabilities in Sense-making Thinking about a project you have done in the area of foresight from which you learnt the most - describe the type of tools or processes you would have liked to have. Panel 3a: The Future of Work Describe what children in 2030 will be studying, and their career aspirations. Panel 3b: The Future of Transport Describe how we will be traveling in Panel 4: Big Shifts in Global Issues In your imagined world, describe a scenario that takes place which brings about a paradigm shift.

Design of Study : Stones On the vertical scale, the Stones canvas was designed to depict the iceberg metaphor - with the iceberg representing the different layers of Causal Layered Analysis - popular

The actual stones - Industry Response, Government Response and Public Response - help to depict which level each entity has been tackling the issues discussed in the panels, and examples shared; and

8 Design of Study : Stones On the vertical scale, the Stones canvas was designed to depict the iceberg metaphor - with the iceberg representing the different layers of Causal Layered Analysis - popular buzz (litany); technical explanations (analytic/systems perspective); worldview (values); and metaphors/images (myths). The actual stones - Industry Response, Government Response and Public Response - help to depict which level each entity has been tackling the issues discussed in the panels, and examples shared; and at what level of CLA each occupy. On the horizontal scale, the Stones canvas was designed to understand how prepared, and how seriously each entity has been regarding issues discussed in the panels. Problems / Symptoms Industry Response Government Response Public Response Response indicates no worry Causes Values / Worldview Myths & Metaphors Response indicates worry Figure 1. Stones canvas as administered in study Figure 2. The conceptual background for analysis of Stones canvas

Design of Study : Triads gaining traction just emerging been around maintain the current state build new systems imagine new possibilities a person on the street a technical expert an inspirational

9 Design of Study : Triads gaining traction just emerging been around maintain the current state build new systems imagine new possibilities a person on the street a technical expert an inspirational leader community/groups T1. S-curve - This signifier tests for Awareness of issues, in particular focusing on where ideas or changes sit within a general life cycle of change of an S-curve - depicting the emergence of a change. SenseMaker has often been used as a 'distributed intelligence' system for augmenting expert-based scanning by picking up weak signals of change, opinion and value shifts, etc. This allows us to catch novel ideas as emergent trends. The background concepts for the apices can be understood as Very Early - Rapidly Developing - Mature. T2. Critique & Mindset - How do we begin to sort trends, emerging changes, and ideas about the future, and parse them into patterns? A framework gaining increasing traction and popularity within the futures field to sort stories about trends, emerging issues and ideas about change, is Sharp s Three Horizons Framework. The framework discusses three different mindsets: is it to maintain traditional structures and the current state of play? (focussed on maintaining stability) - Is it to build new structures and systems? (focussed on building new value) Or is it to design entirely new possibilities? (focussed on imagining novel transformation) T3. Constraints - This signifier connects more general stories about change and the future to the overall structure of Causal Layered Analysis (very popular critical futures approach, widely used in Asia and the Pacific, growing in use in Europe). It attempts to understand the tone of narrative that are in place - System/technical Explanations - Popular Buzz - Myths or metaphors. T4. Change Agents - This signifier tests for the agency which drives changes described in the examples. Is the locus of action and awareness the - Self - Community - Society individual/self society

10 Design of Study : Dyads We will encounter unexpected commonplace D1. Preparedness - This dyad tests for the level of scanning and awareness of emerging change, and criticises the change impact, and ability of systems and agents to deal with changes. How prepared are we to deal with this? This is a foresight concept dealing with black swans - commonplace/expected elements. Environment is out of our control shaped by humans D2. Environment - This dyad tests for the control over design of systems and environment that we should assume for planning purposes. How much are we capable of controlling environmental factors, and to what extent can we build future-oriented environment and systems? What do we have to account for to maintain agility in the system? How are things out of our control - shaped by humans. Future is driven by human capability total automation D3. Automation - This dyad looks at the interface between technology, automation and artificial intelligence, and human cognition and capability. How much can we automate? How can we design intelligent systems - and where are the areas where human capability is more important than algorithms and automation?

11 Summary of Findings - Panel 1: Applying Foresight in Organisations Panel 1 received a total of 49 entries in the Pre-Symposium data gathering. Data gathered from this panel will draw largely from Foresight and Futures practitioners who will find relevance in sharing projects and case studies of previous applications of tools and processes. Most of the examples and ideas discussed were Positive in emotional tone, and seen as Quite likely to occur. The Public sector was most heavily represented, closely followed by the Private sector. The practitioners tended to be Executive level. Majority had 20 years experience or more. Most of the entries came from Asia, followed by North America. The general perspective is that Public response to issues tend to address more superficial symptoms, with varying levels of worry. Industry and Government responses were seen as addressing deeper causes, but with some addressing issues in both a superficial and careless manner. Most of the examples describe ideas which have been around for awhile - which is not surprising considering the question asks for recollection of applications. However, some examples discuss current uses of more emergent and rapidly developing approaches which could represent novel approaches. The desire in general, is for novel approaches - and new imaginations of possibilities. Examples tended to be described in a manner that can be easy for practitioners, laymen or leaders to understand - although there is a slight skew toward more technical explanations. Change is described as largely driven by community/group, and less by individuals or wider society. The future of work is seen as being Shaped and controlled by humans, and depend on Human capability - and to contain some unexpected elements.

12 Summary of Findings - Panel 2: Developing Capabilities for Sense-making Panel 2 received a total of 26 entries in the Pre-Symposium data gathering. Data gathered from this panel will draw largely from Foresight and Futures practitioners - this study was largely geared toward understanding the types of tools and processes that practitioners hoped to see in the future. Most of the examples and ideas discussed were Positive in emotional tone, and seen as Very likely to occur. The Private sector was most heavily represented, closely followed by the Public sector. The practitioners tended to be either Executive or Senior Management level. Majority had 20 years experience or more. Most of the entries came from North America, followed by Australia/New Zealand. The response levels were higher for Industry, and few Public responses were placed. This is not surprising as the question asks for practitioner specific input. Industry and Government responses were seen as addressing more superficial issues. Most of the examples describe ideas for tools and processes which are just emerging - and some discuss tools that are rapidly developing. The desire in general, is for novel approaches - and new imaginations of possibilities. Examples tended to be described in an aspirational manner - again, not surprising given the nature of the prompt. Change is described as largely driven by community/ group, and less by individuals or wider society. Some stories are indexed toward Popular buzz and Technical expert which could represent interesting weak signals. The developing of sense-making capabilities is seen as being Shaped and controlled by humans, and depend on Human capability - and to contain some unexpected elements.

13 Summary of Findings - Panel 3a: The Future of Work Panel 3a received the most number of responses across all the panels - with 81 entries. In conducting collection for Panel 3a, the design included sampling from pre-university students to understand the aspirations of the younger generation. This report filters responses by Experience levels - breaking them down by Pre-university students, individuals in the first 5 years to 20 years of work, and individuals with more than 20 years of experience. Most of the examples and ideas discussed were Positive in emotional tone, and seen as Quite likely to occur. The Private sector was most heavily represented, with those with 20 years experience or more contributing the strongest perspective. Most of the entries came from Asia and North America. The general perspective is that Government and Public response to the issues tended to address more superficial symptoms, but with deeper concern over issues. Industry response was seen as addressing deeper causes, but with pre-university students indicating that Industry appears less worried. Most of the changes described tended to be ideas which are Rapidly developing, with some in the more Early stages of emergence. This is corroborated by the indication that the general mindset is a balance between that of Building new systems and Imagining new possibilities. System explanations tended to represent the dominant mode of thinking and description in examples - with most ideas being discussed in the tone of a technical expert. This is balanced with smaller patterns of indexing toward aspirational descriptions (an inspirational leader). Change is described as largely driven by a balance of agents, but with pre-university students indexing more strongly toward Society. Those with 20 years experience or more tended to indicate that change would come more from a balance and collaboration between individuals and community. The future of work is seen as being Shaped and controlled by humans, and depend on Human capability - and to contain more unexpected elements.

14 Summary of Findings - Panel 3b: The Future of Transport The total number of responses collected for Panel 3b was 38. The prompting question asks for visions on how travel will take place in Most of the examples and ideas discussed were Positive in emotional tone, and seen as Very likely to occur. The Private sector was most heavily represented, with those with 20 years experience or more contributing the strongest perspective. Most of the entries came from Asia and North America. High levels of worry are registered across Industry, Government and Public, but with the Industry seen as addressing issues at a level just below the surface, and Government seen as going deeper into the issue in their responses. Most of the changes described tended to be ideas which are fairly balanced in terms of where they sit along the S-curve. However, most display a bias toward ides which are Rapidly developing. This is corroborated by the indication that the general mindset is a balance between that of Building new systems and Imagining new possibilities. A balance between Technical/System explanations and Popular buzz (a person on the street) tended to represent the dominant mode of description in examples Change is described as largely driven by a balance of agents - but with different agents seen as being more instrumental in various areas The future of transport is seen as being strongly influenced and Shaped by humans, and Automation - and to contain some unexpected elements.

15 Summary of Findings - Panel 4: Big Shifts in Future Global Issues Panel 4 received a total of 58 entries. In asking for various imaginations of the future, the entries from this panel represent the most thematically diverse of examples and descriptions across all panels. Panel 4 examples were generally positive in emotional tone, but displays the highest numbers of negative entries across all panels (23.2% Negative, and 8.9% Very negative). Entries tended to be described as Quite likely to occur. Private and Public sectors were most well represented, with Executives sharing the most entries, followed by middle Management. Majority of respondents have 20 years or more of experience. North America, followed by Australia/New Zealand contributed the most entries. The general perspective is that Government in particular tends to response to issues in a way which addresses more underlying causes. The Public is seen as having superficial concerns but with high levels of worry. Most of the changes described tended to be ideas which are just emerging or rapidly developing. This is corroborated by the indication that the general mindset is to imagine new possibilities - and to also balance this with building new systems. Most of the entries tended to discuss issues with a technical/system explanation tone, and to a lesser extent as a person on the street. There is a lack of more aspirational tones in the descriptions. Change is described as largely driven by Society, and to a lesser extent by Community/Groups. There were very few stories indexed toward Individual/Self. There is a strong perception that situations will present black swans and unexpected events. The environment will be shaped by human control, and be influenced largely by human capability rather than automation.

16 Index of Appendices Panel 1. Applying Foresign in Organisations Appendix 1 Panel 2. Developing capabilities for Sense-making Appendix 2 Panel 3a. The Future of Work Appendix 3a Panel 3b. The Future of Transport Appendix 3b Panel 4. Big Shifts in Future Global Issues Appendix 4

17 cognitive-edge.com

RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight

RAHS: A Systematic Process of Foresight Chew Lock Pin Director Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) Programme Office National Security Coordination Secretariat Prime Minister s Office Singapore