Commercial Forecast. Cushman & Wakefield Aki Palmer. Brinkman Jay Hardy. Tuesday, March 27, 2018

Size: px

Start display at page:

Download "Commercial Forecast. Cushman & Wakefield Aki Palmer. Brinkman Jay Hardy. Tuesday, March 27, 2018"

Piers James
5 years ago
Views:

1 Commercial Forecast Cushman & Wakefield Aki Palmer Brinkman Jay Hardy Tuesday, March 27, 2018

2 Office, retail, industrial and multifamily space is filling up throughout Northern Colorado. We ll take a look at the latest vacancy statistics and lease rates, major leases/sales, trends/shifts and a forecast for 2018 & beyond.

3 Rent vs. Vacancy Office Overall

4 Market Rate by Class Office Rents

5 Notable Lease Transactions >14,000 SF Office 3405 South Timberline Road Fort Collins 2620 East Prospect Road Fort Collins 102,000 SF 5200 Hahns Peak Drive Loveland 30,227 SF 242 Linden Street Fort Collins 23,287 SF 14,392 SF

6 Rent vs. Vacancy Retail Overall

2017-2018 Notable Lease Transactions >15,000 SF Retail 4114-4210 Centerplace Drive Greeley

7 Notable Lease Transactions >15,000 SF Retail Centerplace Drive Greeley 425 S. College Avenue Fort Collins 42,027 SF 25,810 SF Foothills Mall Fort Collins 30,000 SF

8 Store Closures 7 locations closed since July 2017 No relocations released* *Those who cannot renegotiate leases are likely out All closed 18 closings in CO 200 closures coming CO stores closed in to close in 2018, locations not released CO locations safe for now All stores closing nationally List of locations not released 3 closures in CO Greeley Mall Sears closing CO Springs Kmart closing Final Year for all? List of locations not released 4 closures in CO CO locations safe for now List of locations not released List of locations not released

9 Store Expansions Finally coming to CO 2 nd CO location (Broomfield) coming in 2019 Opening 2 eyeware stores in Denver Formerly 100% online 3 rd CO Springs store coming in May Doing exceedingly well, expected to collectively add several hundred stores across the country in Dollar General to open 900 in To open 100 stores in ,000 SF Johnstown location expected to quickly fill the surrounding 1 MSF Opening store in Parker, CO 4 new locations in CO in 2018 for a total of 18 2 current dispensaries with plans to create a franchise system and grow to 50 locations over next 3 years

10 2018 & Beyond Forecast Experience Retail Big box short-term pain with boxes shrinking and becoming more efficient Restaurants, entertainment, fitness, healthcare Community and neighborhood centers are staying strong Restaurant sales have now surpassed that of grocers

11 Rent vs. Vacancy Industrial Overall

12 Notable Transactions >15,000 SF Industrial 7365 Greendale Road Windsor 218 Smokey Street Fort Collins 15,446 SF 4800 Innovation Drive Fort Collins 30,205 SF 3951 MacArthur Avenue Loveland 26,340 SF 23,625 SF

13 Rent vs. Vacancy Multifamily Overall

14 Total Notable Sales > 15,000 SF 2017 vs Office $28,032, Retail $39,706, Industrial $64,242, Multifamily $219,990,400 Office $54,500, Retail $66,965, Industrial $34,800, Multifamily $264,100,000

2017 Notable Sale Transactions >150,000 SF

Drive, Fort Collins Multifamily 1625 Sharp

$71,075,000 ($323,068/Unit) 2736 Raintree

15 2017 Notable Sale Transactions >150,000 SF Multifamily / Industrial 1721 Choice Center Drive, Fort Collins Multifamily 1625 Sharp Point Drive, Fort Collins Industrial $71,075,000 ($323,068/Unit) 2736 Raintree Drive, Fort Collins Multifamily $25,800,00 (199,886 SF) 3600 Ronald Reagan Blvd, Johnstown Industrial $47,500,000 ($158,333/Unit) $14,742,450 (165,625 SF)

16 Notable Sale Transactions >25,000 SF Office / Retail 4000 Burlington Avenue, Evans Office 2160 West Drake Road, Fort Collins Retail $9,000,000 (46,543 SF) 3985 S Lincoln Avenue, Loveland Office $11,300,000 (58,240 SF) 1440 North Lincoln Avenue, Loveland Retail $3,684,211 (28,652 SF) $9,850,000 (26,404 SF)

17 Notable Proposed/Under Construction Deliveries Office / Retail / Industrial / Multifamily 2017 Deliveries By Property Type Type SF Office 258,936 Industrial 541,310 Retail 455,166 Multifamily 1,670,355 TOTAL 2,925, Deliveries By Property Type Type SF Office 0 Industrial 165,580 Retail 561,651 Multifamily 2,586,869 TOTAL 3,314,100 Proposed Deliveries Beyond 2018 Type SF Office 261,245 Industrial 1,148,414 Retail 1,536,641 Multifamily 6,470,842 TOTAL 9,417,142

18 What all of this means? Industrial - Pockets for speculative development opportunities Retail - Repositioning junior/larger boxes Office - Rents aren t there to justify new construction Multifamily - Investment & development to continue in our market Investments - Strong demand for core assets in NoCo to continue

RETAIL OPENING MAY 2017

RETAIL OPENING MAY 2017 NEW MIXED-USE DEVELOPMENT COMING TO HARMONY ROAD Fort Collins, CO Location: Space Available: Corner of Harmony Road & Lady Moon 989-8,321 SF (Contiguous) Retail/Restaurant for Lease Pad Sites Available