GTRI/DOE Disclaimer. Cable Diagnostic Focused Initiative Regional Meeting NEETRAC. CDFI Contributors. Presenters

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1 GTRI/DOE Disclaimer Cable Diagnostic Focused Initiative Regional Meeting NEETRAC Hosted by Pacific Gas and Electric San Ramon, CA August 9-, 9 The information contained herein is to our knowledge accurate and reliable at the date of publication. Neither GTRC nor The Georgia Institute of Technology nor NEETRAC will be responsible for any injury to or death of persons or damage to or destruction of property or for any other loss, damage or injury of any kind whatsoever resulting from the use of the project results and/or data. GTRC, GIT and NEETRAC disclaim any and all warranties both express and implied with respect to analysis or research or results contained in this report. It is the user's responsibility to conduct the necessary assessments in order to satisfy themselves as to the suitability of the products or recommendations for the user's particular purpose. No statement herein shall be construed as an endorsement of any product or process or provider Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Energy This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award No DE-FC-4CH37 Presenters CDFI Contributors Dr. Nigel Hampton is the Program Manager for Reliability work at NEETRAC. He has worked in the Power Cable arena for more than years. Nigel has a PhD in Physics from the University of Bath UK. He is currently the vice-chair of the Insulated Conductor Committee s subcommittee on diagnostic testing (Subcommittee F). Dr. Joshua Perkel is a Research Engineer in the Assessment group at NEETRAC. He has worked in the Power Cable arena for more than years. Josh holds a PhD in electrical engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. NEETRAC Jorge Altamirano Tim Andrews Yamille del Valle Nigel Hampton (Co-PI) Georgia Tech - ECE Miroslav Begovic Ron Harley J.C. Hernandez Salman Mohagheghi Rick Hartlein (PI) Thomas Parker Joshua Perkel IREQ Jean-Francois Drapeau 3 4

2 Day Day Time : 3: 3: 3: 3: 3:3 3:3 4: 4: 4:3 4:3 4:4 4:4 : : 6: 6: 6:3 6:3 7: Topic Lunch Welcome NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Break Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies (Part I) Time 7:3 8: 8: 8: 8: 9:3 9:3 : : : : : : :4 :4 : : 3: Topic Continental Breakfast Review Day Diagnostic Testing Technologies (Part II) Accuracies Really Matter Break The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary Lunch 6 Outline Day NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary 7 8

3 Background Created in 996 when Georgia Power donated the facilities of its Research Center to Georgia Tech. NEETRAC Overview Set up as a self supporting center within the School of Electrical and Computer Engineering of the Georgia Tech. NEETRAC is a membership based center, conducting research programs for the Electric Energy Transmission and Distribution Industry. 9 NEETRAC Overview NEETRAC Mission & Vision Mission To provide a venue where NEETRAC Staff, NEETRAC Members and the Georgia Tech Academic community can collaborate to solve problems in the T&D Arena. Vision We will build on our expertise to become the leading national Center for collaborative applied and strategic research and development for electric transmission and distribution.. 3M. ABB 3. Ameren Services 4. American Electric Power. Baltimore Gas & Electric 6. British Columbia Hydro 7. Borealis Compounds LLC 8. Con Edison 9. Cooper Power Systems. Dominion/Virginia Power. Dow Chemical Company. Duke Energy 3. Entergy 4. Exelon. First Energy 6. Florida Power & Light 7. GRESCO Utility Supply Members 9-8. Hubbell 9. NRECA. NSTAR. PacifiCorp. Prysmian Cables & Systems 3. Public Service Electric & Gas 4. S&C Electric Company. South Carolina Electric & Gas 6. Southern California Edison 7. Southern Company 8. Southern States 9. Southwire 3. Thomas and Betts/Homac 3. TVA 3. tyco / Raychem 33. Zenergy Power NEETRAC Overview NEETRAC Overview 3

4 NEETRAC Membership Growth Members Utility Members Provide > % of power sold in the US Serve over 64,, customers Members Manufacturing Members Primary suppliers of T&D equipment to electric utilities in the United States Year 6 8 NEETRAC Overview 3 NEETRAC Overview 4 Focus Areas Developed Facilities: High Voltage Lab PRIMARY FOCUS AREA Hardware/Equipment Testing New Technology/Research Reliability System Analysis FOCUS SEGMENTS Application Research Product Evaluation Engineering Analysis & Support Equipment Spec. & Test Protocol Development New Product Development Research System Enhancements Asset Management Condition Assessment Forensics Operation, Installation, Design Power Quality/Grounding Safety Training/Education NEETRAC Overview NEETRAC Overview 6 4

5 3 Tensile and Impact Tests on -ft Grounding Jumpers C-clamp on -in pin to Flat-face Clamp on /8-in pin, Tension versus Clamp Displacement Actuator Displacement (inches) Sample J4 Impact Sample J4 Tensile Sample J, Impact Sample J Tensile Sample I4, Impact Sample I, Impact Sample I6, Impact γ r γ a Facilities: Low Voltage & Mechanical Lab Direction of Drop Movement Investment ΔV P loss NEETRAC Overview 7 NEETRAC Overview 8 Staff Research Staff Ph.D degees (EE & Physics) M.S. degrees (EE, IE, & ME) Bachelors degrees (EE & ME) Administrative and IT Support Coop Students Tension (lb) NEETRAC Overview 9 NEETRAC Overview

6 This is NEETRAC Outline Research Staff Administrative Support Staff Academic Faculty Co-op and Graduate Students NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary NEETRAC Overview Why do we need diagnostics? Underground cable system infrastructure is aging (and failing). Much of the system is older than its design life. CDFI Background Not enough money / manufacturing capacity to simply replace cable systems because they are old. Cable Failures per Year Need diagnostic tools that can help us decide which cables/accessories to replace & which can be left in service Always remember that we are talking about the cable SYSTEM, not just cable. 3 CDFI Background/Overview 4 6

7 Composition of US MV system Failure Split Installed Capacity (%) Splices 37.% Unknown.% Terminations.6% Cable 6.% PILC HMWPE XLPE EPR TRXLPE UNKNOWN CDFI Background/Overview CDFI Background/Overview 6 Overview In the CDFI, NEETRAC worked with 7 utilities, manufacturers and diagnostic providers to achieve the objective of clarifying the concerns and defining the benefits of diagnostic testing. Phase has almost exclusively focused on aged medium voltage systems. NEETRAC Members Diagnostic Providers CDFI Dept of Energy This is the largest coherent study of cable system diagnostics anywhere. Non NEETRAC Members Supporters CDFI Background/Overview 7 CDFI Background/Overview 8 7

8 Participants American Electric Power HV Technologies Ameren Hydro Quebec Cablewise / Utilx CenterPoint Energy Con Edison Cooper Power Systems IMCORP NRECA PacifiCorp (added mid ) Pacific Gas & Electric (added Jan 6) Duke Power Company PEPCO Exelon (Commonwealth Edison & PECO) Oncor (TXU) First Energy Prysmian Florida Power & Light Public Service Electric & Gas Georgia Tech Tyco / Raychem GRESCO HDW Electronics Southern California Edison Southern Company HV Diagnostics Southwire CDFI - Primary Activities ) Technology Review ) Analysis of Existing (Historical) Data 3) Collection and Analysis of Field (New) Data 4) Verification of VLF Test Levels ) Defect Characterization 6) Develop Knowledge Based System 7) Quantify Economic Benefits 8) Reports, Update Meetings and Tech Transfer Seminars Analyses are data / results driven CDFI Background/Overview 9 CDFI Background/Overview 3 CDFI Activities CDFI Activities CDFI CDFI Analysis Lab Studies Field Studies Dissemination Value / Benefit VLF Withstand Georgia Power Handbook Accuracies Tan δ Duke Publications Utility Data PD Meetings Analysis Lab Studies Field Studies Dissemination IEEE Std Work Industry CDFI Background/Overview 3 Knowledge Based Systems CDFI CDFI Background/Overview 3 8

9 CDFI Activities Lab Studies VLF Withstand Tan δ PD Georgia Power XLPE Jkt & UnJkt Conductor Miles Offline PD (.Hz) Offline PD (6Hz) Tan δ Monitored Withstand CDFI Activities Field Studies Duke XLPE & Paper Jkt & UnJkt 9 Conductor Miles Offline PD (.Hz) Tan δ Monitored Withstand Test Time Test Voltage Forensics Time Stability Voltage Stability Non-Uniform Degradation Neutral Corrosion Calibration Phase Pattern Feature Extraction Classification Evans Macon Roswell Charlotte * Cincinnati Clemson Morresville CDFI Background/Overview 33 CDFI Background/Overview 34 CDFI Activities Analysis 89, Conductor Miles CDFI Activities Utility Data Value / Benefit Accuracies Utility Data IEEE Std Work Knowledge Based Systems Con Ed Com Ed PPL Alabama Power Keyspan Economic Model SAGE DC Withstand Offline PD Online PD Tan δ VLF Withstand 4 Omnibus 4. VLF Survey Expert System Application CDFI Background/Overview 3 DC Withstand Online PD VLF Withstand Offline PD (6Hz) Online PD Tan Delta VLF Withstand Offline PD (.Hz) Tan Delta Online PD Offline PD (.Hz) Tan Delta CDFI Background/Overview 36 9

10 CDFI Activities Utility Data Data Type Technique DC Withstand Dataset Sizes Laboratory [Conductor miles] - Field [Conductor miles] 78, Monitored Withstand - 49 FPL PEPCO PG&E ONCOR Ameren Diagnostic PD Offline PD Online Tan δ. Offline PD (6Hz) VLF Withstand Offline PD (6Hz) Offline PD (.Hz) Online PD VLF Withstand Offline PD (6Hz) Online PD Tan δ Offline PD (6Hz) Online PD Offline PD (6Hz) CDFI Background/Overview 37 Service Performance VLF Withstand IRC ALL..3 9,8-89, CDFI Background/Overview 38 Benefits from Diagnostic Programs Decreasing failures associated with diagnostics and actions At the Start For many utilities, the usefulness of diagnostic testing was unclear. Log Cumulative Failures Program Initiated The focus was on the technique, not the approach. The economic benefits were not well defined. There was almost no independently collated and analyzed data. 8 9 Time [Days] 3 There were no independent tools for evaluating diagnostic effectiveness. CDFI Background/Overview 39 CDFI Background/Overview 4

11 Where we are today (). Diagnostics work they tell you many useful things, but not everything.. Diagnostics do not work in all situations. 3. Diagnostics have great difficulty definitively determining the longevity of individual devices. 4. Utilities HAVE to act on ALL replacement & repair recommendations to get improved reliability.. The performance of a diagnostic program depends on Where you use the diagnostic When you use the diagnostic What diagnostic you use What you do afterwards Where we are today () 6. Quantitative analysis is complex BUT is needed to clearly see benefits. 7. Diagnostic data require skilled interpretation to establish how to act. 8. No one diagnostic is likely to provide the detailed data required for accurate diagnoses. 9. Large quantities of field data are needed to establish the accuracy/limitations of different diagnostic technologies..important to have correct expectations diagnostics are useful but not perfect! CDFI Background/Overview 4 CDFI Background/Overview 4 Overview In the CDFI, NEETRAC worked with 7 utilities, manufacturers and diagnostic providers to achieve the objective of clarifying the concerns and defining the benefits of diagnostic testing. We have come a long way wrt the project objective. Analysis driven by data / results Developed a good understanding that diagnostic testing can be useful, but the technologies are not perfect. Developed ways to define diagnostic technology accuracy and found ways to handle inaccuracies. Developed diagnostic technology selection and economic analysis tools. Understand that there is yet more to learn. CDFI Background/Overview 43 QUESTIONS 44

12 Outline NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary How things fail and what fails have a big impact on the selection of diagnostics Cable System Failure Process 4 46 Failures by Equipment Failure Rates Peak at 4 Disbursement of Failures (%) Failure Rate [#/ Miles/Year] Max: 4 Mean: Upper Quartile: 8 Median: 3. Lower Quartile:.6 Cable - all (%) Splice - all (%) Terminations - all (%) Unknown - all (%) Cable System Failure Process 47 Cable System Failure Process 48

13 Failure Rate Estimates By Equipment Failure Rate - Monte Carlo Estimate (#/miles/yr) Cable Rate Splice Rate Term Rate Unk Rate Extruded Major Cable Components Conductor Conductor Shield Insulation Insulation Shield Metallic Shield/Neutral Jacket (Recommended) PILC Cable System Failure Process 49 Cable System Failure Process Defect Types in Extruded Cables Conversion of Water to Electrical Trees. Cavity at shield(s). Cavities due to shrinkage 3. Insulation shield defect 4. Contaminant (poor adhesion). Protrusions at shield(s) 6,7 Splinter/Fiber 8. Contaminants in insulation or shields Cable System Failure Process Electrical tree growing from water tree Acts as a stress enhancement or protrusion (non-conducting) Water tree increases local electric field Water tree also creates local mechanical stresses If electrical and mechanical stresses high enough electrical tree initiates Electrical tree completes the failure path rapid growth Cable System Failure Process 3

14 Defect Types in Extruded Cable Accessories Diagnostics used in Challenging Areas Cable System Failure Process 3 Cable System Failure Process 4 Summary Cable system aging is a complex phenomenon. Multiple factors cause systems to age. Increases in dielectric loss and partial discharge are key phenomenon. QUESTIONS The aging process is nonlinear. Diagnostics must take these factors into consideration. Cable System Failure Process 6 4

15 Outline NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary SAGE Approach to Diagnostic Programs 7 8 Diagnostic Program Phases - SAGE Selection Data compilation and analysis needed to identify circuits that are at-risk for failure (at-risk population). Action Determine what actions can be taken on circuits based on the results of diagnostic testing. Failures [#] SAGE at Work Selection Action Generation Evaluation Generation Conduct diagnostic testing of the at-risk population. Increasing Failures Evaluation Monitor at-risk population after testing to observe/improve performance of diagnostic program. SAGE Concept 9 Decreasing Failures SAGE Concept Time 6

16 Failures [#] When to deploy diagnostics Increasing Failures Continued Failure Increase Cable System Performance Commissioning Condition Assessment Decreasing Failures Operational Stress Time (Years) 3 4 SAGE Concept Time 6 SAGE Concept 6 Context is important Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement QUESTIONS Local Context Comparisons within one area Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards SAGE Concept

17 Outline NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary Case Study Roswell, GA November 8 & January 9 TDR Tan Delta Monitored Withstand Offline PD 6 66 Roswell Map SELECTION Case Study: Roswell 67 Case Study: Roswell 68 7

18 Roswell Background Info. Knowledge Based Selection System 98 vintage XLPE feeder cable, kcmil, 6 mils wall, jacketed. Failures have occurred over the years no data on source Recently experienced very high failure rates of splices on this section: 8 failures / miles / yr. Overall there have been - failures of these splices in last two years on a variety of GPC feeders. Splice replacement may be acceptable if there is a technical basis. Case Study: Roswell 69 Case Study: Roswell 7 Summary for Diagnostic Selection Diagnostic Technique KBS Demo Action Scenario DC Withstand VLF Mins VLF 3 Mins VLF 6 Mins HV DC Leakage Monitored Withstand Tan Delta PD Online PD Offline TDR & Historical Records ONLY Replace Small Portion Replace Segment Replace Accessories Have a shortlist of three techniques Case Study: Roswell 7 Case Study: Roswell 7 8

19 Economic Details prior to testing Complete System Replacement $,, approx Complete Splice Replacement $6, Test time (determined by switching) 3-4 Days Selection Costs $, Splice Replacement 7 Days Retest after remediation Day Monitored Withstand, Offline PD and VLF (3 mins) offer economic benefit over doing nothing. Scenario Assessment before Testing Offline PD If,ft is tested.% fails on test, no customer interrupted site /,ft (median) 4% discharges in cable Estimate fails on test discharge sites cable, 3 accessories splices < failure in months from test Monitored Withstand If,ft is tested <4% fails on test, no customer interrupted 7% of loss tests indicate no further action Estimate < fails on test 3 assessed for further consideration by loss. failure in months from test Case Study: Roswell 73 Case Study: Roswell 74 Initial Corrective Action Options Replace splices only no detailed records assume splices. Complete system replacement. ACTION Case Study: Roswell 7 Case Study: Roswell 76 9

20 Overhead and Cabinet Terminations GENERATION Case Study: Roswell 77 Case Study: Roswell 78 If this had been a Simple Withstand Tan δ Monitored Withstand No Failures On Test 8 Segments Tested 4 6 Length Tested (miles) 8 Case Study: Roswell 79 Case Study: Roswell 8

21 Monitored Withstand - Stability Test Results - Local Perspective 8 Segments Tested Pass - Stable Loss Pass - Un Stable Loss 3 min test 6 min test Tip Up in Tan Delta {.Uo -.Uo} (e-3) Length Along Feeder (ft) Measurement Stability Numbers indicate Segment ID's STABLE UNSTABLE Sequence of Lengths Tested (miles) 8 Panel variable: Phase Case Study: Roswell 8 Case Study: Roswell 8 Test Results Global Perspective Tan Uo (e-3)... Stability STABLE UNSTABLE Splice Error Range of instability in monitored withstand Termination Damage 6 Targeted Offline PD (VLF). Tip Up.Uo -. Uo (e-3) Case Study: Roswell 83 Case Study: Roswell 84

22 Targeted Offline PD Test Segment 6 Phase A - TDR B - C - 3 Open symbols represent the anomalous TDR reflections A - PD B - (Approx Positions) C Distance from Cubicle (ft) 4 VLF Test Voltage (kv) PD Inception local perspective A - B PD in of 9 splices C PD in of 9 splices Probability of Splice Inception (%) Position of PD (ft) PD in of 7 splices Position from Cubicle (ft) Panel variable: Phase 8 9 PD Inception (kv) Case Study: Roswell 8 Case Study: Roswell 86 EVALUATION Evaluation after Testing Offline PD,ft actually tested Estimate discharge sites 6 cable, 9 accessories 6 splices < failure in months from test Actual 7 discharge sites cable, 7 accessories splices failure in 7 months since test Monitored Withstand,ft actually tested Estimate fails on test 3 assessed for further consideration by loss. failure in months from test Actual fails on test 6 assessed for further consideration by stability, tip up & loss failure (cable) in 8 months since test Case Study: Roswell 87 Case Study: Roswell 88

23 After Testing Actions have been performed by GPC. Suspect splice investigated, actually broken neutral. Damaged termination replaced. Test excavations & Ground Penetrating Radar tests conducted, concluded that it was not practical to replace splices as planned QUESTIONS System re-enforcements planned. All tested circuits have been left in service and are being monitored by GPC. Case Study: Roswell 89 9 Outline Break NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary 9 9 3

24 Performance of Diagnostics Performance evaluation primarily focuses on diagnostic accuracy. Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic accuracies quantify the diagnostic s ability to correctly assess a circuit s condition. Accuracy must be assessed based on pilot type field test programs in which no actions are performed. Circuits must be tracked for a sufficient period of time Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Measurements and Failures Symptoms are difficult to relate to future failures unless they are in the extremes. Good? Bad Objective of Diagnostic Tests The target population contains both Good and Bad components Good Will not fail within diagnostic time horizon Bad Will fail within diagnostic time horizon Bad Components Target Population Good Components Probability No Failure Failure Diagnostic Measurement 9 Diagnostic Accuracies 96 Diagnostic Accuracies 4

25 Diagnostic Operation Applying the diagnostic will separate the population into: No Action Required group Action Required group 33.8% Complimentary Diagnoses Online PD Offline PD 4.% 9.7% But if the diagnostic is imperfect....3% No Action Required Action Required.% VLF TD.7% 69.% Category No Action Action No Test 4.% Ratio Action / No Action Online PD 79% Offline PD 36% VLF TD % 3 Service Failures 83.% since testing completed 97 Diagnostic Accuracies 98 Diagnostic Accuracies Agreement CDFI Accuracies CDFI diagnostic accuracies are based on service performance (failures) not diagnostic agreement. Agree Disagree Variable Agreement btw Online Offline * Online PD Agreement btw Online VLF TD * Online PD Agreement btw Offline VLF TD * Offline PD Perspective Diagnostics make measurements in the field and find Anomalies. Detecting the presence of an Anomaly is, in our view, not sufficient. The goal, in our view, is to detect an Anomaly which leads to reduced reliability (failure in service) or compromised performance (severed neutrals stray voltage). In accuracy estimates we have used failures in service and interpreted the diagnostics as Bad Means Failure. Dont_Act Action Act 99 Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Accuracies

26 Bad Means Failure Accuracies All Accuracies No Action Accuracy Action Accuracy Diagnostic Accuracy Diagnostic Accuracy [%] Dataset Action Accuracy No Action Accuracy Overall Accuracy Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Accuracies Outline QUESTIONS NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary 3 4 6

27 Introduction A wide range of diagnostic techniques are commercially available. Diagnostic Testing Technologies Tests are performed either offline (circuit de-energized)) or online (energized) and by service providers or utility crews. Different voltage sources may be used to perform the same measurement. DC 6 Hz. AC Very Low Frequency (VLF) AC Damped AC (DAC) Diagnostic Testing Technologies 6 Diagnostic Survey A survey of CDFI participants in 6 was conducted to determine how diagnostics were employed. Utility Use of Diagnostics Survey was updated at the end of 8. Survey results focused CDFI work on technologies currently used in the USA. Diagnostic Testing Technologies 7 8 Diagnostic Testing Technologies 7

28 Survey of Use of Diagnostics Survey of Use of Diagnostics More than one technique used No testing One technique used 7.8% Testing 4.7% 4.%.% No Testing 7.% 3.6% 96.% No Testing Testing - one technique Testing - > one technique Diagnostic Testing Technologies 9 No Testing Occasional use Regularly used Some testing Diagnostic Testing Technologies Technologies Simple Dielectric Withstand Dielectric Loss (Tan δ & Dielectric Spectroscopy) Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) Online Partial Discharge (PD) Offline Partial Discharge (PD) Isothermal Relaxation Current (IRC) Recovery Voltage (RV) Combined Diagnostics Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement Context Local Context Comparisons within one area Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards Diagnostic Testing Technologies Diagnostic Testing Technologies 8

29 Diagnostic Context OK Not Proven either way NOT OK Simple Dielectric Withstand Extreme conditions are easy to decide what to do about. What to do about the ones in the middle? How to define the boundaries? Diagnostic Testing Technologies 3 4 Simple Dielectric Withstand Test Description Application of voltage above normal operating voltage for a prescribed duration. Attempts to drive weakest location(s) within cable segment to failure while segment is not in service. Field Application Offline test that may use: DC 6 Hz. AC VLF AC Damped AC Testing may be performed by a service provider or utility crew. Simple Dielectric Withstand Voltage EARLY Hold Entry Ramp Entry Withstand Test Process t = HOLD Voltages and Times for VLF covered in IEEE Std. 4. The goal is to have circuit out of service, test it such that imminent service failures are made to occur on the test and not in service t Test Time 6 Simple Dielectric Withstand 9

30 VLF Test Voltages Test Voltage (kv) Cosine-rectangular Sinusoidal Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement Variable Peak Voltage (kv) Peak Voltage (kv) Peak Voltage (kv) RMS Voltage (kv) Use Acceptance Installation Maintenance Acceptance RMS Voltage (kv) Installation RMS Voltage (kv) Maintenance 3 Cable Rating (kv) 3 Simple Dielectric Withstand 7 Simple Dielectric Withstand 8 Test Sequences Withstand Test Outcomes Simple VLF Withstand to IEEE4. Levels Time of failure in mins for failures > mins Local Context Comparisons within one area Cumulative Length Tested in One Year (Miles) 4 Simple Dielectric Withstand 9 Simple Dielectric Withstand 3

31 Separation with Simple VLF Outcomes Early Phase Matters 3 6 Early Hold Failures on Test [% of Tested] 3 Area is clearly different from the others. Failures on Test [% of Tested] % of failures on test occurred during Early phase Overall Area Time on Test [Minutes]. Simple Dielectric Withstand Simple Dielectric Withstand Failure son Test - FOT (% of Sections Tested)..4.3 START OF HOLD PHASE... Early and Hold Phases DC.% Length Adjusted Feeder Voltage 3 7 Simple Dielectric Withstand START OF HOLD PHASE VLF.6% Difference between VLF and DC is primarily Time result on Test of (Mins) Early phase 3 Early Phase Ramp Entry Example Failures on Test [% of Total Tests] In this case, 6 % of the tests produced a failure before reaching the target test voltage... Voltage [U]. 4 Simple Dielectric Withstand 3

32 Early and Hold Failure Mechanisms (VLF) Early Phase Hold Entry Failures on Test [% of Total Tested]. Early Phase. Hold Phase... Time on Test [Minutes].. Failures on Test [% of Total Tested] Early phase accounts for 3 % of failures on test... Time on Test [Minutes]... Simple Dielectric Withstand Simple Dielectric Withstand 6 Withstand Testing Experience Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards Survivors [% of Total LengthsTested] Conductor Miles > Conductor Miles.3 Conductor Miles IEEE Recommendation IEEE 4. Range 3 4 Time on Test [Minutes] 6 7 Simple Dielectric Withstand 7 8 Simple Dielectric Withstand 3

33 Test Performance for Different Utilities Failures on Test [% of ft Segments] Utility A A 3 D I ft Length Adj Time on Test [Minutes] 6.7%.% 4.4%.% Service Failures [% of Total Tested] 3 3. Service Experience 3 Test Conditions 6 Conductor Miles Time to Failure % [Days] U U Time to Failure [Days since test] 47 Days 637 Days Time to Failure % [Days] 47 Days 47 Days % % Simple Dielectric Withstand 9 Simple Dielectric Withstand 3 Performance After Test Pass/No Pass Failures on T est [% of T otal T ested] 3 Initial Test Result Pass No Pass - Repaired Minute Not Length Adjusted 3 Minute Failures on T est [% of T otal T ested] 3 Initial Test Result Pass No Pass - Repaired Difference between Passing and not Passing Test Duration [Min] 3 Time to Failure for % of Tested Segments [Days] Pass No Pass - Repaired Segments that fail on test and subsequently repaired perform better in service.. 33 T ime to Failure [Days] T ime to Failure [Days] Simple Dielectric Withstand

34 What does this mean for Withstand? The technique is widely used by utilities Tested circuits display improved reliability Circuits normally Pass the tests Multiple / cascading failures are rare IEEE4. recommended times (3 mins) and voltages seem to give good service performance What does this mean for Withstand? IEEE4. recommended times (3 mins) and voltages seem to give good service performance Modifications to IEEE4. recommendations need to be considered very carefully Voltage & test time cannot be determined independently Many test fails occur early in the test, useful information is revealed by tracking of these times / voltages of failure More failures on test does not mean fewer service fails QUESTIONS Day

35 Outline NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary Dielectric Loss (Tan δ) Dielectric Loss (Tan δ) Test Description Measures total cable system loss (cable, elbows, splices & terminations). May be performed at one or more frequencies (dielectric spectroscopy). May be performed at multiple voltage levels. Monitoring may be conducted for long durations. Field Application Offline test that may use: 6 Hz. AC VLF AC Damped AC Testing may be performed by a service provider or utility crew. Step voltage up to pre determined level with post test analysis Tan δ 39 V I Dielectric Loss (Tan δ) The cable insulation system is represented by an equivalent circuit. In its simplest form the equivalent circuit consists of two parameters (IEEE Std. 4): Resistor Capacitor When voltage is applied to the cable, the total current is the sum of the capacitor current and resistor current. IR I C I I R C tan( δ ) = DF = = δ I ωrc I R I θ V C Tan δ 4 3

36 Cable System Equivalent Cable system (cable, splices, and T terminations) C is reduced S to simple C circuit. T Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement Tan δ 4 Tan δ 4 Tan δ Ramp Test Data 9 8 Voltage [p.u.]....7 Tan-delta [e-3] Tip Up Mean Local Context Comparisons within one area 3 Time [min] 3 Scatter (represented by Standard Deviation - IQR could be used) 4 Tan δ 43 Tan δ 44 36

37 Tan δ Data for EPR Cable Systems Segments within a Feeder Tan Delta (e-3) Lowest Concern 3 4 Highest Concern Voltage (kv) 9 Tip Up in Tan Delta {.Uo -.Uo} (e-3) Stable STABLE UNSTABLE Phase = Length Along Feeder (ft) 7 6 Tan δ 4 Tan δ 46 Lengths within a Local Region Tan Delta (e-3) 3 Length (ft) 4 Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards Tan δ 47 Tan δ 48 37

38 Testing at Reduced Voltages Tan δ Interpretation Uo [E-3]. Regression 9% CI 9% PI CI: Confidence Interval PI: Prediction Interval Tan Delta - 6 Based on 8 Conductor Miles Action Required Further Study No Action.... Uo [E-3]. - - Tip Up - Tan δ 49 Tan δ Tan δ Correlation with VLF Withstand Tan δ Performance Curves. Basic Type? Filled Unfilled Tan D (e-3).. Percent 3 Action Action AR ACTION REQUIRED FS FURTHER STUDY NA NO ACTION Fail Subsequent VLF Withstand Pass Subsequent VLF Withstand Length (ft) 4 6 FOT Elasped Time between test and failure in service at May 9 (Month).6 Tan δ Tan δ 38

39 What does this mean for Tan δ? Provides information on the whole cable system Most useful features are Time Stability Differential Tan δ (Tip Up) Higher loss correlates with increased probability of failure Comparisons provide very useful information Length effects Adjacent sections / phases Existing levels in IEEE Std. 4 are too conservative. Newer (higher) levels to be in IEEE Std. 4. revision Time Domain Reflectometry 3 4 Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) TDR Principles Test Description Measures changes in the cable impedance as a function of circuit length by observing the pattern of wave reflections. Used to identify locations of accessories, faults, etc. Near End TDR Equipment L Joint Far End Field Application Offline test that uses a low voltage, high frequency pulse generator. Testing may be performed by a service provider or utility crew. Joint TDR TDR 6 39

40 Wet Joint TDR Field Measurements Water ingress location as seen by the TDR A- Anomalous TDR reflections (open circles) Phase B- Feeder had two splice failures just before the test. Water ingress was detected with the TDR. C-3 Failure on /7/8 at detected water ingress location. Water ingress confirmed by tests and repair crew. TDR 7 3 Distance from Cubicle [ft] 4 TDR 8 Lengths Tested What does this mean for TDR? PD Median 84 ft Tan D Median 48 ft All diagnostics rely on the neutral, TDR helps to establish its condition. Length and accessory information are very important in establishing the context of diagnostic findings. Percent VLF Withstand Median 3 ft Panel variable: Technique Based on diagnostic data supplied to CDFI Unusual TDR traces can diagnose unusual features in their own right... Measurements made with TDR Cable Length - log (ft) TDR 9 6 4

41 Online Partial Discharge Online Partial Discharge Test Description Measurement and interpretation of discharge and signals on cable segments and/or accessories. Signals captured over minutes / hours. Monitoring may be conducted for long durations. Field Application Online test that does not require external voltage supply. Testing typically performed by a service provider. Different implementations of the overall approach Assessment criteria are unique to each embodiment of the technology 6 Online PD 6 Discharge Occurrence Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement No PD PD Online PD 63 Online PD 64 4

42 Distribution of PD along Lengths ft. portion of sample feeder Mixture of different PD levels for different sections and accessories. Local Context Comparisons within one area Cable Section Accessory No PD PD Online PD 6 Online PD 66 Where is PD found? Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards Accessory 4.% Cable 46.% Online PD 67 Online PD 68 4

43 Variability in PD Location Diagnostic Results (Overall) 6 Conductor Miles Accessory Cable % 4.9%.% 3.% 3 4.4% 4.8%.3% 3.4% Percentage of PD (%) % 68.% Cable Accessory Online PD 69 Online PD 7 Level Based Reporting Systems Level-based (i.e.,, 3, Defer, Repair, Replace, Act, Don t Act etc.) reporting systems are increasingly common. Level systems, on their own, can have limited meaning for utilities. Levels clearly indicate a hierarchy worse than 4 Replace worse than Defer No sense of the magnitude of the difference How much worse is Act than Don t Act in terms of service performance? Comparisons / interpretation of different level-based reporting systems is difficult. Percent Online PD Performance Curve 99 Level % 8% 3% Need to associate meaning with the levels... Time to Failure (Years)... Level Based Reporting 7 Level Based Reporting 7 43

44 Alternate Interpretation Probabilistic Approach Online PD Original Level 3 4 Alternate Class (based on probability of failure) << 3 < Percent PD Class No PD PD Class 8 has 6 times poorer endurance than Class 3 Class 89 is times poorer than Class 8. Days Between Test & Failure Level Based Reporting 73 Level Based Reporting 74 Variability in Diagnostic Results How often is PD found? Accessory Cable.3 Percent PD Occurence (#/ ft) signals / ft PD signal every 4 ft. Level Level Level 3 Level 4 Level Level Level Level 3 Level 4 Level Cable PD Accessory PD All PD Online PD 7 Online PD 76 44

45 Cummulative Failures [#] Estimated Failure Reduction ACCESSORY 4 Actions for 4 Avoided Fails Levels 4/ Replaced All Segments Left in Service Time since Start [Days] CABLE Actions for 3 Avoided Fails What does this mean for Online PD? Highly degraded systems most easily differentiated Not necessarily easy to deploy sensor placement and manhole access can be challenging Signal analysis is labor intensive Data for level interpretation is available Trending is likely to be valuable, incorporating this in a level-based reporting system can be a challenge Baseline (when new) studies likely to be valuable Active failure mechanisms need to involve discharges Can localize to accessory and cable segments Online PD Offline Partial Discharge Offline Partial Discharge Test Description Measurement and interpretation of partial discharge signals above normal operating voltages. Signal reflections (combined with TDR information) allows location to be identified within cable segment. 79 Field Application Offline test that may use: 6 Hz. AC service provider VLF AC utility crew Damped AC utility crew Step voltage up to pre determined level with post test analysis Offline PD 8 4

46 PD Pulse Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement 4 mv 8 pc Offline PD 8 Offline PD 8 PD Phase Resolved Pattern PD Magnitude.E E- -.E- 6-6 Amplitude [pc] PD Level (pc) 3 3 Max Limit for 97's production Individual Measurement from the field -.E- 8 Phese [Deg] Max allowed for current production.7.. PD Measurement Voltage (Uo) Offline PD 83 Offline PD 84 46

47 PD Charge Magnitude Distributions XLPE Local Context Comparisons within one area Percent 3 4 Apparent Charge Magnitude [pc] 6 Offline PD 8 Offline PD 86 PD Inception Voltage 8 6 XLPE 4 Percent Apparent Inception Voltage [U].4 Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards Offline PD 87 Offline PD 88 47

48 6.6% of PD sites detected in accessories T ermination 6.3% Location of PD Conductor Miles Offline PD Test Sequence Testing sequence for 6, ft. Cable 39.4% No PD Splice 34.3% PD Offline PD 89 Offline PD 9 PD Location PD Sites per Length 8 6 Terminations Median =.96 PD Sites/ ft Approx. PD Site/ ft Percent Cable & Splices PD Sites per feet Location [% of Circuit Length] 7 9 Offline PD 9 Offline PD 9 48

49 What does this mean for Offline PD? Highly degraded systems most easily differentiated Signal analysis can be labor intensive Data for level interpretation could be available Trending is likely to be very valuable Incorporating trending in a level-based reporting system can be a challenge Baseline (when new) studies likely to be very valuable Active failure mechanisms need to involve discharges Can localize to accessory and within short cable length within a segment Isothermal Relaxation Current Recovery Voltage Isothermal Relaxation Current Recovery Voltage Test Description Measures the time constant of trapped charges within the insulation material as they are discharged. Discharge current is observed for -3 minutes. Field Application Offline test that uses DC to charge the cable segment up to kv. Testing is performed by a service provider. Test Description Similar to IRC only voltage is monitored instead of current Field Application Offline test that requires initial charging by DC source up to kv. Testing is performed by a service provider. IRC 9 96 Recovery Voltage 49

50 What does this mean for IRC & RV? Use limited to evaluation studies in the laboratory Possibly too sensitive for field use Combined Diagnostics Multiple degradation mechanisms mean that two diagnostics are often better than one 97 Combined Diagnostics 98 Survey of Use of Diagnostics Multiple Diagnostics.% Category Tan Delta / PD VLF / Tan Delta 7.8% 4.7% 3.6% No Testing Testing - one technique Testing - > one technique 7.% Combined Diagnostics 99 Combined Diagnostics

51 Global What Diagnostics are Combined DC Leakage Tan δ DC Withstand PD TDR Local VLF Withstand Drawbacks of a Single Approach Each diagnostic looks for symptoms of one failure mechanism Voids and water trees cannot generally be detected by a single technique Overlooks short term time evolution of diagnostic measurements Technique specific: Withstand No idea by how much segment passed Tan δ Cannot detect voids or electrical trees PD Cannot detect water trees (water filled voids) Combined Diagnostics Combined Diagnostics Bad Advantage of Multiple Diagnostics Diagnostic BAD Data Generation from Diagnostic Measurement? Good GOOD Diagnostic Good? Bad 3 4 Combined Diagnostics

52 Tan δ Ramp Tan δ Monitored Withstand Tan-delta [e-3]..4.3 Tan-delta [e-3]..4.3 Stability of Tan-delta monitored through the minute withstand... 3 Time [min] 4 Voltage [p.u.] Time [min]. Combined Diagnostics Combined Diagnostics 6 Tan δ Ramp & Monitored Withstand After Repair Voltage [p.u.]....7 Elbow Failure Hampton Leas Segment HL_3_ Failure Voltage [p.u.]....7 Elbow Failure Hampton Leas Segment HL_3_ Failure Tan-delta [e-3] Tan-delta [e-3] After Failure 3 4 Time [min] Time [min] 6 7 Combined Diagnostics 7 8 Combined Diagnostics

53 Tan δ Monitored Withstand Global Context Comparison with many tests Databases Standards Withstand Test Outcomes UNSTABLE Poor Stability High TU Monitored VLF Withstand to IEEE4. Levels Cumulative Length Tested in One Year (Miles) High Loss 7 Simple VLF Withstand to IEEE4. Levels Time of failure in mins 8 9 Combined Diagnostics 9 Combined Diagnostics Outline QUESTIONS NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary 3

54 Cost [$] Diagnostic Program Costs Accuracies Revisited Why do they matter? Consequence Corrective Actions Total Diagnostic Program Cost Diagnostic Selection 3 Accuracies Really Matter 4 No Action Required Recall the Example... Action Required No Action Required Incorrect Diagnosis Action Required Avoided Corrective Actions Avoided service failures Future service failures Unneeded Corrective Actions Accuracies Really Matter 6 Accuracies Really Matter 4

55 Cost [$] Benefit and Loss Considerations Diagnostic program economic calculations are based on ability to predict future failures. BENEFIT Consequence Corrective Actions Diagnostic Alternate Program LOSS Alternate Program Total diagnostic program cost is more sensitive to certain elements than others. Failure Rate Diagnostic Accuracy Failure Consequence Selection Accuracies Really Matter 7 Accuracies Really Matter 8 Uncertainty in Diagnostic Program Costs Cost [$] Uncertainty in Diagnostic Program Costs Cost [$] Corrective Actions Consequence Program Cost Range Program Cost Range LOSS BENEFIT Alternate Program Diagnostic Selection Accuracies Really Matter 9 Accuracies Really Matter

56 Diagnostic Accuracy Complications Time is a critical factor in the assessment of accuracy. Failures do not happen immediately after testing. Two approaches to computing diagnostic accuracy. Bad Means Failure Approach Probabilistic Approach No Action Required Failures Over Time Year 34 Action Required Accuracies Really Matter Accuracies Really Matter Accuracy Over Time Bad Means Failure Accuracy [%] No Action Required Accuracy 4 3 Probabilistic Approach - Tan δ Action Required Accuracy? System Changes Additional Aging Increased Load Percent 3 Action Action AR ACTION REQUIRED FS FURTHER STUDY NA NO ACTION Time [Years] 4 6 FOT Elasped Time between test and failure in service at May 9 (Month).6 Accuracies Really Matter 3 4 Accuracies Really Matter 6

57 Outline QUESTIONS NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary 6 By Diagnostic Technique VLF DC Tan Delta The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before PD On PD Off TDR IRC DAC Category No Use Occasional Standard Testing 7 CDFI Research 8 7

58 CDFI Work in Lab and Field Dielectric Withstand Simple VLF Laboratory Study Dielectric Loss VLF Tan δ Monitored Withstand Partial Discharge Offline 6 Hz. CDFI Dielectric Withstand CDFI Research 9 Dielectric Withstand 3 Dielectric Withstand Length Distribution (Overall) Withstand techniques are most widely used diagnostic in the USA. 3 Median Length = 3 ft Most utilities use VLF (either sine or cosine-rectangular) in their withstand programs. Test duration and voltage are critical to performance on test and in service. Explored the concept of Monitored Withstand tests. Percent Wide variability in circuit lengths Circuit Length [Conductor ft] 7 84 Dielectric Withstand 3 Dielectric Withstand 3 8

59 Length Adjustments Comparison of withstand failure on test rates must include length adjustments. ft. Length Adjustments Comparison of withstand failure on test rates must include length adjustments. ft. Choose an appropriate base length Failure ft. ft. ft. ft. Censored Dielectric Withstand 33 Dielectric Withstand 34 Length Adjustments Utility I Hybrid System Base length must be a meaningful length ( ft is probably not a useful length). Two sets of censored segments: Pass Segments - All segments censored at test duration No Pass Segments failed segment remaining segments censored at failure time Multiple failure modes must be dealt with appropriately. Failures on Test [%] 3. Length Adjustment Feet Feet NONE Performance at longer test times can be predicted. Length Weighted Average FOT 3 Mins.7% 6 Mins.%.. Time on Test [Minutes] Dielectric Withstand 3 Dielectric Withstand % 4.%.4% 9

60 Effect of Test Voltage IEEE Rec. Level Survivors [% of Tested] PILC Extruded Mixed (PILC and Extruded) NEETRA C Ext ruded.. 3. Test Voltage (U = Rated Voltage) 3. VLF Lab Program Dielectric Withstand 37 Dielectric Withstand 38 Overview Test program combining aging at U with multiple applications of high voltage VLF. Uses field aged cable samples - one area within one utility. Evaluate the effects of Voltage and time on the performance on test and Subsequent reliability during service voltages. Primary Metric Survival during aging and testing : No Withstand : VLF.U Min 3: VLF 3.6U Min 4: VLF.U 6 Min : VLF.U Min Withstand Testing Periods (variable durations) Failures are the primary metric Aging Periods for evaluation Phase A End Secondary Metrics Before and after each VLF application, PD at U Between Phase A & B IRC, PD (AC.U, DAC), Tan δ 6: 6 Hz. 3.6U. Min Dielectric Withstand 39 4 CDFI Meeting - Aug. - San Ramon, CA 6

61 : No Withstand : VLF.U Min 3: VLF 3.6U Min 4: VLF.U 6 Min : VLF.U Min : No Withstand : VLF.U Min 3: VLF 3.6U Min 4: VLF.U 6 Min : VLF.U Min No Failures No Failures 3 VLF Failures No Aging Failures VLF Failures No Aging Failures No Failures 6: 6 Hz. 3.6U. Min T T T3 T4 4 T T T3 T4 4 CDFI Meeting - Aug. - San Ramon, CA CDFI Meeting - Aug. - San Ramon, CA 6: 6 Hz. 3.6U. Min 6 Hz. Failures No Aging Failures : No Withstand : VLF.U Min No Failures No Failures 9 Failures on Test 6 Uo, Ambient - Phase I & II 6 3Uo Rated, Sine.Uo Rated, Sine 9 3: VLF 3.6U Min 4: VLF.U 6 Min : VLF.U Min 3 VLF Failures No Aging Failures VLF Failures No Aging Failures No Failures Probability of Failure (%) Uo, 4C - Phase III 6 3Uo Rated, Cosine 9.Uo Rated, Cosine 34 6: 6 Hz. 3.6U. Min CDFI Meeting - Aug. - San Ramon, CA 6 Hz. Failures No Aging Failures T T T3 T4 43 Time of VLF Application (mins) 8 63 Dielectric Withstand 44 6

62 Voltage Effect on Times to Failure Failure Analyses - Trees & Defects in Cables 8 6 Phase I & II - Uo / RT ageing, Sine Phase III - Uo / 4C ageing, Cosine D DEFECT LARGE WATER TREE MEDIUM WATER TREE SMALL WATER TREE Time to % Failure [mins] Both curves show that higher voltage leads to increased failure rate Test Voltage [Uo] Failed Samples C B A Distance Along Cable (ft) Dielectric Withstand 4 Dielectric Withstand 46 VLF Test Program Summary Analysis of Phase A is complete. Phase B (U aging, 4 C Cosine Rectangular) underway. Phases A & B show that no VLF exposed samples have failed under 6 Hz U & U. CDFI Dielectric Loss Phase B tests shows two samples without VLF exposure failed during 6 Hz U. VLF failures on test: Less than mins: % ( failures) 6 mins: 7 % ( failures) Dielectric Withstand 47 Tan δ 48 6

63 Prevailing View Tan Delta Importance Tan δ Tip Up [U U] Importance CDFI Suggestion Tan Delta Tan δ Time Stability Tip Up [.U.U ] Tan δ [U] Tan δ 49 Tan δ Tan δ Time Stability VLF Tan Delta of Cable Systems Breakdown Performance Rank Breakdown Frequency [Hz] Tan-delta Hz (. Uo) Diagnostic Rank 6 7 Percent Can segregated based on areas where the curves break Define areas that are normal and unusual... Tan Delta at Uo (E-3) >6 segments Mean Length ft Total length > conductor miles. Ins Class Filled Paper PE. Tan δ Tan δ 63

64 Cable System Global Assessment Service Performance / Accuracy - Unfilled Polyolefin Insulations Tan Delta (e-3) 6 Further Study No Action Action Required Percent 3 Action ACTION REQUIRED FURTHER STUDY NO ACTION Tip Up (e-3) FOT Elasped Time between test and failure in service at May 9 (Month).6 Tan δ 3 Tan δ 4 CDFI Work Analysis of historical PD field test data CDFI Partial Discharge Classification Characterization of field samples by PD measurement in laboratory. Feature Extraction for Classification PD PD 6 64

65 PD Charge Magnitude Distributions PD Inception Voltage 4 Variable Cable_Failed_PC Cable_NOFailed_PC 3 Variable Cable_Failed_IV C able_nofailed_iv 3 Percent Percent Charge Magnitude [pc] Inception Voltage [U].4.7 PD 7 PD 8 Multi Feature Classification Criterion Classification - PD Magnitude & PDIV Bad? Good GOOD BAD Criterion Succes Rate [% of Tested] Variable fail_success nofail_success Overall_success pc and PDIV are not sufficient to get high classification accuracy Neighbors Used in Classification [#] Good? Bad PD 9 PD 6 6

66 PD Lab Data - Cluster Variable Analysis PD Lab Data - Cluster Variable Analysis Cluster No. Feature Name Pos. Phase Range [deg] Pos. Mean Phase [deg] Pos. Qmax [pc] Neg. Qmax [pc] Neg. Qmean [pc] Pos. Qmean [pc] 3 Pos. Mean Energy [pc*v] Pos. Max Energy [pc*v] Neg. Max Energy [pc*v] 6 Neg. Mean Energy [pc*v] 4 Neg. Phase Range [deg] Neg. Mean Phase [deg] D Mean Energy Ratio 7 Nw [pulses/cycle] % Similarity Level a 3b Partial Discharge Diagnostic Features PD PD Similarity Level [%] Pos. Phase Range [deg] Pos. Mean Phase [deg] Pos. Qmax [pc] Neg. Qmax [pc] Neg. Qmean [pc] Pos. Qmean [pc] Pos. Mean Energy [pc*kv] Pos. Max Energy [pc*kv] Neg. Max Energy [pc*kv] Neg. Mean Energy [pc*kv] Neg. Phase Range [deg] Neg. Mean Phase [deg] D Mean Energy Ratio Nw [pulses/cycle]. Outline QUESTIONS NEETRAC Overview CDFI Background/Overview Cable System Failure Process SAGE Concept Case Study: Roswell Diagnostic Accuracies Diagnostic Testing Technologies Accuracies Really Matter The Things We Know Now That We Did Not Know Before Selecting a Diagnostic Testing Technology Summary 63 64

67 KBS Selecting the right diagnostic is not easy. Selecting a Diagnostic Technology Knowledge-Based System No one diagnostic covers everything. How you measure is influenced by what you do with the results. The KBS captures the experience and knowledge of people who have been operating in the field Selecting a Diagnostic Technology 6 Selecting a Diagnostic Technology 66 Knowledge Based Systems Knowledge-Based Systems are computer systems that are programmed to imitate human problem-solving. Extruded Cable Diagnostics Uses a combination of artificial intelligence and reference to a database of knowledge on a particular subject. KBS are generally classified into: Expert Systems Case Based Reasoning Fuzzy Logic Based Systems Neural Networks Selecting a Diagnostic Technology Selecting a Diagnostic Technology 67

68 KBS Example Selecting a Diagnostic Technology 69 Short Listing of Diagnostic Approaches Experts Recommending a Diagnostic Technique (%) Impact of Remedial Action Hybrid Cable System Most service failures occur in Accessories Usual remediation is by replacement of cable sections System Component Portion [%] Service Failure Rate Age [yrs] PE 33 Medium - 3 EPR 4 Low - Paper High 4 - Selecting a Diagnostic Technology 7 RECOMMENDED BY MOST EXPERTS RECOMMENDED BY FEWEST EXPERTS Discharge Monitored Withstand Simple Withstand Dielectric Discharge Historical Data Simple Withstand Monitored Withstand Simple Withstand Selecting a Diagnostic Technology Hybrid Cable System Most Recommended Expert Recommendation (%) Dielectric Discharge History & TDR Monitored W ithstand Simple Withstand Dielectric Discharge History & TDR Monitored W ithstand Simple Withstand Dielectric Discharge History History & & TDR Monitored Monitored Withstand Withstand Simple Simple Withstand Withstand Replace Replace Accessories Accessories Replace Replace Segment Segment Replace Small Section Selecting a Diagnostic Technology

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