Rental and O wner- Occupied Housing Demand, Rolf Pendall Urban Institute

Transcription

1 Rental and O wner- Occupied Housing Demand, Rolf Pendall Urban Institute Middle-class housing on Grove Avenue: / en.m.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ West_Hill,_Albany,_New_York#/ media / File%3AAlbany_Houses.jpg UpstateNYer CC BY-SA 3.0 "Cairo Apartment Building - W ashington, D.C." by AgnosticPreachersKid - Own work. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons - File:Cairo_Apartment_Building_-_W ashington,_d.c..jpg

2 Presentation outline A few orientation slides: Demographic changes driving housing demand A long look back: H eadship and homeownership since the early 1900s Future homeownership and headship: H ow our growing, aging, diverse population will fuel substantial demand for housing, especially rentals

3 Population, : Despite 16 million fewer whites, all other groups fuel increase of 100 million Millions Two or more Asian B lack H ispanic * ** Source: U.S. Census 2014 National Population Projections * Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander ** American Indian or Alaska Native

4 4 Over 80 Million Seniors in 2040 Millions < Source: U.S. Census 2014 National Population Projections

5 5 A young, diverse population will spur continued household growth especially rental housing H ouseholds (millions) (p) 2030(p) (p) 2030(p) Other race Renters Owners Source: U.S. Census , Urban Institute Projections (p), average series. Other race includes Asians and Pacific Islanders, American Indians and Alaska Natives, people of other races, and people of two or more races.

6 6 Translating population to housing Osbornb, Housemates, Santa Bar bar a, 1603 de la Vina Street, Every occupied housing unit has a household in it Every household has a householder: The person whose name is on the lease or mortgage Headship rate: The number of householders per person, usually expressed for agespecific groups

7 7 A long look back: Household formation & homeownership since the early 1900s

8 8 For most age groups, headship peaked about % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% % Sources: Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

9 9 O ldest seniors have been gaining steadily in headship 70% 60% 50% % 30% 20% 10% 0% Sources: Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

10 10 Homeownership rate: Two eras since % 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sources: Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

11 11 Homeownership also peaked in 1980 for <55 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% % 0% Sources: Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

12 12 Senior homeownership may be starting to peak 90% 80% % 60% % 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sources: Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey 2007 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

13 Y ears of H omeownership Transitions Homeownership 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Age Birth year Sources: Decennial Censuses , extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

14 14 Looking Ahead: Demographic Change and H ousing Demand

15 15 H eadship and homeownership are like a race By U.S. Army (Flickr : 2010 Army Ten Miler Start) [CC BY 2.0 ( via Wikimedia Commons,

16 16 Y oung Adults Dominate H eadship Transitions %-point change in cohort headship 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Decade Age at beginning of decade Sources: Decennial Censuses and American Community Survey 2010, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota

17 17 Projecting Headship: Picking Past Transition Rates %-point change in cohort headship rate non- decennial transition rates, % % 20% 10% 0% Average -10% Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010.

18 18 Projecting Headship: Future transition rates 40% non- decennial transition rates, projections %-point change in cohort headship rate 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Slow Fast Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections

19 19 Projecting Homeownership: Future transition rates non- decennial transition rates, projections %-point change in cohort homeownership rate 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Slow Fast -10% Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections

20 20 W hites have early homeownership advantage %-point change in cohort homeownership rate 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Fast scenario, decennial transition rates, projections Other -10% Sources: Decennial Censuses 2000 and 2010, Urban Institute Projections

21 21 Setting the starting point: Finding 2013 cohort rates 60% non- headship rates, ACS 50% 40% % 20% 10% % Source: American Community Survey 2010 through 2013, extracted from Steven Ruggles, J. Trent Alexander, Katie Genadek, Ronald Goeken, Matthew B. Schroeder, and Matthew Sobek Integrated Public Use Microdata Series: Version 5.0 [Machine-readable database]. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota.

22 22 Setting the starting point: Adjusting ACS to Census Decennial Census ACS HVS Overall homeownership rate 70% 65% 60% 66% 65% Sources: Decennial Censuses, Housing V acancy Survey, and American Community Survey.

23 23 Projecting H omeownership: Transitions Average of fast and slow scenarios % Homeownership 60% 40% 20% 0% Age in Other Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

24 24 Adding it up: H ouseholds by race & age, Average of fast and slow scenarios Other Other Other Millions < Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

25 25 Change in households by race and age, Millions Average of fast and slow scenarios <45 Total Other Other 2010s 2020s Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

26 26 Homeowners by race and age, Millions Average of fast and slow scenarios Other Other <45 Other Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

27 27 Change in homeowners by race and age, Millions <45 Total -6.0 Other Other 2010s 2020s Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

28 28 By t he 2020s, s, blacks, Asians, and ot her nonwhites will account for all growth in homeownership Assumes average between the high and low scenarios 60% Percent change in homeowners by race/ ethnicity 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% H ispanic O ther B lack W hite H ispanic O ther B lack W hite H ispanic O ther B lack W hite H ispanic O ther B lack -10% Source: U.S. Census , Urban Institute projections.

29 29 Renters by race and age, Millions Other Other Other < Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

30 30 Change in renters by race and age, Millions <45 Total Other Other 2010s 2020s Sources: Decennial Census 2010, Urban Institute Projections

31 31 M apping America s Futures: Local demographics, housing markets, and fair housing Projected population change,

32 32