Prince William County
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1 Prince William County Quarterly Population Estimate Methods October 2016 Department of Information Technology Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Division
2 WHY THE ESTIMATE IS HIGHER From Quarter 3 in 2016 going forward, the Prince William County quarterly population, housing unit, and household estimates will be performed based on the following updated data: Premise address data (all structure addresses in the county) maintained by the Department of Technology s GIS Division. U.S. Census housing occupancy rate (OCCRATE) data, broken down by housing type (SFD: Single-Family Detached, SFA: Single-Family Attached, and MFA: Multi-Family Attached). U.S. Census average household size (AVHHS) data, broken down by housing type (SFD: Single-Family Detached, SFA: Single-Family Attached, and MFA: Multi-Family Attached).
3 OLD & NEW ESTIMATES The population estimate DIFFERS DRAMATICALLY FROM PREVIOUS ESTIMATES due to the updates. However, accuracy and currency are most important when making such estimates. The table below illustrates the differences: Q (June 30 th ) Q (Sept. 30 th ) Population 434, ,049 Housing Units 148, ,934 Households 130, ,869 Households were reported based on 2010 Census data, not customized estimates PWC Population Forecasts (COG Round 9.0): 2020: 464, : 519, : 556,904 Notes: Q2 Quarter 2 Q3 Quarter 3
4 NEW OCCUPANCY RATES The housing occupancy rates used to calculate the population and household estimates were updated to reflect current data, which YIELDED HIGHER VALUES. Two customized estimates were combined to reach the final estimate: PUMS 2014 data and Census Blocks Used for Q (June 30 th ) Used for Q (Sept. 30 th ) Census PUMS Data YR Census Block Est: 2010 Census Adjusted to: ACS YR County-Wide Mean (95.56 %) Single-Family Detached: % % % % % Single-Family Attached: % % % % % Multi-Family Attached: % % % % % Mean: % % % % % Notes: Q2 Quarter 2 PUMS Public Use Microdata Sample ACS American Community Survey mean
5 NEW AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZES The average household sizes used to calculate the population and household estimates were updated to reflect current data, which yielded SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES. Two customized estimates were combined to reach the final estimate: PUMS 2014 data and Census Blocks Used for Q (June 30 th ) Used for Q (Sept. 30 th ) Census PUMS Data YR Census Block Est: 2010 Census Adjusted to: ACS YR County-Wide Mean (3.150) Single-Family Detached: Single-Family Attached: Multi-Family Attached: Mean: Notes: Q2 Quarter 2 PUMS Public Use Microdata Sample ACS American Community Survey mean
6 WHERE THE ESTIMATE FITS 650, Q2: 434,183 Orange Line: Logarithmic Growth Q3 Blue Line: Weldon Cooper Center Projections Gray Line: Linear Growth Model Other Estimates: -Weldon Cooper Center: 443,463 (2015) -PWC Economic Development (Applied Geographic Solutions, 2016): 453,761 (2016) U.S. Census Bureau; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments; Prince William County GIS Division CHART GENERATED: OCTOBER 2016
7 OLD & NEW POPULATION ESTIMATES: TIMELINE Quarter 4 (Q4) Q4 Housing Permits Continue New Estimate 2016 Quarter 3 (Q3) -New Baseline Dataset of Residential Addresses (GIS) -New Average Household Size & Occupancy Estimates Q3 Housing Permits New Population Estimate Quarter 2 (Q2) Q2 Housing Permits New Population Estimate Quarter 1 (Q1) Q1 Housing Permits New Population Estimate Quarter 4 (Q4) Q4 Housing Permits New Population Estimate 2011 Quarter 3 (Q3) Quarter 2 (Q2) Q3 Housing Permits Q2 Housing Permits New Population Estimate New Population Estimate Quarter 1 (Q1) Q1 Housing Permits New Population Estimate DECENNIAL CENSUS (2010, Summary File 1, 100% Data)
8 VISUALIZATION OF HOUSING UNIT TYPES IN PRINCE WILLIAM COUNTY Occupied residential premise addresses by housing unit type: Notes: Symbols on the map are exaggerated to emphasize the distribution of housing unit types. This map does not communicate population density.
9 METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW GIS Premise Address Database (updated quarterly with new housing permits listed on EnerGov) New Housing Unit Occupancy Rate Estimate OCCRATE AVHHS New Average Household Size Estimate Summarized by housing unit type Multi-Family: Apartments & Multi-family attached Single-Family Attached Single-Family Detached includes Mobile Home Parks Households calculated based on occupancy rates (housing units occupancy rate) Population calculated based on households & average household sizes (households average household size) Group Quarters Population Total Population with Group Quarters
10 METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW An attempt to summarize the new estimate process using expressions (Note: conventional symbols are not used in the expression language. Read variable definitions first) a Single-family detached unit (SFD), b Single-family attached unit (SFA), c Multi-family attached unit (MFA) UT abc Housing unit type totals from premise address database SFD (a), SFA (b), MFA (c) PUMa xy b xy c xy Census PWC PUMAs average household size estimate (x) & occupancy estimate (y) CENa xy b xy c xy Census 2010 SF1 tabulation block household size estimate (x) & occupancy estimate (y) ACSa xy b xy c xy Census ACS household size estimate (x) & occupancy estimate (y) for entire county PHU abc A given block s percent of housing unit type (a, b, or c) sample total PE Population Estimate GQE Group quarters population estimate for entire county M Mean Summation PCESTa xy b xy c xy M of PUMESTa xy b xy c xy & CENESTa xy b xy c xy PUMESTa xy b xy c xy (PUMa xy b xy c xy PHU abc ) CENESTa xy b xy c xy M of (CENa xy b xy c xy PHU) & (CENa xy b xy c xy PHU) adjusted to ACSa xy b xy c xy PE ((UT abc PCESTa x b x c x ) (PCESTa y b y c y )) + GQE
11 CENSUS TABULATION BLOCKS: 2010 Data from the 2010 Census at the tabulation block level (smallest unit of analysis) played a role in calculating the new occupancy rates and average household sizes to yield a new population estimate
12 DETAILED METHODOLOGY Documenting the calculations of the new housing occupancy rates and average household sizes: 1. Average Household Size, Census Tabulation Block Calculations using Census 2010 data, ADJUSTED to the American Community Survey (ACS) county-wide average household size value 2. Housing Occupancy Rates, Census Tabulation Block Calculations using Census 2010 data, ADJUSTED to the American Community Survey (ACS) county-wide occupancy rate value 3. Average Household Size AND Housing Occupancy Rate estimates using Year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) estimates.
13 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE: CENSUS BLOCK ESTIMATE AVHHS of Census Block with 100% SFD AVHHS of Census Block with 100% SFA AVHHS of Census Block with 100% MFA Block s Total Units / Total SFD HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total SFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total MFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Census Blocks in PWC with Housing Units (3,704) that contain: 100% SFD units: 1,728 (59,540 units) 100% SFA units: 377 (13,717 units) 100% MFA units: 144 (10,853 units) SFD AVHHS Weight SFA AVHHS Weight MFA AVHHS Weight Example: Weighted AVHHS average for SFA units in PWC Census Block 564 : AVHHS (2.63) (16 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Census Block 1842 : AVHHS (4.14) (143 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Weighted Mean AVHHS: SFD: SFA: MFA: Sum of weights
14 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE: CENSUS BLOCK ESTIMATE ADJUSTED to Census ACS Overall AVHHS for PWC AVHHS of Census Block with 100% SFD AVHHS of Census Block with 100% SFA AVHHS of Census Block with 100% MFA Block s Total Units / Total SFD HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total SFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total MFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Census Blocks in PWC with Housing Units (3,704) that contain: 100% SFD units: 1,728 (59,540 units) 100% SFA units: 377 (13,717 units) 100% MFA units: 144 (10,853 units) SFD AVHHS Weight SFA AVHHS Weight MFA AVHHS Weight Example: Weighted AVHHS average for SFA units in PWC Census Block 564 : AVHHS (2.63) (16 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Census Block 1842 : AVHHS (4.14) (143 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Weighted Mean AVHHS: SFD: SFA: MFA: Mean Census ACS YR AVHHS for PWC: Mean Difference: 0.253: ACS is 8.73% higher Adjusted MEAN AVHHS: SFD: SFA: MFA: 2.503
15 AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD SIZE: CENSUS BLOCK ESTIMATE MEAN Weighted Mean AVHHS: SFD: SFA: MFA: Adjusted Weighted Mean AVHHS: SFD: SFA: MFA: Census Block Final Estimate: SFD: SFA: MFA: 2.402
16 HOUSING OCCUPANCY RATES: CENSUS BLOCK ESTIMATE OCCRATE of Census Block with 100% SFD OCCRATE of Census Block with 100% SFA OCCRATE of Census Block with 100% MFA Block s Total Units / Total SFD HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total SFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total MFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Census Blocks in PWC with Housing Units (3,704) that contain: 100% SFD units: 1,728 (59,540 units) 100% SFA units: 377 (13,717 units) 100% MFA units: 144 (10,853 units) SFD OCCRATE Weight SFA OCCRATE Weight MFA OCCRATE Weight Example: Weighted OCCRATE average for SFA units in PWC Census Block 564 : OCCRATE (96.118) (30 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Census Block 1842 : OCCRATE (93.455) (275 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Weighted Mean AVHHS: SFD: SFA: MFA: Sum of weights
17 HOUSING OCCUPANCY RATES: CENSUS BLOCK ESTIMATE ADJUSTED to Census ACS Overall OCCRATE for PWC OCCRATE of Census Block with 100% SFD OCCRATE of Census Block with 100% SFA OCCRATE of Census Block with 100% MFA Block s Total Units / Total SFD HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total SFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Block s Total Units / Total MFA HU in PWC that are 100% of Census Block Total Example: Weighted OCCRATE average for SFA units in PWC Census Blocks in PWC with Housing Units (3,704) that contain: 100% SFD units: 1,728 (59,540 units) 100% SFA units: 377 (13,717 units) 100% MFA units: 144 (10,853 units) SFD OCCRATE Weight SFA OCCRATE Weight MFA OCCRATE Weight Census Block 564 : OCCRATE (96.118) (30 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Census Block 1842 : OCCRATE (93.455) (257 HU / 13,717 SFA in PWC) Weighted Mean OCCRATE: SFD: SFA: MFA: Mean Census ACS YR OCCRATE for PWC: Mean Difference: 0.425: ACS is.45% higher Adjusted MEAN OCCRATE: SFD: SFA: MFA:
18 HOUSING OCCUPANCY RATES: CENSUS BLOCK ESTIMATE MEAN Weighted Mean OCCRATE: SFD: SFA: MFA: Adjusted Weighted Mean OCCRATE: SFD: SFA: MFA: Census Block Final Estimate: SFD: SFA: MFA:
19 ESTIMATES USING PUBLIC USE MICRODATA SAMPLE (PUMS) A similar procedure was implemented for PUMS (U.S. Census). Sample areas in the PUMS are called Public Use Microdata Areas (PUMAs). PUMAs & PUMA are located in PWC. 1,677 data samples, each with a count of people. Weight of Housing Unit People Sample Weight Housing Type 01 Mobile home or trailer 02 One-family house detached 03 One-family house attached 04 2 Apartments Apartments Apartments Apartments Apartments or more apartments 10 Boat, RV, van, etc. Weight the weights by housing type: (NP(WGTP/Total of Housing Type). Sum weights by housing type to yield weighted mean of AVHHS by housing type (01,02 SFD; 03 SFA; MFA)
20 PUMAs PUMA Prince William County (North & West)--Linton Hall & Gainesville PUMA Prince William County (Southeast)--Dale City, Lake Ridge & Woodbridge PUMA not included in calculations of estimates because it encompasses Manassas & Manassas Park
21 PUMAs Detail of PUMA Prince William County (Southeast)--Dale City, Lake Ridge & Woodbridge
22 COMBINED: CENSUS BLOCKS & PUMS ESTIMATES OCCRATE MEAN Census Block Estimates: SFD: SFA: MFA: PUMS Estimates: SFD: SFA: MFA: FINAL RATES: SFD: SFA: MFA: AVHHS MEAN Census Block Estimates: SFD: SFA: MFA: PUMS Estimates: SFD: SFA: MFA: FINAL RATES: SFD: SFA: MFA: 2.228
23 KEEPING THE ESTIMATES UP-TO-DATE: The county-wide ADJUSTMENT VALUES used for the calculation of housing unit occupancy rates and average household sizes for quarterly population estimates will be updated annually with the American Community Survey and Public Use Microdata 5- Year Estimate releases. The Census Tabulation Block data quarterly population estimates will be updated each decade with the release of decennial census data (Next update: 2021). The premise address database will be updated manually each quarter based on occupancy permits posted on EnerGov over the previous quarter. Occupancy and new construction are updated semi-annually or annually by GIS Division. The GIS Division s extensive database of structure (premise) addresses in the county will be used as the baseline dataset for population estimates from this point forward.
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