Fairfax County: Five Major Forces Shaping Its Economic Evolution

Transcription

1 Fairfax County: Five Major Forces Shaping Its Economic Evolution Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D. The Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor Director, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute Schar School of Policy and Government George Mason University September 2, 217 The Washington Metropolitan Area from The International Space Station, January 2, 213 1

2 1. The Region s geography, geology and historic development pattern Washington Region 2

3 Washington Region Population and Federal Employment Growth In the Washington Area, 18-2 Years DC Population Metro Area Federal Employees 18 8,144 63,653* 131** ,8 141,215* 2,199** ,7 23,18* 6,222** , ,65* 2,834** , ,198* 68,51** ,91 967,985* 133,645** ,178 1,452,349* 214,77** ,333 3,426,648* 364,697** ,9 4,157,327* 368,12** 2 572,59 4,837,428* 326,8** 21 61,723 5,636,232* 38,268** ,228 6,97,684* 363,952** Source: Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics QCEW, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU * DC, Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Montgomery, Prince George s, ** DC only 3

4 Thousands Population Growth by Decade Washington MSA s 1s 2s 3s 4s 5s 6s 7s 8s 9s s Source: Census Bureau, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Thousands 3 25 Population in the Washington MSA By Sub-State Area, Northern Virginia Suburban MD D.C Source: Census Bureau, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 4

5 (s) Growth in Jobs, DC Suburban Maryland Northern Virginia Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Growth in Jobs, (s) Suburban Maryland +4.6 Northern Virginia DC Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 5

6 Percent of GRP Washington Region Economy % 45% 4% 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% D.C. 1% Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 2. Growth of the Washington Region as the Capital of the Free World 6

7 Federal Employment in the Washington Region, , 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Federal Employment in the Washington Region, (s) 4 35 Eisenhower Kennedy Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush 1 Clinton Bush 2 Obama Johnson Ford Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 7

8 ($s Billions) Federal Procurement in the Washington Region, TOTAL = $1,35.1 Billion Source: US Census, Consolidated Federal Funds Report and USAspending.gov, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Suburbanization and Changes in Where People Live and Work 8

9 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, - Population in Fairfax County* to 216: +6,233.9% 18,58 48, 285, 488, 626, 848, 1,117, 1,2, Source: Census Bureau Decennial Census (Forstall, 1995), 216 Population Estimates, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1,177, 216 Jobs in Fairfax County*, ,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 9

10 Share of Washington Region Jobs in Fairfax County*, % 22% 2% 18% 16% 14% 12% 1% 9% 8% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 22% 21% 6% 5% Cumulative Job Growth Fairfax County* and the Washington Region, % 4% Fairfax County* 3% 2% 1% Washington Region 155.5% % Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 1

11 Home Location of Workers Who Work in Fairfax County, 22 Source: LEHD, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Home Location of Workers Who Work in Fairfax County, 214 Source: LEHD, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 11

12 4. The Changing Structure of the Washington Region s economy 5 Changing Job Patterns Washington Metro Area, (Percent of Total) Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 12

13 Employed Residents in Fairfax* County, Employed Residents Change # % Farm** 2,74 2,15 1, , % Non-Farm** 7,49 12,224 31, ,58 616,9 8,739.% Total 9,753 14,239 32, ,37 614,284 6,298.4% Farm as % of Total 27.7% 14.2% 4.9%.2% pct pts % Source: Census Bureau Decennial Census, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU ** Farm includes Agriculture, Natural Resources and Fishing Residents Per At-Place Job Fairfax County* Forecast Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 13

14 Fairfax County Gross County Product as Percent of Regional Gross Regional Product Forecast Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 5. Globalization, Technology, and the Rise of the Knowledge-Based Economy 14

15 The Washington Region s Advanced Industrial Clusters Media & Information Services Business & Leisure Travel Services Advocacy Services Information & Communications Technology Services Science & Security Technology Services Business & Financial Services Bio & Health Technology Services The Washington Region s Advanced Industrial Clusters Job Growth Forecast Clusters Job Forecast Low % High % Advocacy Services 122, , Info & Comm. Tech 213, , Sci & Security Tech 135, , Bio & Health Tech 58, , Business & Fin. Serv. 218, , Media & Info Services 36, , Business & Leisure T. 87, , All Clusters 872, ,5 2.9 All Jobs in WMA 3,92, ,42, Source: Inforum, University of Maryland, December Reflects narrower definition used in QCEW jobs data 15

16 Tech-Oriented Employment as Share of Total Employment 25% Washington Region Fairfax County 22.2% 2% 15% 13.% 12.3% 1% 8.2% 5% % Source: Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU Employment Growth in Fairfax as Percent of Region % 45.% 4.% 35.% 3.% 25.% 2.% 15.% 1.% 5.%.% 23.9% All Jobs Sources: Quarterly Census of Earnings and Wages, The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU 44.7% Tech-Oriented Jobs 16

17 Local Serving Activities 34.8% Non-Local Serving Business 12.% The Changing Structure of the Washington Region Economy Other Federal 1.7% Total Federal 39.8% Fed Wages & Salaries 1.% Procurement 19.1% Non-Local Serving Business 19.1% Local Serving Activities 38.3% Other Federal 7.7% Total Federal 27.2% Fed Wages & Salaries 6.7% Procurement 12.8% Source: The Stephen S. Fuller Institute at the Schar School, GMU; Forecast January 217 Thank You & Questions For monthly reports on the Washington region s economic performance go to: sfullerinstitute.gmu.edu 17